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巴菲特交棒演讲,5小时直言不讳谈关税、创纪录现金及未来等︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-05-06 07:33
编者按 沃伦·巴菲特精神矍铄。 拄着拐杖,一身正装地进入伯克希尔股东大会的现场。在开始演讲前,他还把桌前最爱的两听可口可乐特意放在话筒前面醒目位置,并举起右掌放在额头 上远眺了下他的盛大舞台。 满满当当的会场,比任何一届都要人多。 巴菲特开场说,这是他第60次参加的会议,应该是他迄今为止规模最大、最好的一次。"我们在各个方面都创下了纪录"。 只是在5小时问答最后,巴菲特透露说,我现在想借这个机会,提前和大家谈一件事。 "现在是格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)应该在年底正式接任伯克希尔首席执行官的时候了。我计划在明天的董事会上提出这个建议。我相信董事会会全票支 持这个决定。" 巴菲特紧接着明确表示,他不会卖出任何一股伯克希尔的股票,因为在阿贝尔的领导下,"伯克希尔的前景会比我自己领导时更好"。 "当然,将来有可能出现一个可以大量投资的机会。如果那一刻到来,我仍可能会出来出点主意。" 伴随这个消息透露并宣告股东会结束时,全场响起了经久不息的掌声……是的,经久不息,以至于巴菲特不得不补充一句话来回应"安可":"大家的反应可 以有两种解读,但我就当是'惊喜'好了。谢谢大家。" 显然,现场的掌声很复杂,感激、感动、 ...
相信复利力量,安信基金张明的“慢富道”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 00:41
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift in investor mindset from "seeking quick gains" to "seeking stability," highlighting the importance of long-term investment and the power of compounding returns [1] - Zhang Ming, a fund manager at Anxin Fund, has consistently achieved superior investment performance over the past seven years, focusing on a "slow and steady" investment approach [1][5] Performance Summary - Anxin Enterprise Value Selection has outperformed the CSI 300 Index and the CSI A500 Index for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, even during market downturns [1][17] - As of March 31, 2025, the fund has delivered a cumulative return of 125.97% and an annualized return of nearly 11% since Zhang Ming took over management [5][4] Investment Philosophy - Zhang Ming is a strong proponent of value investing, adhering to the principle of buying good companies at favorable prices and holding them for the long term [6][8] - His investment strategy involves a low turnover rate, emphasizing that true returns come from the growth of a company's intrinsic value over time [6] Stock Selection Criteria - Zhang Ming employs a PB-ROE model to identify high-quality companies with low price-to-book ratios and high return on equity, focusing on sectors that provide strong ROE [8][9] - His portfolio demonstrates a clear advantage of "low PB + high ROE," indicating a focus on undervalued stocks with solid profitability [9] Risk Management and Resilience - The fund has shown strong drawdown control, with a maximum drawdown of 22.12% compared to the 45.42% drawdown of the broader market index during the same period [15] - In challenging market conditions in 2022 and 2023, the fund only experienced declines of 5% and 1%, respectively, showcasing its resilience [15] Future Outlook - Zhang Ming's active equity management currently stands at approximately 3.5 billion, indicating potential for growth in fund size [16] - A new fund, Anxin Preferred Value Mixed Fund, is set to launch, which may attract attention given Zhang Ming's track record and investment philosophy [16]
华尔街超级马里奥加贝利:通过投资让自己的钱翻倍 你就能掌控生活
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 07:40
专题:巴菲特2025年股东大会重磅来袭 5月3日,全球投资者关注的伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会在内布拉斯加州小城奥马哈召开,今年是巴菲特股 东大会60年,新浪财经携手首席合作伙伴青花汾酒带您直击股东大会盛况。 在股东大会现场新浪财经对话华尔街"超级马里奥"、GAMCO投资公司(GAMCO Investors)创建者马 里奥·加贝利(Mario Gabelli)。马里奥在采访中向新浪财经表示:地缘政治和股市方面今年与往年相比 有很大不同,未来世界经济会有很多变化。 他建议年轻人了解"复利"概念,也就是"72法则"。如果年化收益是7%,十年后你的资产会翻倍。"考虑 如何通过投资让自己的钱翻倍,你就能控制自己的生活,掌控周围的世界。不要让别人告诉你该做什 么,至少我不会告诉你该做什么。" (新浪财经特约主持人 王天爱Ariana 实习编辑 高宇桐 发自奥马哈 北京) 以下是采访实录: 新浪财经:Gabelli先生,很高兴能和您这样一位为时代定义了投资理念的专家交流。我知道您每年都参 加这个大会,您觉得今年和往年相比,有什么不同吗? Mario Gabelli:嗯,地缘政治和股市都有很大变化。没错,事物一直在变,但也有一定 ...
股票的安全边际
雪球· 2025-04-30 08:44
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 酒金岁月 来源:雪球 大家认为的安全边际要么是买的便宜 , 要么是高股息率 , 要么是高成长性 , 其实都说了一部 分 , 但没有说到关键上 。 最好的安全边际来自于最好的生意 , 买股票就是买企业 。 茅台为什么好 , 因为他可以逆行周期 , 最差的年景依然独善其身 。 看不透这一点你会认为房 产跟白酒一样 。 招行为什么好 , 因为别的银行通过增发补充资本金时 , 他可以通过利润本身 完成内生增长 。 看不透这一点你会认为民生和招行无差异 。 买的便宜取决于企业业绩未来向上 , 不然股价可以更便宜 , 扇贝可以来回跑 。 高股息率取决 于高股息的长期性和确定性 , 这正是很多企业静态股息率超高我们敬而远之的原因 。 高成长性 取决于成长的确定性和差异性 , 无差异的高成长会迎来价格内卷 , 无确定性的高成长只能昙花 一现 。 好生意可以给人提供巨大的容错空间 , 长期的高确定性可以弥补操作上的高错误率 , 当然这也 取决于你的资金的期限和性质 。 拿短期资金做长期价投 , 这是失败的不二法门 , 加上杠杆加 速了 ...
假如年初拿一万块钱入市,理论上一年能赚多少?你算过吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 03:42
在拿105840元在4月2日以4.76元的价格买入国芳集团就可以买222手了(同样是以1手的整倍数计),持有到4月25日以最高价14.30元卖出,资金就变成了 317460元。 在这短短的三个月时间,一万元就变成了317460元,增幅高达320%,按此理论值推算,一万元在一年时间就可以变成一千万元。吓人吧!这中间,最重要 的就是复利的作用,别小看复利,是复利放大了利润的增加。 这只是理论推理,实际上也有人能做到,那就是你要能准确捕捉到市场里的这些股票的上涨时间,下跌时间,我举例的三个股票在时间衔接上,股价上涨上 都有 大家好!今年A股又热闹起来,开户数增加,数值创新高,股市新闻又多了起来,前几天网上传出一个新闻,河南一个股民说150万入市,赚了6000万,并 且长期持有一只股,还说日亏1000万的事也有过,其也解释说中途也加过仓,增加了1000万资金。还有最近又一个新闻,一个网红停更了,说改炒股了,日 赚100万,目标是赚480万。我们姑且不去论证其真伪,就炒股这事来说说,假如一万元入市,按最正确的操作,理论上来看,到底能赚多少钱? 我拿今年有代表的三只个股(光线传媒,襄阳轴承,国芳集团)来推理,从开年到现在 ...
你能走多远,取决于什么?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-04-24 03:27
今天这篇⽂章,想与⼤家共同探讨⼀个话题:⼀个⼈能⾛多远,取决于什么? 我想从⾃⼰⾝边的⼏个真实案例谈起。 案例⼀:来⾃伦敦集团总部的董事总经理 A 案例⼆:新加坡实习⽣ B B 是新加坡⼈,曾在本⼈公司实习过六个⽉。他出⾝于新加坡普通组屋家庭,兄弟三⼈,成绩⼀般,初中毕业后进⼊新加坡⼀所⼤专。【注:新加坡教育分 流机制如下:前 10% 的学⽣进⼊直通⻋中学(免中考,初⾼连读);中考成绩前 20% 进⼊⾼中;其余约 50% 进⼊⼤专;剩下 20% 进职校。】 B 没有就此⽌步,⽽是从⼤专努⼒申请并成功进⼊南洋理⼯⼤学,主修物理(该校分数线最低专业)。在⼤四期间,他来到我公司实习。起初对⾦融投资⼀ ⽆所知,但他勤奋踏实,每天第⼀个到、最后⼀个⾛,完成任务⼀丝不苟,深受同事好评。实习结束后,他也很快从南洋理⼯⼤学毕业,然后进了⼀家新加 坡的基⾦公司。后来他特地发信给我们,告诉我如果没有这段实习经历,以他的成绩和物理专业背景,完全不可能进⼊基⾦公司。在基⾦公司⼯作两年后, B 跳槽去了德意志银⾏投⾏部。德银的投⾏部是⾮常难进的,是很多顶尖⼤学⾦融专业学⽣梦寐以求的职位。 案例三:我⾃⼰ 与 A 和 B 不同,我的起点 ...
为什么很多人投资赚不到钱?
雪球· 2025-03-28 07:53
长按即可参与 市场上赚快钱的方法,基本都像买彩票。有人运气好,短期暴富,但更多人连本金都保不住。你 可能听说过身边某个朋友靠炒股暴赚,但你可能没听说,他后来又亏回去了,还搭上了几年积 蓄。 投资不是赌博,不能靠运气,得靠方法。 今天我们就来聊聊,普通人该怎么投,才能真的赚到钱。 01 "快"和"对",哪个更重要? 你见过高速倒车的吗? 很多人一提到投资,就想着"快速翻倍""一年赚100%",但现实往往是亏得怀疑人生。 为什么? 因为他们在一开始就走错了方向。 投资也是一样,很多人一开始就想"快",但没有想"对",结果就是开得越快,摔得越惨。 正确的做法是,先选对方向,再考虑速度。市场上的投资机会有很多,但真正能长期赚钱的,往 往是那些稳定增长的资产,而不是那些暴涨暴跌的投机品种。 我们来看两个真实案例: ✅ 案例1:长期稳健投资——巴菲特的持股策略 沃伦·巴菲特是世界上最成功的投资者之一。他的投资哲学很简单: 长期持有优质资产 。 例如,他1988年买入可口可乐的股票,并长期持有,几十年间,这笔投资带来了数十倍的回报。 他一直强调: "投资的关键是找到伟大的企业,并持有它们。" 他的年均收益率约20%,远高于 ...
向达尔文学习投资 | 高毅读书会
高毅资产管理· 2025-03-28 01:46
来 源 | 中 译 出 版 社 预 计 阅 读 时 间:1 0 分 钟 01 规避重大风险,不要亏损 卓越的投资者,应该是卓越的拒绝者。 作为长期主义者,普拉萨德首先便强调了不亏钱的重要性——虽然没有人会以亏钱为目标进行投资,但如 同生活中大多数表面上看似简单的事情一样,"不亏钱"说起来容易,做起来难。 而普拉萨德一开始便建议 投资者"不要急着下手投资",因为学习何时避免投资的技巧,要比学习"如何投资"更难,也更加重要。 就像在自然界中,所有生物都会把生存放在第一位一样,普拉萨德也选择先树立起"拒绝者"的角色,即使因 此错过高额获利机会,也不会懊恼。具体而言,投资者应避免:一做了不该做的事(买入劣质企业),二 该做的事没有做(错过优秀企业)。如: 由于市面上的优质投资其实寥寥无几,通过优先考虑风险规避,投资者可以保护他们的资本并增加他们获 得长期成功的机会。这种方法可能意味着错过一些潜在的盈利机会(如"特斯拉" ),但它大大降低了灾难 性损失的可能性。 在投 资世界中,如何找到那些能够持续成长、穿越周期的优质企业?在探索这一问题时,印度投资人 普拉克·普拉萨德(Prakash Prasad)在《我从达尔文那里 ...
如何从100万到1000万?
集思录· 2025-03-26 15:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of wealth accumulation from 1 million to 10 million, emphasizing the importance of investment strategies in real estate and the stock market, while highlighting the challenges and opportunities in each sector [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Real estate was once the best investment option due to rapid urbanization and population growth, but the current market presents risks, especially for new investors who may become "back holders" [1][2]. - The stock market is seen as a more reliable long-term investment, with historical annualized returns of 8.4% for U.S. stocks and 6.5% for China's CSI 300 ETF from 2013 to 2024 [1][2]. - A calculation shows that with a 6.5% annual return and an additional investment of 50,000 per year, it would take 29 years to reach 10 million, while an 8% return would shorten this to under 25 years [2]. Group 2: Personal Experience and Insights - The author shares personal investment experiences, focusing on low-cost purchases of leading stocks and ETFs in sectors like consumer goods and healthcare, achieving an annualized return of around 11% [2][3]. - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Chinese stock market, suggesting that strategic buying during downturns can yield significant returns [2][3]. - The author aims to maintain a 10% annualized return to reach the 10 million target in approximately 9 years [2]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Analysis - The current real estate market is described as favorable for investors due to low down payments and high leverage, with some cities offering rental income that exceeds loan interest [3][4]. - The article discusses the potential for significant profits if real estate prices double over ten years, while also addressing the risks of price declines and the lack of forced liquidation policies in mainland banks [3][4]. - Historical examples from the U.S., Japan, and Hong Kong are cited to illustrate that real estate values can recover over time, even after significant downturns [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Products and Leverage - The article suggests that leveraged financial products, such as margin trading and real estate loans, can be advantageous if there are no forced liquidation policies in place [4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding risk and reward dynamics in leveraged investments, suggesting that the absence of forced liquidation can provide a safety net for investors [4].
投资或许可以财务自由,前提是你必须学会乘法思维
集思录· 2025-03-24 14:42
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition from additive wealth accumulation to multiplicative strategies for achieving significant financial growth, highlighting the importance of asset reallocation and management skills in this process [1][2][3]. Group 1: Wealth Accumulation Strategies - Relying solely on additive methods, such as accumulating properties and savings, limits wealth potential, making it difficult to reach higher financial goals [1]. - The author illustrates that moving from 10 million to 30 million through multiplication is more efficient than through addition, as it leverages the power of compounding [2]. - The focus should be on optimizing asset allocation by shifting from low-efficiency to high-efficiency assets, which can enhance overall returns [2][3]. Group 2: Management and Professionalism - Effective management is crucial for scaling wealth; without it, attempts to expand can lead to significant risks [3]. - The article stresses the importance of having capable individuals manage wealth, as this is essential for sustained growth and risk mitigation [3]. Group 3: Financial Freedom and Lifestyle - Achieving a net worth of 30 million signifies a level of financial freedom where individuals can afford to live comfortably without the pressure of employment responsibilities [4]. - As wealth increases, the impact of household expenses on wealth accumulation diminishes, allowing for improved lifestyle choices and consumption patterns [5]. Group 4: Psychological Milestones - Reaching 50 million is described as a psychological milestone, making the concept of achieving a billion more tangible and attainable [5]. - The author reflects on the emotional significance of wealth milestones and the shift in mindset that accompanies them [5]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - The article discusses the evolution of investment philosophy from seeking absolute returns to focusing on relative performance against market averages [6][7]. - It highlights the importance of understanding the sources of income and the rationale behind investment decisions to reduce risks [7]. Group 6: Long-term Perspective - The narrative emphasizes the paradox of low-risk investing, where substantial wealth can be built over time, despite the challenges of aging and market fluctuations [9]. - The author advocates for a mindset shift towards valuing the investment journey and the lessons learned along the way, rather than just the financial outcomes [9][10].