来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 美国众议院共和党人在国防预算法案（H.R. 3838） 中加入了 禁止央行数字货币（CBDC） 的条款。该 修正案禁止美联储以任何名义测试、开发或实施 CBDC，唯一例外是"任何以美元计价、开放、无需许 可、私密，且能完全保障美元硬币和纸币隐私保护的货币"。（Decrypt） ...

Core Insights - The total market capitalization of stablecoins has grown from zero to over $251.7 billion since the inception of Tether (USDT) in 2014, with on-chain transaction volume reaching $5.6 trillion in 2024, establishing stablecoins as a cornerstone of the digital asset space [1] - The development of stablecoins is constrained by the "impossible trinity" dilemma, which highlights the challenge of achieving absolute price stability, extreme capital efficiency, and monetary independence simultaneously [1][5] - Different stablecoin designs reflect varying priorities, impacting their technological paths, risk exposures, and regulatory fates, ultimately shaping their roles in the global financial landscape [1] Group 1: Fiat-Collateralized Stablecoins - Fiat-collateralized stablecoins emerged to address the volatility of cryptocurrencies, providing a reliable "value benchmark" for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and large-scale commercial settlements [2][3] - The 1:1 collateralization model, where each stablecoin is backed by an equivalent amount of fiat currency, has gained market trust, with USDC and USDT becoming foundational assets in the crypto economy, peaking at over $150 billion in market capitalization in 2022 [3] - The stability of fiat-collateralized stablecoins has been validated through compliance practices, as seen in Circle's USDC, which maintained its peg during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023 [3] Group 2: Challenges of Fiat-Collateralized Stablecoins - Despite their success in price stability, fiat-collateralized stablecoins sacrifice capital efficiency and monetary independence, locking significant assets in low-yield reserves [5] - These stablecoins are essentially "digital dollars," relying on the dominance of the US dollar, which can exacerbate currency substitution issues in weaker economies [5] Group 3: Algorithmic Stablecoins - Algorithmic stablecoins emerged as a radical financial experiment aiming for high capital efficiency by using internal economic models instead of external collateral [6] - The collapse of Terra/LUNA serves as a cautionary tale, where the algorithmic mechanism failed under market pressure, leading to a loss of over $40 billion in value [7] - Even decentralized stablecoins like DAI have shifted towards incorporating fiat-collateralized assets to ensure stability, indicating a trend towards lower capital efficiency models [7] Group 4: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) - The rise of CBDCs represents a response from central banks to the threats posed by private stablecoins, aiming to reclaim monetary sovereignty and enhance payment system efficiency [8][9] - CBDCs prioritize price stability and state monetary sovereignty, sacrificing capital efficiency in the process, which contrasts with the global nature of private stablecoins [9][10] - While CBDCs focus on enhancing financial stability within a centralized framework, they may lack the interoperability and capital efficiency of established global stablecoins [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The stablecoin ecosystem is likely to evolve into a multi-layered and diversified landscape, with compliant fiat-collateralized stablecoins maintaining a significant role in mainstream finance, while those pursuing monetary independence thrive in DeFi [11] - CBDCs will reshape retail and wholesale payment systems at the national level, reflecting an ongoing tension between stability, efficiency, and sovereignty in the future of currency [11]

本文来自微信公众号：经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn），作者：李佩珊、孔笑微，题图来自：AI生成 2025年8月1日，中国香港《稳定币管理条例》正式生效，标志着香港成为亚洲首个对稳定币市场进行全面监管的国际金融中心。这项政策举措出台的时机 微妙：一方面，京东、蚂蚁集团等内地科技巨头正积极布局香港市场，期望通过稳定币提升跨境支付效率；另一方面，以USDT、USDC为代表的美元稳 定币早已主导全球市场，形成"链上美元"生态。 作为长期研究数字金融与真实世界资产（RWA）的经济学者，武汉大学经济与管理学院原院长、香港大学中国金融研究中心创始主任、香港国际金融学 会会长宋敏教授在接受《经济观察报》专访时指出，稳定币本质上是一种金融工具，更准确地说是"数字金融的基础设施"，其核心价值在于连接链上与链 下经济。 然而，他同时提醒，当前市场的热情背后潜藏着结构性风险，许多平台看似创新，"实质上只是改变了渠道，并未真正创造透明和可信的金融信息"，就像 当年的P2P（个人对个人网络借贷）一样暗藏风险。 宋敏强调，引入真实资产是稳定币未来发展的关键。资产代币化能否真正提高金融稳健性，本质取决于底层资产的质量。稳定币的稳健 ...

Core Viewpoint - The passage discusses the recent approval of three key cryptocurrency bills by the U.S. House of Representatives, which are expected to significantly impact capital formation and drive innovation in blockchain technology, thereby reshaping the global digital asset competitive landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The week of July 2025 was designated as "Cryptocurrency Week" by the U.S. legislative body, during which three core digital asset bills were submitted for review [2]. - The "GENIUS Act" was passed with overwhelming support, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which will accelerate their application in payment and settlement scenarios [2]. - The "CLARITY Act" and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" faced legislative hurdles but were ultimately approved and sent to the Senate for further consideration [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The three bills together form a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S., aiming to enhance the dollar's influence in the global digital currency process [2]. - The regulatory matrix delineates clear responsibilities: the "GENIUS Act" focuses on stablecoin regulation, while the "CLARITY Act" introduces a technical protocol audit framework for blockchain networks [2]. - The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" prohibits the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), ensuring the innovation and competitive vitality of stablecoins [2]. Group 3: CLARITY Act Details - The "CLARITY Act" establishes a framework for regulatory jurisdiction over digital assets, distinguishing between "digital asset securities" (regulated by the SEC) and "digital commodities" (regulated by the CFTC) [5]. - It introduces a "decentralization maturity assessment system" that adjusts regulatory intensity based on the governance structure's decentralization level [5]. - This act aims to fill the regulatory gap in blockchain technology in the U.S. and establish a compliance foundation for stablecoin infrastructure [5]. Group 4: Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act - The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" anchors the U.S. strategic direction in cryptocurrency regulation, emphasizing the protection of private sector innovation and market autonomy [7]. - It explicitly prohibits the Federal Reserve from directly issuing or managing retail CBDCs, requiring congressional authorization for any government token projects [7]. - The act aims to mitigate the risks associated with programmable currencies, thereby establishing a legal boundary for citizens' financial privacy [7].

Regulatory Framework - The three major cryptocurrency bills in the U.S. Congress—CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, and Anti-CBDC Act—form a coherent regulatory framework for Web3 development[1] - CLARITY Act aims to clearly categorize digital assets as securities, commodities, or stablecoins, delineating the roles of the SEC and CFTC[2] - GENIUS Act establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, ensuring compliance and safety in their issuance and reserves[2] Market Impact - The combined effect of these bills creates a complex regulatory environment that fosters innovation while reducing traditional securities regulation constraints[3] - The Anti-CBDC Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDCs directly to individuals, protecting the decentralized cryptocurrency market from state competition[3] - The regulatory clarity provided by the CLARITY Act is expected to reduce legal uncertainties, thereby promoting market growth and investor participation[3] Innovation and Challenges - The CLARITY Act is designed to lower compliance burdens for decentralized projects, potentially enhancing the development of crypto derivatives[2] - The GENIUS Act aims to enhance trust in stablecoins, facilitating their use in DeFi and payment applications[2] - Concerns exist regarding the potential for dual regulation and the impact of over-banking on non-custodial stablecoin innovation[2]

Global Market Performance - The global stock market showed mixed results last week, with the US indices displaying divergence; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow Jones experienced a slight pullback [3] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 and DAX indices increased, whereas the CAC40 index saw a minor decline [3] - The Asia-Pacific region also had mixed results, with the SENSEX30 index in India retreating [3] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [3] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3] - The impact of tariffs on specific product categories is becoming more pronounced, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Stablecoin Legislation - On July 17, the US Congress passed three significant bills regarding stablecoin regulation, which were signed into law by President Trump [4] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with US dollars, enhancing the security of funds held by users [4] - The CLARITY Act delineates the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a framework for digital assets linked to blockchain technology [6] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional authorization, ensuring that the future of digital dollars remains in the private sector [7] Market Implications of Legislation - The passage of these bills is expected to create a new dominance in the digital finance sector, reinforcing the US's position in the global cryptocurrency market [8] - By binding stablecoins closely to the US dollar, the legislation aims to strengthen the dollar's role in the international monetary system [8] - The demand for US Treasury bonds may diversify as stablecoin issuers are likely to purchase them, alleviating selling pressure and potentially lowering government borrowing costs [8] Market Strategy - Following recent highs in the US stock market, caution is advised due to potential volatility stemming from ongoing tariff negotiations and changing interest rate expectations [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty interest rate trades and sectors with strong growth potential, such as nuclear power and semiconductors, as a strategy to navigate increased market fluctuations [3]

Core Insights - The roundtable discussion on stablecoins highlighted their potential to reshape the financial ecosystem, emphasizing the need for theoretical research, policy support, and market practice to drive development [1] - Experts discussed the unique opportunities for asset tokenization in China, leveraging its industrial internet infrastructure to achieve digital transformation across manufacturing [2] - The strategic implications of recent U.S. legislation on stablecoin regulation were analyzed, indicating a competitive landscape in global digital finance [2][4] - The integration of traditional finance with digital assets was underscored, with traditional financial institutions exploring stablecoin issuance and cryptocurrency trading [5] Group 1: Stablecoin Development - Stablecoins are seen as a key component in the asset tokenization wave, offering programmable and composable features that could transform payment systems [1] - The need for a balanced approach to innovation and regulation in stablecoin development was emphasized, with a focus on enhancing transaction efficiency and financial inclusivity [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Challenges - The disparity in regulatory environments between domestic and international markets poses challenges for cross-border asset circulation [2] - The potential for stablecoins to serve as a bridge between Web2 and Web3 was highlighted, indicating a shift in financial transaction trust and efficiency [2][4] Group 3: Technological Integration - The fusion of IoT, blockchain, and AI technologies is crucial for verifying the authenticity of off-chain assets, addressing the "last mile" problem [3] - Practical applications of stablecoins in cross-border transactions and large-scale purchases were discussed, showcasing their efficiency and cost-effectiveness [3] Group 4: Future Directions - The development of green stablecoins was proposed as a means to support green asset growth, with China positioned to explore pilot projects [5] - The evolving relationship between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) was analyzed, focusing on their competitive dynamics and future policy considerations [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the formal establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S. through the signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump, marking a significant legislative development in the cryptocurrency space [1][5] - The "Genius Act" requires stablecoins to be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and mandates monthly disclosures of reserves by issuers [4][5] - The passage of the "Genius Act" and related legislation reflects a shift in the political landscape, with cryptocurrency evolving from a financial innovation topic to a matter of national interest involving U.S. dollar dominance and political stakes [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's previous skepticism towards cryptocurrencies has transformed into strong support, as he aims to position the U.S. as a leader in the digital currency space [2][6] - The legislative process faced significant hurdles, including an unprecedented 8-hour procedural vote in the House of Representatives, highlighting the contentious nature of cryptocurrency regulation [3][5] - The approval of the "Genius Act" is expected to pave the way for U.S. banks to issue digital assets, with major financial institutions eager to explore this new business opportunity [5] Group 3 - The legislation is seen as a means to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global market, with stablecoins potentially reinforcing the dollar's influence beyond traditional monetary systems [7][10] - The demand for stablecoins is projected to create significant new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, potentially lowering interest costs for the U.S. government [7][8] - The push for private sector-issued stablecoins comes alongside efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's power regarding central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), indicating a strategic preference for market-driven solutions [8][10] Group 4 - The global response to the U.S. stablecoin legislation has been one of concern, with many countries accelerating their own CBDC initiatives to counter the potential risks posed by U.S. dollar stablecoins [10][11] - The dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins, which account for 99% of the global market share, raises alarms about the erosion of monetary sovereignty for other nations [10][11] - Countries like Japan are implementing strict regulations to control the issuance of stablecoins, reflecting a defensive stance against the expansion of U.S. digital currency influence [11]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market has reached a historic milestone, surpassing a total market value of $4 trillion, driven by the acceleration of cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S., particularly the passage of the "Genius Act" [1] - The "Genius Act," supported by the Republican Party and former President Trump, aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar, ensuring their legality and compliance [1] - The act mandates that only licensed stablecoin issuers can operate in the U.S., subjecting them to strict regulations, including reserve asset requirements and anti-money laundering systems, enhancing consumer protection and the overall legitimacy of the cryptocurrency industry [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency ETF market in the U.S. has seen strong inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting $5.5 billion in net inflows since July, and Ethereum ETFs drawing $2.9 billion during the same period, indicating institutional investors' optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency market [2] - The stablecoin market is projected to experience significant growth, with Citibank's research predicting a total circulation supply of stablecoins could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, potentially rising to $3.7 trillion in an optimistic scenario, with U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins expected to dominate [2] - Non-U.S. countries are also accelerating the development of their central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which may impact the stablecoin market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has raised concerns regarding the role and status of stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the financial system [1] Group 1: Stablecoins - Bailey questioned the stability and reliability of stablecoins, suggesting that they may not provide the expected benefits to the financial system [1] - The potential risks associated with stablecoins were highlighted, particularly in terms of their impact on monetary policy and financial stability [1] Group 2: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) - The discussion around CBDCs was emphasized, with Bailey expressing skepticism about their necessity and effectiveness in improving the current financial infrastructure [1] - The Bank of England is still exploring the implications of introducing a CBDC, but no definitive plans have been established yet [1]