Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The Trump administration has extended the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1, with potential higher tariff rates on 14 countries unless trade policy concessions are made [1][2] - The proposed tariff rates range from 25% to 40%, which could increase the US effective tariff rate (ETR) by approximately 1.4 percentage points if implemented [3][4] - The expectation is that these proposed rates will not take effect on August 1, although there is a risk that some countries may face higher rates temporarily [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Extensions and Proposals - President Trump signed an executive order delaying the tariff deadline to August 1, indicating that it is unlikely for US tariffs to rise in the interim [2] - Letters were sent to various countries, including Bangladesh, Japan, and South Korea, outlining potential tariff increases unless trade concessions are made [3] Impact on Effective Tariff Rate - The report estimates a baseline expectation of a 14 percentage point increase in the ETR this year, with about 9 percentage points already implemented [1] - The proposed tariff increases would replace the current 10% baseline tariff for the affected countries, leading to an overall increase in the ETR [3] Trade Partner Dynamics - The report notes that the Trump administration did not send similar letters to major trading partners like the European Union and India, suggesting these partners may be in a better position to negotiate [4] - There is an anticipation of sectoral tariffs being announced soon, particularly in industries such as pharmaceuticals and electronics [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has signed an executive order extending the deadline for tariffs to August 1 [1] Group 2 - The extension of the tariff deadline may impact trade relations and economic conditions [1] - This decision could influence various industries that are reliant on imports and exports [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. White House will sign an executive order to extend the tariff deadline originally set for July to August 1 [1]

Core Point - The European Commission has removed tariff preferences for non-fuel ethanol imports from Pakistan [1] Group 1 - The decision impacts the cost structure for Pakistani ethanol exporters, potentially making their products less competitive in the EU market [1] - The removal of tariff preferences may lead to a decrease in the volume of non-fuel ethanol imported from Pakistan [1] - This change aligns with the EU's broader trade policy adjustments and could influence future trade negotiations with Pakistan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on household appliances containing steel components, effective from June 23, which includes dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, ovens, and freezers [1][9] - The new tariff policy expands the range of products subject to tariffs and includes eight categories of household appliances as "steel derivative products" [1][9] - An exception clause allows products made with steel sourced from U.S. foundries to be exempt from tariffs, even if processed overseas [1][9] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Tariff Policy Adjustment - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on household appliances with steel components starting June 23, affecting various products [1][9] - Eight categories of appliances are newly classified as "steel derivative products" [1][9] 2. Company Key Announcements - TCL Smart Home announced adjustments to its Southeast Asia production base, planning to invest up to 0.08 billion RMB for a new freezer production line in Thailand, with an expected capacity of 300,000 units per year [3][13] - A second phase will involve purchasing land for a new refrigerator production line with an investment budget of up to 0.6 billion RMB, aiming for an additional capacity of 1.4 million units per year [3][13] 3. Data Tracking - Exports of washing machines and dryers from China to the U.S. showed significant recovery in 2023, with continued growth expected in 2024, although growth rates may slow in early 2025 [2][10] - The share of washing machines exported to the U.S. is relatively low at 3.9%, while dishwashers have a higher share at 13.7% [2][10] - The tariff changes may temporarily suppress export growth for dryers and dishwashers, but overall, China's washing machine exports are not heavily reliant on the U.S. market [2][10] 4. Raw Material Data - As of June 13, 2025, LME copper prices decreased by 1.4%, while aluminum prices increased by 2.2% [16] - The DCE plastic settlement price rose by 2.0%, and the comprehensive steel price index increased by 0.2% [16] 5. Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index for shipping rates increased by 7.63% as of June 13, 2025 [18] - The USD to RMB exchange rate saw a slight increase of 0.003% [18] 6. Real Estate Data - In the first four months of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 3%, with housing starts down by 24% [22]

Group 1 - The Indian government has reduced the basic import tariffs on crude palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil from 20% to 10%, while maintaining a high tariff of 35.75% on refined oils [1][4] - This tariff adjustment aims to control the rising edible oil prices, which have increased by 12% year-on-year, causing a 5% rise in the price of 5-kilogram packs of cooking oil in supermarkets [4] - The reduction in tariffs is a response to the significant drop in edible oil stocks in India, from 2.92 million tons at the end of last year to 1.35 million tons in May this year [4] Group 2 - The widening tariff differential has led to a surge in processing profits for refineries, increasing from $30 per ton to $80 per ton, prompting refineries in Gujarat to ramp up production [4] - The export volume from Malaysia to India surged by 35% in June, while Indonesia has redirected palm oil intended for biodiesel to the market [4] - The frequent changes in tariff policies have created confusion among traders, with intermediaries in Nepal who profited from high tariffs last year now facing a shift in their business model [4]

银行内部也担心90天窗口期后，美国再度调整对华对等关税政 策导致中国输美商品因缴纳更高关税而滞留美国港口（难以清 关），令外贸企业一时收不到剩余货款用于偿还银行外贸贷款 本息。 作者： 陈植 封图：图虫创意 导读 壹 || 现在银行在发放新的外贸贷款前，都会了解企业有没有把握在90天窗口期内将产品运抵 美国港口完成清关并交付给美国客户，作为他们发放这笔贷款的新依据。 究其原因，银行内部也担心90天窗口期后，美国再度调整对华对等关税政策导致中国输美商品因 缴纳更高关税而滞留美国港口（难以清关），令外贸企业一时收不到剩余货款用于偿还银行外贸贷 款本息。 他告诉记者，为了确保已发放的外贸贷款能"顺利偿还"，他所在的银行对公部门员工一面经常跑去 外贸企业厂房，实地了解企业订单生产交付最新进展，一面通过个人关系，协助部分外贸企业订船 期舱位，确保产品能在90天窗口期内运抵美国港口完成清关，从而按照合同约定收到美国客户剩 余货款以偿还银行外贸贷款。 有些外贸企业急于"抢出口"，也有外贸企业淡定应对关税争端。 贰 || 国有大型银行正加强对外贸企业的外汇避险金融服务，围绕大型外贸企业的多元化金融 服务需求，要求做好"一企一 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.214 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 31.76% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 188 million CNY, up 18.16% year-on-year [3] - Growth driven by strong demand from European clients, expansion of MicroTouch™ brand, and new products from subsidiary Hongtong Technology entering mass production [3] Group 2: Strategic Plans for 2025 - Focus on three main business segments: ODM, MicroTouch™ brand, and smart cockpit, with strategic adjustments for collaborative development [3] - Continuous improvement of the global manufacturing system to enhance core competitiveness [3] - Ongoing enhancement of core technology R&D capabilities [3] - Development of an efficient global team to expand and maintain global customer relationships [3] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Trade - Current tariff rates for exports to the U.S. are between 20-30% due to recent adjustments [4] - Limited short-term impact on business due to product exemptions in the U.S. customs list, but potential long-term benefits if tariff policies stabilize [4] Group 4: Factory Developments - The Thailand factory achieved mass production in 2024, establishing a dual factory layout for smart cockpit business [5] - Plans to expand production capacity in Thailand with new assembly lines to enhance supply chain resilience [5] Group 5: Market Expansion and Product Strategy - The company is evaluating the possibility of establishing factories in Europe and the U.S. to mitigate geopolitical risks [6] - As of the end of 2024, the smart cockpit industry application increased to 30%, while retail remains the largest sector at over 40% [7] - Sufficient orders on hand for Q2 2025, with management aiming to meet revenue targets despite challenges [8] Group 6: MicroTouch Brand Development - In 2025, the focus will shift from channel construction to product development, enhancing product design capabilities to increase market share and brand value [9] Group 7: Automotive Display Business - Multiple vehicle models will enter mass production in 2025, targeting both new energy vehicles and traditional car manufacturers [10] - Strategies to improve gross margins in the automotive display sector include new customer acquisition and optimizing product structure [11]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 瓦楞纸日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 第二部分 行情研判 瓦楞及箱板纸市场主流持稳，部分上调。中国 AA 级 120g 瓦楞纸市场日均价为 2540 元/ 吨，环比上一工作日上涨 0.22%；中国箱板纸市场均价 3524.4 元/吨，环比上涨 0.15%。 市场情绪：市场多数持稳，个别上行。规模纸厂报价上行，带动局部地区价格上调，目 前下游订单暂时未见明显改善，部分下游拿货节奏有所放缓，纸厂库存压力较前期有所减轻， 开工多是正常。 山东市场：废黄板纸市场价格上涨。全国均价为 1452 元/吨，上涨 7 元/吨。打包站回 收量一般，出货意向稳定，局部废黄板纸供应偏少。纸厂采购意向偏强，龙头纸企采购价格 有所上涨，部分纸厂跟涨，整体呈现南涨北稳趋势。（卓创） $$\mathbf{1}\;\;/\;\;\mathbf{4}$$ 研究员：朱四祥 F03127108 投资咨询证号： Z0020124 联系方式： : zhusixiang_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业证号： 瓦楞纸日报 第一部分 数据分析 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 【逻辑分析】 近期纸企集 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant reduction of tariffs on Chinese imports by the US and the corresponding decrease in tariffs on US imports by China, which is expected to reshape trade dynamics between the two countries [1][3][5] - The US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% over the next three months, while China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] - Brazil's soybean export premium has dropped, and US futures prices have reached a three-month high due to expectations that China may purchase more soybeans from the US [1][3] Group 2 - China has been investing in upgrading infrastructure in Brazil, including the Santos port, which will shorten the transportation cycle for Brazilian soybeans to China to 23 days and increase annual throughput by 30% [1] - Chinese companies have invested $3.5 billion in building a deep-water port in Peru and are laying down a thousand-kilometer railway network in Brazil, which will double the export capacity of South American food to China [1] - In 2024, Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach 3.5 times that of the US, indicating a significant shift in supply sources [3] Group 3 - Following the tariff adjustments, there has been a 277% surge in container bookings from China to the US, indicating a rapid response in the shipping market [5] - The average booking volume for container transport from China to the US reached 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units, a significant increase from the previous week's 5,709 units [5] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to last until August 12, and there is optimism among US businesses regarding potential further negotiations and tariff reductions [5] Group 4 - Despite the tariff reductions, US farmers express that the pause in tariffs is insufficient, highlighting ongoing challenges in regaining market share in China [1][3] - The article notes that the US has struggled to compete in the soybean market, with Chinese imports from Brazil and Argentina rapidly increasing since the trade tensions began [3] - The article also mentions that high tariffs on Chinese goods have led to increased consumer dissatisfaction in the US, impacting political support for current policies [7]