来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：隔夜黄金小幅上涨，但走势较为疲弱，不排除市场已经消化完降息预期的可能。9月降息已成定局，但降幅可能不及市场预期。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，中性利率持续处于低位的时代并未结束。里士满联储主席巴尔金也表示，鉴于经济活动温和，支持小幅调整利率。 最新议息会议纪要显示，美联储官员认为，基准利率维持在4.25%至4.50%是适当的。高度一致的观点凸显了决策者们对利率水平的认同。 智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，9月降息50个基点概率不大，快速降息会增加市场对美国经济的忧虑，同时会提高市场对美联储独立性的质疑。 技术面：黄金日线收带长下影的小阳线，上涨动能一般。4小时周期价格临近前期高点，且有超买迹象，不排除短线回调的可能。日内可关注上方 3400美元一线的压力。 预计今年剩余时间全球原油需求增速将放缓至日均65万桶，低于一季度日均99万桶的增速。预计今年全球原油需求增长平均增速为日均74万桶。 但供应端还在持续增加，供需矛盾进一步激化，今年全球原油供应增长为日均160万桶，较上月预测上调了日均近40万桶。 技术面：原油日线连续收小阴小阳线，上攻明显乏力，冲击长期均线失败，中期反弹可能已结束。1小 ...

来源：百利好环球官方微博 黄金方面： 上周五（8月22日）晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表鸽派讲话，一度点燃了华尔街对未来降息的预期。9 月降息的概率上升至90%之上，鲍威尔表示鉴于当前的美国经济，美联储可能需要调整政策立场。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美国中性利率持续处于低位的时代并未结束，与美联储部分官员认为的（美国中性利率因通胀而 上升）观点相反。同时还表示，考虑到一些评估经济因素的不确定性，低利率将在某个时候回归。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，美联储主席鲍威尔发表鸽派讲话，使得未来降息的预期大幅增强，黄金受此支 撑进一步走高的概率大。 技术面：黄金上周五自3320美元一线快速上涨，多头强劲。今日早间短线下挫，但多头走势未改，进一步震荡走高的概率大。 短线下方关注3363美元的支撑，上方可以看向3392美元的位置。 原油方面： 沙特统计总局（GASTAT）的报告显示，第三季度原油出口同比下降了15.8%，出口总额从74.7%下跌至67.9%，但第二季度沙特 非原油出口增加了17.8%，抵消了原油销售的不足。 另外，乌克兰对俄罗斯的能源设施发动袭击，导致俄罗斯的炼油厂被迫中止 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the positive performance of the US economy in July, which exceeded expectations, leading to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the US [2] - Developed market indices saw an overall increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.7% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% [4][5] - The article highlights the significant rebound in glass prices, which increased by 13.9% [50] Group 2 - The article notes that the US core CPI for July was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, but the performance of goods related to tariffs was notably weak [70][74] - The article mentions that the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, driven by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [70] Group 3 - The article reports that the US Treasury auction demand remained robust, with strong absorption rates for short-term bonds, indicating stable interest from overseas and money market funds [68] - The article details the performance of various sectors within the S&P 500, with healthcare, consumer discretionary, and communication services rising by 4.6%, 2.5%, and 2.1% respectively [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the better-than-expected performance of the US economy in July, which, along with stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, led to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the US [2] - Developed market indices saw an overall increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.7% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% [4][5] - The article highlights the significant rebound in glass prices, which increased by 13.9% [50] Group 2 - The article notes that the US core CPI for July was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, but the performance of goods related to tariffs was notably weak [70][74] - The article mentions that the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, driven by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [70] Group 3 - The article reports that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.3%, while yields in other developed countries also saw increases [22] - Emerging market 10-year Treasury yields showed mixed results, with Turkey's yield rising by 205.5 basis points to 31.2% [27] Group 4 - The article indicates that the US dollar index fell by 0.4% to 97.85, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1891 against the dollar [33][43] - It also notes that commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 1.7% to $62.8 per barrel [48]

Group 1: Gold Market - The US July CPI year-on-year is recorded at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a moderate inflation performance that alleviates stagflation risks from Trump's tariff policies and strengthens dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve [2] - Federal Reserve officials are fostering dovish expectations, with former Fed official Bullard expressing support for low interest rates after discussions with Treasury Secretary Basant, who stated a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are stabilizing near the 62-day moving average, with a potential for further increases as the price has regained the 20-day moving average, forming a golden cross [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase of 3.036 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 8, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, which is bearish for oil prices [4] - The IEA's latest monthly report revised global oil demand growth for 2025 down from 704,000 barrels per day to 685,000 barrels per day, while supply growth was revised up from 2.1 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply situation [4] - Analysts suggest that the current risk of oversupply in the oil market is high, leading to a likely weak performance in oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market shows a small decline in the previous trading day, but the price has broken out of the previous trading range of $4.28 to $4.44, indicating a higher chance for further price increases [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing strong performance with signs of accelerated upward movement, although the significant price increase raises concerns about potential pullback risks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. While foreign capital continued to flow in, the yen depreciated significantly. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates is not uncommon in Japan, mainly due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. What's relatively abnormal is the weakness of the yen under a weak - dollar environment. Usually, the yen is stronger when the dollar is weak, but recently its trend has clearly diverged from that of the euro [2][16][56]. - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation have led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations, which is one of the reasons for the recent weakness of the yen. Currently, the rebound of Japan's core CPI is mainly driven by imported factors, with weak inflation stickiness and often falling short of expectations. Against this background, the market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.7 times on May 30th to 0.6 times on July 22nd, and the yen weakened accordingly. In addition, the previous unsuccessful US - Japan trade negotiations and the recent Senate election turmoil have further exacerbated the weakness of the yen [2][3][58]. - After the trade agreement was reached, market expectations of an interest - rate hike have heated up again. However, the lack of inflation stickiness may still be a constraint on the Bank of Japan's significant interest - rate hikes. On July 22nd, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement. After the agreement was reached, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October quickly rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The conclusion of the trade agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but attention should also be paid to the constraint of insufficient inflation stickiness on interest - rate hikes [4][45][58]. - Looking ahead, the exchange - rate trend may need to focus on the changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The suspense about Japan's new prime minister may continue until the September presidential election, and political risks may still persist during this period. Whether it is the in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or the possible victory of Takaichi Sanae, it may trigger market concerns about Japan's fiscal expansion, thereby causing a "bond - exchange double - kill" situation [4][50][58]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Exchange Rate Bi - weekly Report: The "Weak" Yen in the Political Vortex? 3.1.1 Anomaly in the Japanese Market Recently? The Divergence between the Trends of Japanese Stocks and the Yen, and the Persistent Weakness of the Yen under a Weak - Dollar Environment - The Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. From June, it soared 9.2%, and foreign capital accelerated its purchase of Japanese stocks, with a total inflow of $5.11 billion. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% during the same period. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates in Japan is due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. Japan's export - oriented economic structure makes the depreciation beneficial for exports and increases the exchange - gain of overseas revenues. Since 2013, in the yen depreciation cycle, sectors with a higher proportion of overseas revenues in Japanese stocks have seen greater increases [2][16][24]. - Under the background of the US dollar index falling 1.8% since June 2025, most currencies appreciated against the US dollar, such as the Mexican peso, Danish krone, Swiss franc, euro, and Australian dollar, which appreciated 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% against the US dollar, which is different from the historical situation where the yen was mostly stronger when the US dollar weakened [27]. 3.1.2 What Caused the Weakness of the Yen? The Cooling of Interest - Rate Hike Expectations due to Lower - than - Expected Inflation, and the Impact of Trade Negotiations and Political Turmoil - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations. Japan's core CPI rebound is mainly driven by imported factors, and the inflation surprise index has been declining since May 30th. The market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.66 times on May 30th to 0.59 times on July 22nd, causing the yen to weaken [32]. - The previous 8 rounds of US - Japan trade negotiations, with the first 7 being unsuccessful, made the market worry about the impact of high tariffs on the Japanese economy and exacerbated the weakening of the yen. On July 22nd, an agreement was reached: the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US [36][38]. - The "political vortex" of the Senate election on July 20th made the market worry about the further "loosening" of Japan's fiscal policy. The ruling coalition lost control of the Senate, and to stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, which led to the weakness of the yen and the increase in the term premium of Japanese bonds [39]. 3.1.3 New Focus after the Agreement? Inflation Remains a Constraint on the Bank of Japan's Interest - Rate Hikes, and Attention Should be Paid to the Possible "Bond - Exchange Double - Kill" Caused by Fiscal Expansion - After the US - Japan trade agreement was reached on July 22nd, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but the lack of inflation stickiness may still restrict significant interest - rate hikes [45]. - Looking forward, the exchange - rate trend should focus on the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The new prime - ministerial suspense may last until September, and political risks may continue. The in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or Takaichi Sanae's possible victory may trigger concerns about fiscal expansion and a "bond - exchange double - kill" [50]. - Externally, it should focus on the persistence of the US stagflation trade. Once the market restarts the slowdown trade, the yen is expected to strengthen again. Multiple signs indicate that US inflation may enter an upward phase, which may lead to a temporary rebound of the US dollar and a temporary decline of the yen. Subsequently, the weakening of US unemployment data may be the key for the slowdown trade and the strengthening of the yen [53]. 3.2 Large - scale Assets & Overseas Events & Data: The US - Japan Tariff Agreement was Reached, and Most Developed Markets Rose 3.2.1 Large - scale Assets: Developed Markets Continued to Rise, and Coking Coal Rose Significantly - Most developed - market stock indices rose, such as the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500, which rose 4.1%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively. Most emerging - market stock indices also rose. Most sectors of the US S&P 500 rose, and most sectors in the eurozone rose as well. The Hang Seng Index rose across the board, and most industries increased [59][64][66]. - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in developed countries showed a divergent trend. The yields of Japanese, German, and Italian 10 - year government bonds rose, while those of the UK, US, and French 10 - year government bonds fell. Most 10 - year government bond yields in emerging markets rose [68][72]. - The US dollar index fell 0.8% to 97.67, and most other currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The yuan appreciated against the US dollar. Commodity prices showed mixed trends. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. Non - precious metals rose, and precious metals fell [74][82][84]. 3.2.2 The US Reached Three Trade Agreements - Since July 22nd, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, lower than the previously threatened 25%. Japan promises to invest $550 billion in the US. The US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesia, lower than the previously threatened 25%. The US will lower the tariff on the Philippines from 20% to 19% [90]. 3.2.3 The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan Lost the Election, and the Possibility of Fiscal Expansion Increased - In the 27th Senate election on July 20, 2025, the ruling coalition lost control of the Senate. To stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, so the scale of Japan's fiscal stimulus may expand in the second half of the year. After the election results were announced, the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to around 1.60% [95]. 3.2.4 Federal Reserve: Pay Attention to the July FOMC Meeting Next Week - The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Attention should be paid to the July FOMC meeting next week. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, but also focuses on whether the Fed will send more signals about the September interest - rate cut [99]. 3.2.5 Trump Visited the Federal Reserve and Stated that He Would Not Remove Powell - On July 24, 2025, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve headquarters. He expressed his hope for an interest - rate cut but said he would not remove Powell because of the renovation project [103]. 3.2.6 PMI: The US Markit Manufacturing PMI Declined - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the market expectation of 52.7, indicating that tariffs still disturbed US industrial production. The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, in line with market expectations [105]. 3.2.7 ECB: The July Meeting Kept Interest Rates Unchanged, in Line with Market Expectations - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July, as the eurozone's inflation reached the target, domestic price pressure eased, and the economic performance met expectations. The ECB has no exchange - rate target but will consider the indirect impact of exchange - rate fluctuations on inflation and the economy [109]. 3.2.8 Unemployment Benefits: The Number of Continuing Unemployment Benefit Claims Basically Met Market Expectations - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the US was 217,000, lower than the market expectation of 226,000. As of the week ending July 12, the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims was 1.955 million, slightly lower than the market expectation [112]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomic Calendar: Pay Attention to the Federal Reserve Meeting - The report provides a global macroeconomic data calendar, including important events such as the ECB's interest - rate meeting, China's industrial enterprise profits, the US GDP, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [116].

Group 1 - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariffs, prompting multiple countries to engage in last-minute negotiations [1] - Nationwide anti-government protests have erupted in Ukraine, marking the first such occurrence since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - Current market signals indicate continued selling pressure on WTI crude oil, while gold remains favored by bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish sentiment of 45% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 81% and a bearish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 82% and bearish sentiment of 18% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 84% and bearish sentiment of 16% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 7% and bearish sentiment of 93% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 18% and bearish sentiment of 82% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 25% and bearish sentiment of 75% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 93% and bearish sentiment of 7% [3]

Group 1 - Powell faces criminal charges, while the White House states that Trump has no plans to dismiss Powell [1] - New round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for tomorrow, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Israel has launched large-scale airstrikes against Houthi forces, reflecting regional conflicts [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment shows a stalemate in gold trading, with signals indicating potential sell-off in WTI crude oil [1] - The sentiment in various indices shows a mixed outlook, with the S&P 500 at 71% bullish and 29% bearish, while the Nasdaq is evenly split at 50% [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro against the Dollar shows a significant bearish sentiment at 77% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU by President Trump has led to increased market pressure and heightened risk aversion, resulting in declines in U.S. stock futures and slight increases in gold, the dollar, and Bitcoin [1][11]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures opened lower, with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.4% [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 200.50 points, or 0.45%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also experienced declines of 0.47% and 0.46%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets reacted with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.3% and the South Korean KOSPI remaining flat [3]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices increased by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, although the increase has moderated [3]. - The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen saw slight increases against major currencies [6]. - Bitcoin experienced a temporary rise of about 1% before retreating from its recent highs [9]. Economic Context - Analysts warn that the 30% tariff is punitive and may have a more significant impact on the EU than on the U.S. itself [11]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including China's Q2 GDP and U.S. June CPI, are expected to be focal points for the market [12]. - The recent tariff announcement disrupts the previously optimistic sentiment surrounding trade negotiations [14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's resilience is being tested as Trump's trade threats complicate accurate pricing in financial markets [13]. - Some analysts believe that the market may overlook the trade conflict until tariffs are fully implemented, drawing lessons from past experiences [14]. - Discussions around potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership due to Trump's criticisms of Powell add further uncertainty to the market [15].

Group 1 - The tariff negotiations have reached a critical stage, with investors awaiting clarity on the tariff situation [1] - Market sentiment regarding gold remains cautious, with both bullish and bearish positions maintaining a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 73% and bearish sentiment of 27% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% and a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The Dow Jones Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 76% against a bullish sentiment of 24% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows an even split with 50% bullish and 50% bearish sentiment [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 52% and bearish sentiment of 48% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 82% and a bullish sentiment of 18% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bearish sentiment of 81% and a bullish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 92% against a bullish sentiment of 8% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 92% and a bearish sentiment of 8% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 85% and a bullish sentiment of 15% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 69% and a bullish sentiment of 31% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 58% and a bullish sentiment of 42% [3] - The USD/CAD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 70% and a bearish sentiment of 30% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a significant bearish sentiment of 93% against a bullish sentiment of 7% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and a bearish sentiment of 40% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 62% and a bearish sentiment of 38% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 70% and a bullish sentiment of 30% [4] - The NZD/USD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 56% and a bearish sentiment of 44% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 60% and a bullish sentiment of 40% [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a bullish sentiment of 62% and a bearish sentiment of 38% [4]