（来源：通证经济） 贝莱德CEO：主权基金正在低价买入比特币 贝莱德 CEO Larry Fink 透露，一些未具名的主权基金正在买入比特币，且在比特币价格从 12.6 万美元 的峰值下跌时，他们买入了更多。Larry Fink 表示，这些基金正在渐进式买入，并在比特币价格跌至 8 万美元区间时增持，旨在建立长期头寸。 他在 DealBook 活动上与 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 一起发言时表示，如果美国不加速在数字化和代币化方面的投入，将面临落后于其他国家的 风险。此外，Larry Fink 预测，加密货币驱动的代币化将在未来几年迎来巨大增长。（福布斯） 国际货币基金组织警告：稳定币普及或削弱央行控制权 贝莱德CEO：主权基金正在低价买入比特币 贝莱德 CEO Larry Fink 透露，一些未具名的主权基金正在买入比特币，且在比特币价格从 12.6 万美元 的峰值下跌时，他们买入了更多。Larry Fink 表示，这些基金正在渐进式买入，并在比特币价格跌至 8 万美元区间时增持，旨在建立长期头寸。 他在 DealBook 活动上与 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian ...

Core Insights - The global financial market is trending towards multipolarity and regionalization, with steady progress in the internationalization of the Renminbi and improvements in local currency settlement mechanisms [1][3] - Digital technologies such as blockchain and AI are reshaping the foundational logic of finance, with Swift innovating to achieve real-time and secure cross-border payments [1][3] - Swift is actively involved in CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) experiments and has validated its role as a unified access point for digital assets and currencies [1][6] Group 1: CBDC and Digital Assets - Swift has conducted a series of CBDC and digital asset experiments with global financial institutions, confirming its feasibility as a unified access point [6] - In 2025, Swift will initiate real transaction pilots for digital assets and currencies, focusing on post-trade settlement, foreign exchange settlement risk, and automated fiat payments [6][8] - The exploration of CBDCs is advancing globally, with 137 countries researching CBDCs, and 72 of them in advanced stages of development [7][8] Group 2: Blockchain Initiatives - At the 2025 Sibos conference, Swift announced the addition of a blockchain-based shared ledger to its technical infrastructure, extending its trusted network into the digital realm [3][9] - Swift is collaborating with over 30 global financial institutions to design and develop a shared digital ledger, with the first application focusing on real-time, round-the-clock cross-border payments [10] - The shared ledger will serve as a secure real-time record of transactions between financial institutions, integrating with existing systems while maintaining Swift's trust and compliance [10] Group 3: Cross-Border Payment Challenges - The future of cross-border payments faces challenges such as fragmentation risks and technological divergence, which could lead to increased transaction costs and inefficiencies [3][14] - Swift emphasizes the need for a unified protocol to mitigate the complexities arising from diverse local payment systems and standards [14] - Swift plays a critical role in promoting universal standards and facilitating interoperability among different technological frameworks to reduce industry fragmentation risks [14] Group 4: Strategic Goals and Innovations - Swift aims to enhance global interoperability and facilitate seamless value exchange between traditional and digital assets [7][11] - The organization is focused on achieving the G20 cross-border payment roadmap goals, targeting faster, cheaper, and more transparent global payments by 2027 [12] - Swift is also advancing the ISO 20022 migration, with most institutions completing the transition, and is now focusing on leveraging structured data for improved operational efficiency [12][13]

Core Insights - Emerging technologies such as blockchain and smart contracts are driving the development of digital currencies, reshaping the underlying logic of payment systems, and providing innovative opportunities for cross-border payment clearing through Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [1] Traditional Cross-Border Payment Clearing System Challenges - The traditional cross-border payment clearing system, primarily based on the correspondent banking model, faces significant challenges including slow transaction speeds, high costs, lack of transparency, insufficient market coverage, and geopolitical risks [2][3][4] - Cross-border clearing is slow, taking at least 1 to 3 business days due to multiple intermediaries and varying operational hours across countries [2] - High costs are associated with the correspondent banking model, with global remittance costs reaching 6.3% in 2023, driven by various operational and compliance costs [2] - Transparency issues arise from the independent systems of different banks and institutions, leading to difficulties in tracking transactions and resolving disputes [3] - The traditional system's reliance on SWIFT for information flow exposes it to geopolitical risks, as seen in the U.S. leveraging SWIFT for sanctions [4] Current Research on CBDCs Improving Cross-Border Payment Clearing - CBDCs, issued by central banks, can be categorized into wholesale and retail types, with the latter aimed at enhancing domestic payment efficiency and the former focused on improving cross-border payments [5] - A significant majority (91%) of surveyed central banks are engaged in CBDC-related work, with many countries entering trial phases [5] - Three interoperability models for wholesale CBDCs are identified: compatibility, interconnection, and a single multi-currency payment system [6] Effectiveness of the mBridge Project in Improving Cross-Border Payment Clearing - The mBridge project, initiated by several central banks, aims to create a multilateral cooperation mechanism for cross-border payment clearing using distributed ledger technology [7][8] - The project has evolved from bilateral CBDC corridors to a standardized multilateral CBDC corridor network, allowing for direct currency exchanges and faster transaction times [8][10] - The average transaction time on the mBridge network is significantly reduced to 6-9 seconds compared to traditional systems [10] Cost Analysis of Cross-Border Payments - The mBridge project aims to reduce various cost components associated with traditional cross-border payments, including backend operational costs, foreign exchange risk costs, liquidity costs, and compliance costs [11][12][14] - The backend operational costs, which account for 27% of total costs, are expected to decrease due to improved synchronization of funds and information [12] - Foreign exchange risk costs, currently at 15%, are also anticipated to decline as participants can view real-time exchange rates [12] - Liquidity costs, which traditionally require banks to pre-fund accounts, will be reduced as mBridge allows for real-time settlement [13] - Compliance costs may rise due to the complexity of regulatory frameworks across different jurisdictions [14] Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations - The increasing demand for optimized cross-border payment environments necessitates the development of CBDCs, with a focus on enhancing the international role of the renminbi [15] - Recommendations include accelerating the establishment of multilateral cooperation mechanisms for cross-border payments and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi through digital currency applications [16][17]

Group 1: Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economy grew by approximately 40 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching a total economic volume of 140 trillion RMB, which is equivalent to the total volume of several medium-sized economies [1][2] - Per capita GDP increased from 10,504 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024, indicating resilience and vitality in economic development [2][4] - The World Bank adjusted its high-income standard, lowering the threshold from 14,005 USD to 13,935 USD, which brings China closer to crossing the high-income threshold by just 275 USD [2][4] Group 2: Economic Development Requirements for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan must achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.5% to 5% and gradually raise inflation to around 2% to support nominal economic growth [8][14] - By 2035, China's GDP needs to exceed 200 trillion RMB and per capita GDP should surpass 20,000 USD, building on the 40 trillion RMB growth achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][14] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Responses - Current challenges include low inflation and employment pressures, which could hinder nominal GDP growth if not addressed [13][14] - The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized to ensure effective resource allocation and improve the business environment [13][14] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Environment - China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly 1 trillion USD in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 1.2 trillion USD in 2025, reflecting strong external competitiveness [15] - The global trade environment is expected to face significant challenges by 2026, necessitating proactive measures to adapt to changing conditions [15][16] Group 5: Digital Currency and Financial Infrastructure - The rise of digital currencies and financial infrastructure is reshaping global financial dynamics, with China leading in central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives [18][19] - The U.S. is focusing on stablecoins to maintain dollar dominance, while other countries are exploring their own digital currency strategies [19][21] - The integration of blockchain technology into traditional payment systems, such as SWIFT, is underway, indicating a shift towards a more digitalized financial landscape [22][23]

Core Insights - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is piloting a new type of government bond called tokenized MAS bill, which will be settled using a digital version of the Singaporean dollar known as a CBDC [1] - MAS Managing Director Chia Der Jiun stated that tokenization has matured enough for real-world applications, although it has not yet achieved mainstream adoption [2] - Tokenized assets can enhance financial transaction efficiency by eliminating intermediaries and optimizing collateral use, but significant structural and operational challenges remain [3] Regulatory Developments - MAS has finalized its framework for stablecoins, which will soon be legislated, focusing on stablecoins linked to single currencies like the Singaporean Dollar, US Dollar, or Euro [5] - Chia emphasized the importance of sound reserve backing and redemption reliability for stablecoins, warning of risks associated with unregulated stablecoins [6] - The MAS BLOOM initiative aims to foster innovation by encouraging trials with tokenized bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins [6] Future Outlook - The successful pilot of tokenized MAS bills is expected to facilitate broader adoption and diverse use cases, establishing a blueprint for next-generation financial market infrastructures [7]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a "self-controllable" cross-border payment system for the Renminbi (RMB) is crucial for ensuring financial security, supporting the internationalization of the RMB, and enhancing China's international financial influence [1][3]. Group 1: Current Challenges in Cross-Border Payments - Cross-border payments face issues such as high costs, low efficiency, lack of transparency, and limited access, primarily due to long payment chains, high compliance costs, and insufficient trust among entities [1]. - The RMB's share in global foreign exchange reserves remains significantly lower than that of the US dollar and euro, indicating substantial room for growth in the RMB's internationalization [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus for RMB Payment System Development - Key areas for developing a self-controllable RMB cross-border payment system include expanding network coverage, optimizing institutional rules, exploring cutting-edge technologies, and strengthening application scenarios [3]. - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is positioned as a vital component for enhancing the global influence of the RMB cross-border payment system [3]. Group 3: Role of Digital Currency - The application of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) enhances the efficiency and security of RMB cross-border payments and helps mitigate sanctions risks arising from geopolitical conflicts [4]. - Developing a robust offshore RMB market ecosystem is essential for the RMB cross-border payment system, which includes promoting RMB-denominated investment tools in major offshore markets [4].

Group 1 - The case of Qian Zhimin, a Chinese businesswoman who fled to the UK with nearly 50 billion yuan worth of Bitcoin, highlights the challenges of governing cross-border crimes in the digital currency era [1][3] - Qian converted illegal fundraising proceeds into 61,000 Bitcoins, using the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency to facilitate her escape [3][6] - The UK authorities froze her assets when she attempted to purchase luxury properties with Bitcoin, leading to her arrest in April 2023 and subsequent guilty plea in September [6][9] Group 2 - A key controversy in the case revolves around the ownership of the frozen 61,000 Bitcoins, with a law firm representing over a thousand victims arguing that the assets belong to defrauded individuals, not the government [7][9] - Victims express their plight, with some stating that the Bitcoins are their only hope for recovering losses, contrasting with the prosecution's focus on Qian's lavish lifestyle [9][11] Group 3 - The case illustrates the challenges posed by digital currencies to traditional legal systems, as Bitcoin's anonymity and cross-border nature complicate asset tracking and recovery [11][12] - The legal framework for addressing cryptocurrency-related crimes remains underdeveloped, with differing interpretations of criminality between jurisdictions [11][14] Group 4 - The cooperation between Chinese and UK law enforcement was crucial in bringing the case to trial, involving intelligence sharing, extradition negotiations, and asset freezing [12][14] - However, the differing legal philosophies between the two countries may lead to conflicts in the pursuit of justice, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in cross-border crime governance [14][18] Group 5 - The case of Qian Zhimin is not an isolated incident, as global cryptocurrency crime reached $20.1 billion in 2022, with over 60% attributed to cross-border money laundering [15][18] - Future solutions may involve the promotion of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which could fundamentally alter the landscape by making all transactions traceable [17][18]

Core Insights - The rise of digital technology is profoundly reshaping the financial landscape, with the integration of technology and finance driving innovation and providing robust services to the real economy [1] - The dialogue series "Tech Finance Talk" aims to explore the real pathways and future possibilities of tech finance through discussions with financial executives and industry experts [1] - The chief economist of AMRO, He Dong, emphasizes the significant role of digital payments in promoting inclusive finance and enhancing economic development [1][10] Digital Payments and Financial Inclusion - Digital payments offer low-cost transactions through mobile platforms, significantly benefiting small and frequent payment scenarios, thus supporting inclusive finance [5][6] - Digital transactions create a digital trail, allowing financial institutions to build credit profiles for customers, enabling access to credit for low-income groups who lack traditional collateral [5][6] Cross-Border Payment Efficiency - In Southeast Asia, cross-border payment networks are evolving from traditional bilateral cooperation to multilateral systems, enhancing payment efficiency [2][6] - The Project Nexus initiative in Singapore aims to create a multilateral payment network to serve individuals and SMEs, addressing high costs and inefficiencies in cross-border transactions [6] - Stablecoins are emerging as a new tool for cross-border payments, but they also introduce regulatory challenges, particularly concerning anti-money laundering and customer identification [7][12] Variability in Digital Payment Development - The pace and model of mobile payment development vary significantly across Asian countries due to historical, regulatory, and consumer behavior factors [10] - Countries like Singapore have fewer unbanked individuals, while in lower-income nations, digital payments are crucial for remittances and financial access [8][10] Importance of Regulatory Frameworks - Financial innovation must be balanced with a robust regulatory framework to ensure the stability of the monetary system [12][13] - Historical lessons indicate that achieving currency stability requires long-term institutional development and strict regulation [13] - The regulatory environment plays a critical role in fostering competition and innovation within payment systems, as seen in China's experience [14]

Core Insights - The interview with Martin Chorzempa highlights the evolution of China's digital finance and the implications of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in the context of a global "new order" [1] Group 1: Digital Finance Development - The transition from a cash-dominated payment system to a cashless society in China, led by platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, has significantly reshaped daily consumption and accelerated financial inclusion [3] - Following the publication of Chorzempa's book, the pace of innovation in China's fintech sector has slowed due to a shift in policy focus from encouraging private sector innovation to emphasizing risk control and regulatory coordination [3] - The People's Bank of China's (PBOC) promotion of the digital currency (ECNY) is strategically significant but has yet to establish a widely adopted ecosystem [3] Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Trends - The demand for renminbi borrowing is increasing, although its influence in international financial markets remains limited compared to the US dollar [4] - The trajectory of US monetary and tariff policies will continue to influence global capital flow patterns [4] - The current state of international relations is characterized by chaos rather than order, with traditional multilateral institutions losing some influence [5] Group 3: Future Global Cooperation - A true "new order" has not yet emerged, but cooperation and openness at the intersection of multipolarity, digitalization, and green initiatives are seen as the only sustainable paths forward [5] - Both China and the broader global community need to seek common ground amid uncertainty [5]

Core Insights - The 2025 Bund Conference, themed "Embracing Change: New Order, New Technology," was held in Shanghai from October 23-25, co-hosted by CF40 and Tsinghua University [1] - Martin Chorzempa, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, highlighted the rapid advancement of digital finance in China, particularly the swift adoption of cashless transactions compared to other countries [1] - Chorzempa's experiences in China from 2013 to 2015 led him to research financial liberalization, culminating in his 2022 book "The Cashless Revolution: China's Reinvention of Money" [1] Financial Inclusion Opportunities - The rise of digital finance has created remarkable opportunities for financial inclusion, allowing individuals without a borrowing history to access loans based on digital financial data [2] - China is undergoing a unique transformation period, showcasing the impact of digital finance on lending practices [2] Future Developments - Observing the evolution of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins will be intriguing, as CBDCs may establish a foundation for new cross-border payment methods [2] - Despite the growth of stablecoins, their scale remains relatively small, and concerns about their stability and safety persist [2]