智通财经APP获悉，英国央行周四将基准利率下调25个基点至4%，为两年多来的最低水平，委员们在 通胀率可能达到4%以及就业市场疲软之间进行权衡。英国央行货币政策委员会的五名委员投票支持降 息25个基点，四名委员支持维持利率不变。此前首轮投票曾出现三方分歧的情况，未能达成多数意见。 这是该委员会28年历史上首次需要两轮投票才能达成最终利率决议的情况。 利率决议公布后，英镑兑美元汇率上涨0.5%，至1.3428。英国国债价格下跌，导致两年期国债收益率上 升6个基点至3.88%，因为货币市场减少了对英国央行明年降息幅度的预期。 由于第一季度经济表现强劲，2025 年经济增长预测也小幅上调至1.25%，但英国央行官员们表示，基本 面"依然低迷"。 会议纪要显示，"未来减少政策限制的时机和步伐将取决于潜在的反通胀压力是否能够持续缓解。随着 利率下调，货币政策的限制性已经减弱。" 周四的降息标志着英国央行自一年前开始降息以来的第五次降息，同时也延续了每次降息25个基点的谨 慎节奏。 英国央行将利率降至两年低点 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利在一份书面声明中表示："这是一个经过深思熟虑的决定。利率仍处于下降趋 势，但未来任何降息 ...

北京时间周四19:00，英国央行将政策利率从4.25%降至4%，为本轮降息周期的第五次降息，符合市场预期。 英国央行表示，"随着利率下调，货币政策的限制性有所下降"，不再直接表示政策仍然是限制性的。英国央行重申，利率方面没有预先设定的路径。 停止降息进程对财政大臣里夫斯和首相斯塔默来说将是一个打击，他们一直在努力实现对选民的承诺，加快英国缓慢的经济增长。 "这是一个非常平衡的决定，"贝利在一份书面声明中说。"利率仍处于下降轨道上，但未来的任何降息都需要逐步和谨慎地进行。" 货币政策委员会表示，通胀上行风险"自5月以来略有走高"，并特别指出食品费用上涨。官员们现在预计9月份通胀率将达到4%，高于此前预测的3.7%的峰 值，该小组对第二轮影响"保持警惕"。 九位决策者中有四位因担心高通胀而寻求维持借贷成本不变。由于难以达成一致，英国货币政策委员会不得不在其历史上首次举行两次利率投票。 由于货币政策委员会在如何应对通货膨胀方面存在分歧，英国央行预测通货膨胀率很快将是其2%目标的两倍，而且最近失业情况恶化，行长贝利和四位同 事支持将利率从4.25%降至4%。 支持维持利率不变的四名成员包括负责货币政策的副行长伦巴德利 ...

英国央行将于北京时间19:00公布利率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告，预计其将第五次下调关键利 率。英国央行行长贝利将在30分钟后召开货币政策新闻发布会。尽管通胀仍处于高位，但就业市场已出 现明显降温迹象，在此背景下，英国央行仍选择谨慎解除对经济的限制。 在某种程度上，英国央行面临的挑战与美联储相似。通胀上升主要源于政府对公用事业定价和税收的决 策。多数政策制定者预计，通胀将随经济增长乏力而回落，但担忧过快降息会延缓这一进程。 然而，部分政策制定者认为，消费者价格不太可能维持当前增速，反而担心若借贷成本居高不下，会导 致过多岗位流失，最终使通胀跌至央行2%目标以下。美联储政策制定者在如何应对更高关税问题上， 也存在类似分歧。 对于英国央行由9人组成的货币政策委员会（MPC）而言，平衡这些冲突风险的方式是每三个月将关键 利率下调25个基点——投资者预计周四这一模式将重演。对多数委员而言，这一节奏既能保持关键利率 的限制性，又能减轻对经济活动的抑制程度。 "货币政策委员会对劳动力市场和通胀风险均持谨慎态度，"摩根士丹利经济学家在给客户的报告中写 道，"数据仍杂乱无章，全球环境高度不确定。在这种情况下，我们认为未来的 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to slow down its bond sales, with a report on its "quantitative tightening" process to be released alongside its monetary policy decision [1][3] - Current annual bond sales are projected at £100 billion, with a majority of analysts anticipating a reduction to between £60 billion and £80 billion [1] - Recent volatility in long-term bond prices has heightened market focus on the Bank's quantitative tightening policy, with expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut [1][3] Group 2 - The Bank of England plans to reduce its bond holdings by allowing £87 billion of maturing debt to roll off naturally and actively selling £13 billion [3] - Previous assessments indicated limited market impact from quantitative tightening, but recent comments from officials suggest a more cautious approach [3][6] - There are calls from market participants for the Bank to reduce active sales of long-term bonds due to rising borrowing costs, with some experts suggesting a halt to such sales [6]

摩根大通发布研报，认为英国央行本周四将利率下调25个基点，至4.0%，与市场普遍预期一致。摩根 大通表示，尽管内部存在分歧，英国央行可能会坚持"逐步"降息的指引。 摩根大通表示，由于英国央行目前处境艰难，无法明确发出不再持续降息25个基点的信号，所以或许最 简单的方法就是继续沿用"逐步且谨慎"降息的指导方针。然而，这一指导方针似乎不再能反映目前英国 央行货币政策委员会成员们的实际观点。 自5月以来的投票结果显示，有三位成员支持加快降息步伐(丁格拉、泰勒和拉姆斯登)，而有两位认为 英国央行应该放缓降息速度(曼恩和皮尔)。这意味着货币政策委员会的九名成员中，大多数人希望采取 非渐进式的措施。鉴于政策指引应当真实反映委员会至少半数成员的观点，因此确实有必要做出改变。 一种解决办法是，货币政策委员会可以继续采用"渐进"这一表述，但对其内涵进行重新定义。货币政策 委员会可能会表示，尽管有必要进一步放宽政策，但"宽松的速度将取决于不断变化的风险平衡，包括 劳动力市场的动态以及通胀持续性的进展。" 由于今年货币政策委员会内部出现了诸多不同的观点，此次投票结果难以预测。摩根大通预计与上次会 议的情况类似，即有五名委员主张降息 ...

美联储最新利率决议出炉。 北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储连续第五次议息会议决定暂停降息，且并未发 出9月可能降息的信号。 相比利率决议，美联储的内部分歧成为本次议息会议更大的看点。两名美联储官员在本次会议上投出了反对票，都支持降息25个基点。有分析指出，这凸显联储决 策者对关税影响的共识在破裂。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话释放了偏"鹰派"的政策信号。 他表示，美联储"尚未就9月是否调整政策做出任何决定"。这一表态令市场对9月降息 甚至年底前再次降息的预期降温 ，美股三大指数一度集体跳水，盘中由涨转跌。 美联储宣布 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 回顾此前，美联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，但自今年1月美国总统特朗普上任以来，美联储一直"按兵不动"。 值得一提的是，本次暂停降息的决策没有得到全体联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票委员的一致支持，其中美联储负责金融监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼 ...

德意志银行：量化紧缩计划下，英国央行可能会推迟出售长期国债 金十数据7月23日讯，德意志银行的分析师Sanjay Raja在一份报告中表示，英国央行可能会在其量化紧 缩计划中推迟出售长期英国国债。Raja说，对长期英国国债的需求下降，可能会导致债券发行从10月份 推迟到2026年第一季度。根据计划，英国央行将在9月18日公布自10月起未来12个月的国债出售方案。 他表示："考虑到挥之不去的担忧和当前的市场预期，我们预计货币政策委员会将采取一种渐进而谨慎 的方式来实施量化紧缩。" ...

英国央行行长贝利：不会就未来12个月量化紧缩的节奏制定过程发表评论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is under pressure to hold a significant portion of its long-term government bonds, potentially for decades, due to market volatility and changing buyer dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Forecasting institutions, including Oxford Economics and HSBC, predict that the Bank of England will limit the sale of its remaining £163 billion (approximately $219 billion) of government bonds with maturities over 20 years, marking a shift in its approach to reducing its crisis-era balance sheet [1]. - The market for long-term UK government bonds is increasingly reliant on more volatile hedge funds and foreign investors, as traditional stable buyers like pension funds reduce their demand [1]. - Recent market events, such as the sell-off of 30-year bonds due to rumors of the Chancellor's dismissal, highlight the fragility of the current market environment [1]. Group 2: Quantitative Tightening Strategy - The Bank of England is currently reducing its bond holdings at a rate of approximately £100 billion per year, with plans for £13 billion in active sales and £87 billion in natural maturities [2]. - There is a potential slowdown in the quantitative tightening process, with expectations of only £26 billion in active sales next year, which could pose market risks [2]. - The Bank of England's Governor has indicated changes in the liquidity of the long-end yield curve, suggesting future sales may be lower than previously anticipated [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Michael Saunders, a former rate setter at the Bank of England, advocates for a new strategy where a significant portion of long-term debt will not be sold, aiming to reduce risks to market stability [2][5]. - Saunders' proposal includes retaining £163 billion of long-term bonds while continuing to reduce holdings of bonds with maturities between 3 to 20 years, which could mitigate the risk of market disruption [5]. - The plan involves recognizing losses on certain bonds, which would be offset by the Bank's cash holdings, making the arrangement financially beneficial [5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The Bank of England has purchased more long-term government bonds than other central banks following the financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic, necessitating active debt sales while other central banks can allow their balance sheets to shrink naturally [6].

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh calls for a comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve's operations and suggests a policy alliance with the Treasury Department, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy approach [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy - Warsh criticizes the current Federal Reserve officials, particularly Chairman Jerome Powell, for their credibility issues and failure to lower interest rates, which aligns with President Trump's demands [1][2]. - There is speculation about Trump's potential actions regarding Powell's position, with discussions among Republican lawmakers about possibly dismissing him [2][3]. - Warsh believes that the Federal Reserve's mechanism change is inevitable and emphasizes the need for a new "Treasury-Fed agreement" to manage national debt issuance effectively [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Policy - Warsh argues that the delay in interest rate cuts is a significant flaw and that public pressure from the President on the Federal Reserve is justified [2][3]. - He supports the current policy of quantitative tightening but insists on collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to lower borrowing costs [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at the end of July but may begin to cut rates in September [6].