Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The potential for a trade agreement between the US and EU is seen as beneficial for all parties involved, with a likelihood of reaching an agreement despite current tensions [1][4] - The proposed 10% baseline tariff by the Trump administration is expected to become a long-term arrangement, which may not severely hinder trade but is higher than previous rates [3][4] - The adjustment of production activities back to the US is anticipated as companies adapt to tariffs, particularly in strategic industries like steel and aluminum [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The primary risk for the market in the second half of the year is the outlook for US economic growth, particularly if consumer demand shows signs of significant slowdown [1][12] - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious stance due to concerns over the dual impact of tariffs on growth and inflation, with potential interest rate cuts expected later in the year [5][12] - The European Central Bank is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, with inflation in the Eurozone declining, which may influence capital flows and investment strategies [5] Group 3: Currency and Market Dynamics - The current weakness of the US dollar is attributed to a shift in global capital allocation, with investors moving away from US assets towards other markets [6] - European stock markets have shown resilience, with better opportunities identified in emerging market stocks rather than European equities [7] Group 4: Investment Preferences and Themes - The focus remains on equities rather than fixed income assets, with a belief in continued global economic growth despite concerns over tariffs [8] - The themes of defense, energy security, and artificial intelligence are expected to persist, with AI companies showing stable earnings expectations despite external market pressures [9][11] Group 5: ESG and Renewable Energy - The demand for renewable energy is increasing due to the need for substantial energy resources, driven by the operational requirements of AI technologies [11] - The dual motivation of moral responsibility and economic necessity is propelling the growth of ESG investments [11]

根据欧盟和荷兰国际集团（ING Groep NV）分析师汇编的数据，2024年，欧盟向其最大出口目的地美 国出口了价值528亿欧元（约622亿美元）的汽车和汽车零部件。维也纳国际经济研究所的数据显示，该 集团向美国出口了240亿欧元的钢铁和铝，其中以德国、意大利和法国为主。 据外媒早些时候报道，欧盟和美国越来越相信，可以在7月9日之前达成一项临时协议，以允许谈判在最 后期限之后继续进行。知情人士称，任何协议都将涵盖关税和非关税壁垒、关键美国商品的采购，并勾 勒出额外的合作领域。 知情人士称，欧盟贸易主管马罗什·谢夫乔维奇（Maros Sefcovic）本周将率代表团前往华盛顿，试图推 动会谈取得进展。该集团仍然认为，达成一项原则性协议是最佳情景，但官员们一直无法澄清，在谈判 继续的情况下，任何此类临时安排将持续多久。 据知情人士透露，欧盟愿意接受与美国的一项贸易安排，其中包括对该集团的许多出口商品征收10%的 普遍性关税，但希望美国承诺对药品、酒精、半导体和商用飞机等关键行业实行较低的税率。 知情人士称，欧盟还在推动美国提供配额和豁免，以有效降低华盛顿对汽车和汽车零部件征收的25%关 税，以及对钢铁和铝征收的 ...

五名熟悉谈判情况的消息人士称，欧洲官员日益倾向于接受10%的"对等"关税税率作为任何美国与欧盟 贸易协议的基线。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已宣布对贸易伙伴征收大范围关税，并希望减少美国对欧盟的商品贸易逆差。 美国商务部长卢特尼克已排除了将所谓对等关税的基准税率降至10%以下的可能性，该关税覆盖了欧盟 出口到美国的大部分商品。 由于会谈的敏感性，这些不愿透露姓名的欧洲消息人士表示，欧盟谈判代表仍在争取将税率降至10%以 下。 但其中一位消息人士，一名欧盟官员表示，自从美国开始从其全球关税中获得收入以来，将税率谈下来 的难度加大了。 "10%是个棘手的问题。我们正在向他们施压，但现在他们已经尝到了甜头，"这位官员说。 第二位欧洲消息人士称，欧盟在谈判中并未接受10%作为基准税率，但也承认要改变或取消这一基线将 非常困难。 美国官员长期以来一直抱持着美国最终将与其贸易伙伴达成更高关税协议的设想，并且不期望在与欧盟 的谈判中偏离10%的关税税率。 华盛顿方面试图将数字服务税、企业可持续性报告规则等非关税壁垒，以及液化天然气（LNG）销售 和食品标准纳入谈判。 美国4月份的预算盈余为2580亿美元，比去年同期增长23%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing significant countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on over $100 billion worth of American goods, as trade negotiations intensify and the deadline approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US may extend beyond the July 9 deadline, with only a principle agreement likely to be reached by then [1][2]. - EU officials have engaged in frequent discussions with US counterparts, focusing on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [2]. - Despite a seemingly positive negotiation atmosphere, the EU perceives the US demands as unilateral and potentially skewed in favor of Washington [2]. Group 2: Countermeasures Prepared by the EU - The EU has prepared a two-tiered response plan, with the first tier targeting $210 billion worth of US goods, including politically sensitive products like soybeans and poultry [4]. - The second tier is more aggressive, aimed at $950 billion worth of US products, specifically targeting Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [4]. - The EU estimates that current US tariffs affect approximately €380 billion ($434 billion) of EU exports to the US, representing about 70% of total EU exports to the US [3]. Group 3: EU's Stance on Tariffs - The EU Commission has expressed readiness to defend its interests and protect its workers, consumers, and industries, while also indicating a preference for reducing tariffs rather than increasing them [6].

金十数据6月4日讯，当地时间6月4日，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，美国宣布提高钢铝关税是一项"不公平 的措施"，没有法律依据，因为墨美间存在贸易协定。辛鲍姆宣布，当天将与全国钢铁和铝业商会举行 会议，经济部长埃布拉德也将与美国商务部长会面。辛鲍姆表示，如果不能与美国达成协议，将会采取 应对措施。 美国上调钢铝关税 墨西哥：不公平 无法律依据 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，波兰经济部副部长巴拉诺夫斯基周四说，欧盟和美国之间的谈判正在加快，但欧 盟更希望达成一个好的协议，而不是快速达成一个贸易协议。特朗普征收了一系列影响欧洲汽车、钢铁 和铝制造商的行业关税，但后来后又将关税降至10%，为期90天，以便进行谈判。"我们看到了一些乐 观的因素，因为我们看到了美国方面缓和局势的因素，"主持欧盟贸易官员会议的巴拉诺夫斯基表 示。"这是一个好迹象，表明与欧盟的谈判正在加快。"欧盟委员会副主席谢夫乔维奇也在会议前对记者 表示，他在周三与美国商务部长卢特尼克进行了"建设性的通话"。谢夫乔维奇说："我们的目标是解决 眼前的挑战，同时也为更深层次的合作奠定基础。" 欧盟官员：欧盟认为与美国的贸易谈判正在加速 ...

当地时间5月8日，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协议。这项贸易协议承诺两国将加强工业和农业市场准 入，确保简化美国出口产品的海关手续。美国同意对英国汽车征收232条款关税的替代安排，根据该协 议，英国汽车制造商每年出口到美国的前10万辆汽车适用10%的互惠税率，每年出口的其他汽车适用 25%的税率。此外，这项协议为两国建立了一个新的钢铁和铝贸易联盟，美国将通过谈判达成钢铝232 条款关税的替代安排。 ...

日本首相石破茂3日表示，对美国当天开始对关键汽车零部件加征25%关税非常遗憾，将继续要求美国 重新审视相关关税措施。据日本广播协会报道，石破茂当天与日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正会面，听取第 二轮日美关税谈判详情汇报。赤泽亮正刚刚结束第二轮日美关税谈判返日。石破茂在会面后对媒体表 示，日本正与美国就包含汽车、钢铁和铝等产品的关税措施进行谈判。日美两国立场存在分歧，尚未找 到共识。日本广播协会援引日本政府相关人士的消息报道称，在第二轮谈判中，日方再次强烈要求重新 审视一系列关税措施，但美方继续坚持不能在汽车、钢铁等产品上给予日本"特殊待遇"。(新华社) ...