Stock Futures Slump and Oil Prices Rally on Iran ConflictLIVE[Dow Futures Dive as Iran Conflict Rages]Last Updated:---Updated 28 min ago# Stock Futures Slump and Oil Prices Rally on Iran ConflictBy[George Glover]Stocks futures tumbled and oil prices surged early Monday as the conflict in the Middle East [shook up global markets].Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 564 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 futures also dropped 1.1%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.5%.Oil was r ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, which has experienced a decline in investor sentiment amid global volatility. The Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) has dropped significantly, indicating a cooling market environment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: The weighted MSASI decreased by 13 percentage points to 57% as of February 4, 2026, while the 1-month moving average (MMA) improved by 3 percentage points to 69% [2]. - **Market Activity**: Average daily turnover (ADT) for ChiNext, A-shares, and margin transactions outstanding decreased by 7% (to RMB 715 billion), 8% (to RMB 2,736 billion), and 1% (to RMB 2,687 billion), respectively. However, equity futures turnover increased by 14% to RMB 665 billion [2]. - **Policy Signals**: Recent policy signals indicate a balance between growth and quality, with provincial governments adjusting their 2026 growth targets to around 5%, down from approximately 5.4% the previous year. This suggests a focus on quality over sheer growth [4]. - **Market Interventions**: The effectiveness of interventions through margin tightening and National Team selling has been noted, contributing to a more stable liquidity outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong [5][17]. - **Large vs. Small Caps**: There is an expectation for large-cap stocks to outperform small-cap stocks in the A-share market, as their relative performance has reached a five-year low [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: Rising geopolitical uncertainties in other regions may enhance the appeal of Chinese assets, particularly in Hong Kong, which is seen as a beneficiary due to reasonable valuations and an active IPO pipeline [16]. - **CNY Appreciation**: Forecasts for further appreciation of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) are expected to provide additional support for the market [16]. - **Market Volatility**: Hong Kong's performance may lag behind A-shares if global market volatility continues to rise [16]. - **Earnings Estimates**: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to previous periods [2]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently facing challenges due to declining investor sentiment and global volatility. However, there are signs of potential recovery supported by policy adjustments, large-cap stock performance, and favorable currency movements. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on quality growth and strategic market interventions.

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing a decline as the relief rally fades and concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) resurface, with futures for major indices showing a downward trend [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to drop, with futures down 35 points, or 0.1% [1]. - S&P 500 futures have decreased by 0.2%, while contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 are down 0.5% [1]. - The Dow had previously reached a record high of 50,000 for the first time ever, indicating a significant rebound in the market [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market surge was initially driven by dip-buying in technology stocks, which escalated following a positive consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan that exceeded expectations [1]. - This positive sentiment suggests that the economy remains robust, contributing to the earlier market gains [1]. Group 3: International Market Movements - Japan's flagship index has surged to a new high following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in parliamentary elections, indicating strong domestic market performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market experienced a significant decline following the government's proposal to increase transaction taxes on stock derivatives, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors and profit-taking activities in the region [1][5]. Group 1: Indian Market Reaction - The NSE Nifty 50 index fell approximately 2%, marking the largest drop on a budget day since 2020, while the Bombay Stock Exchange saw a nearly 8% decline [1]. - The Indian government proposed to raise the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on stock futures from 0.02% to 0.05% and on options to 0.15%, aiming to curb speculative trading among retail investors [1]. - This move indicates India's commitment to regulating the surge in retail trading activity, as the country has become a leading market for such products globally [1]. Group 2: Impact on Trading and Investment - A. Balasubramanian from Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management noted that the increased STT could shift market focus towards spot trading and long-term investments, although it may negatively impact high-frequency trading (HFT) firms [2]. - Analysts suggest that the higher tax burden could reduce the after-tax returns for foreign traders, making India less competitive for short-term and derivative-focused foreign investments [2]. - The budget proposal is expected to generate approximately ₹150 billion (around $1.6 billion) in annual revenue for the government, but it is viewed as a negative sentiment for the already struggling Indian stock market [3]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - Global funds withdrew over $3 billion from Indian equities in January, continuing a trend of record foreign capital outflows due to mixed corporate earnings, high valuations, and insufficient exposure to AI-related stocks [3]. - The Saudi stock market also faced a decline, with the Tadawul index dropping 2.6%, attributed to geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, particularly in mining stocks linked to falling gold prices [5].

Market Overview - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures are at 26,341, below the last close of 26,487.51, indicating a decline in market sentiment [1] - Asia-Pacific markets fell, reflecting losses on Wall Street due to escalating tensions from President Trump's tariff threats [1] U.S. Tariff Threats - President Trump announced that exports from eight European countries would face a 10% tariff starting February 1, increasing to 25% by June 1 if negotiations fail regarding Greenland [2] - Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, criticizing President Macron's refusal to join his proposed "Board of Peace" [3] International Reactions - European leaders have deemed Trump's tariff threats "unacceptable" and are considering retaliatory measures, with France advocating for the EU to use the Anti-Coercion Instrument [4] - U.S. stock futures saw a slight rise after a significant drop in major averages, which experienced their worst day in three months [4] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 870.74 points, or 1.76%, closing at 48,488.59, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw declines of 2.06% and 2.39%, respectively [5] - This marked the worst session for all three major U.S. indices since October, with U.S. Treasury yields spiking and the dollar declining as investors moved away from U.S. assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Stock futures experienced a significant decline as investors expressed concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Investors shifted their focus towards precious metals as a safe haven amid the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Insights - Bitget's CEO Gracy Chen outlines the company's strategic direction for 2026, emphasizing the UEX concept that originated from a team brainstorming session and is now being implemented [1] - Bitget has achieved significant milestones, becoming the first crypto exchange to surpass $10 billion in stock futures trading volume and also exceeding $10 billion in cumulative trading volume during the TradFi testing phase [1] - The long-term goal for Bitget is to become a publicly listed company with a market capitalization of $100 billion [1] Strategic Directions - The company will focus on three main strategic areas: UEX, AI, and compliance, to expand its global asset coverage, enhance trading experiences, and strengthen regulatory frameworks [1] - 2026 marks the first full year of Gracy Chen as CEO, with the crypto industry entering a "golden age" that diverges from traditional structures, presenting opportunities for those willing to embrace uncertainty [1] - The opportunities in the current landscape are seen as rooted in code, consensus, and traffic, contrasting with previous generations' focus on land, licenses, and resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global markets showed mixed performance, influenced by renewed optimism regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Performance - U.S. futures for the S&P 500 increased by 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained nearly unchanged [1] - Germany's DAX index rose by 0.5% to 23,201.85 [1] - The CAC 40 in France experienced a slight decline of less than 0.1%, settling at 7,978.77 [1] - The FTSE 100 in Britain saw a marginal increase of 0.1%, reaching 9,547.77 [1] - The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong surged by 2% to 25,716.50 [1] - Japanese markets were closed due to a holiday [1]

Core Insights - Bitget, the world's largest universal exchange (UEX), has achieved a significant milestone with its stock futures product line, surpassing a cumulative trading volume of $5 billion, just a week after crossing the $3 billion mark, indicating a rapid increase in demand for tokenized stock futures [2] - The surge in trading activity aligns with the strong performance of the U.S. stock market, driven by AI-led growth, record Q3 earnings, and renewed investor interest in tech giants [2] - The top traded stock futures on Bitget include MicroStrategy (MSTR) at $1.4 billion, Tesla (TSLA) at $1 billion, and Apple (AAPL) at $472 million, reflecting strong market demand for both cryptocurrencies and established tech companies [2] Product Offering and Promotions - Bitget has launched over 30 USDT-margined perpetual futures contracts linked to top U.S. stocks, offering up to 25x leverage and a competitive trading fee of 0.0065% [3] - To enhance the adoption of tokenized stocks, Bitget is offering a limited-time promotion that reduces trading fees by 90% on all stock futures until January 31, providing users with a cost-effective way to trade quality stocks [3] - The rapid growth of Bitget's stock futures business supports its vision of enabling seamless transitions between crypto-native products and traditional financial markets on a single platform [3] Company Background - Established in 2018, Bitget serves over 120 million users, providing access to millions of crypto tokens, tokenized stocks, ETFs, and other real-world assets [4] - The ecosystem aims to facilitate smarter trading through AI-driven tools and cross-chain interoperability across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain, while also expanding access to real-world assets [4] - Bitget Wallet is designed to simplify and secure cryptocurrency transactions, integrating blockchain with everyday financial activities, currently serving over 80 million users [4] Strategic Partnerships - Bitget is promoting cryptocurrency adoption through strategic partnerships, including being the official cryptocurrency partner of La Liga in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [5] - The company has partnered with UNICEF to provide blockchain education support to 1.1 million people by 2027 as part of its global influence strategy [5] - In the motorsport sector, Bitget is the exclusive cryptocurrency exchange partner of MotoGP™, one of the most exciting racing events globally [5]

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, a 37% increase from HKD 35.2 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading amount in October 2025 was HKD 274.9 billion, up 8% from HKD 255 billion in October 2024 [1] - The average daily trading amount for the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 258.2 billion, a significant increase of 102% compared to HKD 127.8 billion in the same period last year [1] Derivative Products Market - The average daily trading volume of futures and options for the first ten months of 2025 was 1,696,752 contracts, a 7% increase from 1,582,570 contracts in the same period last year [2] - The average daily trading volume of stock index futures was 568,701 contracts during the first ten months of 2025 [2] Stock Options and Futures - The average daily trading volume of stock index options was 115,461 contracts for the first ten months of 2025 [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock options increased by 22% to 896,891 contracts compared to 733,117 contracts in the same period last year [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock futures was 8,538 contracts for the first ten months of 2025 [4] Currency Futures - The average daily trading volume of Renminbi currency futures increased by 20% to 107,126 contracts compared to 89,600 contracts in the same period last year [4] Historical Records - On October 2, 2025, the weekly stock options trading volume reached a historical high of 312,545 contracts [4] - On October 27, 2025, the trading volume of Hang Seng Tech Index futures options hit a historical high of 64,982 contracts [5] IPO and Fundraising - There were 81 new listings in the first ten months of 2025, a 50% increase from 54 new listings in the same period last year [1] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 216 billion, a 209% increase from HKD 70 billion in the same period last year [1] - The total fundraising amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached HKD 507 billion, up 228% from HKD 154.8 billion in the same period last year [1]