Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current macro - level positive factors have not yet been reflected in the demand for finished paper, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5312, down 0.45% day - on - day and 0.08% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5426, up 0.11% day - on - day and 0.74% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5316, down 0.41% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.79% week - on - week; Knit Coniferous was 5450, unchanged; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged and down 1.18% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, down 3.90% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 11.11% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, down 4.62% month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, down 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, down 11.00% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, down 4.57% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month compared to March; broad - leaf pulp import volume was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month compared to March [1]. - **Domestic Output**: On May 22, 2025, broad - leaf pulp domestic output was 20 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 20 tons [1]. - **Shipment Volume to China**: In March 2025, the pulp shipment volume to China was 1813, up 20.70% compared to February [1]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: On May 22, 2025, pulp port inventory was 215.7 tons, down 4.1 tons from the previous period, a 1.9% decline [1]. - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On May 22, 2025, it was 26.10 tons [1]. Demand - **Finished Paper Output**: On May 22, 2025, double - offset paper output was 20.03 tons; coated paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 27.60 tons; white cardboard was 28.30 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 22, 2025, Russian coniferous basis was 24, with a quantile level of 0.761; Silver Star basis was 824, with a quantile level of 0.968 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On May 22, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was 204, with a quantile level of 0.84; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 387, with a quantile level of 0.236 [1]. Summary of Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company announced May 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star at 740 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Star had no supply in May and June, with partial supply expected to resume in July; natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton [1]. - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price - increase letters, and the implementation is to be determined; finished paper output remained stable [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 215.7 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - support effect of pulp foreign - market quotations has weakened, demand from downstream paper mills remains rigid, end - market demand is weak, and inventory has shifted from a destocking trend to a restocking trend. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see as current macro - level positives have not yet translated into finished - paper demand [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5334, up 0.30% day - on - day and 1.91% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5410, up 0.37% day - on - day and 2.54% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5322, up 0.23% day - on - day and 1.91% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On May 20, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250, down 0.79% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5450, unchanged day - on - day and up 2.83% week - on - week; Golden broadleaf pulp was 4200, down 1.18% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week [1] - **Foreign - Market Quotes (USD)**: In May 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 770, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In May 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Tianxi etc. was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1502 tons, compared with 1543 tons in March [1] - **Domestic Output**: On May 15, 2025, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp was 20.7 tons; the output of chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 tons [1] - **Inventory** - **Pulp Port Inventory**: On May 15, 2025, pulp port inventory was 219.8 tons, up 8.0% from the previous period, shifting from a destocking trend to a restocking trend [1] - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On May 15, 2025, delivery warehouse inventory was 27.00 tons [1] - **Demand** - **Finished - Paper Output**: On May 15, 2025, the output of offset paper was 20.00 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; tissue paper was 27.70 tons; white cardboard was 27.90 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 20, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 40, with a quantile level of 0.792; the Silver Star basis was 840, with a quantile level of 0.971 [1] - **Import Profit**: On May 20, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 39, with a quantile level of 0.542; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 954, with a quantile level of 0.078 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Pulp foreign - market prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost - support effect [1] - **Demand**: The prices of major pulp - made papers have continued to fall, the positive impact of the easing of the Sino - US trade war has not been reflected in finished - paper output, downstream paper mills maintain rigid demand, and end - market demand remains weak [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 15, 2025, pulp port inventory has shifted from a destocking trend to a restocking trend [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - After the macro - positive factors are realized, pulp is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On May 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5282, down 0.64% week - on - week and up 2.40%; SP2507 was 5356, down 0.56% week - on - week and up 3.72%; SP2509 was 5280, down 0.71% week - on - week and up 3.57% [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6300, unchanged week - on - week and up 1.61%; Knitted needle was 5450, unchanged week - on - week and up 4.81%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged week - on - week and up 3.66% [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume: In March 2025, coniferous pulp import was 79.8 tons, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp import was 147 tons, down 8.47% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1502 tons, down 2.66% month - on - month [1] - Domestic production: On May 15, 2025, hardwood pulp production was 20.7 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 20.1 tons [1] Inventory - Pulp port inventory: On May 15, 2025, it was 219.8 tons, up 16.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.0% [1] - Delivery warehouse inventory: On May 15, 2025, it was 27.00 tons [1] Demand - Finished paper production: On May 15, 2025, offset paper production was 20.00 tons; coated paper production was 7.70 tons; tissue paper production was 27.70 tons; white cardboard production was 27.90 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On May 16, 2025, Russian needle basis was 94, with a quantile level of 0.842; Silver Star basis was 944, with a quantile level of 0.981 [1] - Import profit: On May 16, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was 11, with a quantile level of 0.642; hardwood pulp Goldfish import profit was - 904, with a quantile level of 0.092 [1] Summary of Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: Pulp outer - disk prices dropped significantly. Chilean Arauco adjusted the April 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices, weakening cost support [1] - Demand: The prices of major wood - pulp papers continued to fall. After the Sino - US trade war eased, the positive effects were not reflected in finished paper production. Downstream paper mills maintained rigid - demand purchases [1] - Inventory: As of May 15, 2025, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports was 219.8 tons, increasing by 16.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%. The inventory changed from a de - stocking trend to a stocking trend [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the macro - level positive factors are realized, pulp is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 15, 2025, SP2505 was 5370 with a 0.71% daily and 4.80% weekly increase; SP2507 was 5386 with a 0.15% daily and 4.62% weekly increase; SP2509 was 5318 with a 0.19% daily and 4.44% weekly increase [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6300 with a 0.00% daily and 1.61% weekly increase; Russian Needle was 5450 with a 2.83% daily and 4.81% weekly increase; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4250 with a 1.19% daily and 3.66% weekly increase [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars with a - 6.67% monthly decrease; Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars with a 3.28% monthly increase; Chilean Venus was 690 dollars with a 0.00% monthly change [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6289 with a - 6.62% monthly decrease; Brazilian Goldfish was 5154 with a 3.25% monthly increase; Chilean Venus was 5640 with a 0.00% monthly change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Imports**: In March 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 79.8 tons with a 0.00% monthly change; broad - leaf pulp imports were 147 tons with an - 8.47% monthly decrease [1] - **Domestic Production**: On May 15, 2025, broad - leaf pulp domestic production was 20.7 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 tons [1] - **Shipments to China**: In February 2025, pulp shipments to China were 1502 tons with a - 2.66% monthly decrease [1] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: On May 15, 2025, pulp port inventory was 219.8 tons [1] - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On May 15, 2025, it was 27.00 tons [1] - **Finished - paper Inventory**: On May 15, 2025, double - offset paper was 20.00 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; tissue paper was 27.70 tons; white cardboard was 27.90 tons [1] Demand - **Finished - paper Production**: On May 15, 2025, double - offset paper production was 20.00 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; tissue paper was 27.70 tons; white cardboard was 27.90 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 15, 2025, Russian Needle basis was 64 with a quantile level of 0.824; Silver Star basis was 914 with a quantile level of 0.978 [1] - **Import Profit**: On May 15, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was 11 with a quantile level of 0.642; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 904 with a quantile level of 0.092 [1]

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SUL | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/5/15 | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | 2025年5月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月14日 | HMA | 周环比 | | | SP2505 | 5332 | 1. 91% | 2. 93% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6300 | 0. 00% | 1.61% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5378 | 1. 93% | 4. 67% | 现货价 | 针织我针 | 5300 | 0. 00% | 2. 91% | | | SP2509 | 5308 | 1. 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the pulp market is bearish. The decrease in pulp outer - market quotes weakens cost support, terminal demand remains weak, and inventory shows a cumulative trend. The recommended strategy is to take a short - term bearish view or arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 30, 2025, SP2505 was 5116, down 1.99% day - on - day and 6.78% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5120, down 1.12% day - on - day and 5.22% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5066, down 1.67% day - on - day and 5.31% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, down 1.59% day - on - day and 2.36% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5200, down 3.70% day - on - day and 4.59% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4150, down 2.35% day - on - day and 4.60% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, with no change month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, with no change month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In March 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 79.8 tons, unchanged from February; hardwood pulp import volume was 147 tons, down 8.47% from February. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1502 tons in February 2025, down from 1543 tons in January [1] - **Supply - Domestic Output**: From March 13 to April 24, 2025, the domestic output of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated [1] - **Inventory**: As of April 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons, up 3.7 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% increase; the delivery warehouse inventory was 32.10 tons [1] - **Demand - Finished Paper Output**: From March 13 to April 24, 2025, the output of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated, with a slight overall decline [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On April 30, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 80, with a quantile level of 0.834; the Silver Star basis was 1080, with a quantile level of 0.998 [1] - **Import Profit**: On April 30, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 89, with a quantile level of 0.471; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 1004, with a quantile level of 0.057 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side shows that the export of hardwood pulp from major South American exporting countries increased significantly in March, and the sharp decline in the external market weakened the cost support [1]. - The demand side indicates that the prices and production of major wood - pulp paper decreased this week, and paper mills made rigid - demand purchases of pulp [1]. - The inventory side reveals that the pulp port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level overall [1]. - In terms of valuation, the current main pulp futures contract is still at a discount to the Russian needle price, and the futures valuation is low [1]. - The short - term strategy is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data 3.1.1 Futures Prices - On April 25, 2025, SP2505 was 5474, down 0.18% week - on - week and up 1.00% compared to the previous week; SP2507 was 5376, down 0.22% week - on - week and up 0.26% compared to the previous week; SP2509 was 5322, down 0.34% week - on - week and up 0.11% compared to the previous week [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - On April 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6350, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Russian needle coniferous pulp was 5450, unchanged week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4350, down 1.14% week - on - week [1]. 3.1.3 Outer - Market Quotes - In April 2025, the outer - market quote of Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; the outer - market quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; the outer - market quote of Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.1.4 Import Costs - In April 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - In March 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 79.8 tons, unchanged month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147 tons, down 8.47% month - on - month [1]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in February 2025 was 1502 tons, down 2.66% month - on - month [1]. - On April 24, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 18.17 tons; the production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.29 tons [1]. 3.2.2 Inventory - On April 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 32.10 tons [1]. - The inventory of offset paper was 19.10 tons; the inventory of coated paper was 7.80 tons; the inventory of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the inventory of white cardboard was 30.70 tons [1]. 3.2.3 Demand - On April 24, 2025, the production of offset paper was 19.10 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.80 tons; the production of tissue paper was 29.30 tons; the production of white cardboard was 30.70 tons [1]. 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - On April 25, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 74 with a quantile level of 0.832; the Silver Star basis was 974 with a quantile level of 0.988 [1]. - On April 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 61 with a quantile level of 0.724; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 804 with a quantile level of 0.111 [1].