Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company achieved a historical high in profitability, with a gross margin of 12.47% and a net margin of 7.97%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a significant revenue increase of 50.99% year-on-year, reaching 175.40 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 145.19% year-on-year, amounting to 15.76 billion yuan [6][2] - The company is actively expanding production capacity to support the launch of new models, with inventory levels indicating strong short-term demand [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 428.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.37% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.94 billion yuan, an increase of 12.86% year-on-year [6][2] - The Q4 2024 results showed a remarkable recovery, with revenue of 175.40 billion yuan and net profit of 15.76 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround from earlier quarters [6][2] Operational Insights - The company has successfully navigated external challenges related to contract signing and supply chain issues, achieving a balanced production goal [2][6] - The inventory balance at the end of 2024 reached a historical high of 136.01 billion yuan, reflecting robust short-term demand and ongoing capacity expansion [2][6] Profitability and Efficiency - The company maintained a stable gross margin throughout the year, with a historical high net margin of 9.15% in Q4 2024, driven by effective cost control measures [2][6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to grow to 39.56 billion yuan, 47.32 billion yuan, and 55.77 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 26, and 22 times [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Shenzhou International (02313) while lowering the target price by 14.5% to HKD 69.89, reflecting a decrease in overall industry valuation [1] Group 1: 2024 Performance - The company reported a 15% increase in revenue to RMB 28.7 billion and a 37% increase in net profit to RMB 6.2 billion, exceeding CICC's expectations due to higher-than-expected revenue growth and a one-time gain from asset sales of RMB 337 million [2] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 1.28 per share, totaling HKD 2.53 per share for the year, with a payout ratio of 55.8% [2] - CICC expects a 17% revenue growth in 2H24 driven by a 20% year-on-year increase in order volume, maintaining high growth trends despite rising bases [2] Group 2: Sales Performance by Brand and Region - Revenue growth for major brands in 2H24 is projected as follows: Uniqlo +32%, Nike -2%, Adidas +48%, Puma +23%, indicating Shenzhou's increasing market share among key clients [2] - Revenue growth by region for 2024 is expected to be: China +13%, Europe +3%, Japan +32%, USA +19% [2] - A slight decline of approximately 3% in RMB unit price is anticipated in 2H24 due to product mix and raw material price decreases, although this is an improvement from a 7% decline in 1H24 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin is expected to increase by 3.8 percentage points year-on-year to 28.1% for 2024, with 2H24 gross margin at 27.4%, benefiting from improved capacity utilization [3] - A slight decrease in gross margin quarter-on-quarter is attributed to increased employee numbers and wages, but the company believes there is significant room for future margin improvement [3] - Despite a reduction in government subsidies and foreign exchange gains totaling RMB 145 million, net profit still achieved a 37% growth due to favorable factors including a gain from asset disposal [3] Group 4: Future Capacity and Order Growth - The company plans to increase its workforce by 10,000 to 102,700 employees in 2024, with new factory recruitment in Cambodia starting in March 2025 for about 6,000 positions [4] - Order volume is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025, despite pressures from major client Nike, supported by healthy growth from other clients [4] - As employee efficiency improves, the management anticipates a stable increase in gross margin for 2025 [4]