Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on soybean and corn futures ahead of the USDA supply and demand report, questioning whether the market can find hope in export demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean and corn futures are facing downward pressure as the USDA supply and demand report approaches [1] - The market is looking for signs of recovery through potential export demand [1] Group 2: USDA Report Implications - The upcoming USDA report is critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics in the agricultural sector [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the report for insights that could influence future pricing and demand trends [1]

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：对农场移民的突袭将损害美国经济。 ...

【环球网报道 记者 赵建东】美国"政治新闻网"11日报道称，根据联邦政府内部记录和匿名消息人士透 露，美政府效率部（DOGE）出现核心人员集体离职潮，过去六个月内已有至少八名核心成员离职，文 章称，这标志着DOGE已从特朗普政府的核心退出。 报道称，白宫发言人哈里森·菲尔兹在一份声明中宣称"政府效率部正全速推进工作，已为美国人节省超 过1700亿美元。"还有白宫高级官员解释称，许多DOGE离职者属于"特聘政府雇员"，其本身任命设有 期限，"DOGE高层官员从未计划在政府中谋求长期职业发展。" "政治新闻网"称，DOGE现今的工作比早期高调裁员行动更具针对性，其近期工作包括删除闲置政府网 站及电话线路、注销废弃软件许可证，协助美国国家气象局升级系统等。 今年5月30日，马斯克从政府效率部离任时，特朗普在白宫举办仪式友好相送。6月3日，马斯克突然公 开痛批"大而美"法案"令人作呕"，并在6月5日与特朗普爆发"口水战"。特朗普称马斯克"疯了"，马斯克 称特朗普"忘恩负义"。 虽然两人的关系随后一度出现缓和迹象，但随着"大而美"法案正式成法，马斯克在7月5日宣布成立新政 党"美国党"，宣称该党将参加明年中期选举，争夺 ...

Group 1 - The scale of US national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 123%, significantly exceeding international warning levels [1] - The "big and beautiful" plan proposed by Trump has raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, accelerating the increase in US debt ratio [1] - The expansion of debt implies increased repayment pressure, especially amid declining dollar and US government credit, leading to market skepticism about repayment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The dollar has transitioned from being gold-backed to oil-backed, maintaining its dominant position in international trade and finance for nearly 80 years [2] - The dollar's unique status has led to its role as a global "credit standard," with countries accumulating US Treasury bonds to bolster their own international credit [2] - The expansion of US national debt is a direct result of the expansion of dollar credit [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve, through modern monetary theory, creates incremental currency based on the quantity of national debt, ensuring that excessive dollar issuance does not lead to currency devaluation [3] - Geopolitical risks and the global shift towards green energy are diminishing the dollar's stability, while the Fed's balance sheet expansion has significantly increased dollar liquidity [3] - The Fed faces challenges in maintaining dollar credit amid rising geopolitical tensions and increased liquidity [3] Group 4 - Trump's intention to restructure the Federal Reserve aims to lower financing costs and ensure the sustainability of US debt issuance [4] - The potential loss of Fed independence could undermine its ability to control inflation and maintain the dollar's value [4] Group 5 - Trump's tariff policies aim to reverse the US trade deficit and compel capital to return to American manufacturing, but this could undermine the global trade system that supports the dollar's status [5] - The US's unilateral financial sanctions and misuse of the SWIFT system are eroding the dollar's international credibility [5][6] Group 6 - The US government credit is experiencing marginal decline due to political polarization and the erosion of policy continuity, leading to skepticism about the government's commitments [7] - The US has lost its leadership role in international organizations, further diminishing its credibility [8] Group 7 - The growing fiscal deficit has led to a vicious cycle of increased borrowing and rising debt service costs, with interest payments projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in FY2024 [9] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa, reflecting concerns over the government's creditworthiness [9] Group 8 - In response to declining demand for US Treasuries, the US government is exploring the issuance of stablecoins to support debt issuance [10][11] - The GENIUS Act aims to establish a framework for stablecoins backed by US Treasury bonds, potentially increasing demand for Treasuries [11][12] Group 9 - Stablecoins have become significant buyers of US Treasuries, with projections indicating that stablecoin issuance could lead to an additional $1.6 trillion in Treasury demand by 2028 [12][13] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoins be backed by short-term US Treasuries, ensuring safety and liquidity [13]

Group 1 - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance official, Melo, stated that the analysis of the impact of U.S. tariffs is still in the early stages [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant volatility, with a peak increase of 45 points that was later erased, resulting in the longest upper shadow line of the year, indicating uncertainty in market direction [1] - The analysis suggests that the three main driving forces for the market remain intact: U.S. monetary easing, potential relaxation in the domestic real estate sector, and declining interest rates [2][3] - The domestic real estate sector is expected to see a positive impact from potential policy relaxations, which could stabilize the market and benefit related stocks [2][3] Group 2 - The recent adjustment in the banking sector, which saw a decline of 1.91%, was a significant factor in the market's volatility, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to supportive policies for insurance companies [3][4] - New regulations for insurance companies allow for a longer evaluation period of 3 to 5 years, reducing the pressure to achieve short-term performance and encouraging long-term investments in the A-share market [4][6] - The potential increase in insurance funds' investment in the A-share market could lead to an influx of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan, significantly stabilizing the market [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding defense support are focused on specific details, with indications that U.S. aid may not only continue but potentially increase despite recent media reports suggesting cuts or delays [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has signaled a commitment to continue and possibly increase defense support for Ukraine, countering recent media narratives about potential reductions [1] - Ukrainian officials are working closely with U.S. teams to clarify the specifics of aid distribution, including types of materials, delivery timelines, and transportation locations [1] - The emphasis on detailing these aspects is crucial for ensuring the effective implementation of the aid provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, criticized Europe's declining competitiveness compared to the US and Asia, highlighting a significant drop in Europe's GDP share from 90% to 65% of the US over the past 10 to 15 years [2] Group 1: European Competitiveness - Dimon emphasized the need for Europe to reduce trade barriers and improve capital markets and banking union to attract investment and boost growth [2] - He pointed out the "sovereignty deficit" in Europe regarding energy, critical minerals, data centers, satellite communications, and digital services due to rising geopolitical tensions and deteriorating trade relations with the US [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Investor sentiment towards Europe has turned positive due to expectations of significant fiscal stimulus in Germany, increased defense spending, interest rate cuts, and relative political stability compared to the US [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the EU faces challenges in implementing growth reforms and solidifying trade relations with the US, with ongoing tariff agreements remaining unresolved [3] Group 3: US Market Dynamics - Dimon noted a complacency in the current market, with investors seemingly indifferent to the potential impacts of new tariffs announced by President Trump, which include a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and copper, and a 200% tariff threat on the pharmaceutical industry [3] - He expressed concerns about rising inflation in the US, suggesting that the probability of interest rate hikes is higher than most expect, estimating it at 40%-50% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance states that the impact of a 50% tariff from the United States will be concentrated in specific industries, with limited effects on growth expectations for 2025 [1] Industry Impact - The 50% tariff is expected to primarily affect certain targeted sectors rather than the overall economy [1] - The overall growth forecast for 2025 remains largely unchanged despite the potential tariff implications [1]

Group 1 - The Kremlin characterized the U.S. plan to provide weapons to Ukraine through NATO as a commercial activity [1]