金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 31 日 期指：利多政策落地，2025 或偏强收官 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4651.3 | ↑0.26 | | 4571.9 | | | | | | IF2601 | 4643.6 | ↑0.28 | -7.68 | 383.2 | 27521 | ↑1202 | 59731 | ↑57 | | IF2602 | 4630 | ↑0.30 | -21.28 | 36 | 2596 | ↓278 | 5071 | ↑706 | | IF2603 | 4622.2 | ↑0.36 | -29.08 | 786.5 | 56756 | ↓1696 | 171595 | ↑4446 | | IF2606 | 4578 | ↑0.36 | -73.28 | ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.06% [1] - The Northbound Trading Index fell by 0.68%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3039 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,700 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as gaming, film, AI applications, and commercial aerospace concepts remained active in certain areas [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone, wind power equipment, insurance, photovoltaic equipment, and airport and shipping sectors saw the largest declines [1] ETF Movements - The mini-sized Jin Ying Gain Money Market ETF saw a notable increase of 4.28% [1] - The chemical sector performed well, with the Jianxin Fund Energy Chemical ETF, E Fund Chemical Industry ETF, and Huaxia Fund Petrochemical ETF rising by 2.16%, 2.06%, and 1.89% respectively [1] - The engineering machinery sector was active, with the GF Fund Engineering Machinery ETF increasing by 1.7% [1] - The non-ferrous sector also saw gains, with the Wanjia Fund Industrial Non-ferrous ETF rising by 2% [1] Other Notable Movements - The Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF continued to decline by 6% [1] - Gold prices fell, with the Shanghai Gold ETF and Gold ETF Fund decreasing by 1.9% and 1.89% respectively [1] - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector continued to decline, with the Hong Kong Pharmaceutical ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF by Jia Shi falling by 1.89% and 1.88% respectively [1]

30日，A股三大指数早盘低开，盘中均震荡上行多次翻红。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，上证指数微跌， 报3965.12点；深证成指涨0.49%，创业板指涨0.63%。 板块方面，人形机器人概念股午后爆发，数字货币、AI手机、短剧游戏题材表现活跃。光伏产业链回 撤，海南自贸区、离境退税、商业航天概念股出现调整。 全市交易额2.16万亿，逾3400只个股下跌。 | 14 | | w A股 | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 港股 美股 | 全球 | 商品 | 汁 三 外汇 | | | 已为您生成昨日市场智评 | | | | 查看 | | | 内地股票 它 | | | | | | | 行情 | | 资金净流入 | | 涨跌分布 | | | 上证指数 | | 深证成指 | | 科创综指 | | | 3965.12 | | 13604.07 | | 1642.58 | | | -0.16 0.00% | | +66.97 +0.49% | | +4.50 +0.27% | | | 万得全A | | 创业板指 | | 北证50 | | | 6421.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, highlighting fluctuations in major indices and sector performances, with a focus on the impact of specific themes such as digital currency and commercial aerospace on stock movements [3][4][5]. Market Performance - As of the midday session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1% to 3961.21, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.23% to 13568.09, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.06% to 3220.56 [3][4]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 101.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks declining [5]. Sector Highlights - The film and television sector saw a rebound, with notable stocks like Baidu and Huayi Brothers experiencing significant gains, driven by a total box office of 5.245 billion yuan for the 2025 New Year’s season [7]. - The commercial aerospace sector showed resilience, with stocks like China Satellite and China Satcom rising over 5%, continuing to set historical highs [9]. - Digital currency and cross-border payment sectors were active, with stocks like Cuiwei Co. and Feitian Chengxin hitting the daily limit, reflecting positive sentiment around the upcoming implementation of the new digital RMB design [10]. Commodity Market - Nickel futures on the Shanghai exchange rose by 4% to 132,580 yuan per ton, while London nickel also increased by 4% to 16,384.20 USD per ton [6]. - Lithium carbonate futures saw a significant drop of 8% to 115,780 yuan per ton, indicating volatility in the energy metals market [17]. Currency and Economic Indicators - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan with a rate of 1.40%, with 59.3 billion yuan maturing today [13]. - The RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.0348, depreciating by 17 basis points from the previous trading day [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic and corporate news. It shows that geopolitical factors are affecting the energy market, and various industries such as metals, black - series, and agriculture are experiencing different trends due to factors like policy, production, and market demand. The financial market also shows a complex situation with the divergence of stock indices and fluctuations in different asset classes. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - The US crude oil main contract rose 1.92% to $57.83 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.66% to $61.24 per barrel. Geopolitical issues and production decline in Kazakhstan drove up oil prices [5][43]. - Most London base metals declined, with LME lead and copper rising slightly, and LME tin falling 6.55% to $40010 per ton [5][43]. - Spot silver first broke through the $80 per ounce mark but then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce [6][7]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some like asphalt rising and others like pulp falling [7]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to develop new - quality productivity in a coordinated manner [9]. - Trump said the US military's strike on a Venezuelan factory reduced drug trading by 97% [9]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 9.7% [10]. - Russia set the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from the Donbass as a pre - condition for a truce [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly measures [11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The start - up rate of China's LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased [14]. - A subsidiary of Boyuan Chemical decided to shut down due to continuous losses [14]. - The expected arrival of New Zealand coniferous logs at 13 Chinese ports increased significantly [14]. - Guyana's oil production in November rose to about 894,000 barrels per day [15]. Metal Futures - Yunnan Province plans to strengthen resource - based industries [17]. - Longpan Technology will conduct production line maintenance, reducing lithium iron phosphate output [19]. - The price of high - quality and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased [19]. - UBS raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 [19]. - Environmental controls in some areas affected the aluminum market [19]. - Zinc mines in different regions had production changes [20]. - Chuanfa Longmang's projects were put into production or in trial production [20]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments increased, while China's 47 - port and 45 - port arrivals decreased [22][24]. - Hebei steel mills lowered coke prices, starting the fourth round of price cuts [24]. - Tiansteel will conduct blast furnace maintenance [25]. Agricultural Product Futures - India's domestic sugar quota for January 2026 was set at 2.2 million tons, and the market is expected to be stable [27]. - China's domestic oil mills' soybean crushing volume remained high in December [27]. - The commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil increased [27]. - US soybean export data showed changes, and Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9% [27][30]. Financial Market Finance - A - share indices were divergent, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling [32]. - Hong Kong stocks fell, with large - cap tech stocks generally declining [32]. - China's public - offering fund scale exceeded 37 trillion yuan in November [32]. - GSM, an electric mobility service provider in Vietnam, plans to list in Hong Kong [34]. Industry - The National Energy Administration emphasized the construction of charging infrastructure [35]. - The 2026 auto market growth is complex, with a possible January increase [35]. - Shenzhen proposed to adjust real - estate investment [35]. - Hong Kong's private housing prices rose in November [35]. - The price of imported GLP - 1 diet pills was halved [36]. - AI Agent is expected to be popularized in 2026 [36]. - The global memory industry's "super - cycle" is expected to last until 2027 [36]. Overseas - Trump criticized the Fed and considered suing Powell [38]. - Trump met with Zelensky, but no major announcements were made [38]. - The US government investigated large companies' DEI projects [38]. - US pending home sales rose in November [38]. - The Bank of Japan hinted at future interest - rate hikes [38]. - Most German business associations expect to lay off employees in 2026 [39]. - The ACCA will end online exams in March 2026 [39]. International Stock Markets - US stock indices fell, with AI - related stocks under pressure [40]. - European stock indices were mixed, with the German DAX and French CAC40 rising slightly, and the UK FTSE 100 falling slightly [42]. - Wall Street is optimistic about US stocks in 2026 [42]. - Intel bought back over 214.7 million shares worth $5 billion [42]. Commodities - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical factors [43]. - Most London base metals declined [43]. Bonds - China's bond market weakened, and long - term bonds were under pressure [44]. - The yield of treasury bond reverse repurchase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges rose [44]. - The US federal debt exceeded $38.5 trillion, and the buyer structure changed [46]. - US bond yields fell [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, and the central parity rate rose [47]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [47].

今年以来王府井已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月10日。 资料显示，王府井集团股份有限公司位于北京市王府井大街253号，成立日期1993年4月28日，上市日期 1994年5月6日，公司主营业务涉及商品零售和商业物业出租。主营业务收入构成为：零售85.22%，租 赁14.78%。 王府井所属申万行业为：商贸零售-一般零售-百货。所属概念板块包括：新零售、免税概念、MSCI中 国、海南自贸区、融资融券等。 12月30日，王府井盘中下跌2.04%，截至09:44，报14.90元/股，成交1.95亿元，换手率1.15%，总市值 167.47亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2924.82万元，特大单买入494.30万元，占比2.54%，卖出1656.32万元， 占比8.51%；大单买入2683.10万元，占比13.79%，卖出4445.90万元，占比22.84%。 王府井今年以来股价跌2.80%，近5个交易日跌4.91%，近20日涨1.57%，近60日涨5.23%。 分红方面，王府井A股上市后累计派现43.95亿元。近三年，累计派现4.30亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，王府井十大流通股东 ...

09:21 港股开盘丨恒生科技指数涨0.38% 09:27 贵金属板块开盘大跌，白银有色触及跌停，豫光金铅、晓程科技、贵研铂业、湖南白银、江西铜 业等纷纷低开。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体低开 沪指低开0.44%，深成指低开0.52%，创业板指低开0.44% | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 1m | 3947.87 | -17.41 | -0.44% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | Vh | 13466.30 | -70.79 | -0.52% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | VW | 3208.32 | -14.29 | -0.44% | 盘面上，能源金属全线回调，锂矿方向领跌；黄金、海南自贸区、固态电池、商业航天、光伏题材纷纷 走低。 个股方面，赣锋锂业低开近5%，公司公告，公司于2025年12月29日收到宜春市公安局的移送起诉告知 书，因涉嫌内幕交易罪单位犯罪，案件已移送检察机关审查起诉。 | | 62.25 -3.07 -4.70% ...

今天沪指翻红了，但是赚钱效应不佳，市场有超3300只股票下跌，涨幅靠前的主要是商业航天、机器人、金融科技。 这三个题材里，商业航天已经涨了一段时间了，机器人和金融科技像是回调企稳后的刚启动。 市场上，一条大新闻是小米集团"二号"林斌宣布减持月140亿元，是从明年开始减持，每12月减持不超5亿美元。 盘点林斌此前的减持，可以发现大部分是卖在相对高点了，累计套现约 85 亿港元： 2019年8月：套现约4亿港元 2020年9月：套现约80亿港元（当时承诺5年不减持剩余持股） 2024年6月：套现约1.8亿港元 而就在一个月前（11月24日），小米创始人雷军刚刚自掏腰包约1亿港元回购了，这一"1亿回购 vs140亿减持" 的鲜明对比迅速登上热搜，引发市场对小米 前景的广泛讨论。 整体来说，已重返2万亿成交量的当前，市场依然较为强势，沪指录得9连阳，跨年行情进行中。 不断涨上热搜的黄金和白银，今天跳水，说明没有一直涨的资产，波动才是常态。 今天沪指翻红了，但是赚钱效应不佳，市场有超3300只股票下跌，涨幅靠前的主要是商业航天、机器人、金融科技。 这三个题材里，商业航天已经涨了一段时间了，机器人和金融科技像是回调企稳后 ...

证券日报网讯12月29日，清水源（300437）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，子公司海南自贸区清水 源环境科技有限公司业务占比较低，对公司经营业绩影响较小，目前各项业务正常开展中。公司将关注 海南自贸区相关政策，结合自身实际情况积极挖掘潜在的机遇。 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance on December 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% to 3965.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13537.1 points and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.66% to 3222.61 points [2] - A total of 1993 stocks rose while 3325 stocks fell across the exchanges, with a total trading volume of 21,393 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous day's 21,601 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector saw strong gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10%, including Aerospace Huanyu and Guangwei Composites [5] - The oil and petrochemical sector led the market, with stocks like Intercontinental Oil and Unified Shares reaching the daily limit, while several banks also experienced gains of over 3% [5] - The lithium battery supply chain faced declines, with significant drops in retail stocks and sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and cross-border e-commerce [2][5] Market Outlook - Citic Securities indicated that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally, driven by positive signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic expectations from institutional investors [7] - The market is expected to experience a "spring surge" as liquidity improves and policy expectations rise, with the overall market showing signs of strength [7] - Guosheng Securities noted that while the market is still in a phase of adjustment, there are opportunities for investors to position themselves ahead of potential upward movements [8] Investment Recommendations - Huatai Securities suggested that despite a short-term market adjustment, there is potential for a spring rally, recommending investments in sectors such as batteries, chemicals, military, and consumer goods [9] - The report emphasized the importance of focusing on stocks with pricing power and policy support within these sectors [9]