Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan supports continuing the interest rate cuts in the last meeting of the year, positioning himself as a relatively dovish figure within the Fed's decision-makers [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan believes that continuing to lower interest rates remains a reasonable policy choice, questioning whether the economic fundamentals have changed enough to warrant a shift in this policy path [3]. - The Federal Reserve recently decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, following a previous cut in September, although Milan had advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points during the meeting [3][5]. - There is a noticeable divergence among Fed officials regarding the economic outlook, with some expressing concerns about inflation risks and being cautious about further rate cuts in December [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Milan acknowledges that official economic data presents challenges for assessment but emphasizes that current inflation levels are below expectations and the job market remains stable [5]. - Recent employment data indicates an increase of 42,000 jobs in the private sector for October, slightly above market expectations, but Milan suggests that overall job growth potential remains moderate, with wage growth slowing [7]. - These indicators imply that interest rates should be slightly lower than current levels, according to Milan's analysis [7].

美联储主席鲍威尔认为，美联储应致力于实现中性货币政策。他给出的理由是，劳动力市场存在衰退风险（近期疲软的就业增长凸显了这一点），这一风险 抵消了进口关税上涨带来的通胀风险。因此，我预计美联储将在下周的政策会议上把联邦基金利率下调25个基点——因为包括鲍威尔在内的官员认为，当前 略高于4.0%的利率已超过"既不刺激也不抑制增长"的中性水平。 但事实果真如此吗？经济持续的增长动能与这一观点相悖。亚特兰大联储的"GDP Now"模型预测，第三季度实际GDP增速将达3.8%，高于9月初3.0%的预 估。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）9月发布的经济预测中，2025年、2026年和2027年的中位增速预期也均有所上调。 前纽约联储主席杜德利对鲍威尔的中性利率判断表示质疑，并警告称，若货币政策实际上没有抑制经济发展，进一步降息可能是一个会引发通胀的政策失 误。 前纽约联储主席杜德利（Bill Dudley） 周三撰文指出，若美联储下周降息，其决策在一定程度上将基于一个关键假设：当前货币政策处于限制性状态，正抑 制经济增长。但这一观点可能暗藏风险。他的论述如下。 在我看来，金融环境宽松程度已远超合理范围——既不符合美联储的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's most hawkish policy committee member, Naoki Tamura, advocates for an interest rate hike due to increasing inflation risks, maintaining his stance from the previous month's policy meeting [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Naoki Tamura believes the Bank of Japan is at a stage where it should consider raising policy rates to adjust the degree of monetary easing and bring rates closer to neutral levels [1] - The probability of a rate hike during the upcoming meeting has dropped significantly from approximately 70% to around 15% since the end of September [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Tamura suggests that the Bank of Japan may achieve its stable 2% inflation target sooner than the official forecast of the second half of the prediction period ending March 2028 [2] - He warns that if the central bank falls behind in addressing inflation, it may have to raise rates rapidly to stabilize prices, potentially causing severe damage to the Japanese economy [2] Group 3: Political Context - Recent political developments in Japan have led to market volatility, particularly following the unexpected victory of a pro-monetary easing candidate in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election [2] - The dissolution of the ruling coalition has cast doubt on the prospects of the pro-easing candidate becoming the next Prime Minister [2] Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate - Tamura asserts that Japan's neutral interest rate is at least around 1% and emphasizes the need for careful assessment during the gradual rate hike process [2] - He indicates that a single rate increase would be insufficient, as the current policy rate remains significantly below the neutral rate [2]

（原标题：乌拉圭央行下调基准利率至8.25%） 乌拉圭《界限》2025年10月7日报道，乌央行货币政策委员会决定将基准利率下调50个基点至8.25%，这是央行连 续第三次降息。行长托洛萨表示，只要通胀保持在目标区间内且企业预期继续下降，降息趋势将持续，逐步向中性货 币政策过渡。 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]