【导读】"股债跷跷板"效应凸显，短期或呈现震荡磨顶行情，中长期债券市场仍会回归基本 面和资金面定价 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张燕北 近期股市持续走高，债市却同步经历显著调整。对于本轮债市下跌，受访公募机构及业内人 士分析认为，背后是多重因素共同作用的结果：宏观经济预期变化、短期货币政策维持不降 息基调、股市走强后风险偏好提升、债市配置资金被分流等，其中市场情绪的催化是主导性 因素。 展望后续债市走向，机构普遍认为，利率连续大幅上行的概率较低，短期内债市大概率呈 现"磨顶"行情，现阶段可配置中短端票息类资产。从中长期维度看，债券市场定价终将回归 基本面与资金面逻辑。 本轮调整主要由情绪催化所致 债基赎回整体可控 自7月初以来，10年期国债到期收益率上行至1.78%，累计涨幅达8.2%；长债调整更为显 著，30年期国债到期收益率上行至2.08%，累计涨幅达11.46%。在业内看来，本轮债券市 场调整的主要原因在于市场情绪变化下资金出现分流。 长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕表示，近期"股债跷跷板"和风险偏好抬升。4月初中 美关税冲击以来，股票市场稳定修复，呈现"高收益，低波动"的反常表现，其风险收益比明 显高 ...

近期，公募基金行业高管变更频繁，又一家千亿公募发生董事长更迭。 8月23日，华宝基金公告，黄孔威因为"任职年龄原因"离任公司董事长，公司党委书记、宝信软件 （600845）原董事长夏雪松接任。 黄孔威离任华宝基金董事长 公开履历显示，夏雪松，1970年生人，中南财经大学税收专业本科，中欧国际工商学院EMBA，曾任上 海宝信软件股份有限公司副总经理兼财务总监、党委书记、总经理；2016年出任上海宝信软件股份有限 公司董事长、党委书记。2025年6月27日，上海宝信软件股份有限公司董事会收到夏雪松因工作变动辞 去董事长、董事及战略委员会主任职务的书面报告，该辞职即日生效，辞职后其不在公司担任任何职 务。随后，夏雪松出任华宝基金党委书记。 今年8月1日，中国宝武官微曾发布《蹄疾步稳持续推动效率变革｜宝武半年度工作会议子公司参会管理 者反响（五）》，华宝基金党委书记夏雪松表示，华宝基金将认真贯彻落实集团半年度工作会议精神， 进一步完善体制机制设计，并加大执行力度，做到绩效强导向，奖惩有依据，强化优胜劣汰，拓展青年 员工发展空间，挖掘后备人才；进一步完善体系建设和制度建设，优化各部门、各业务条线职责和流 程，提升管理效 ...

近期，公募基金行业高管变更频繁，又一家千亿公募发生董事长更迭。 对于此次黄孔威离任公司董事长，华宝基金表示，上述变更事项，已经华宝基金管理有限公司股东会第 33 次会议审议通 过，并按规定向中国证券监督管理委员会上海监管局备案，公司对黄孔威先生担任董事长期间为公司发展做出的贡献表 示衷心感谢。 宝信软件原董事长夏雪松接任 此次接任黄孔威担任华宝基金董事长的，是同样来自"宝武系"的夏雪松。 公开履历显示，夏雪松，1970年生人，中南财经大学税收专业本科，中欧国际工商学院EMBA，曾任上海宝信软件股份 有限公司副总经理兼财务总监、党委书记、总经理；2016年出任上海宝信软件股份有限公司董事长、党委书记。2025年6 月27日，上海宝信软件股份有限公司董事会收到夏雪松因工作变动辞去董事长、董事及战略委员会主任职务的书面报 告，该辞职即日生效，辞职后其不在公司担任任何职务。随后，夏雪松出任华宝基金党委书记。 8月23日，华宝基金公告，黄孔威因为"任职年龄原因"离任公司董事长，公司党委书记、宝信软件原董事长夏雪松接任。 黄孔威离任华宝基金董事长 公开信息显示，黄孔威自2022年7月2日开始正式担任华宝基金董事长，截至2 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond "seesaw" effect has reappeared this year, with the bond market showing an "N" - shaped trend and the curve changing from "bear - flat to bull - steep to bear - steep". The "see - stock - do - bond" trading logic may continue in the third quarter, and the bond market may remain volatile. [2][5] - The recent continuous strengthening of the equity market is due to multiple factors such as policy support, sufficient liquidity, structural opportunities, and improved market sentiment. The macro - narrative basis of the bond market may have changed, mainly driven by asset re - allocation due to changes in risk preference. [3][4] - Looking at historical data, the duration of the stock - bond "seesaw" varies. Currently, the stock is still more attractive in terms of valuation, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect Reappears 1.1 Equity Market's Continuous Strengthening - On August 18, the three major A - share indices hit new highs, with a trading volume of 2.76 trillion yuan. The rise is due to policy support (e.g., central Huijin's statement and various subsequent policies), sufficient liquidity (e.g., a 2.14 - trillion increase in non - bank deposits and a 1.1 - trillion decrease in household deposits in July, and a 71% year - on - year increase in new stock accounts in July), and structural opportunities in sectors like medicine, computing power/AI hardware, etc. [3][23][25] 1.2 Changes in the Bond Market's Macro - Narrative Basis - Since August, the bond market has been in shock adjustment, with long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates rising significantly. Although economic data in July was below expectations, the bond market was still under pressure, indicating that the current dominant logic is asset re - allocation due to risk preference changes. [31] - The driving factors for the bond market decline include the siphoning effect of the stock market (leading to fund diversion and potential redemption pressure on bond funds), the impact of the new bond interest VAT policy, and high trading congestion and emotional vulnerability in the bond market. [32][33] - In the short term, the bond market may continue to be weak and volatile, with the 10 - year Treasury yield's current phased peak around 1.80%. In the medium term, more refined trading strategies and multi - asset layouts should be considered. [35] 2. How Far Can "See - Stock - Do - Bond" Go? - Looking back at the five historical periods of the stock - strong and bond - weak "seesaw", the duration has varied. Since 2022, the duration has generally shortened. The duration is related to the policy combination and economic fundamentals. [5][36] - The current policy combination may change market expectations. The stock is still more attractive in terms of valuation, with the difference between the reciprocal of the CSI 300's P/E ratio and the 10 - year Treasury yield at about 5.5 percentage points, and the Sharpe ratio difference favoring stocks. [41][42][43] - The "see - stock - do - bond" logic may continue in the third quarter. The bond market may remain volatile, and the 10 - year Treasury yield can be gradually allocated in the 1.75% - 1.80% range, with a focus on band - trading for interest - rate bonds. [5][47]

Core Viewpoint - The current fund market is characterized by a mix of excitement and caution, with investors showing varied responses to the recent market rally, leading to both inflows and outflows in different fund categories [2][3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, yet the enthusiasm among fund investors remains muted, as evidenced by net redemptions in some existing products [2][6][12]. - Many investors are opting to redeem or take profits from equity products after recovering their initial investments, indicating a cautious approach despite the market's upward trend [6][12][18]. - A notable trend is the preference for funds focused on growth sectors, with significant net subscriptions observed in actively managed equity funds that have performed well and lack historical burdens [9][10]. Group 2: Fund Company Responses - Fund companies express a sense of being unprepared for the rapid market changes, with some admitting to a lack of readiness for the current bull market, which has caught them off guard [11][12]. - There is a recognition among fund managers that the current market rally is more stable compared to previous surges, with a desire for a slower, steadier growth to allow for better positioning and investment strategies [15][18]. - The overall sentiment among fund companies is optimistic, with hopes that the market will continue to grow at a sustainable pace, allowing for the absorption of existing capital and fostering solid growth [15][16][18]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a clear divide in investor behavior, with some actively seeking to exit positions while others are beginning to show interest in new investments, particularly in sectors like technology and innovation [6][9][14]. - The increase in inquiries about fund investments at banks indicates a growing interest among retail investors, although actual purchase volumes remain modest [14]. - The cautious approach of investors is reflected in the limited scale of new capital entering the market, with net inflows being relatively small compared to previous periods [10][16].

Core Insights - Publicly offered Fund of Funds (FOF) has achieved its best performance in five years, driven by heavy investments in equity funds, particularly in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors [1] - The shift from bond funds to equity funds has become a new growth highlight for publicly offered FOFs, with the best-performing FOF product yielding 34.28% year-to-date [1] - Over 90% of all FOFs in the market have reported positive returns this year, with the top 10 FOFs heavily investing in high-volatility equity funds while reducing allocations to bond funds and conservative balanced funds [1]

Core Insights - Publicly offered funds of funds (FOFs) have achieved their best performance in five years, primarily due to heavy investments in equity funds, particularly in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors [1] - The shift from bond funds to equity funds has become a new growth highlight for public FOFs, with over 90% of FOFs showing positive returns this year [1] - The top 10 FOFs in the market have significantly increased their allocations to high-volatility equity funds while reducing their investments in bond funds and conservative balanced funds [1] Performance Metrics - The best-performing FOF product has recorded a return of 34.28% year-to-date, a stark contrast to the best return of only 0.29% in the 2022 fiscal year [1] - The overall market performance indicates a strong recovery and positive sentiment towards equity investments among FOFs [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2% [2] - The main drivers for economic growth in the second half are expected to be diversified, with infrastructure investment and government consumption playing key roles, alongside technological innovation and green development [2][5] - The expansion of fiscal policy is seen as the primary factor influencing macroeconomic trends, emphasizing the importance of steady growth [5] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The A-share market exhibited an "N-shaped" oscillating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.76% to 3444.42 points by June 30, 2025 [6][9] - Small-cap growth stocks outperformed, with the North Securities 50 Index leading with a 39.45% increase [6] - Institutional investors maintain a positive outlook for A-shares in the second half of 2025, with a preference for growth stocks despite a current focus on high-dividend assets [10][13] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market in the first half of 2025 showed a "V-shaped" yield pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.64% and 1.9% [17][19] - The market is characterized by low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, with a consensus on the continuation of a low-rate environment [19][24] - Institutions are increasingly adopting flexible trading strategies while remaining cautious about credit risks, with a preference for high-frequency trading in government bonds [25][24] Group 4: Global Market Trends - The global capital market experienced increased volatility in the first half of 2025, with the US dollar weakening and US stock markets facing significant fluctuations [28] - There is a notable preference among asset management institutions for Hong Kong stocks over US stocks, reflecting expectations for market recovery [29] - The demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedging tools remains strong, while traditional stable assets like bank deposits and real estate are losing appeal [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in the bond market, highlighting a significant outflow from bond funds and a rising interest in "fixed income +" products amid a volatile equity market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates that over 200 billion yuan worth of various bonds were sold by fund products in just four trading days, with nearly 100 billion yuan sold on a single day, marking the largest single-day redemption since September 2022 [3]. - The total scale of public bond funds reached a historical high of 10.93 trillion yuan by the end of Q2, up from 10.07 trillion yuan at the end of Q1, reflecting an increase of 860 billion yuan [3]. - The bond market has experienced increased volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising over 5 basis points and the 30-year yield exceeding 1.9%, indicating a shift from a previous stable environment [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Fund managers express cautious optimism regarding the bond market, suggesting that while the market remains in a bull phase, there are concerns about the fragility of high leverage and long duration in a low volatility and low interest rate environment [5]. - Strategies such as a "barbell" approach, which balances coupon income and capital gains, are recommended to navigate uncertainties in the current market [5]. - The outlook for the third quarter suggests a likelihood of narrow fluctuations in interest rates, with credit bonds expected to perform better than interest rate bonds [5]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds Performance - In the context of rising equity markets, convertible bonds have gained traction, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, reflecting a 12.83% increase since April 7 [7]. - Factors contributing to the rise in convertible bonds include strong performance in small-cap stocks, low bond yields enhancing the value of convertible bonds, and a tight supply due to refinancing regulations [7]. - The investment in convertible bonds is seen as a combination of fixed income and equity options, providing opportunities for both capital appreciation and downside protection [7][8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Investment managers highlight structural opportunities in sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, suggesting that these areas may continue to perform well despite potential market corrections [8]. - The focus on small-cap themes is expected to remain active in a liquidity-rich environment, leveraging the unique characteristics of convertible bonds to capitalize on market movements [8].

Core Viewpoint - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historical high of 34.39 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with significant contributions from bond funds and a mixed performance in equity funds [1][3][4]. Fund Size Growth - As of June 30, 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 34.39 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 651.9 billion yuan from the end of May [3][4]. - The public bond fund size increased by 507.8 billion yuan in June, reaching 7.28 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date growth trend observed over four consecutive months [6][5]. Bond Fund Performance - Bond funds were the main contributors to the overall growth, with a monthly increase exceeding 500 billion yuan in June [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain bullish in the second half of the year, supported by favorable fundamentals and liquidity conditions, although there are concerns regarding high leverage and duration risks in a low volatility environment [8][7]. Equity Fund Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, leading to an increase in the size of equity funds [9]. - Stock funds and mixed funds saw increases of 148.3 billion yuan and 121.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.24% and 3.4% [10]. New Fund Issuance - In June, 110 new equity funds were established, raising a total of 51.6 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 40% of the total new fund issuance [11]. - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, driven by sectors such as AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside supportive domestic policies [11]. QDII Fund Growth - QDII funds experienced a growth of approximately 4.51%, reaching a total size of 683.7 billion yuan by the end of June, benefiting from strong inflows and favorable market conditions [12][13].