数量工具先行，静待利率工具 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 去年末，在降息预期较强的情况下，国债收益率"无视"央行多次提醒大幅回落， 10 年国债一度跌破 1.6% 。 年初以来，为避免债券收益率过低对货币工具的制约，央行通过暂停国债购入、回笼流动性等操作，有意引导国内资金面处于紧平衡，推动国债收益率回 升。 2 月以来债券市场持续调整， 国债收益率曲线转向熊平，DR007利率大幅高于OMO利率， 1 年期及以内国债收益率重回 1.5% 左右， 10 年国债收益 率相比于此前低点回调超过 20BP ， 市场降息降准预期落空。 但事情正在发生变化。 3 月 21 日，央行公布《货币政策委员会一季度例会通稿》， 这是近年来时间最早的一季度例会 。其中对国债的表述从四季度的"充实完善货币政策工 具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"变为"从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化"，表明债券收益率过低对货币 工具的制约有所减弱，政策更加重视防范金融市场风险，避免债市大涨大跌，维护金融市场稳定。 3 月 24 日，央行预告在 25 日采用"固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标"方式投放 4500 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market experienced upward pressure on long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 3 basis points and the 30-year bond by 4 basis points, while the 1-year bond increased by 16 basis points, leading to an inversion in the yield curve between 3-year and 1-year bonds [2][9][12] - The January credit data showed a significant increase in new loans, with a total of 5.2 trillion yuan, which is 379.3 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating a recovery in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors [5][37] - The report suggests that the current tightening of liquidity in the market is leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve, but there remains value in long-term bonds after overcoming the pressure from liquidity [5][47] Group 2 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with indications of increased easing measures to support economic growth, particularly in light of weak demand [5][45][47] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market was robust, with government bonds totaling 3.536 billion yuan and local government bonds at 1.615 billion yuan, reflecting a strong supply side in the bond market [17][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-frequency data related to credit, consumption, and real estate to gauge the effectiveness of policy measures and the overall economic recovery [47][47]

今天最主要的内容，就是关于会议解读的那一块我为了不耽误事，单独发了一篇，劳驾诸位点一下文章最上面的"猫笔刀"，可以进入到我的主页观看《暴 涨了，真暴涨了》。 …… 1、10年国债收益率创下新低，上周不是破2了嘛，今天低至1.941%，由于目前市场普遍预期明年会有更宽松的货币政策，因此降息的预期也上来了，我 前几天和一个债券分析师小伙伴聊，都觉得明年下调40-50bp是有可能的，所以债券利率走低也是情理之中。中国资本市场这四五年，综合回报率最高的 就是债券，综合下来年化4.5%左右。 很多读者搞不清楚利率和债券的关系，简单解释就是反比关系，利率下降，债券就会上涨。所以货币宽松的周期，也是债券的慢牛市。 2、11月cpi指数+0.2%，ppi指数下降2.5%，一个是消费指数，一个是出厂价格指数，都不太好，但也都在预期之内。11月份食品价格普跌，鲜菜-13.2%、 猪肉-3.4%、鲜果-3%、水产品-1.3%。 3、中国保险行业协会发布了一个统计人力资源报告，里面显示保险从业人员的教育程度提升了，本科以上学历占了72%，并且主动离职率显著降低。保 险行业一直是巨大的就业海绵，从业人员学历提升其实从侧面能反应出竞争激 ...