有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 1.08%至 9354 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.86%至 77610 元/吨；现货 | | | 进口窗口关闭，但亏损减弱。宏观方面，昨晚美国白宫态度出现重大转变，此前一直批 | | | 评美联储主席鲍威尔降息不够迅速、甚至威胁将其解雇的美国总统特朗普表示，无意解 | | | 雇鲍威尔。另外，美国财长贝森特表示，关税僵局不可持续，预计将在不久的将来，形 势有所缓和。白宫新闻秘书宣称，贸易谈判正取得进展，本周将与 34 个国家开会，并 | | | 表示特朗普希望降息，希望美元继续扮演全球储备货币的角色。库存方面，LME 铜库 | | 铜 | 存下降 700 吨至 212700 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 2235.33 吨至 116355.8 吨；SHFE 铜仓单 | | | 下降 6098 吨至 46693 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 603 吨至 11327 吨。需求方面，下游开工和订 | | | 单保持平稳，节前备货或进一步加快库存去化。3 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton prices are under pressure to decline due to factors such as domestic over - capacity in the industrial chain, limited consumption growth, tariff policy adjustments, potential increases in cotton production in Xinjiang and Brazil, and the impact of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - PTA prices are under pressure to decline mainly because of poor terminal weaving orders, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [3]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and decline due to low international crude oil prices, the impact of tariff policies on imports, and weak market sentiment [4]. - Short - fiber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak raw material prices and declining terminal textile demand [5]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, affected by factors such as short - term tight trade flow in the international sugar market, Brazilian production and weather conditions, and domestic import data and sales progress [7]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly as apple出库 is good and inventory is low, but macro risks need to be monitored [7]. Summary by Variety Cotton - Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. About 60% of the sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning factories has been released, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders [1]. - The external market is relatively weak, with the CFTC fund holding a net short position and the industry holding a net long position [1]. - In the second quarter, the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, cotton production in Xinjiang may increase by 10%, and the new - year cotton output may reach 720 - 750 million tons. Brazilian cotton production is also increasing, which is bearish for cotton prices [1]. - On April 16, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,252 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [11]. PTA - As of April 16, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,270 yuan/ton. The terminal weaving situation is weak, and the downstream polyester demand is weak. The spot basis has strengthened slightly, and the market transaction is mediocre [10]. - The PTA capacity utilization rate remained at 76.41%, and the polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 91.31%, down 0.12% from the previous day. The PTA de - stocking continued [3]. - The decline is mainly due to poor terminal weaving orders. As of the beginning of this week, the comprehensive starting rate of domestic major weaving production bases was 56.57%, down 2.34% from last week [3]. Ethylene Glycol - International crude oil prices are low, and cost support is poor. The tariff policy affects imports, and the number of arrivals is expected to decrease. Although short - term polyester start - up is okay, market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to decline [4]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, up 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, up 0.48% from last week [16]. Short - fiber - Raw material prices are weak, and terminal textile demand is expected to decline. The short - fiber market is difficult to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - As of the 10th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate average was 82.84%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month [14]. Sugar - In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but with the start of the Brazilian sugar - making season and the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the ICE sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. - Domestically, imports have decreased year - on - year, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the later stage, as consumption increases, the price may be boosted [7]. - In April , Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks were 632,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.37%. From January to March 2025, Ukraine's sugar imports were 230 tons, 37% of the same period in 2024, and exports were 152,620 tons, 72% of the same period in 2024 [15]. Apple - The overall apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. However, macro risks need to be monitored [7]. - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 3.9863 million tons, a decrease of 389,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking was accelerating year - on - year [17]. Macroeconomic Information - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [11]. - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.094 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11]. - The US has increased tariffs on China, and China has stated its position on the tariff issue [11].

1. Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: After short - term release of export slowdown, the market rebounds, but the benchmark contract conversion affects the price. In China, the production cycle starts, and the price may fluctuate widely in the medium - and short - term [1]. - Soybean oil: The impact of Sino - US trade disputes is digested. The NOPA report may show an increase in US soybean oil inventory, but it is still lower than last year. In China, soybean supply shortage will last until the end of the month, and the basis price will decline as Brazilian soybeans arrive [1]. Sugar Industry - The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar season, which will suppress prices in the long - term. Raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic market follows the raw sugar trend, with price support but limited upside due to increasing industrial inventory [3]. Cotton Industry - Macroeconomic uncertainties remain high, and the downstream demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Egg Industry - Egg supply and demand are generally balanced, and the national egg price is expected to remain stable this week [7]. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are affected by tariff policies and inventory adjustments. Brazilian supply pressure is increasing. In China, slow customs clearance affects soybean inventory, and the meal basis is boosted. The market may face a short - term correction [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn supply is tightening in the long - term, but short - term factors are mixed. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn starch shows some price differences compared to corn [12]. Pig Industry - The pig futures price is pushed up by feed trends and second - round fattening. In the short - term, the price may be strong, but the sustainability is uncertain due to supply pressure and weak demand [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices all declined compared to April 14. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.37% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.19%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.16% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of sugar 2505 increased by 0.07%, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.32%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.42% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.27% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 26.64% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of cotton 2505 decreased by 0.86%, and the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.85% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B increased slightly, and the FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 2.15% [4]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 6.5%, and the export of textile yarn and fabric increased by 93.8% [4]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.05%, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 0.10% [7]. - **Related Data**: The egg - feed ratio was 2.53, and the breeding profit was - 15.78 yuan/feather [7]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 1.82%, and the price of the M2509 contract decreased by 1.22% [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in 2509 increased by 2.61% [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On April 15, 2025, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.35%, and the import profit decreased by 5.78% [12]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 increased by 0.26%, and the starch - corn spread increased by 4.27% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of the pig 2505 contract decreased by 8.33%, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.28% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Sichuan increased by 130 yuan/ton [16]. - **Related Data**: The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.19%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 8.83% [16].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has agreed to exempt certain electronic products, including smartphones, computers, and chips, from "reciprocal tariffs" [2][5] - This exemption applies to products entering the U.S. after April 5, and companies can seek refunds for tariffs already paid [5] - Analysts suggest this marks a significant shift in U.S. tariff policy, indicating a "180-degree turn" [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. bond market has experienced a historic sell-off, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising nearly 50 basis points, the largest increase since 2001 [10] - The sell-off has led to a significant outflow from U.S. stocks and bonds, with funds moving towards gold as a safe haven, pushing gold prices above $3200 per ounce [10] - Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have been raised by financial leaders, including BlackRock's CEO [12] Group 3 - The recent tariff exemptions are seen as beneficial for companies within the Nvidia and Apple supply chains, potentially alleviating previous concerns about export tariffs [16] - Analysts believe that the removal of tariff worries could lead to a recovery in earnings per share (EPS) for the Apple supply chain [16] - Investment considerations for companies like Luxshare Precision and GoerTek include assessing their valuation and the impact of institutional buying during recent market volatility [17][18]

Company Overview - Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) shares increased by 14.3% to close at $131.55, following a period of 22% loss over the past four weeks, indicating a significant recovery in stock performance [1][2]. Market Influence - The surge in Chart Industries' stock was driven by the Trump administration's announcement of a temporary halt on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, aimed at alleviating market sell-off concerns and recession fears [2]. Earnings Expectations - The company is projected to report quarterly earnings of $1.93 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29.5%. Revenue is expected to reach $1.01 billion, marking a 6.3% rise from the previous year [3]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate for Chart Industries has been revised down by 1.2% over the last 30 days, which typically does not correlate with price appreciation, suggesting caution in future stock performance [4]. Industry Context - Chart Industries operates within the Zacks Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, where another company, Luxfer (LXFR), saw a 9.2% increase in its stock price, although it has experienced a -22.9% return over the past month [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton, Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report date: April 10, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,155 with a gain of 215, trading volume decreased by 6,488 to 17,175 lots, and open interest increased by 153 to 31,990 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 12,820 with a gain of 235, trading volume decreased by 162,198 to 389,624 lots, and open interest decreased by 48,399 to 342,591 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 12,985 with a gain of 225, trading volume decreased by 81,777 to 344,621 lots, and open interest increased by 25,241 to 374,237 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 18,845 with a gain of 15, trading volume decreased by 1 to 3 lots, and open interest decreased by 1 to 7 lots [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,915 with a gain of 275, trading volume decreased by 3,697 to 3,766 lots, and open interest decreased by 381 to 1,558 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 18,935 with a gain of 290, trading volume increased by 304 to 608 lots, and open interest increased by 290 to 1,074 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 14,464 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A price was 77.95 cents/pound, up 2.70 cents/pound [3] - FC Index:M: arrival price was 76.56 cents/pound, down 0.56 cents/pound [3] - Polyester staple fiber price was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Viscose staple fiber price was 13,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] Spread - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 335, down 20; 5 - 9 spread was - 165, up 10; 9 - 1 spread was - 170, up 10 [3] - Yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 70, down 260; 5 - 9 spread was - 20, down 15; 9 - 1 spread was 90, up 275 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 spread was 5,690, down 200; CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,095, up 40; CY09 - CF09 spread was 5,950, up 65 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 769, down 61; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 48, down 83; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,515, down 450 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of tariff measures, during which the reciprocal tariff was significantly reduced to 10% [6] - China adjusted the additional tariff rate on US - originated imported goods from 34% to 84% starting from April 10, 2025, at 12:01 [6][8] - As of the week ending April 6, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 55,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [6] - India's cumulative cotton market volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.2175 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [6] - As of the week ending April 6, 2025, the average temperature in the main US cotton - producing areas was 66.77°F, 3.05°F higher than the same period last year [7] - The average rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas was 0.88 inches, 0.44 inches higher than the same period last year [7] Trading Logic - After the US postponed the additional tariffs on other countries, some of the previous market bearish factors were released, but market uncertainty increased, so short - term waiting and seeing was recommended [8][9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term due to increased market uncertainty [9] - Arbitrage: Consider shorting 09 and going long 01 [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Under the influence of macro factors, the cotton yarn market trading was weak, and the yarn price continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of 300 - 500 yuan/ton [11] - After China raised tariffs on the US and the US adjusted its tariff policy, the futures and stock markets may rebound, and the all - cotton grey fabric trading may recover [11] Group 4: Options - On April 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 238, with a gain of 17.2%, and the implied volatility was 13.1% [13] - The closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 279, with a loss of 36.7%, and the implied volatility was 14.9% [13] - The closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 170, with a loss of 44.1%, and the implied volatility was 15.7% [13] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4662, with a slight increase compared to the previous day [13] - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.5543, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.8209. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased, indicating a significant bearish sentiment in the market [14] - Option strategy: Wait and see [15] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][23][25][29]