Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of stablecoin regulation and a reduction in insurance product interest rates as significant developments impacting the non-bank financial sector [1]. - The capital market is experiencing structural changes driven by policy support and internal demand, with expectations for continued improvement in brokerage valuations and performance due to mid-year earnings catalysts and long-term capital inflows [4][11]. - The upcoming implementation of the stablecoin licensing regime in Hong Kong is expected to create new growth opportunities for brokerages, particularly in the virtual asset ecosystem [13]. Summary by Sections Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on stabilizing the market and enhancing regulatory effectiveness, with key tasks including risk prevention and promoting market vitality [11]. - The merger of Guotai Junan Asset Management and Haitong Asset Management is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, with projected net profits for the first half of 2025 expected to increase by 205%-218% year-on-year [12]. - The securities sector indices outperformed major indices, with the non-bank financial index up by 3.37% and the securities index up by 5.35% [16]. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The maximum preset interest rates for various insurance products have been reduced, with ordinary life insurance rates dropping from 2.5% to 2.0%, reflecting regulatory adjustments to align with market conditions [31]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is promoting the expansion of entrusted basic pension fund investments, which is expected to inject significant long-term capital into the market [32]. - The report notes a surge in insurance capital's equity market participation, with 21 instances of capital increases recorded this year, indicating a strong interest in equity investments by insurance institutions [33]. Market Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's net injection of liquidity amounted to 55.487 billion yuan during the week, with significant reverse repo operations contributing to market liquidity [43]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares increased by 14.20% compared to the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [21].

Group 1: Company Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan. China Power Construction, as a leading enterprise in water conservancy and hydropower, holds over 65% market share in domestic hydropower. The project is expected to generate an annual engineering volume of approximately 21.8 to 29.1 billion yuan for the company, accounting for about 1.7% to 2.3% of the company's new contract amount over 24 years [5]. - Mifeng Times (2556.HK) is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its full-chain product matrix and high customer stickiness. The commercialization of AI Agent is anticipated to open a second growth avenue, with projected revenues of 2.36 billion, 3.17 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PS ratios of 5.6, 4.2, and 3.2 times [8]. - Lin Qingxuan (H02170.HK) has positioned itself as a high-end skincare brand based on natural camellia oil ingredients. Since its launch in 2014, it has ranked first in total retail sales among all facial oil products in China for 11 consecutive years. According to Frost & Sullivan, Lin Qingxuan ranks first among all high-end domestic skincare brands in China by retail sales in 2024 [14]. - Reading Group (0772.HK) maintains stable online reading business performance, with revised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 7.39 billion, 7.95 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan. The company is expected to see profit improvements due to the performance of new businesses like short dramas and IP derivatives [32]. - Zhou Hei Ya (1458.HK) is projected to achieve revenue of 1.2 to 1.24 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 1.5% to 4.7%. However, profit is expected to increase by 55.2% to 94.8%, indicating operational improvements driven by flexible management mechanisms [38]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" trend may lead the automotive industry to shift from price-cutting strategies to technology upgrades and cost reduction models. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong technological capabilities in the price range below 200,000 yuan, and Geely for its solid fundamentals and undervalued status [18]. - The petrochemical industry is undergoing a transformation with the elimination of outdated capacity, which is expected to enhance industry competitiveness. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical sector [24]. - The urea industry is likely to benefit from the exit of outdated production facilities, with supply-side reforms expected to improve industry conditions. Key players to watch include Hualu Hengsheng, Hubei Yihua, Luxi Chemical, and Yangmei Chemical [28]. - The emergence of stablecoins, which are pegged to fiat currencies or assets, is aimed at addressing the volatility of cryptocurrencies and enhancing payment efficiency. Regulatory frameworks for stablecoins have been introduced in the US, Europe, and Hong Kong, which may strengthen the dollar's position in the international monetary system [44].

每经记者｜黄婉银 特约记者丨李旭馗 每经编辑｜张海妮 7月23日，香港金融管理局总裁余伟文发文再谈稳定币监管，强调需为当前稳定币市场的过度炒作降 温，并阐述了监管机构在稳妥、可持续原则下推动《稳定币条例》落地的下一步举措。他透露，香港金 融管理局将于下周公布"稳定币发行人发牌制度"的摘要说明，详细说明牌照申请的具体安排。 文章发布于香港金融管理局官网的专栏《汇思》中，该栏目由高层人员撰写，阐述香港金融管理局一些 重要的新政策及工作或公众关心的其他事宜。《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，这是自2022年年初以 来，余伟文第四次在《汇思》栏目中探讨稳定币相关话题。 余伟文指出，稳定币作为新兴支付工具进入传统金融体系有其积极意义，但必须警惕市场和舆论的过度 炒作。他列举了两个值得关注的现象： 一是过度概念化。余伟文表示，围绕稳定币的讨论容易集中于其对传统金融特别是支付体系的颠覆作 用，但是一旦要由虚入实，从概念和理论层面转到应用场景和具体安排，就出现明显落差。 据悉，目前已有数十家机构接触香港金融管理局，有的明确表示有意申请稳定币牌照，有的属于初步探 路性质。但大多仅停留在提升跨境支付效率、支持Web3.0发展、提升外 ...

文/ 香港金融管理局 总裁 余伟文 一个月前，我在这个栏目谈到如何推动稳定币在香港稳妥、可持续发展， 并提出应为稳定币热潮降降温。观乎一个月来市场和社会上对稳定币的讨 论热度，降温力度仍需加强。今天我想从监管角度再谈谈我们的看法，以 及下一步如何按照稳妥、可持续的原则落实《稳定币条例》。 避免过度炒作 稳定币也是近期各国央行和金融监管当局讨论较多的课题，讨论的焦点集中在稳定币的内在和外溢风 险，包括对传统金融市场和银行的影响，但更大的关注点在于如何避免稳定币被不法分子利用作洗钱工 具，特别是在跨境使用的场景。俗称「央行的央行」的国际清算银行在最新的年度经济报告中，就用了 不少篇幅强调防范稳定币洗钱风险的重要性。 香港是国际金融中心，监管水平一向以稳健见称，在国际上也有良好的声誉。《稳定币条例》通过以 后，我们马上就落实条例的监管和反洗钱两份指引征求市场意见，目前正根据反馈意见适当调整指引的 要求，争取在7月底公布。我们预期最终的定稿与咨询草稿不会有太大的调整，而鉴于国际监管的共同 关注，在反洗钱方面会订立更严谨的要求，尽量减低稳定币成为洗钱工具的风险，务求让香港稳定币市 场有序健康发展。 张弛有度是一种监管艺 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and adoption of stablecoins, with their transaction volumes surpassing those of traditional financial systems like Visa and PayPal [7]. - It emphasizes the regulatory advancements in Hong Kong, particularly the introduction of the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft," which is expected to enhance compliance and foster innovation in the virtual asset market [23]. - The report anticipates an influx of institutional players into the virtual asset trading services, driven by regulatory clarity and the expansion of service offerings by Chinese brokerage firms [60]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Chain, Application Scenarios, and Profit Models - Stablecoins have emerged as a more efficient medium for on-chain transactions compared to fiat currencies, significantly simplifying the process of trading cryptocurrencies [4]. - As of May 2025, the total market size of stablecoins is approximately $247.2 billion, with an average rolling transaction volume of $2.29 trillion, which is 1.7 times that of Visa [7]. - The most popular stablecoins are fiat-backed, such as USDT and USDC, which account for 64% and 25% of the market share, respectively [13]. - The report outlines the different types of stablecoins, including fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, algorithmic, and commodity-backed stablecoins, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [10][12]. - The profitability of stablecoin issuers primarily comes from interest income generated from reserve assets, with Tether's interest income reaching $4 billion in 2023 [16]. Section 2: Institutions Expected to Accelerate Entry into Virtual Asset Trading Services - Chinese brokerage firms are rapidly expanding into virtual currency services, with Guotai Junan International being the first to obtain a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license [60]. - The report notes that as of July 2025, 43 brokerages and one bank have upgraded their licenses to provide virtual asset trading services, indicating a growing trend in the market [64]. - The report identifies 11 licensed Virtual Asset Trading Platforms (VATPs) in Hong Kong, which are crucial for retail investors to access virtual asset investments [66]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the development of the virtual asset trading market in Hong Kong, driven by government policies and the anticipated expansion of market participants [83]. - It suggests that the ongoing regulatory framework will facilitate the tokenization of real-world assets, providing new avenues for revenue generation for brokerages [83].

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the GENIUS Act by President Trump establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins at the federal level in the U.S., aiming to facilitate the development of the crypto finance industry by removing regulatory barriers [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold at least a 1:1 ratio of reserve assets, including cash, bank deposits, U.S. Treasury securities, and other high-liquidity government assets [3]. - Bank issuers will be regulated by the Federal Reserve, while non-bank issuers will be overseen by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The act allows foreign stablecoins that meet technical and compliance standards to be used in the U.S., enhancing flexibility for cross-border payments [4]. - The signing of the act is expected to boost market trust and drive industry growth, with major U.S. tech and retail companies exploring stablecoin applications to reduce credit card fees, potentially saving billions annually [4]. Group 3: Future Projections - Current reports indicate approximately $250 billion in dollar-pegged stablecoins are in circulation, with over 80% of reserve assets in U.S. Treasury securities, creating an additional demand of about $200 billion for the Treasury market [5]. - Standard Chartered predicts that the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028, with corresponding Treasury demand between $1.2 trillion and $1.6 trillion, positioning stablecoin issuers as the second-largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 4: Banking Sector Response - Despite the potential for stablecoins to enhance payment efficiency, some banks remain cautious, with JPMorgan questioning the necessity of stablecoins and Citigroup highlighting high exchange costs between stablecoins and fiat currencies [6]. - Some banks are considering forming industry alliances to launch compliant and interoperable stablecoins [6]. Group 5: Overall Implications - The passage of the GENIUS Act marks a significant step in U.S. stablecoin regulation, providing a clear legal framework for the crypto industry and laying the groundwork for payment innovation and financial modernization [6]. - As tech companies and traditional financial institutions accelerate their stablecoin strategies, the U.S. may gain a competitive edge in the future digital finance landscape, although challenges in practical application and regulatory refinement remain [6].

Core Insights - The global financial landscape in 2025 is characterized by intense competition over stablecoins, driven by regulatory developments and the involvement of major financial and tech players [3][8][21] - Stablecoins, once seen as a niche product, are now central to discussions about monetary power and financial market restructuring, with significant profit potential for issuers [4][6][22] Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Senate passed the "GENIUS Act" on June 17, 2025, establishing strict regulations for stablecoins, including a 100% reserve requirement and mandatory transparency [10][11] - The EU's MiCA regulation, effective December 30, 2024, imposes stringent requirements on stablecoins, including a 1:1 liquidity reserve and banning algorithmic stablecoins [12] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" came into effect on May 30, 2025, marking the beginning of licensed operations for stablecoin issuers [13] Market Dynamics - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and BlackRock are actively entering the stablecoin market, with JPMorgan's blockchain platform processing over $20 billion daily and BlackRock's BUIDL fund capturing 40% of the tokenized U.S. Treasury market [15] - Tech giants such as JD.com and Ant Group are also positioning themselves in the stablecoin space, aiming to reduce cross-border payment costs significantly [16] - The involvement of political figures, such as the Trump family launching a stablecoin, adds a new dimension to the competitive landscape [17] Financial Implications - The stablecoin market is projected to generate substantial profits, with Tether's market cap at $155.7 billion and a net profit of $13 billion in 2024, indicating its significant role in the U.S. Treasury market [6] - The total transaction volume of stablecoins surpassed $27.6 trillion in 2024, exceeding that of Visa and Mastercard combined, highlighting their growing importance in global payments [19][20] Future Outlook - The evolution of stablecoins is seen as a potential revolution in payment systems and asset tokenization, with implications for various asset classes [21] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as demand for stablecoins grows, driven by their utility in facilitating transactions and their role as a bridge between fiat and cryptocurrencies [23]

Group 1 - The "Genius Act" (also known as the "Great and Beautiful Act") establishes the first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S., requiring all circulating dollar stablecoins to maintain 100% reserves in U.S. dollars or government securities [3] - The act mandates monthly solvency disclosures and regular audits for stablecoin issuers, with a dual regulatory oversight from federal and state levels [3] - The act is expected to enhance confidence in the U.S. dollar and increase demand for U.S. Treasury securities, as stated by President Trump [3] Group 2 - Following the signing of the Genius Act, the U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones showing slight gains while the Nasdaq faced a pullback [1][5] - Investors are closely monitoring the performance of major tech companies like AT&T and Tesla, which have shown significant short-term adjustments following their earnings reports [1] - The market is characterized by a cautious trading sentiment as participants await the implementation details of the Genius Act and the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's meetings [5][8] Group 3 - The XBIT decentralized exchange has adapted its on-chain functionalities in response to the new regulatory environment, emphasizing non-custodial and user-controlled asset management [5] - The launch of cross-chain stablecoin staking on the XBIT platform has led to a 20% increase in trading volume for dollar stablecoins, indicating a growing interest in regulated digital assets [6][8] - Approximately 60% of the funds in the cross-chain staking come from institutional investors, highlighting the increasing involvement of traditional finance in the crypto space [8]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is evolving globally, with significant developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong, which are expected to enhance market stability and drive the growth of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization [2][4][7]. Regulatory Developments - The U.S. has adopted a unified legislative approach for stablecoin regulation, with the GENIUS Act set to become law, establishing comprehensive guidelines for issuance, reserves, redemption, and auditing [4][5]. - Hong Kong has implemented the Stablecoin Issuance Regulatory Ordinance, which mandates high liquidity for reserve assets and requires licensed institutions to maintain robust risk management practices [7]. Market Dynamics - The rise of stablecoins is facilitating the digitization of assets and enhancing the efficiency of settlements, creating a cycle of increased asset digitalization, efficient settlement, and structured allocation [2][10]. - Stablecoins are becoming a key innovation in the digital currency space, widely used in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi) [2]. RWA and Stablecoin Interaction - The integration of stablecoins with RWA is creating a synergistic value cycle, where stablecoins serve as a liquidity tool and pricing benchmark for RWA markets, driving efficient asset circulation [10]. - The use of blockchain technology allows for the transformation of real-world assets into tradeable tokens, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in the digitalization process [9][10]. Efficiency Gains - A practical example in the renewable energy sector demonstrates that using stablecoins for RWA asset transactions can reduce cross-border settlement time and costs by 70-80% [9].

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国稳定币监管立法落地，中国工业经济韧性凸显 美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简 称《天才法案》），标志着美国稳定币监管立法进入实施阶段。 美国众议院 17 日以 308 票赞成、122 票反对的结果，通过了这一法案，该法案旨在为"锚 定"美元的稳定币制定监管框架。国内方面今年上半年工业和信息化领域主要 经济指标总量和增速稳步提升，规上工业增加值同比增长 6.4%，在一季度良好 开局的基础上展现出较强韧性，制造业增加值占 GDP 比重达到 25.7%，基本保 持稳定。下一步，多项政策举措将筑牢工业经济基本盘、持续培育发展动能。 其中，工业和信息化部将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点 行业稳增长工作方案；会同相关部门完善支持新型工业化的金融政策，纵深推 进产融合作；在政策、人才、资金、市场等方面持续优化企业发展环境。 重点品种：黄金、钢材、股指 钢材：当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水仍处高位缓慢回落的情况下，钢材 供应端压力逐步体现。钢材库存延续去化，钢材出口虽面临关税和反倾销影响， 但钢坯 ...