Core Points - The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is directing federal agencies to prepare large-scale layoff plans in anticipation of a potential government shutdown, specifically targeting employees involved in "non-mandatory programs" [1][2] - The OMB memo indicates that if the government shuts down, there will be a permanent reduction in federal employees, contrasting with past practices where most employees faced temporary furloughs [1][2] - The memo outlines that projects without statutory funding will be the primary targets of the government shutdown's impact, and agencies are required to submit proposed layoff plans [2] Summary by Sections OMB Directives - OMB has instructed agencies to identify discretionary projects and activities that will lose funding after October 1, and to draft layoff plans for employees involved in these areas [1][2] - The memo emphasizes that even employees who could be exempt from furloughs during funding lapses must receive layoff notifications [2] Current Legislative Context - The memo was released amid a funding impasse between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, with the House passing a temporary funding bill to keep federal operations running until November 21, but Senate Democrats refusing to advance it [2] - OMB noted that if Congress passes a "clean" temporary funding bill by September 30, the additional measures outlined in the memo would not need to be implemented [2] Political Reactions - Some Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have expressed concerns that the memo serves as a tactic to intimidate, suggesting that the administration's actions could undermine essential government services [3][4] - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries views the threat of layoffs as a serious issue, particularly for federal employees in Virginia, urging voters to remember this during the upcoming elections [4]

Group 1 - US stock market indices reached record highs for three consecutive days, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all showing gains following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the UK and US are heading towards a "very, very dark period," citing financial and debt issues in the UK and political polarization in the US [2] - Huiyuan Juice's restructuring has stalled due to conflicts between new and old shareholders, leading to product delisting and potential impacts on creditors and operations [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts a continued decline in the US dollar and expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by nearly 100 basis points, suggesting a 3 trillion yuan investment in purchasing housing in first- and second-tier cities [3] - TSMC's ADR surged significantly, with other semiconductor stocks also rising as TSMC plans to increase prices for its 3nm and 2nm process nodes, prompting a price hike among memory chip manufacturers [3] - Argentina's assets surged following a US commitment to provide financial support to President Milei, with bonds experiencing their largest historical gains and the stock market rising by 8% [3] Group 3 - NVIDIA announced a partnership with OpenAI, planning to invest up to $100 billion to develop AI data centers, marking its largest investment commitment to date [4] - Multiple A-share companies reported positive third-quarter performance, with companies like Changchuan Technology and Brother Technology seeing growth due to increased production capacity and strong orders [5] - The Swedish central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.75% to support economic recovery, despite high inflation levels [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Congress is facing a government shutdown threat as the Senate did not vote on a temporary budget passed by the House, with the fiscal year ending on September 30 [1][4] - The House, controlled by Republicans, passed a short-term funding bill to maintain current funding levels until November 21, including an additional $8.8 million for security for government officials [4] - Senate Democrats are resistant to the House's funding bill, citing the lack of provisions for critical healthcare needs and seeking to include restrictions on the Trump administration's fiscal powers [4][5] Group 2 - Both parties are reluctant to take responsibility for a government shutdown, with Republicans aiming to blame Democrats while Democrats accuse Republicans of excluding them from the legislative process [5] - Analysts suggest that a "tweaked" short-term funding bill is likely to pass at the last moment to avoid a complete government shutdown, but if both parties maintain their positions, market volatility may increase [5][6] Group 3 - Historical government shutdowns have caused significant economic losses, with the 2018-2019 shutdown resulting in an estimated $11 billion loss, including $3 billion considered permanent [7] - A potential shutdown could lower GDP growth, with estimates suggesting a weekly shutdown could reduce growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points [8]

美国政坛的"黑天鹅"正在临近。 随着美国共和党提出的临时拨款法案在美国参议院未获通过，美国政府"关门"的可能性大幅攀升。美东 时间9月19日，美国总统特朗普警告称，美国政府很可能会在10月进入"关门"状态，因两党谈判陷入僵 局。 但在共和党控制的参议院，投票结果为44票赞成、48票反对，未达到通过所需的60票门槛。值得注意的 是，共和党参议员兰德·保罗和丽莎·穆尔科斯基投了反对票，而民主党参议员约翰·费特曼则投下赞成 票。当天有多名共和党议员缺席。 现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月底。这意味着，在不到两周时间内，国会必须至少通过一项保证 短期支出的议案，否则部分政府机构就会在10月1日这个新财年的首日停摆。 周五美股盘后，特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示："我们会继续与民主党谈判，但我认为美国很可能会 在一段时间内进入'关门'状态。" 在特朗普首个任期内，曾因边境墙资金问题引发长达一个月的政府停摆，创下美国历史最长纪录。 一旦政府停摆，数十万联邦雇员将被迫休假，许多政府业务受限。但关键服务仍会继续运行，美国人仍 会收到社保金和邮件。 当前这场年度资金争论仅涉及7万亿美元联邦政府预算中的约四分之一，该预算还包括社 ...

每经编辑｜段炼 美国国会参议院19日否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，推高部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停摆"的风险。 多名共和党参议员"反水"、缺席 特朗普：政府很可能会"关门" 此前，美国众议院通过了为期七周的临时拨款法案，为政府提供资金直至11月21日，避免即将到来的政府停摆。 但在共和党控制的参议院，投票结果却为44票赞成、48票反对，未达到通过法案所需的60票门槛。来自肯塔基州的兰德·保罗和来自阿拉斯加州的丽莎·穆 尔科斯基是唯二投反对票的共和党议员，而民主党参议员约翰·费特曼投了赞成票。数名共和党议员缺席。共和党主导的众议院当天早些时候以微弱优势 通过了该法案，如今党内领导人必须重新制定方案。 民主党人批评共和党提出的临时拨款法案忽视医保优先事项，共和党人则辩称该法案可为进一步谈判争取时间。美国联邦政府资金将在9月30日午夜耗 尽，若两党届时不能协商一致，部分政府机构将面临"停摆"。 美国联邦政府运转资金本应来自年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在10月1日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款法案。但由于近年来两党争斗激烈，往往无法 及时达成一致，国会便试图通过临时拨款法案以暂时维持联邦政府运转。 特朗普在白宫 ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has historically performed better during government shutdowns, indicating resilience in the face of political uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 has shown a tendency to increase in value during periods of government shutdowns, contrary to expectations of negative performance [1] - Historical data suggests that the index has often rebounded quickly after shutdowns, reflecting investor confidence [1] - The performance of the S&P 500 during shutdowns may be influenced by underlying economic conditions rather than political events alone [1]

一颗"市场大雷"即将引爆 共和党强推法案 民主党抨击"向富豪让权" 根据众议院共和党8日公布的提案，法案拟将联邦政府支出冻结在2024财年水平直至9月30日，但实际削减130亿美元非国防支出，涵盖医疗补助、食品 券和退伍军人福利，同时增加60亿美元国防开支以支持军队加薪。此外，法案收回拜登《通胀削减法案》中划拨给国税局的202亿美元资金，并授权特朗 普政府继续推进马斯克主导的联邦机构精简计划（DOGE），裁撤冗余部门。 民主党领导层迅速反击。众议院少数党领袖杰弗里斯、党鞭克拉克等人发布联合声明，谴责共和党"将财政权力让渡给未经选举的亿万富翁马斯克"，并称 法案"以牺牲中产阶级和退伍军人权益为代价，保护富豪利益"。民主党要求重启全年拨款谈判，并提出一项短期临时法案以争取时间。 两党更深层的冲突在于政策捆绑与监督权让渡。共和党将边境墙建设资金、马斯克的机构精简计划与拨款法案绑定，引发民主党对"财权私有化"的担忧。 马斯克主导的DOGE部门已裁减1050亿美元联邦开支，但其决策绕过国会监督，被民主党视为"富豪攫取公共财政权力"。 来源｜极速财讯 距离美国联邦政府资金耗尽仅剩一周，国会两党围绕临时拨款法案的博弈进入白 ...