英国央行副行长拉姆斯登：鉴于市场波动性，四月份调整量化紧缩操作的顺序是合理的。 ...

SHMET 网讯：英国央行将于北京时间周四19:02公布决议，较往常推迟两分钟，以纪念欧洲胜利日80周年。该央行预计将降息25个基点，并可能暗示6 月将进一步降息。这或将使其自2009年以来首次连续降息，而美国贸易冲突正令经济增长前景蒙上阴影。 彭博调查的32位经济学家均预计，货币政策委员会将把基准利率从4.5%降至4.25%，其中20人认为至少有一位委员会支持降息50个基点。期货市场也几 乎完全定价了本次25个基点的降息，并认为下月再次降息的概率较高。 自去年8月以来，英国央行已三次降息，并于今年2月暂停行动。但由于此后美国总统特朗普宣布的高额对等关税可能拖累全球经济，交易员预计英国央 行年底前会将利率降至3.5%。 投票分歧 本次降息决议预计将获得全票通过，仅三位受访经济学家认为会有委员支持按兵不动。这显示央行内部鸽派倾向已逐渐形成，部分委员主张更激进宽松 以规避增长风险。 其中最鸽派的委员丁格拉（Swati Dhingra）和泰勒（Alan Taylor）持此立场。而曼恩（Catherine Mann）则在2月意外支持降息50个基点，3月又转向多 数派暂缓行动。 另一位关键人物是负责市场的副行长拉姆斯登 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.21 trillion, with public holdings at $28.91 trillion and intergovernmental holdings at $7.30 trillion, indicating a significant increase in debt levels and raising concerns about sustainability as the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds the IMF's recommended threshold [1][6]. Group 1: Debt Growth and Historical Context - Historical data shows that U.S. federal debt has increased significantly over time, with notable spikes during major events such as the Civil War, World Wars, and recent crises like the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. - From FY 2019 to FY 2021, federal spending rose by approximately 50%, contributing to the current debt levels [2]. Group 2: Current Debt Statistics - The average daily increase in federal debt over the past year is $4.42 billion, translating to $18,404 million per hour and $51,121 per second [4]. - The per capita federal debt has risen by $4,814, with the total per household reaching $273,919 [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Refinancing Challenges - By September 2025, the federal debt is projected to reach $37 trillion, with approximately $7 trillion of debt maturing, presenting unprecedented refinancing challenges for the U.S. Treasury [7]. - The Treasury plans to issue $4.9 trillion in long-term bonds and $2.1 trillion in short-term bonds to manage this refinancing [7]. Group 4: Debt Composition and Interest Payments - As of March 2025, 21.29% of the public debt is short-term, while 51.22% is medium to long-term, and 16.99% is ultra-long-term [9]. - Interest payments on the debt are projected to be $582 billion, accounting for 16% of total federal spending in FY 2025, influenced by rising interest rates and inflation [10]. Group 5: Global Context and Economic Implications - The IMF highlights that rising debt levels globally, coupled with significant policy changes, are increasing financial market volatility and complicating fiscal situations for many countries [11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Bank of England monetary policy meeting is expected to address the future of the bond sale plan, with market speculation suggesting a potential halt to the program later this year due to recent financial market volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from Bank of America and BNP Paribas are optimistic about long-term UK government bonds, predicting that the Bank of England may stop bond sales starting in October [1]. - The Bank of England's recent decision to postpone bond auctions amid global market turmoil has reinforced expectations of a potential halt in bond sales [1]. - The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, indicated that the recent pause in long-term bond sales reflects a tactical move in response to market conditions [3]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments and Strategies - The Bank of England is adapting to recent market volatility, demonstrating transparency and flexibility in protecting the government bond market from unreasonable international pressures [3]. - The central bank is expected to announce its quantitative tightening plan for October in September, with prior indications often provided to investors before such decisions [3]. - The Bank of England has previously reduced its asset purchase program by £100 billion (approximately $134 billion) over 12 months, with £13 billion actively sold and the remainder through bond redemptions [3]. Group 3: External Influences - The performance of UK government bonds is increasingly influenced by fluctuations in US Treasury yields, raising questions about the sustainability of the active quantitative tightening policy [4]. - If the Bank of England maintains that ongoing quantitative tightening will depend on market conditions, it may provide some support for long-term UK government bonds [5].

金十数据5月6日讯，MFS Investment Management首席经济学家兼投资组合经理韦斯曼在一份报告中 说，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在本周的会议上指出，在经历了短暂的动荡之后，美国国债市场正在正常 运转。鲍威尔还可能指出，如果市场条件允许，流动性工具是可用的。此外，随着银行准备金余额不断 下降，可能会有人主张完全终止量化紧缩。但韦斯曼表示，鉴于美联储刚刚放慢了量化宽松的步伐，鲍 威尔近期不太可能觉得有必要在这一领域采取更多行动。 鲍威尔预计将就近期美国国债市场动荡发表看法 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第五， 美乌签署矿产协议。美国国务院发言人布鲁斯5月2日表示，美国将不再在俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判中扮 演调解人的角色 。这一表态意味着美国自 2024 年底以来主导的一系列停火与分阶段撤军方案基本搁浅。 第六 ， OPEC+原油增产。5月4日，OPEC+ 在沙特主导下宣布 6 月起日增产 41.1 万桶 ，从此前"小步增 量"转为激进放量，标志政策转向。沙特此举既意在回应长期超产的哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克，也借高闲置产能遏 制美国页岩油。华尔街随即下调布伦特预测，布伦特原油跌至四年低位至58美元/桶。得益于油价下跌，亚洲 航空公司股价均明显上扬。 。 第七， 亚洲货币普遍上涨，彭博亚洲货币指数触及六个月高位。4月30日至5月5日期间，中国台湾地区新台 币、马来西亚林吉特、韩元、新加坡元、泰铢、离岸人民币、印尼盾分别升值6.64%、2.33%、1.66%、 1.09%、1.07%、0.91%、0.9%。我们理解可能一是资金从美元资产流出；二是市场预期未来亚洲的出口 商将会减少美元持有；三是市场认为现阶段已经从关税风险上行 ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 美国财政部周一在一份声明中表示，已将本季度的联邦借款预估大幅上调，原因是初始现金储备远低于此前预期，这主要是因为美国国会至今 尚未提高联邦债务上限。 现 金 储 备 减 少 举 债 规 模 上 调 分 析 ： D O G E 出 成 效 ， 实 际 借 款 需 求 下 降 美国财政部目前预计，4月至6月期间的净借款将达到5140亿美元，高于今年2月时预测的1230亿美元。按照惯例，财政部此前在做出预测时假定 债务上限问题会被解决（即提高或暂停），但美国国会至今仍在就此议题进行磋商。 此次借款预估比2025年2月宣布的高出3910亿美元，主要是因为本季度初现金余额更低、预计净现金流入减少，部分被量化紧缩（即国债赎回减 少）带来的600亿美元缓解了压力。 而对于7月至9月的第三季度，美国财政部预计净借款将达到5540亿美元，前提仍是假设季度末现金余额为8500亿美元，并假定债务上限问题能 够解决。 | | | | | Sources and Uses Reconciliation Table | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

美联储决议前夕市场观望情绪浓厚，黄金比特币相关性高达0.7，ETF资金持续流入 1. 当前价格走势 2. 市场催化因素与链上数据 3. 操作策略 3.1 美联储决议前观望策略 3.2 突破跟进策略 3.3 回调买入策略 1. 当前价格表现 95,000美元关口争夺激烈：BTC现报约95,085美元（OKX最新数据），较昨日上涨0.22%，日内波 动区间为93,758-95,453美元。近期比特币价格再次站上95,000美元整数关口，但尚未形成有效突 破，价格表现为高位震荡整理态势。从盘面来看，多空双方在95,000美元关口处展开激烈争夺， 市场等待美联储决议提供明确方向。 技术形态维持强势：日线图上比特币处于上升通道中，MACD指标金叉后红柱体继续扩大，RSI 指标位于68左右，接近但未进入超买区域。布林带开口向上，中轨提供有效支撑。4小时图显示， 价格运行于布林带上轨附近，表明短期上涨势头仍然强劲，但可能面临回调整理需求。 ETF资金流入再创新高：据Cointelegraph报道，贝莱德比特币ETF在4月28日单日净流入高达9.71 亿美元，贡献了当日5.91亿美元总净流入的绝大部分，创下今年以来单日流入新 ...

美国财政部周一在一份声明中表示，已将本季度的联邦借款预估大幅上调，原因是初始现金储备远低于此前预期，这主要是因为美国国会至今尚未提高联邦债 务上限。 | | | | 100 | | | 10 | Lot. 4. | - 19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct - Dec | | | | | | | | | | 2024 | Actual | 620 | 620 | (164) | 456 | (164) | 722 | (75) | | Jan - Mar February 3, 2025 | | 520 | 812 | (166) | 649 | 128 | 850 | (75) | | 2025 | Actual | 526 | 369 | (159) | 210 | (316) | 406 | (75) | | Forecast Revisions | | ર | (446) | 7 | (439) | (444) | (444) | 0 | | Apr - Jun February 3, 2025 | | ( ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has significantly raised its federal borrowing estimates for the upcoming quarter due to initial cash reserves being much lower than previously expected, primarily because Congress has yet to raise the federal debt ceiling [1]. Group 1: Borrowing Estimates - The Treasury now expects net borrowing of $514 billion for the April to June period, up from the $123 billion forecast made in February [1]. - This new estimate is $391 billion higher than the forecast made in February 2025, driven by lower initial cash balances and reduced expected net cash inflows [1]. - For the July to September quarter, net borrowing is projected to reach $554 billion, assuming a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of the quarter and that the debt ceiling issue is resolved [1][8]. Group 2: Cash Balance and Debt Ceiling - The Treasury's cash balance was approximately $4.06 billion at the end of the first quarter, significantly lower than the previously estimated $850 billion [3][10]. - If the debt ceiling is not raised, the Treasury will be forced to cut back on short-term Treasury bill issuance and utilize existing cash reserves to maintain spending [4]. - The current cash balance is expected to remain at $850 billion by the end of June, contingent on a resolution to the debt ceiling [4][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The unexpected decrease in borrowing needs has contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, reaching a new low of 4.21% [10]. - Analysts suggest that the Treasury may adjust its cash management strategy in the future, potentially reducing the cash buffer size [6]. - Despite potential worsening of fiscal inflows in the coming quarters, the immediate risk is considered relatively low, with some economists predicting that additional tariff revenues could offset deficit impacts [6].