智通财经APP获悉，本月的大部分时间里，华尔街交易员纷纷涌入股市和债市，押注美联储准备再次降息，并等待美 联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发出明确的宽松信号。周五，鲍威尔在一场重磅演讲中如期释放鸽派信息，随即引爆4月以来 最猛烈的跨市场上涨。 美国国债价格上涨，两年期国债收益率一度下跌12个基点，在鲍威尔表示"风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策立 场"后，期货交易员开始押注9 月份降息的可能性很大。 标普500指数从连续五天的下跌中反弹，上涨了1.5%，收盘价接近历史最高水平。与此同时，受利率和经济敏感型股 票的推动，罗素2000指数飙升近4%。美元下跌，比特币等风险资产上涨，因为市场预期美联储将通过政策来刺激经济 增长。黄金上涨1%。 随着鲍威尔开启降息大门，美国股债大幅上涨 Miller Tabak + Co LLC首席市场策略师Matt Maley表示："这对鲍威尔主席来说是一个重要的转变。现在市场面临的问 题是，对经济增长放缓的担忧是否会导致企业盈利下降，但美联储不会给投资者带来重大不利影响。" 鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上的讲话备受金融市场关注。本月早些时候，市场几乎已消化美联储将在下 个月会议上降 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Non-farm payroll data weakened [2] - Silver: Small rebound [2] - Copper: LME inventory increased, prices under pressure [2] - Zinc: Weak and volatile [2] - Lead: Inventory decreased, prices supported [2] - Tin: Range-bound [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Intensified long-short game, narrow range for nickel prices [2] - Stainless steel: Constrained by supply-demand reality, raw material costs limit downside [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Gold T+D were 782.50 and 779.92 respectively, with daily increases of 0.14% and 0.56%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T+D were 9075 and 9052 respectively, with daily increases of 0.40% and 0.60% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 1 to 955.94, and SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 23 to 15,044.48. Inventory changes were also observed in Shanghai and Comex [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a neutral and slightly positive outlook [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,580, up 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78070, down 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,635, down 0.76% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk changed compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850, and various spreads also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22380, up 0.56%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754, up 0.90% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc changed compared to the previous day [13]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels of zinc also showed different changes [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16775, up 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5, down 0.53% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead changed compared to the previous day [17]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels of lead changed, with inventory decreasing [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 267,490, up 0.38%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,300, up 0.53% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract and LME Tin changed compared to the previous day [20]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Inventory of Shanghai and LME tin decreased, and various spreads also changed [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [26]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20560, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3227. The cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in the futures market changed compared to the previous day [27]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels in the aluminum industry chain showed different changes [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,910, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,960 [31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Nickel and stainless - steel main contracts changed compared to the previous day [31]. - **Industry News**: There were various industry news related to nickel, such as production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [31][33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened; Silver: Slight rebound; Copper: LME inventory increased, price under pressure; Zinc: Weak and volatile; Lead: Inventory decreased, price supported; Tin: Range - bound; Aluminum: Range - bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum; Nickel: Intensified long - short game, narrow - range fluctuation of nickel price; Stainless steel: Constrained by supply - demand reality, raw material cost limits downside space; Lithium carbonate: Wide - range fluctuation, resource - end disturbances not yet settled; Industrial silicon: Weak fundamental pattern, focus on market sentiment; Polysilicon: Increased news disturbances; Iron ore: Fluctuated repeatedly; Rebar: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range fluctuation; Hot - rolled coil: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range fluctuation; Ferrosilicon: Market information disturbances, wide - range fluctuation; Silicomanganese: Market information disturbances, wide - range fluctuation; Coke: Strong and volatile; Coking coal: Strong and volatile; Log: Fluctuated repeatedly; p - Xylene: Increasing supply - demand pressure, weakening trend; PTA: Negative demand feedback, weakening trend; MEG: Rebound driven by coal price recovery, go long MEG and short PTA/PX; Rubber: Fluctuated; Synthetic rubber: Short - term fluctuated; Asphalt: Consolidated after decline; LLDPE: Still under pressure; PP: Spot fluctuated, light trading; Caustic soda: Expectation for peak - season demand; Pulp: Fluctuated; Glass: Stable price of original sheet; Methanol: Fluctuated under pressure; Urea: International price increase may drive short - term speculation; Styrene: Compress profit and take profit, short in the short term; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market; LPG: Weak cost support; Propylene: Loose supply - demand pattern, short - term weak and volatile; PVC: Range - bound; Fuel oil: Narrow - range adjustment at night, mainly short - term fluctuated; Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weaker than high - sulfur in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market declined again; Container shipping index (European line): Hold short positions as appropriate, may continue to be weak; Staple fiber: Off - season demand, weak and volatile; Bottle chips: Weak and volatile; Offset printing paper: Fluctuated at a low level, lack of upward momentum; Pure benzene: Weak and volatile; Palm oil: Repeated macro - sentiment, mainly go long at a low level; Soybean oil: Fluctuated at a high level, pay attention to the Sino - US trade agreement; Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose and then fell, Dalian soybean meal followed the decline; Soybean No.1: Followed soybeans, declined and fluctuated; Corn: Weak operation; Sugar: India's restorative production increase; Cotton: Pay attention to the impact of external markets; Eggs: Bullish expectation of spot price disappointed; Live pigs: Near - end spot pressure slightly exceeded expectations; Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 782.50 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - closing price was 784.40 with a night - increase of 0.01%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9075 with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the night - closing price was 9178.00 with a night - increase of 1.15% [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - strong sentiment [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US data triggered stagflation concerns, US stocks and bonds fell, and gold rose slightly; China's central bank and other seven departments will support new - type industrialization; The US July ISM services index was only 50.1, etc. [8][11]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai copper's main contract was 78,580 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - closing price was 78070 with a night - decline of 0.65%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,635 with a decline of 0.76% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products; Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [12][14]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 22380 with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754 with an increase of 0.90% [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds; If non - farm payrolls deteriorate further, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [16]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai lead's main contract was 16775 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5 with a decline of 0.53% [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US July ISM services PMI was only 50.1; Trump will make decisions on new Fed governors [19]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai tin's main contract was 267,490 with a daily increase of 0.38%, and the night - closing price was 266,950 with a night - increase of 0.30%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk was 33,300 with an increase of 0.53% [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including US economic data and Trump's policy announcements [22][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 20560, the LME aluminum 3M was 2565. The closing price of Shanghai alumina's main contract was 3227, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20005 [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's policy on Fed governors and tariff announcements [31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120,910, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,960 [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesian nickel - related projects have production changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 67,680, and the closing price of the 2511 contract was 67,840 [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased; The domestic energy storage market had procurement and bidding activities [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,450, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,330 [42]. - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral and relatively bullish sentiment respectively [44]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Hebei Province promotes green - electricity direct - connection projects [43]. Iron Ore - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 798.5 with an increase of 8.0 and a rise - rate of 1.01% [46]. - **Trend Intensity**: Iron ore trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [46]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [46]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Performance**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,233 with an increase of 44 and a rise - rate of 1.38%. The closing price of HC2510 was 3,457 with an increase of 64 and a rise - rate of 1.89% [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production, inventory, and demand data changes; Policy on industry competition and capacity governance [51][52]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Performance**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5716, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6018 [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [57]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price changes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; Manganese ore price changes [55][58]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: The closing price of JM2509 was 1035 with an increase of 29.5 and a rise - rate of 2.9%. The closing price of J2509 was 1634.5 with an increase of 19.5 and a rise - rate of 1.2% [60]. - **Trend Intensity**: Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [62]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [61]. Log - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 829, with a daily decline of 1.5% [64]. - **Trend Intensity**: Log trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment [66]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [66]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Price Performance**: No specific price data provided in a summary form, but p - xylene has increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has negative demand feedback and a weakening trend; MEG rebounds driven by coal price recovery [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: No relevant content provided. - **Macro and Industry News**: No relevant content provided.

Core Insights - Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, ending a five-month streak of inflows, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [1][3] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [1][2] Group 1: Regional Performance - North America led the outflows with a net withdrawal of $1.54 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment due to a temporary easing of trade tensions and a strong stock market rebound, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3] - Asia saw a net outflow of $489.4 million, primarily driven by Chinese investors, as the easing of trade tensions and stock market recovery diminished the need for gold [4] - Europe was the only region to record inflows, with a modest increase of $225 million, largely attributed to stable inflows from France amid concerns over economic growth and political instability [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, coupled with cautious remarks regarding inflation and labor market risks, has led to expectations of sustained high rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Despite the outflows, global gold ETF inflows for 2025 remain positive at $30 billion, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons since the beginning of the year [2]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a pullback after encountering resistance, but still maintain a bullish outlook supported by short-term moving averages and a breakout trend line [1][4][10] Price Movement Summary - On June 3, gold opened at $3382.12 per ounce, reached a high of $3391.94, then fell to a low of $3333.13 before closing at $3353.20, resulting in a daily decline of $28.92 or 0.86% [1] - The price fluctuation for the day was $58.81 [1] Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index rebounded from a six-week low, exerting pressure on gold prices, particularly after the increase in job vacancies reported for April [3] - The increase in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% and ongoing geopolitical tensions are contributing to support for gold prices [4][7] - The market anticipates potential adjustments in U.S. employment data, which may influence gold price movements [6][8] Technical Analysis - Gold prices remain above the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [12] - The monthly chart shows that despite recent volatility, gold maintains a bullish trend above the May moving average [10] - The weekly chart indicates that gold is supported by the 10-week moving average and may target the $3500 level [13] Economic Outlook - The OECD has revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.6% from 2.2%, reflecting concerns over economic performance due to tariff increases [8] - Geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are expected to keep gold prices elevated in the medium to long term [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns, with expectations for gold to potentially reach $3500 or higher in the near future [1][3][8]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - Concerns over tariffs, particularly the potential increase in import duties on steel and aluminum by the Trump administration, have also contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold [3][5]. - Weak economic data from the U.S. has further supported gold prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the next 12 to 18 months [3][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices opened at $3298.53 per ounce, reaching a high of $3382.87 and closing at $3381.49, marking a daily increase of $89.56 or 2.72% [1]. - The recent breakout above the downward trendline has shifted the resistance into support, indicating a bullish outlook for gold [1][11]. - The monthly chart shows that gold has maintained its bullish trend despite recent volatility, with support from the 5-month moving average [9][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of continued high-level adjustments or further increases in price over the next one to two years [8][12]. - The article suggests that any pullbacks in gold prices should be viewed as buying opportunities, given the overall bullish trend and geopolitical uncertainties [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising global risk aversion leading to a continuous increase in gold prices, with significant geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties driving this trend [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of March 31, the spot gold price reached a record high of $3120 per ounce, marking an increase of 1.1% on that day, while COMEX gold futures surpassed $3140 per ounce, also setting a new historical peak [3]. - Year-to-date, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures have seen an increase of over 18%, significantly outperforming major global stock indices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent statements from U.S. President Trump regarding threats to Russia and Iran have intensified market risk aversion, contributing to the surge in gold prices [3][4]. - Trump's comments included potential secondary tariffs on Russian oil and military threats against Iran, which have heightened geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The core PCE inflation rate for February rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, which has led to increased concerns about inflation and potential stagflation [4]. - Anticipation of upcoming tariffs and economic reports has caused global stock markets to decline, with fund managers reducing portfolio risks in response to the uncertain economic outlook [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the combination of rising inflation and geopolitical tensions will maintain upward pressure on gold prices in the medium to long term [4][8]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from U.S. trade partners could further exacerbate market volatility, reinforcing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8].