内容提要 四是市场覆盖不足。传统跨境清算模式需要依托全球银行账户体系和支付清算基础设施，对没有银行账户的用户或金融基础设施薄弱的地区无法形成服务覆 盖。 五是地缘政治风险大。传统跨境清算体系下的"资金流"和"信息流"分离，依托跨境支付系统和银行间账户关系流转资金，依托支付指令报文流转信息。其 中，信息流转主要依靠环球银行金融电信协会支付系统（SWIFT）。SWIFT名义上是一个非营利性的国际组织，覆盖全球200多个国家和地区，有超过11600 家金融机构接入，连接了90多个跨境清算网络，是目前全球最重要的跨境支付工具。但"9•11"事件后，美国以"国家安全"和"反洗钱"为由，逐步掌控SWIFT 系统主导权，掌握全球跨境支付清算信息。北美和欧洲等地的霸权国还将SIWFT系统"武器化"，多次利用该系统对亚洲和非洲国家实施金融制裁，主要方式 为通过将被制裁国的金融机构从SWIFT系统中剔除，切断其国际支付清算通道，阻碍其开展国际金融和国际贸易结算业务。 二、央行数字货币改善跨境支付清算的研究现状 央行数字货币（CBDC）是由一国（或地区）的中央银行发行，具有国家信用的法定数字货币，可分为批发型 CBDC和零售型 C ...

Group 1: Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economy grew by approximately 40 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching a total economic volume of 140 trillion RMB, which is equivalent to the total volume of several medium-sized economies [1][2] - Per capita GDP increased from 10,504 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024, indicating resilience and vitality in economic development [2][4] - The World Bank adjusted its high-income standard, lowering the threshold from 14,005 USD to 13,935 USD, which brings China closer to crossing the high-income threshold by just 275 USD [2][4] Group 2: Economic Development Requirements for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan must achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.5% to 5% and gradually raise inflation to around 2% to support nominal economic growth [8][14] - By 2035, China's GDP needs to exceed 200 trillion RMB and per capita GDP should surpass 20,000 USD, building on the 40 trillion RMB growth achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][14] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Responses - Current challenges include low inflation and employment pressures, which could hinder nominal GDP growth if not addressed [13][14] - The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized to ensure effective resource allocation and improve the business environment [13][14] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Environment - China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly 1 trillion USD in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 1.2 trillion USD in 2025, reflecting strong external competitiveness [15] - The global trade environment is expected to face significant challenges by 2026, necessitating proactive measures to adapt to changing conditions [15][16] Group 5: Digital Currency and Financial Infrastructure - The rise of digital currencies and financial infrastructure is reshaping global financial dynamics, with China leading in central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives [18][19] - The U.S. is focusing on stablecoins to maintain dollar dominance, while other countries are exploring their own digital currency strategies [19][21] - The integration of blockchain technology into traditional payment systems, such as SWIFT, is underway, indicating a shift towards a more digitalized financial landscape [22][23]

Core Insights - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is piloting a new type of government bond called tokenized MAS bill, which will be settled using a digital version of the Singaporean dollar known as a CBDC [1] - MAS Managing Director Chia Der Jiun stated that tokenization has matured enough for real-world applications, although it has not yet achieved mainstream adoption [2] - Tokenized assets can enhance financial transaction efficiency by eliminating intermediaries and optimizing collateral use, but significant structural and operational challenges remain [3] Regulatory Developments - MAS has finalized its framework for stablecoins, which will soon be legislated, focusing on stablecoins linked to single currencies like the Singaporean Dollar, US Dollar, or Euro [5] - Chia emphasized the importance of sound reserve backing and redemption reliability for stablecoins, warning of risks associated with unregulated stablecoins [6] - The MAS BLOOM initiative aims to foster innovation by encouraging trials with tokenized bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins [6] Future Outlook - The successful pilot of tokenized MAS bills is expected to facilitate broader adoption and diverse use cases, establishing a blueprint for next-generation financial market infrastructures [7]

（上接1版） 记者自业内多方了解到，长期以来，跨境支付面临"成本高、效率低、透明度低、接入范围有限"等问 题，这背后的核心原因是跨境支付链条长、合规成本高和主体间信任不足，各国监管部门和商业银行都 需要投入大量资源去应对。此外，当下持续演绎的地缘政治博弈，也进一步增加了跨境支付的不确定 性。 "自主可控"成为破题之钥。中国人民银行郑州培训学院教授、人民币国际化与可兑换研究中心主任王勇 对上证报记者表示，建设"自主可控"的人民币跨境支付体系，对于保障金融安全、支撑人民币国际化以 及提升国际金融话语权具有重要的战略意义。 在全球支付体系遭受地缘经济风险冲击的背景下，"自主可控"的人民币跨境支付系统将为人民币国际化 注入新的活力。王勇表示，它为人民币在全球范围内行使计价、结算和储备货币职能提供高效、可靠的 清算"高速公路"，是决定着人民币能否成为真正意义上"世界货币"的关键基础设施。 建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系，事关人民币国际化推进全局，具体应如何着力？ 在王勇看来，下一步建设的重点突破口和优先事项应主要围绕扩大网络覆盖、优化制度规则、探索技术 前沿以及强化场景应用这几个核心层面展开。其中，扩大网络覆盖与参与 ...

Group 1 - The case of Qian Zhimin, a Chinese businesswoman who fled to the UK with nearly 50 billion yuan worth of Bitcoin, highlights the challenges of governing cross-border crimes in the digital currency era [1][3] - Qian converted illegal fundraising proceeds into 61,000 Bitcoins, using the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency to facilitate her escape [3][6] - The UK authorities froze her assets when she attempted to purchase luxury properties with Bitcoin, leading to her arrest in April 2023 and subsequent guilty plea in September [6][9] Group 2 - A key controversy in the case revolves around the ownership of the frozen 61,000 Bitcoins, with a law firm representing over a thousand victims arguing that the assets belong to defrauded individuals, not the government [7][9] - Victims express their plight, with some stating that the Bitcoins are their only hope for recovering losses, contrasting with the prosecution's focus on Qian's lavish lifestyle [9][11] Group 3 - The case illustrates the challenges posed by digital currencies to traditional legal systems, as Bitcoin's anonymity and cross-border nature complicate asset tracking and recovery [11][12] - The legal framework for addressing cryptocurrency-related crimes remains underdeveloped, with differing interpretations of criminality between jurisdictions [11][14] Group 4 - The cooperation between Chinese and UK law enforcement was crucial in bringing the case to trial, involving intelligence sharing, extradition negotiations, and asset freezing [12][14] - However, the differing legal philosophies between the two countries may lead to conflicts in the pursuit of justice, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in cross-border crime governance [14][18] Group 5 - The case of Qian Zhimin is not an isolated incident, as global cryptocurrency crime reached $20.1 billion in 2022, with over 60% attributed to cross-border money laundering [15][18] - Future solutions may involve the promotion of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which could fundamentally alter the landscape by making all transactions traceable [17][18]

Core Insights - The rise of digital technology is profoundly reshaping the financial landscape, with the integration of technology and finance driving innovation and providing robust services to the real economy [1] - The dialogue series "Tech Finance Talk" aims to explore the real pathways and future possibilities of tech finance through discussions with financial executives and industry experts [1] - The chief economist of AMRO, He Dong, emphasizes the significant role of digital payments in promoting inclusive finance and enhancing economic development [1][10] Digital Payments and Financial Inclusion - Digital payments offer low-cost transactions through mobile platforms, significantly benefiting small and frequent payment scenarios, thus supporting inclusive finance [5][6] - Digital transactions create a digital trail, allowing financial institutions to build credit profiles for customers, enabling access to credit for low-income groups who lack traditional collateral [5][6] Cross-Border Payment Efficiency - In Southeast Asia, cross-border payment networks are evolving from traditional bilateral cooperation to multilateral systems, enhancing payment efficiency [2][6] - The Project Nexus initiative in Singapore aims to create a multilateral payment network to serve individuals and SMEs, addressing high costs and inefficiencies in cross-border transactions [6] - Stablecoins are emerging as a new tool for cross-border payments, but they also introduce regulatory challenges, particularly concerning anti-money laundering and customer identification [7][12] Variability in Digital Payment Development - The pace and model of mobile payment development vary significantly across Asian countries due to historical, regulatory, and consumer behavior factors [10] - Countries like Singapore have fewer unbanked individuals, while in lower-income nations, digital payments are crucial for remittances and financial access [8][10] Importance of Regulatory Frameworks - Financial innovation must be balanced with a robust regulatory framework to ensure the stability of the monetary system [12][13] - Historical lessons indicate that achieving currency stability requires long-term institutional development and strict regulation [13] - The regulatory environment plays a critical role in fostering competition and innovation within payment systems, as seen in China's experience [14]

Core Insights - The interview with Martin Chorzempa highlights the evolution of China's digital finance and the implications of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in the context of a global "new order" [1] Group 1: Digital Finance Development - The transition from a cash-dominated payment system to a cashless society in China, led by platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, has significantly reshaped daily consumption and accelerated financial inclusion [3] - Following the publication of Chorzempa's book, the pace of innovation in China's fintech sector has slowed due to a shift in policy focus from encouraging private sector innovation to emphasizing risk control and regulatory coordination [3] - The People's Bank of China's (PBOC) promotion of the digital currency (ECNY) is strategically significant but has yet to establish a widely adopted ecosystem [3] Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Trends - The demand for renminbi borrowing is increasing, although its influence in international financial markets remains limited compared to the US dollar [4] - The trajectory of US monetary and tariff policies will continue to influence global capital flow patterns [4] - The current state of international relations is characterized by chaos rather than order, with traditional multilateral institutions losing some influence [5] Group 3: Future Global Cooperation - A true "new order" has not yet emerged, but cooperation and openness at the intersection of multipolarity, digitalization, and green initiatives are seen as the only sustainable paths forward [5] - Both China and the broader global community need to seek common ground amid uncertainty [5]

Core Insights - The 2025 Bund Conference, themed "Embracing Change: New Order, New Technology," was held in Shanghai from October 23-25, co-hosted by CF40 and Tsinghua University [1] - Martin Chorzempa, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, highlighted the rapid advancement of digital finance in China, particularly the swift adoption of cashless transactions compared to other countries [1] - Chorzempa's experiences in China from 2013 to 2015 led him to research financial liberalization, culminating in his 2022 book "The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money" [1] Financial Inclusion Opportunities - The rise of digital finance has created remarkable opportunities for financial inclusion, allowing individuals without a borrowing history to access loans based on digital financial data [2] - China is undergoing a unique transformation period, showcasing the impact of digital finance on lending practices [2] Future Developments - Observing the evolution of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins will be intriguing, as CBDCs may establish a foundation for new cross-border payment methods [2] - Despite the growth of stablecoins, their scale remains relatively small, and concerns about their stability and safety persist [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that digital currency is an important strategic tool in national overall warfare, modern hybrid warfare, and digital financial warfare, evolving from traditional financial warfare under modern information and intelligent warfare conditions [1] - It highlights that digital currency is reshaping traditional models of wartime capital cross-border flow and resource mobilization, becoming a significant strategic tool in geopolitical competition [1] - The report indicates that China is advancing a "digital RMB + offshore finance" dual-track system to address the instability of the dollar-dominated international monetary system and increasing geopolitical risks, aiming to establish a multipolar global currency structure [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that relevant A-share concept stocks include Sifang Jingchuang and Chengtian Weiye [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar in the international financial system is being challenged by the rise of digital currencies, raising questions about whether digital currencies can ultimately replace the dollar's supremacy [1][5][12] Group 1: Historical Context of Dollar Dominance - The US dollar's dominance was established post-World War II, supported by the Bretton Woods system, which linked the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar [3] - Despite the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, the dollar maintained its central role in international trade and finance, bolstered by the US's control over global commodity pricing, particularly oil [3] Group 2: Rise of Digital Currencies - The emergence of decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin represents a significant shift in the financial landscape, challenging traditional currency concepts with features such as decentralization, anonymity, and immutability [5] - Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are being explored by various countries, combining the advantages of digital currencies with the stability of traditional currencies, potentially enhancing payment efficiency and reducing transaction costs [5] Group 3: Potential Challenges to Dollar Supremacy - Digital currencies could theoretically disrupt the dollar's monopoly in the international monetary system, especially if more countries and businesses adopt them for international trade settlements [7] - The speed and cost advantages of digital currencies in cross-border payments present an attractive alternative to traditional banking methods, which rely heavily on the dollar [7] Group 4: Obstacles to Digital Currency Adoption - The entrenched position of the dollar is supported by the US's strong economic, political, and military power, along with the liquidity and stability of its financial markets [8] - The digital currency market faces significant challenges, including price volatility, lack of effective regulation, and risks associated with illicit activities [8] - The promotion and application of CBDCs encounter hurdles such as inconsistent technical standards and incomplete legal frameworks [8] Group 5: Geopolitical and Economic Constraints - The US dollar's dominance is not just an economic issue but also a tool for the US to maintain its global hegemony, leading to potential resistance against the rise of digital currencies [10] - International cooperation on digital currency development is complicated by varying national interests and strategies, creating challenges for global coordination [10] Group 6: Future Outlook - The rise of digital currencies presents both opportunities and challenges for the international monetary system, but the foundation of dollar dominance remains strong [12] - A coexistence of digital currencies and the dollar in the international financial system is likely, with both competing and complementing each other [12]