新华社纽约7月29日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普29日表示，美国可能对印度输美产品征收20%至 25%的关税，但尚未最后决定。 特朗普当天乘专机从英国返美途中对媒体记者说，印度对美国产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对 美国产品征收的关税，"你（印度）不能这么做"。 特朗普25日表示，美国将向近200个贸易伙伴致信，确定美国对这些国家产品的关税税率。他此前威 胁，将从8月1日开始向未能与美国达成贸易协议的贸易伙伴征收高关税。 美国贸易代表格里尔28日表示，美国需要更多时间与印度谈判，以评估印度向美国开放更多市场的意 愿。 对于特朗普最新关税威胁，印度官方尚未回应。 特朗普4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，美印双方举行了多轮会谈，但谈判仍陷于僵局。据报道，印 度在保护农业和乳业方面持强硬立场，双方还在购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在分歧。有媒体报道称，印度 计划于8月中旬与美方重启范围更广的贸易谈判。 美国商务部数据显示，2024年，美国与印度的商品贸易金额大约为1288亿美元，印度对美贸易顺差为 458亿美元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, while silver is expected to break through and rise. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation. Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories. Tin and aluminum will fluctuate within a range. Alumina is driven by short - term sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trend**: The price of gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44, down 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 774.32, up 0.49% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 36,087 compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 2,732. The SPDR Gold ETF's position remained unchanged at 956.23 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The US court started oral arguments on Thursday, and the "reciprocal tariffs" face the "risk of cancellation" [5][9]. Silver - **Price and Trend**: Silver is expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195, down 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 9234.00, up 0.46% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 611,380 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 5,678. The SLV Silver ETF's position increased by 14 to 15,173.92 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trend**: Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,840, down 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 79090, up 0.32% [2][10]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 10,226 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,348. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 251 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. India is delaying new trade concessions. The US is considering a 50% tariff on copper imports starting next week [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22655, up 0.04%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2805.5, down 0.83% [2][13]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 65,890 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,845. The LME Zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [14]. Lead - **Price and Trend**: Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16900, down 0.09%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2017.5, down 0.15% [2][17]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 24,548 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,012. The LME Lead inventory increased by 6,700 [17]. - **News**: Sino - US will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The US job vacancies in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [18]. Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,660, down 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 268,050, up 0.26% [2][21]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 26,514 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,387. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 160 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, Sino - US tariff - related issues and other macro - events are mentioned [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trend**: Aluminum and alumina will fluctuate within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20605, down 10. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3307, up 64 [2][26]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 68,337 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 12,465. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged at 51.40 million tons [26]. - **News**: Trump set a new deadline for Russia to reach a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the price of crude oil rose by more than 4% during the session. Trump and Bessent stated that the US will issue long - term bonds after the interest rate drops [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trend**: Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800, up 180. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,920, up 80 [2][30]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 177,969 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,420. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract decreased by 211,230 compared to the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [30][31].

特朗普在4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，美印两国在4月21日公布了双边贸易协议权限范围（Terms of Reference），特朗普政府一度表示印度可能是最早与美国达成贸易协议的国家之一。但经过5轮双方 会谈，双边贸易谈判至今仍陷于僵持之中。 据报道，印度在保护农业和乳业方面持强硬立场，双方在"去美元化"和购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在矛 盾。 新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普29日在搭乘总统专机"空军一号"从英国返程途 中对媒体记者表示，美国可能对印度输美产品征收20%至25%的关税，但尚未就此作出最终决定。 特朗普说，虽然印度是一个好朋友，但印度对从美国进口产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对美国 产品征收的关税。 美国贸易代表格里尔（ Jamieson Greer）28日表示，美国需要更多时间与印度谈判，以评估印度对美国 出口更多开放市场的意愿。 据报道，印度计划在8月中旬美国代表团访问期间重启范围更广的贸易谈判，目标是在今年9月或10月完 成一项综合性双边协议。 特朗普在25日对媒体表示，美国将向近200个贸易伙伴致信，从而确定美国对这些国家产品的关税税 率。他此前威胁从8月1日开 ...

Market Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%, with fiscal efforts and "rush exports" supporting the economic data, but policy urgency has decreased [2] - China's exports in June were strong, and a new round of "rush exports" supported demand under the easing of Sino-US tariffs; the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8%, mainly due to the suspension of subsidies in some regions, and subsequent policy subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption [2] - In terms of investment, infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly, and overall fixed investment weakened. There is still a risk of the weak real estate sales dragging down the entire real estate chain [2] - On July 29, the A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and the trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. Among commodity futures, the main glass contract fell more than 7%, coking coal fell more than 6%, and lithium carbonate fell more than 5% [2] Anti-Involution Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Policy expectations for "anti-involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles have increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3] - Multiple departments have notified the assessment of old equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industries, focusing on corresponding chemical products [3] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - Trump signed the "Great America" tax and spending bill, marking a shift in US policy from "tight fiscal expectations + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" [4] - The 2.0 stage of reciprocal tariffs has officially begun, with 4 batches of tariff letters sent to 25 countries so far. The UK is pushing for an agreement in the steel sector, and the US has reached agreements with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the EU to reduce reciprocal tariffs [4] - The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement. Japan has lowered its export assessment for the first time in a year, citing the impact of US trade policies [4] - The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, and overseas demand hit a three-year low. The US Treasury expects to borrow more than 1 trillion US dollars in the third quarter [4] Commodity Sector Focus - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [5] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short-term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [5] - Trump urged the UK to reduce taxes on the fossil fuel industry and increase North Sea oil production. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [5] - In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [5] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [6] Key News - The A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower. The trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.86% [7] - Most US chip stocks rose before the market, with NVIDIA rising more than 1%. The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement [7] - Japan lowered its monthly export assessment for the first time in a year, partly due to the weakening of export demand to avoid US tariffs. Japan also adjusted its description of the overall economic situation, saying that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace [7] - The US Treasury auctioned 69 billion US dollars of two-year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 3.920% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 [7] - The US Treasury expects to borrow 1.01 trillion US dollars from July to September, higher than the previous forecast of 554 billion US dollars, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling [7] - Trump expressed disappointment with Russia's attitude towards the Ukraine war. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 2%, and among rare earth concept stocks, NioCorp Developments Ltd. fell 5.1%, Ucore UCORE RARE METALS fell 1.5%, Energy Fuels rose 0.6%, and MP Materials rose 0.2% [7] - The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia officially took effect at 24:00 on July 28 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 40%, marking a new low during his second term, with concerns from the public regarding his handling of economic and immigration policies [1][6]. - The poll conducted over three days surveyed 1,023 adults across the U.S., with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, revealing a significant polarization in public opinion towards Trump [4]. - Compared to a previous poll conducted in mid-July, Trump's approval rating for economic management increased from 35% to 38%, while his immigration approval rose from 41% to 43% [5]. Group 2 - Trump's administration has adopted aggressive strategies in both economic and immigration policies, which have led to mixed evaluations from the public [5][6]. - The article highlights Trump's trade policy, including the implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff and the potential for higher tariffs on imports if negotiations fail, which introduces significant uncertainty into the U.S. economy [5]. - Since January, Trump's overall approval rating has declined by approximately 12 percentage points, from 56% to 44%, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with his second term [6].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index ended a six-day winning streak, while European stocks rose [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock dropped by 28% after the appointment of a new CEO and a downward revision of its annual guidance, with sales of the weight-loss drug Wegovy falling short of expectations [1] - Crude oil prices surged over 3%, with a peak increase of more than 4% during intraday trading [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade talks are ongoing in Stockholm, with both sides aiming to extend the paused 24% tariffs and corresponding countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that there is still much "bargaining" to be done with the EU, focusing on digital services tax and steel and aluminum tariffs [1] - The IMF has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast, along with improved economic outlooks for both the U.S. and China [1]

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the US and India are facing significant delays, with no agreement likely before the August 1 deadline [1][4] - The US Trade Representative emphasized the need for more discussions to assess India's willingness to lower trade barriers and open markets [1][3] - India's trade policy has historically focused on protecting domestic markets, which poses challenges for reaching a trade agreement [1][4] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Status - The US negotiating team is scheduled to visit India in August for further discussions on a proposed bilateral trade agreement [3] - The US has previously imposed high tariffs on Indian goods, with a 26% tariff announced by President Trump, which was initially suspended for 90 days [3] - Despite optimistic statements from Indian officials, insiders suggest that reaching an agreement before the deadline is highly unlikely [4] Group 2: Key Trade Issues - The US aims to secure greater market access for its agricultural products, dairy, and poultry in India, where tariffs on soybeans can reach 56% and poultry tariffs are nearly 100% [4][5] - India is resistant to increasing US agricultural imports due to concerns over the impact on its farmers, who constitute about 42% of the population [5] - India is seeking to eliminate a 26% additional tariff and reduce tariffs on steel (50%) and automobiles (25%) as part of the negotiations [5] Group 3: Competitive Tariff Levels - India is looking for competitive tariff levels that are lower than those of other Asian countries, potentially similar to the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan [5] - The US has recently reduced tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%, setting a precedent that India may seek to leverage in negotiations [5]

标普500终结六连涨；欧股上涨，诺和诺德财报后一度跌28%；原油大涨逾3%；双焦夜盘大涨。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方 反制措施如期展期90天。 美国法院周四开启口头辩论，"对等关税"面临"取消风险"。 美国商务部长：和欧盟还有很多"讨价还价"，数字服务税和钢铝将是谈判重点。 特朗普给俄罗斯达成俄乌协议设新的最后期限，从50天减至10天，警告对俄征关税，原油盘中涨 超4%。 美国7月消费者信心回升，6月份职位空缺数则扭转前两个月升势。 IMF小幅上调全球经济增长预期，上调中美经济展望。 国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，提到积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争。 欧股诺和诺德暴跌，任命新CEO并下调全年指引，减肥药Wegovy销售不及预期。 提醒：美联储北京时间周四凌晨将公布利率决定，预期为按兵不动，两位理事可能投下反对票。 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 市场等待美联储利率决议和美国大型科技公司密集财报，投资者对美股高估值的担忧盖过了贸易消息的利好，三大美股指收跌，标普终结六连涨，美债和美 元齐涨。UPS跌超10%，公司仍未发布年度预测。联合健康公布失望盈利预测，股价下跌7.5%、拖累道指。诺和诺德财报后暴跌超20%。 由于7年期美债标售强劲，周二美债收益率普跌，10年期收益率大跌近9基点。美元震荡收涨0.3%。比特币倒V反转，曾重回11.9万美元，此后下跌。 特朗普确定对俄罗斯最后通牒新期限，原油大涨超3%，美油一度重回70美元关口。内盘期货夜市几乎全线上涨，焦煤夜盘收涨将近7%，焦炭涨超5.9%。 亚洲时段，创业板突破2400点，医药股爆发，国债大跌，焦煤跌超6%，港股午后回升，泡泡玛特涨近6%。 要闻 中美将继续推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 美国法院周四开启口头辩论，"对等关税"面临"取消风险"。 美股芯片股盘前普涨，欧盟或在美欧贸易协议中采购400亿欧元AI芯片。美商务部长：和欧盟还有很多"讨价还价"，数字服务税和钢铝将是谈判 重点。 ...

【环球时报综合报道】在美国拟于8月1日起对韩国商品加征25%所谓"对等关税"前夕，韩国政府加紧推 进最后阶段谈判。多家韩媒29日报道，韩国经济副总理兼企划财政部长官具润哲当天启程赴美，计划于 当地时间7月31日在华盛顿与美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈，争取在最后时限前寻求关税减免方案。 韩国产业通商资源部长官金正官、通商交涉本部长吕翰九已于上周先后在华盛顿和纽约与美方官员举行 会谈，随后更是飞赴美国总统特朗普正在访问的苏格兰，与随行的美国贸易谈判核心人士继续磋商。美 国商务部长卢特尼克对此说道："想想他们有多么渴望达成协议。" 韩国政府之所以持续加快节奏，一方面是因谈判时间所剩不多，另一方面则是日本和欧盟已率先与美方 达成关税协议。两大竞争对手目前均获得了将"对等关税"和汽车关税降至15%的待遇。若韩美谈判未能 达成协议，从8月起，韩国产汽车将继续面临高达25%的美方进口关税，这将对韩国产品在美出口竞争 力造成直接冲击。 韩媒普遍认为，具润哲与贝森特的会谈将成为韩美关税磋商进程中的关键一环。（黎枳银） 具润哲在仁川机场接受韩媒采访时表示，将充分说明韩方正在准备的合作方案及国内产业情况，并就包 括造船业在内的韩美中 ...