Core Viewpoint - The Chinese marine economy is set to surpass 10 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a new opportunity for development, with a focus on high-quality growth driven by innovation and technology [1]. Group 1: Marine Economy Development - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology [1]. - Various coastal provinces, including Guangdong, Shandong, and Hainan, are actively promoting marine economic development, creating benchmark examples [1]. - Zhejiang Province's marine production value reached 1,201.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, but still lags behind other coastal provinces in terms of marine technology innovation and research outcomes [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Shortcomings - Zhejiang Province's marine economy faces challenges such as unbalanced regional development, small scale of emerging marine industries, and insufficient innovation capabilities [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for marine economic development in Zhejiang identifies these issues and calls for strategies to enhance marine technology and innovation [2]. Group 3: Advantages of Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang Province benefits from strong policy support and strategic planning, with a comprehensive marine economic structure covering various sectors, including oil and gas, advanced equipment, logistics, and marine biotechnology [3][4]. - The province has a high level of openness and cooperation, enhancing its internationalization and injecting new vitality into high-quality development [4]. Group 4: Recommendations for Development - To further promote marine economic development, Zhejiang Province should focus on efficient allocation of resources, technology innovation, and upgrading traditional industries [5]. - Strengthening the environment for marine technology innovation and enhancing collaboration between research institutions and enterprises are crucial for improving technology transfer rates [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the importance of innovation, efficient collaboration, industrial upgrading, harmony with the ocean, and win-win cooperation in promoting high-quality development of the marine economy [1][2] - China has maintained its position as the global leader in offshore wind power installation for seven consecutive years, with cumulative installed capacity accounting for about half of the world's total [1][2] - The offshore wind power industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, supported by strong policy backing and social capital participation [2][3] Group 2 - The development of offshore wind power is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals and plays an irreplaceable role in regional energy transformation [2][3] - By the end of 2024, China's offshore wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 41.27 GW, representing 7.9% of the country's total wind power capacity [2] - The technology development in offshore wind power is rapidly evolving, with the proportion of wind turbines with a capacity of 10 MW and above increasing from 46.4% in 2023 to 55.8% in 2024 [3][4] Group 3 - The industry is witnessing significant advancements in technology and innovation, with the establishment of floating offshore wind power demonstration projects contributing to the development of deep-sea wind power [4][5] - The offshore wind power sector is seen as a key area for technological advancement and high added value, with a focus on enhancing domestic innovation capabilities [3][4] - Predictions indicate that by 2030, the overall offshore wind power installed capacity in eastern coastal provinces will exceed 70 GW, and by 2060, it will surpass 136 GW [5][6] Group 4 - The integration of offshore wind power with green hydrogen and ammonia opens up vast opportunities for application scenarios and downstream industry chain extensions [5][6] - The future of the offshore wind power industry will require improved infrastructure, energy industry integration, and the development of specialized economic clusters [5][6] - The industry is transitioning from scale leadership to technological leadership, emphasizing the importance of domestic production and system solutions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan possesses unique advantages in marine cultural dissemination due to its rich maritime cultural resources and geographical location [2][3] Group 1: Marine Cultural Resources - Hainan is surrounded by the sea, providing a strong attraction to the ocean, which can be leveraged for marine education [2] - The China (Hainan) South China Sea Museum houses a wealth of maritime artifacts, enhancing public engagement with maritime culture [2] - Facilities such as lighthouses, beaches, shells, and marine life serve as connections between youth and the ocean, allowing for direct experiences of its natural and cultural values [2] Group 2: Importance of Marine Education - The primary goal of marine education activities is to raise public awareness of the strategic importance of the ocean to China [2] - There is a need for a large number of professionals to support the construction of a marine community and promote high-quality development of the marine economy [2] - Marine education is crucial for attracting and nurturing talent in the maritime field [2][3] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Recommendations - The legacy of Zheng He’s voyages, which passed through Hainan, serves as a means to promote maritime knowledge and the spirit of teamwork [3] - Future recommendations include establishing a more systematic marine education framework based on Hainan's marine resources to support the development of marine industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development of the marine economy in China, aligning with the concept of Chinese-style modernization, as highlighted by General Secretary Xi Jinping [1] Group 1: Marine Economy Development - The development of the marine economy is crucial for achieving a path of strength at sea that is characteristic of China [1] - There is a strong emphasis on the role of technological innovation as a driving force for high-quality development in the marine economy [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The article notes that enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology is a priority for building a strong marine nation [1] - Strengthening strategic technological capabilities in marine sectors is essential for fostering leading marine technology enterprises and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The article describes recent efforts to inject strong momentum into the high-quality development of the marine economy through advancements in marine technology [1] - A visit to the front lines of marine industry production reveals the dynamic power of the "blue engine" driving this sector [1]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and enhancing market systems [1][2] - The People's Bank of China proposed to strengthen monetary policy adjustments, maintain liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit support for key sectors [4][5] - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, aiming to create a better social credit environment and facilitate the normal operation of restructured enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of increasing technological innovation efforts and integrating technological achievements into production, while also improving public service efficiency through digital technology [8][9] - The National People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee reviewed the 2024 central budget draft, identifying issues in budget management and suggesting reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [11][12]

Group 1 - The construction of a maritime power is a significant strategic task for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, with breakthroughs in marine economic development, technological innovation, and ecological restoration since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] - China's marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in production value for the first time in 2024, with a focus on high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality advancements [2] - The country has maintained a global lead in new ship orders, completed shipbuilding, and backlog orders, indicating a robust marine industry [2] Group 2 - Coastal regions are accelerating the high-quality development of the marine economy by optimizing spatial layout and industrial structure, with provinces like Fujian and Zhejiang implementing innovative strategies [3] - The establishment of marine economic demonstration zones and the promotion of high-quality development regulations in provinces like Guangdong provide comprehensive support for marine economic growth [2][3] - The integration of marine resources and technology is being enhanced through initiatives like the "Dream" exploration vessel and the promotion of marine numerical forecasting models [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

【冠通研究】 低位库存支撑盘面 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开低走尾盘收涨。报收于 79620，前二十名多单量 136049 手，+3339 手；空单量 133555 手，+3630 手。 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开低走午后拉涨。美国总统特朗普 7 日表示，将从 8 月 1 日起分别对来自 日本、韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25%至 40%不等的关税。国内方面，中央财经委 员会第六次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，强调 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。供 给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼厂加工费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏激的预期或将有所改善，但目前 关税博弈之下，铜库存加速抢跑至美国，希望能在关税之前到达美国境内，其他地区的 铜库存继续去化，处于库存同期低位状态。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消 费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。预计 7 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 内外政策影响 钢价偏强反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观面：中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政 府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化 发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动。美国总统特朗 普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征 收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关税。另外， 越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量221万吨，环比 ...