[Table_Title] 递推法下机构久期全解析 固定收益丨深度报告 ——走在债市曲线之前系列（四） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 基于优化后的递推法，本文构建了六类金融机构久期测算体系，该方法相较于传统重仓加权法 和回归法在普适性、更新频率及敏感性方面更具优势，能够有效跟踪机构久期变化。研究发现 各机构久期分化显著，久期排序为：保险>券商自营>农商行>债基>理财>货基，久期分化背后 反映的是各机构配债思路和风格的显著区别。部分机构久期的变动与收益率走势密切相关，基 金和券商自营久期在提前 2 期时与 10Y 国债收益率的相关性最强，具有一定前瞻性，我们据此 构建了 10Y 国债择时策略，回测表明发出买入信号后 3 日的胜率达 62.87%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

周五（6月6日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨11.50个基点，报4.5056%，本周累计上涨 10.52个基点，整体交投于4.3101%-4.5116%区间，周三至周五呈现出U形反转。 两年期美债收益率涨11.64个基点，报4.0365%，北京时间19:41打破日内稍早持稳于3.92%平盘下方的状 态，20:30发布美国非农就业报告后显著走高，本周累涨13.90个基点，交投于3.8252%-4.0407%区间。 ...

美国10年期国债收益率涨10个基点报4.49%。 ...

智通财经6月7日电，美国10年期国债收益率涨10个基点报4.49%。 ...

美国2至5年期国债收益率上涨至少10个基点。 ...

美国5年期国债收益率上涨10个基点，至4.09%。 ...

Group 1 - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.09% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on Canada's 10-year government bonds has continued to rise following the release of employment data, increasing by 4.5 basis points to reach 3.300% [1]

金十数据6月6日讯，加拿大皇家银行BlueBay资产管理公司的固定收益类首席投资官马克•道丁说，两年 期和30年期美债收益率之差将进一步扩大，使收益率曲线变陡。道丁说，对美国赤字的担忧将加剧这些 变动。他说，美国参议院目前正在就特朗普的预算法案进行谈判，似乎没有什么证据表明美国的财政赤 字会在短期内下降。 美国2-30年期国债收益率曲线可能进一步趋陡 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]