1月8日午后，金融市场持续下挫，亚太市场回调。贵金属、有色金属市场全线跳水，白银、镍、铜大跌。 截至收盘，日经225指数收跌1.63%。 A股、港股明显回调。截至发稿，A股创业板指跌超1%，港股恒生指数、恒生科技指数分别跌1.8%、1.97%。 国内期货市场方面，多晶硅主力合约跌停。沪镍主力合约跌超7%，工业硅跌超4%，沪铝、沪铜、沪锡等金属纷纷重挫。 | 取消排序 | 最新 ◆ | 涨幅 ◆ | 日增仓 ⇒▶ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多昌硅2605 | 53610 | -9.00% | -9371 | | ps2605 | | 跌停 | | | 沪镇2602 | 134900 | -7.20% | 2679 | | ni2602 | | | | | 工业硅2605 | 8520 | -4.70% | 29281 | | si2605 | | | | | 国际铜2602 | 89140 | -3.73% | 98 | | bc2602 | | | | | 沪铝2602 | 23570 | -3.52% | -26927 | | al2602 | | | | | 沪铜2602 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the global economic landscape was reshaped by Trump's tariffs, leading to significant changes in asset allocation strategies for 2026 [1] - The Asian markets outperformed the US and European markets, with South Korea's Kospi index surging 75.6% to 4214.17 points, driven by reforms under President Lee Jae-myung [4] - The total market capitalization of the South Korean main board grew by 77.1% to 347.8 trillion KRW (approximately 16.78 trillion RMB), marking a historic milestone [6] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index reached a record closing price of 50,339.48 points, with a yearly increase of over 26%, supported by strong performance in chip stocks and optimistic economic stimulus measures from the new Prime Minister [7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 27.77%, achieving its best annual performance since 2017, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 23.45%, marking its best performance since its launch in 2020 [9] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced a "super cycle" in 2025, with silver prices rising by 143.97% to over $84 per ounce, and gold prices increasing by 64.9% from $1,834 to $4,400 per ounce [10][11][13] - Copper prices also surged by 44.32% throughout the year, reflecting a historic simultaneous rise in gold, silver, and copper prices for the first time since 1980 [15][17] Group 4 - The US dollar index fell by nearly 10% in 2025, primarily due to strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [18][20] - The decline in the dollar's appeal was exacerbated by a decrease in geopolitical risks and a shift in global risk appetite, leading to a flow of funds into other currencies like the euro and yen [24][22] Group 5 - The oil market faced significant declines, with WTI crude oil futures dropping over 18% and Brent crude oil futures falling over 17% due to supply overhang and changes in OPEC+ strategies [28][29][32] - Forecasts for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 vary, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average of $56 per barrel, while the World Bank estimates $60 per barrel [33]

市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点， 才能更好把握2026年的"资本风口"。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 即将过去的2025年，像一部"反经典理论"合订本。 这一年，美元大跌、欧元走强，日元加息后"不升反贬"；4月关税冲击一度把美股砸出深坑，恐慌 指数（VIX）冲上60，随后在流动性缓冲与仓位再平衡中迅速修复，标普500年内涨幅超过17%； 贵金属在"软着陆叙事"未彻底瓦解时逼近历史高位，国际黄金价格年内上涨逾70%，冲上4500美 元/盎司，白银的涨幅更猛；油价却偏弱，像是在给需求与供给预期泼冷水。 由此，一种更"金融化"的秩序显形：黑天鹅仍会飞来，但落地时往往被切割成可交易的"白天鹅碎 片"——提前对冲、结构性吸收，甚至被"波动率卖方"纳入风险预算与保证金管理。 市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点，才能更好把握2026年的"资本风 口"。 联博基金市场策略负责人李长风认为，尽管2025年不确定性因素密集，全球资本市场仍在"攀登 忧虑之墙"的过程中展现韧性。 复盘2025年，一个显著特征是"预测与现实的系统性错位"。 财经数据服务平台金十数据显示，截至2025年12月 ...

黄金方面： 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，在更低利率，美元更弱的背景下，黄金价格长期支撑不变。但是在经历了两年牛市 之后，黄金价格大概率将介于盘整与延续之间。 技术面：日线上，近期行情震荡上行，短期维持比较强势。形态上看，行情破位上行，有望打开上行空间。4小时线上，行情回 调在20日均线获得支撑之后再度走高，表现较为强势。日内关注下方4487美元一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 原油市场今年以来受供给过剩的影响，油价表现较为弱势。展望后市，欧美扩大对俄罗斯石油企业的制裁，石油买家购买俄罗 斯石油出现一定的障碍，即使俄罗斯的石油没有出现大幅度下降，但仍将在一定程度上为油价提供支撑。 另外，今年产油国大幅增加产量，非欧佩克国家增产较为明显。不过在经历了阶段性的增产之后，当下原油市场的闲置产能主 要集中在沙特，沙特进一步增产的迫切性明显降温，明年第一季度欧佩克+暂停增产就是最好的证明。 从需求端看，全球贸易局势相对于今年来说更加清晰明朗，暗示原油的需求有望改善。全球三大月报也在最新的报告中上调原 油需求增速。 近期是欧美的圣诞假期，消息面较为清淡。 今年黄金走出牛市，并不是单一的因素所推动，而是更多的利好共同作用 ...

核心市场走势如下： 日经225指数收涨0.13%，报50407.79点，日本东证指数收涨0.3%。 圣诞假期来临，美股债休市一日。洲际交易所旗下布伦特原油期货合约全天交易暂停。芝商所旗下贵金属、美油、外汇、股指期货合约交易全天 暂停。欧洲多数主要股市因圣诞假期休市，包括德国、法国、英国、意大利、西班牙等。此外，澳大利亚、韩国市场今日休市。隔夜，，成功开 启了历史上胜率极高的"圣诞行情"，标普新高。 12月25日，亚股指涨跌互现，日债收益率上行。人民币、日元走强，离岸人民币破7。贵金属市场在创新高后出现调整，黄金失守4500美元/盎 司，铂钯金属大幅回调，白银维持强势，于每盎司71美元上方震荡，布伦特原油小幅下跌，加密货币上涨。 日本2年期国债收益率上行至1.119%，日本5年期国债收益率上行1BP至1.5%。 离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月底以来首次；日元反弹至155.8附近 现货黄金跌超0.1%回落至4479美元/盎司；现货白银维持在71.80美元/盎司；布伦特原油下跌0.05%至61.84美元/桶 比特币涨0.18%至87779.81，以太坊跌0.26%至2937.87。 离岸人民币汇率 ...

周五A股市场出现了普涨反弹的态势。其中，上证综指在盘中一度有两波清晰的主动拉升动作，只是跟 风买盘不足，在午市后有所受阻回落。不过，商业航天板块等科技新方向资产仍然强劲有力，显示出短 线动量资金积极主动做多的能量尚充沛。 与此同时，越来越多的信息显示出经济体之间的竞争主要体现在科技前沿的竞争。据新华社报道，美国 总统特朗普18日签署行政令，要求采取加大研发和吸引私营部门投资等举措，确保美国的"太空优势"。 在此背景下，无论是实体经济层面还是资本市场层面，参与者均认为科技产业必须奋力前行。这可能也 是商业航天板块、智能驾驶板块在近期持续活跃的驱动力，这就给A股带来了新的交易活力。 综上所述，当前A股既有全球流动性格局变动中受益的预期，也有科技活力的预期。所以，A股的中短 线走势仍可期待。在操作方向上，生物医药、智能驾驶、商业航天以及港股恒生科技成份股、资源等品 种仍可积极跟踪。 （执业证书：A1210623100001） A股或迎新买盘 这对于以A股市场、港股为代表的人民币资产来说，可能会迎来新的投资机遇。一方面是因为美联储的 扩表预期增强，意味着美元的弱势格局或将延续，这必然会提振人民币汇率的坚挺力度。而且， ...

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，量化宽松，在提供充足流动性的情况下，也会带动货币购买力的贬值，甚至可能导 致美国通胀高企，黄金等贵金属将会受益。 黄金方面： 上周临近收盘黄金出现快速跳水，短线跳水近100美元，对短线走势结构形成很大冲击，但这可能只是短线获利盘平仓带动短期 抛盘增加，长期来看黄金依旧值得期待。 上周美联储的降息被视为是鹰派降息，但降息结果落地后，标普500指数和道琼斯指数双双创下历史新高，市场认为美联储并没 有那么鹰派，美联储的货币政策还会继续放松。 特别是美联储宣布每月购买400亿美元短期国债的储备管理计划，被市场解读为，美联储即将开启新的量化宽松，美联储明年可 能将购买约5000亿美元的短期国债，可视为激进的流动性投放信号。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，日线上升结构扩大化，形成上升中继形态，长期看涨。1小时周期价格基本收复上周的大阴线，多 头动能增强，短线可关注下方4325美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 上周原油继续维持下跌走势，但短线有下跌放缓的迹象，不排除短线会有反弹的可能，中长线受制于供过于求的基本面，多方 很难占据绝对的主动权。 若俄乌冲突解决，俄罗斯原油在短期内可能会快速重返市 ...

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is currently held just under $92,000, with traders considering various economic factors including labor data and central bank expectations [1] - The crypto market shows strong resilience, supported by renewed whale accumulation, with ETH whales adding over 450,000 ETH since mid-November [1] - A significant rate cut probability of 93% this month is contributing to buying pressure, with a potential move above $96,000 possibly accelerating Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 [1] Asian Markets - Japan's Nikkei 225 fell approximately 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia Pacific index outside Japan slipped about 0.1% but is on track for a modest weekly gain of around 0.5% [3][4] - Household spending in Japan decreased at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October due to inflationary pressures [4] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, indicating solid demand in recent auctions as investors capitalize on lower bond prices [4] Chinese Markets - Chinese markets displayed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.02% and the SZSE Component up about 0.17% [5] - The China A50 index decreased by 0.17%, while DJ Shanghai saw a slight increase of 0.12%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by approximately 0.40% [5] European and US Markets - European futures indicated a slightly firmer tone, with DAX futures up about 0.79%, FTSE 100 futures gaining 0.19%, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures adding roughly 0.41% [6] - US stock futures were mixed, with Dow futures down 0.07% and S&P 500 futures up 0.11% [6] - Recent US labor data showed initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in over three years, although the Thanksgiving holiday may have influenced the figures [7] Cryptocurrency Prices - Current prices include Bitcoin at $92,387 (down 1.2%), Ether at $3,174 (down 1.1%), and XRP at $2.09 (down 4.6%) [8] - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.22 trillion, reflecting a decrease of 1.3% [8]

黄金方面：近期美联储降息的预期有所升温，美元维持偏弱运行。一方面是美国总统极有可能在近期宣布新一任美联储主席， 甚至暗示哈赛特就是主席人选；另一方面，日本央行极有可能在12月加息，美元弱势将限制金价跌幅。 本文出自百利好 转载请注明 原油方面：原油价格近期恐将延续震荡调整。从地缘政治方面看，俄乌谈判出现反复，甚至仍然有陷入僵局的风险；同时委内 瑞拉极有可能爆发实质性冲突，这将对油价形成支撑。 不过原油供给过剩的风险依旧存在，当前原油库存水平有所升高，即使欧佩克明年第一季度暂停减产，但其产量仍然维持在较 高水平；美国的产量也在历史新高附近；从需求端看，美国近期公布的经济数据偏弱势，恐将对需求不利，供给过剩的担忧依 旧限制油价上行空间。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情收较长下影线K线，显示下方有一定的支撑。指标上看，行情站上20日均线，后续存在进一 步走高的机会。日内关注上方61美元一线压力，下方关注58.50美元一线支撑。 铜方面：日线上，近期铜价较为强势，整体维持偏强运行。指标上看，20日均线和62日均线形成金叉，后续行情延续强势将是 大概率事件。日内关注行情回调测试下方5.23美元一线支撑情况。 日经22 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are stabilizing following a rebound in U.S. stocks, with cautious sentiment prevailing ahead of key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1] Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures rose nearly 0.2%, with the S&P 500 futures at 6853.00, up 12.75 points [1] - European and Asian stock indices showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4% and the Nikkei 225 closing up 1.1% [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.08%, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.885%, the highest since June 2008 [4] Economic Data and Expectations - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases include the November ADP private sector employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which are expected to influence market sentiment [1] - Analysts express concern that any unexpected positive data could lead to a short-term market pullback, given the current dovish market expectations [1] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.4% to $58.9 per barrel, while silver prices fell slightly after reaching a historical high [4] - The cryptocurrency market remains active, with Bitcoin rising 2.5% to $93,892.01 and Ethereum up 2.8% to $3,081.45 [4][8] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell over 0.2% to 99.1, while the Indian rupee dropped to a historic low against the dollar, reflecting ongoing pressures from trade negotiations and capital outflows [4][10]