（文章来源：证券时报网） 中信证券表示，目前A股上市银行算术平均静态股息率回升至4.3%，算术平均静态PB水平则回落至0.61 倍，隐含较高的权益回报空间。二季度以来的市场风格和资金面波动，双向影响板块走势，且上周开始 资金面影响强于市场风格，给配置型资金带来机会。无论是基于慢牛的板块接续、还是长线资金的欠配 空间，银行股绝对收益空间开始显现，建议投资者积极配置。个股选择方面，由于银行板块贝塔表现底 部恢复，个股转向阿尔法策略更具空间，建议关注细分子行业中ROE高且稳定性强、估值空间乐观的银 行。 银行板块23日盘中逆市上扬，截至发稿，南京银行涨约5%，厦门银行、齐鲁银行、苏州银行涨逾3%， 工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、中国银行等涨超2%。 ...

回顾近期行情表现，自7月11日高点以来，银行板块一路震荡向下，截至上周五（9月19日），银行ETF （512800）跟踪的中证银行指数区间已累计下跌13.67%。 中信证券指出，伴随着前期回调，目前A股上市银行算术平均静态股息率回升至4.3%，算术平均静态 PB水平则回落至0.61x，隐含较高的权益回报空间。无论是基于慢牛的板块接续、还是长线资金的欠配 空间，银行股绝对收益空间开始显现，建议投资者积极配置。 9月23日，行情风云变幻，资金再度涌入银行板块。截至发稿，主力资金净流入银行板块逾30亿元，高 居所有行业（申万一级）第2位。银行股集体反弹，南京银行领涨5%，工、农、建三大行等7股涨逾 2%，中行、交行涨逾1%。 | | | | 现价 | 淵鉄 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 601009 | 南京银行 | | 日 53 | | | 2 | 601665 | 齐鲁银行 | 5.79 | 0.15 | 2.66% | | 3 | 002966 | 苏州银行 | 8.23 | 0.22 | 2.75% | | 4 | 601398 | 工商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [11] Core Insights - Recent adjustments in bank stocks have led to accelerated share buybacks by state-owned shareholders and management, indicating strong recognition of investment value [2][6] - The systematic increase in holdings by state-owned shareholders reflects a demand to optimize financial equity layouts amid asset scarcity, highlighting the core advantages of low valuations, stable profits, and dividends in bank stocks [7][41] - The report emphasizes the long-term investment value of regional leading city commercial banks, particularly after two rounds of debt restructuring [7][41] Summary by Sections Shareholder Activity - In the past week, banks such as Qingdao Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank have disclosed progress in share buybacks by state-owned shareholders, showcasing their confidence in investment value [2][6] - Nanjing Bank has seen its state-owned shareholder, Nanjing High-tech, increase its stake by 1.05%, bringing its total holding to 9.99% [6][41] - Other banks, including Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank, have also reported significant buyback plans, with Suzhou Bank's shareholders increasing their holdings by 856 million yuan earlier this year [6][41] Market Performance - The banking index has experienced a cumulative decline of 4.1% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.6% and the ChiNext index by 6.4% [9][20] - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term investment logic remains solid, with individual stocks like Qilu Bank showing resilience due to management buybacks [9][20] Dividend and Earnings Outlook - The report notes that the expected dividend yield for leading city commercial banks has risen to around 5%, with specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank reaching yields of 5.5% [7][8] - The stability of the banking sector's fundamentals is highlighted, with expectations for net interest income to maintain stable growth despite market fluctuations [8][40] - Mid-term dividends are set to commence, with several banks planning to distribute dividends in the fourth quarter, creating an attractive entry point for absolute return funds [8][40] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the recent valuation adjustments have created significant investment opportunities in bank stocks, particularly for those focusing on dividend yields [7][44] - The ongoing adjustments in the bond market and the anticipated stabilization of loan interest rates are expected to support the banks' revenue streams [8][44]

Core Viewpoint - Several major shareholders and executives of listed banks have taken the opportunity to increase their holdings during the recent stock price fluctuations, reflecting confidence in the banks' fundamentals and future prospects, as well as highlighting the long-term investment value of bank stocks at current valuations, particularly their high dividend yields [2][5]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Since August, multiple listed banks, including Huaxia Bank, Chengdu Bank, Suzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Shanghai Bank, have announced plans or progress regarding share buybacks by major shareholders or executives [2][5]. - For instance, Nanjing Bank's major shareholder, Zijin Group's subsidiary, increased its holdings by 56.78 million shares, accounting for 0.46% of the total share capital, between July 18 and September 10 [2]. - Huaxia Bank completed its buyback plan by acquiring 4.23 million shares for a total of 31.9 million yuan, after initially announcing a plan to buy back at least 30 million yuan worth of shares [3][4]. Group 2: Market Context - The banking sector index has experienced a significant decline since reaching a peak around July 10, with smaller banks facing even larger drops [3][4]. - The stock price of Huaxia Bank fell from a high of 8.72 yuan per share on July 10 to 7.28 yuan per share by September 9 [4]. - Chengdu Bank's buyback plan was delayed due to its stock price exceeding the set upper limit, but it resumed with a total investment of 170 million yuan over a short period [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent buybacks by major shareholders and executives signal their recognition of the banks' long-term investment value and confidence in future operations, which can help stabilize stock price expectations [5][6]. - The banking sector is viewed as a defensive investment during market downturns due to its low valuations and high dividend characteristics, providing relatively stable returns [6]. - The banking sector index has seen a 64% increase from December 2023 to July 2025, with a maximum drawdown of over 10% in 2023 [7]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have increasingly targeted undervalued, large-cap, low-volatility banks, with several banks experiencing multiple stake increases from these funds [7]. - Public funds have also shown a rising interest in bank stocks, with the proportion of active public funds in bank stocks reaching 4.9% by the end of Q2, the highest since Q2 2021 [8]. - Despite the inflow of funds, there are concerns regarding net interest margin pressures and potential asset quality issues due to the real estate downturn, leading to some portfolio adjustments [8].

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has seen its A-shares rise over 5% on September 4, reaching a historical high and surpassing the market capitalization of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) for the first time, with ABC's total market value approximately 2.55 trillion yuan compared to ICBC's 2.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Performance Comparison - ABC reported a net profit of 139.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%, and operating income of 369.8 billion yuan, up 0.72% year-on-year [1] - In contrast, ICBC's operating income for the same period was 409.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, but its net profit decreased by 1.4% to 168.1 billion yuan [2] - ABC's A-shares have increased over 30% year-to-date, while ICBC's A-shares have only risen about 10% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The banking sector has been active this year, with several banks reaching new highs in stock prices [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a turning point for Chinese bank stocks, with expected growth in average pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) and net profit for the second quarter [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates a stabilization and recovery in bank earnings, with expectations for improved net interest margins and asset quality [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to see substantial performance improvements in the second half of 2025, driven by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, controlled interest margins, and improved asset risk expectations [3]

Group 1 - Bank stocks continued to strengthen towards the end of trading on September 4, with Agricultural Bank rising over 5% and Postal Savings Bank increasing by more than 3%, both reaching historical highs [1] - The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks in the 2025 semi-annual report were 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively, showing an increase of 2.8% and 2.0% compared to the first quarter [1] - There is a viewpoint suggesting that 2025 may mark the end of the current performance downturn cycle for banks [1] Group 2 - Investment in bank stocks is returning to a fundamental framework, with a focus on the re-evaluation of business models as the core issue for bank stock investment in the first half of 2025 [1] - It is recommended to pay attention to absolute return opportunities due to the upward adjustment in industry valuations [1] - The difference between dividend yield and risk-free yield has expanded, indicating an increase in the potential allocation power of bank stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed banks are increasingly implementing mid-term dividends for 2025, with state-owned banks leading in generosity, and several banks announcing mid-term dividends for the first time since their listing [1][2]. Group 1: State-Owned Banks - The six major state-owned banks have all announced dividend plans, with a total cash dividend amounting to 204.657 billion yuan. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leads with a dividend of 50.396 billion yuan [2]. - China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China follow with mid-term dividends of 48.61 billion yuan and 41.82 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - Bank of China announced a mid-term dividend of 35.25 billion yuan, maintaining a high payout ratio of 30% [2]. Group 2: Joint-Stock Banks - Several joint-stock banks, including China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Minsheng Bank, have confirmed their mid-term dividend plans for 2025, with CITIC Bank's cash dividend exceeding 10.46 billion yuan and a payout ratio of 30.7% [2][3]. - China Merchants Bank's mid-term profit distribution cash dividend is set at 35% of its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: City Commercial Banks - City commercial banks such as Shanghai Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changsha Bank have also announced mid-term dividends, with Changsha Bank proposing a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 804 million yuan [3]. Group 4: Overall Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector has shown a recovery in performance, with A-share listed banks reporting revenue, pre-provision profit (PPOP), and net profit growth rates of 1.0%, 1.1%, and 0.8% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - Non-interest income has driven performance improvements, particularly in state-owned banks, while joint-stock banks have shown slightly weaker core revenue performance [4]. Group 5: Market Trends and Investment Outlook - Despite recent adjustments in the banking sector, the CSI Bank Index has risen by 9.05% year-to-date, with three banks seeing stock price increases exceeding 30% [5]. - Analysts suggest that the banking sector offers stability and potential for long-term investment, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance report of China's six major state-owned banks for the first half of 2025 demonstrates their strong profitability and stability, reinforcing their appeal to conservative investors who value safety and consistent returns [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The six major banks collectively earned over 690 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025, showcasing robust profitability [1]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) led with a revenue of 427.09 billion yuan, although its net profit decreased by 1.46% year-on-year to 168.80 billion yuan [3]. - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 369.90 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 2.5% to 139.94 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Asset Quality - All six banks reported a year-on-year decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, indicating improved asset quality [5]. - Postal Savings Bank of China had the lowest NPL ratio at 0.92%, while ICBC and China Construction Bank both reported NPL ratios of 1.33% [6]. - The banks maintained high provision coverage ratios, with ICBC at 217.71% and Agricultural Bank at 295% [5][6]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for the six banks collectively declined, with the range of decrease between 0.08% and 0.21% [7]. - Postal Savings Bank had the highest NIM at 1.7%, while ICBC and Agricultural Bank reported NIMs of 1.3% and 1.32%, respectively [7][9]. - Future expectations indicate that while NIM may continue to decline, the rate of decrease is expected to slow down [10][11]. Group 4: Dividend Distribution - The six banks plan to distribute over 200 billion yuan in dividends, reflecting their status as "cash cows" in the capital market [12]. - The dividend payout ratio for most banks is around 30%, with ICBC proposing a dividend of 1.414 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 50.40 billion yuan [12][13]. - The consistent high dividend payouts enhance the attractiveness of these banks to long-term investors [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of China's six major state-owned banks in the first half of 2025 demonstrates their strong profitability and investment value, with a total net profit exceeding 690 billion yuan and a total dividend payout expected to exceed 200 billion yuan, reinforcing their status as "cash cows" in the capital market [2][15]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The six major banks achieved a total net profit of over 690 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with all banks announcing mid-term dividend plans totaling over 200 billion yuan [2][15]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported the highest operating income of 427.09 billion yuan, but its net profit decreased by 1.46% year-on-year to 168.80 billion yuan [5][6]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) ranked third in operating income with 369.90 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 2.5% to 139.94 billion yuan [7]. Group 2: Asset Quality - All six banks reported a year-on-year decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, indicating improved asset quality [8][9]. - Postal Savings Bank of China had the lowest NPL ratio at 0.92%, while ICBC and Construction Bank both reported NPL ratios of 1.33% [8][9]. - The provision coverage ratios remained high, with ICBC at 217.71% and ABC at 295%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [8][9]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for all six banks showed a collective decline, with the range of decrease between 0.08% to 0.21% [10][11]. - Postal Savings Bank led with a NIM of 1.7%, followed by Construction Bank at 1.4% and ABC at 1.32% [10][13]. - The banks' management expressed expectations for a continued decline in NIM, but with a narrowing rate of decrease in the second half of the year [14]. Group 4: Dividend Distribution - The total expected dividend payout from the six banks is over 200 billion yuan, with dividend rates generally around 30% [15][18]. - ICBC plans to distribute approximately 50.40 billion yuan, while ABC intends to distribute about 41.82 billion yuan, both maintaining a 30% payout ratio [15][16]. - The consistent high dividend payout ratios reflect the banks' confidence in their operational stability and aim to attract long-term investors [17][18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The revenue growth rate of banks has rebounded in the second quarter, with notable performance from leading city commercial banks [6][40] - Interest income growth remains stable, with a reduction in the decline of interest margins, benefiting from improved funding costs [6][40] - Non-interest income growth has also recovered, supported by improved middle-income growth and stabilization in the bond market [6][40] - The overall asset quality of various banks remains stable, with a general decline in non-performing loan ratios [7][42] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - As of August 22, 2025, ten listed banks have disclosed their semi-annual performance, with a general rebound in revenue growth in the second quarter, particularly notable for Jiangyin Bank, which exceeded expectations with double-digit growth [6][40] Profitability - The net profit growth rate for listed banks in the first half of the year is generally stable, with banks like Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Jiangyin Bank achieving over 15% high growth [6][42] Scale and Market Position - City commercial banks have shown strong expansion, with Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Ningbo Bank leading in credit growth, benefiting from their competitive advantages in developed regions [7][42] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of various banks is stable, with a general decline in non-performing loan ratios due to rapid expansion and write-offs [7][42] - The provision coverage ratio has slowed its decline, with seven listed banks showing a quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter [7][42] Market Performance - The Changjiang Bank Index rose by 1.1% this week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 Index by 3.0% [8][20] - The average dividend yield of the six major state-owned banks is 3.85%, with a spread of 207 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield [23][26]