Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai copper increasing by 3.95% to close at 87,720 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines, and the sharp rise in precious metals stimulated the increase in copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,448 tons to 104,792 tons compared with the previous week. The copper market will be in a tight - balance situation in 2024 and an oversupply situation in 2025 [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 3.95% to 87,720 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines, and the sharp rise in precious metals stimulated the increase in copper prices. Domestically, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid - demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,448 tons to 104,792 tons compared with the previous week [4]. 基本面（库存结构） - **PMI**: No specific content is provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market will be in a tight - balance situation in 2024 and an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in a de - stocking state, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][19]. 市场结构 - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content is provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content is provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content is provided.

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that copper inventories showed fluctuations, with the latest level at 139,400 tons, marking a relative low over the past two months [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a 15.42% increase in copper inventories for the week of October 10, reaching 109,690 tons, the highest level in over five months [1] - International copper inventories decreased by 604 tons to 11,673 tons [1] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventory reached 339,525 tons, the highest since May 2003 [1][4] - The data from October 10 shows a consistent increase in COMEX inventory from 327,073 tons on October 3 to 339,525 tons [4] - The overall trend indicates that declining inventories in domestic and international exchanges generally support copper prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a slight increase in price observed on October 10, 2023 [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On October 10, 2023, LME copper futures opened at $10,829.5 per ton and are currently trading at $10,809 per ton, reflecting a 0.30% increase [1] - The intraday trading range for copper futures on October 10 saw a high of $10,833.5 per ton and a low of $10,772.5 per ton [1] Group 2: Previous Trading Day Overview - On October 9, 2023, LME copper opened at $10,652.0, reached a high of $11,000.0, a low of $10,591.0, and closed at $10,776.5, marking a 0.74% increase [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.98, with an import loss of ¥1,166.87 per ton on October 9, compared to a loss of ¥528.49 per ton on the previous trading day [2] - As of October 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 29,703 tons, an increase of 2,880 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 131,050 tons, with 8,425 tons canceled, reflecting an increase of 300 tons, while total copper inventory rose by 275 tons to 139,475 tons [2]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $10,430.5 per ton and currently trading at $10,365 per ton, reflecting a decline of 0.61% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,440 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $10,352.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On September 29, LME copper futures opened at $10,237.0, peaked at $10,450.0, and closed at $10,428.5, marking a 2.19% increase [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.02, with an import loss of -564.17 yuan per ton, improving from -675.54 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of September 29, LME registered copper warrants totaled 134,025 tons, with canceled warrants at 9,875 tons, a decrease of 450 tons, and total copper inventory at 143,900 tons, down by 500 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warrants at 25,603 tons, a decrease of 954 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced high volatility, opening at $10,300 per ton and currently at $10,302.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.17% [1] - The intraday trading range for copper futures included a high of $10,333.5 per ton and a low of $10,254 per ton [1] Group 2 - On September 24, LME copper futures opened at $9,980.0, reached a high of $10,364.0, a low of $9,927.5, and closed at $10,320.0, reflecting a 3.27% increase [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.03, with an import loss of -108.53 yuan per ton, compared to -78.71 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 27,419 tons, a decrease of 308 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 133,000 tons, with 11,775 tons canceled, a reduction of 100 tons, and total copper inventory at 144,775 tons, down by 200 tons [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the median dot plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. The TC/RC fees remain weakly stable, and the factory seasonal maintenance plan will lead to production cuts in September and October. The supply of refined copper remains tight. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized, the previous gains were partly given back, but the fundamentals are still tight. The domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, which will support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips moderately [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The previous trading of the Fed's 50bp interest - rate cut expectation led to a price increase, and after the cut of 25bp was realized, part of the gains were given back. The fundamentals are tight. The domestic copper production is expected to be significantly affected by the reduction of scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support the copper price. With the approaching of the double festivals, downstream stocking will increase, so it is advisable to buy on dips moderately [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower with a gap and fluctuated weakly, closing at 79,620 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 60 yuan/ton. On September 167, 2025, the LME official price was 9,963 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of September 12, the spot TC was - 41.42 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.16 cents/pound. The 8 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply [1][7] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 32,500 tons, a decrease of 822 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 148,900 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 312,800 short tons, a decrease of 26 short tons from the previous period [11]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that recent copper inventories have shown fluctuations, with the latest inventory level at 153,950 tons, marking a decline to a new low in over a month [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, reaching a new high in two and a half months [1] - International copper inventories rose by 2,192 tons to 14,144 tons, while New York copper inventories continued to accumulate, reaching 310,487 tons, the highest level since mid-August 2003 [1] Group 2 - Generally, a continuous decline in domestic and international exchange inventories tends to support copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [1]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices are experiencing a downward trend, opening at $9,972 per ton and currently trading at $9,927.5 per ton, reflecting a decline of 0.47% [1] - On September 3, LME copper futures opened at $10,018, reached a high of $10,038, and closed at $9,974, marking a decrease of 0.39% [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai-London is 8.06, with an import loss of -53.18 yuan per ton, a significant change from the previous day's import profit of 316.06 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - As of September 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts at 19,471 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts stand at 145,050 tons, with canceled receipts increasing by 450 tons to 13,525 tons; total copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158,575 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a current price of $9,969 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.12% from the opening price of $10,018 per ton [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On September 2, LME copper futures opened at $9,896 per ton, reached a high of $10,015 per ton, a low of $9,844 per ton, and closed at $10,013.5 per ton, marking a 1.40% increase [1] - The intraday trading on September 3 saw copper prices peak at $10,038 per ton and dip to $9,965 per ton [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.08, with an import profit and loss of 316.06 yuan per ton, up from 217.18 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - The SHFE warehouse report indicated a decrease of 699 tons in copper futures warehouse receipts, bringing the total to 19,501 tons, with all reductions occurring in Guangdong warehouses, while Shanghai and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Group 3: LME Copper Inventory - As of September 2, LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 145,700 tons, with canceled receipts at 13,075 tons, reflecting a decrease of 100 tons [1] - The total copper inventory at LME was reported at 158,775 tons, also showing a reduction of 100 tons [1]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced a significant increase, opening at $9,896 per ton and currently trading at $9,922.5 per ton, reflecting a rise of 0.48% [1] - The intraday trading range for copper futures saw a high of $9,942 per ton and a low of $9,888 per ton [1] - On September 1, LME copper futures closed at $9,875 per ton, down by 0.31% from the previous day [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.06, indicating an import profit and loss of 217.18 yuan per ton, down from 272.08 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 145,700 tons, with canceled receipts at 13,175 tons, an increase of 125 tons, while total copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 158,875 tons [2]