金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20250609-20250613） 本周热度变化最大行业为石油石化、有色金属 ❖ 本周市场热度跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为沪深 300，相比上周提高 7.76%， 最小的为"其他"，相比上周降低 3%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为石油石化、有色金属、社会服务、传媒、通信，负向变化前 5 的一级 行业分别为机械设备、公用事业、食品饮料、环保、综合；申万二级行业中， 热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是油服工程、汽车服务、金属新材料、出版、 贸易Ⅱ。 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为科创次新股、稀土永磁、广东自贸区、染 料、噪声防治。 ❖ 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 61%、88%、 80%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、计算机、国防军工、医药生物；位于估值历史 20%以 下的有农林牧渔、公用事业、交通运输、家用电器、综合、非银 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Two new stocks will be available for subscription next week, including Guangxin Technology on June 17 and Xintong Electronics on June 20 [1][2]. Group 1: Guangxin Technology - Guangxin Technology, a leading domestic supplier of insulation materials, has an offering price of 10.00 CNY per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.59 [2]. - The company specializes in insulation fiber materials and products used in various sectors, including power transmission, railways, renewable energy, and military equipment [2][3]. - Guangxin Technology has established long-term partnerships with major transformer companies, enhancing its market reputation [3]. - Financial projections indicate that Guangxin Technology's revenue will grow from 304 million CNY in 2022 to 578 million CNY in 2024, with net profits increasing from 14.72 million CNY to 116 million CNY over the same period [3]. Group 2: Xintong Electronics - Xintong Electronics is an industrial IoT smart terminal and system solution provider, with a public offering of 39 million shares [4]. - The company targets specific industries such as electricity and telecommunications, providing products like smart inspection systems and mobile smart terminals [4]. - Financial forecasts show that Xintong Electronics' revenue will rise from 782 million CNY in 2022 to 1.005 billion CNY in 2024, with net profits increasing from 117 million CNY to 143 million CNY [4].

Group 1 - The overall market is experiencing fluctuations, with the index hovering around the 3400-point threshold, leading to a decline in many stocks, including newly listed ones [1] - Zhongce Rubber, a newly listed stock, has become a focal point after its share price fell below the issue price, marking it as the first "broken issue" case of the year [1][3] - The issue price of Zhongce Rubber was 46.50 yuan, and its latest share price is 45.31 yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.56% [3] Group 2 - On its first trading day, Zhongce Rubber opened at 57 yuan, which was 22.58% higher than the issue price, allowing investors who sold at that time to gain a profit of 5250 yuan [3] - Despite the initial positive performance, the overall market sentiment has been weak, leading many investors to hold onto their shares in hopes of a better performance [3][5] - The stock's trading volume on the first day was high, with a turnover rate of 61.51%, indicating significant trading activity despite some investors choosing to hold [5] Group 3 - Zhongce Rubber's total issuance was 87.45 million shares, raising a total of 4.066 billion yuan, which is lower than the initial target of 4.85 billion yuan [5] - The company's total market capitalization reached 40.666 billion yuan, positioning it as a blue-chip stock in the market [5][7] - As a leading player in China's tire industry, Zhongce Rubber has maintained its top position for sixteen consecutive years, suggesting that short-term stock price fluctuations may not reflect its long-term value [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of new stocks in the A-share market shows significant initial price surges, but many investors face losses shortly after due to high opening prices and subsequent declines [1][2][4]. Group 1: New Stock Performance - As of June 12, 2023, all 48 new stocks listed this year experienced price increases on their first day, with none facing a decline [2]. - Over 85% of new stocks doubled in price on their debut, with some surging over 600% [2]. - More than 70% of new stocks reached their peak price on the first day, indicating a pattern of high opening followed by declines [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The number of investors participating in online subscriptions for new stocks has significantly increased, with 36 new stocks attracting over 10 million accounts [2]. - Many fund managers express confusion over the sources of capital driving these initial surges, suggesting a lack of understanding of market dynamics [3]. - A substantial portion of investors who bought stocks on the first day experienced losses, with over 70% of them facing declines if they held onto their shares until June 12 [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of high opening prices followed by declines is attributed to speculative trading, which distorts the stock's reasonable valuation [4]. - Fund managers typically adopt a strategy of selling new stocks on the first day, reflecting a cautious approach to initial public offerings [4][5]. - The turnover rate for new stocks on their first day exceeds 60%, with nearly half surpassing 80%, indicating high trading activity [4]. Group 4: Institutional Participation - Public fund managers show a low level of participation in new stocks during their initial phase, often waiting for a period before conducting research [5]. - Less than 30% of the top ten shareholders in new stocks listed in the first quarter of 2023 were public institutions, highlighting a trend of individual investors dominating early investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of "prefer new stocks over old ones" has been validated in the A-share market, with the deep new stock index showing a cumulative increase of 6.18% year-to-date, outperforming several key indices [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of New Stocks - The deep new stock index has outperformed major indices such as the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, indicating a strong performance in the market [1][2]. - The investment strategy focusing on new stocks has become a core strategy in the A-share market, although not all new stocks possess long-term investment value [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Guqi Down Material - Guqi Down Material (001390.SZ) is positioned as a leading enterprise in the Chinese down material industry, with a strong competitive edge established across four dimensions [3][4]. - The company has significant technological barriers, including core patents in fluorine-free water-repellent technology and nano-level surface treatment processes, which enhance its product quality and market competitiveness [4]. - Guqi Down Material is actively involved in setting industry standards, which further solidifies its leading position in market share and technological advancement [5]. Group 3: Customer Structure and Market Position - The company has established strong relationships with leading brands such as Bosideng and Hai Lan Home, as well as military supply chains, ensuring stable demand and growth opportunities [6][7]. - Guqi Down Material's military orders are expected to yield higher profit margins, with projected sales in the military sector exceeding 50 million yuan in 2024 [7]. Group 4: Policy Alignment and Market Trends - The company benefits from long-term trends in consumption upgrades and green environmental policies, with significant investments in water recycling systems that align with national "dual carbon" strategies [8]. - Guqi Down Material's products are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-quality down products, with a notable potential for domestic substitution as the import dependency for high-end goose down remains at 58% [8]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Growth Potential - The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a projected annual revenue growth rate of 20.37% and a net profit growth rate of 31.67% from 2022 to 2024 [11]. - The PEG valuation model indicates that the company's stock price may be undervalued relative to its growth potential, suggesting a strong investment opportunity [12].

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Robotics is seeking to raise approximately $600 million through a placement of shares using a "old shares first" method, with a proposed share price range of HKD 6.87 to 7.08 [1] Group 1 - Horizon Robotics plans to issue shares to raise funds, indicating a strategic move to enhance its financial position [1] - The share price range for the placement is set between HKD 6.87 and 7.08, which reflects the company's valuation strategy [1]

新股預覽 ─ 海天味業（3288.HK） 食品行業 2025 年 06 月 11 日 背景 公司是有著悠久歷史傳承的內地調味品龍頭企業，致力於提供優質產 品以服務家常烹飪及用餐體驗的調味需求。公司的主要品類包括醬 油、蠔油、調味醬、特色調味品及其他。根據弗若斯特沙利文報告， 公司是內地調味品行業的領導者，按 2024 年的收入計，公司在內地調 味品市場排行首位。 概要 行業地位領先：2024 年內地調味品市場規模達人民幣 4,981 億元，而 公司的市場份額為 4.8%，是公司最大競爭對手的兩倍以上。按 2024 年的收入計，公司位居全球第五。2024 年全球調味品市場規模達人民 幣 21,438 億元，而公司的市場份額為 1.1%。按銷量計，公司已連續 28 年蟬聯內地最大調味品企業。公司的醬油、蠔油產品銷量多年位居 內地調味品市場第一，調味醬、食醋及料酒亦位居內地市場前列。 全面的品類佈局：「海天」是內地消費行業的熱門品牌。根據凱度《2024 年品牌足跡報告》，在內地，公司有 80%以上的家庭滲透率，位居內 地消費者首選品牌第四、調味品品牌第一。公司擁有全面的品類佈 局，包括醬油、蠔油、調味醬、食醋、料酒 ...

股票简称：海阳科技 股票代码：603382 海阳科技股份有限公司 上市公告书 海阳科技股份有限公司 Haiyang Technology Co., Ltd. （住所：泰州市海阳西路 122 号） 首次公开发行股票主板上市公告书 保荐人（主承销商） （北京市西城区金融大街 5 号新盛大厦 B 座 12、15 层） 二〇二五年六月十一日 特别提示 海阳科技股份有限公司（以下简称"海阳科技"、"发行人"、"本公司"或"公司"） 股票将于 2025 年 6 月 12 日在上海证券交易所主板上市。 本公司提醒投资者应充分了解股票市场风险及本公司披露的风险因素，在新 股上市初期切忌盲目跟风"炒新"，应当审慎决策、理性投资。 本上市公告书中若出现总数与各分项数值之和尾数不等的情况，均为四舍五 入尾差所致。 1 海阳科技股份有限公司 上市公告书 第一节 重要声明与提示 一、重要声明 本公司及全体董事、监事和高级管理人员保证上市公告书所披露信息的真实、 准确、完整，承诺上市公告书不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并依 法承担法律责任。 上海证券交易所、有关政府机关对本公司股票上市及有关事项的意见，均不 表明对本公司的任何 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Haiyang Technology Co., Ltd. is set to list its shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on June 12, 2025, following its initial public offering (IPO) of 45.3129 million shares at a price of 11.50 yuan per share, which corresponds to a diluted static price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.69 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 23.65 times [1][3][5]. Group 1: Listing Overview - Stock Name: Haiyang Technology [2] - Stock Code: 603382 [2] - Total Shares Post-IPO: 181.251368 million shares [2] - New Shares Issued: 45.3129 million shares, all of which are new shares with no existing shares being transferred [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - IPO Price: 11.50 yuan per share [3] - Corresponding P/E Ratios: - 9.43 times (before non-recurring gains/losses) [3] - 9.52 times (after non-recurring gains/losses) [3] - 12.57 times (before non-recurring gains/losses, post-IPO) [3] - 12.69 times (after non-recurring gains/losses, post-IPO) [3] - Industry Average P/E Ratio: 23.65 times [4][5] - Comparable Company Average P/E Ratio: 13.82 times [5]. Group 3: Market Context - The company operates in the "Chemical Raw Materials and Chemical Products Manufacturing" industry [4]. - The limited number of circulating shares post-IPO (35.52086 million shares, 19.60% of total shares) may pose liquidity risks [2].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Southwest Jiaotong University Railway Development Co., Ltd. (stock code: 920027, referred to as "Jiaoda Tifa") was listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on June 10, with a significant first-day performance, reflecting strong market interest and a favorable environment for new listings [1][4]. Company Performance - Jiaoda Tifa's first-day opening price was 33.90 yuan, representing a 284.79% increase, and it closed at 31.90 yuan, a 262.09% increase, with a total trading volume of 621 million yuan and a turnover rate of 72.03% [1]. - The company issued 19.09 million shares at an issue price of 8.81 yuan per share, raising 168 million yuan for new projects [1]. - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio (PE) reached approximately 45 times, exceeding the industry average of around 35 times [2]. Financial Stability - From 2022 to 2024, Jiaoda Tifa's revenue is projected to grow from 235 million yuan to 335 million yuan, with net profit increasing from approximately 33.80 million yuan to 53.39 million yuan [3]. - The company's gross profit margins are expected to remain stable at around 45% to 46%, with net profit margins between 14% and 17% during the same period [3]. - Jiaoda Tifa has established a direct sales model and a production model based on sales, primarily serving major clients such as China Railway Group and China Railway Construction [3]. Market Environment - The high subscription amount of 516.77 billion yuan and the low winning rate of 0.03% during the subscription phase indicate strong market interest in Jiaoda Tifa [4]. - The Beijing Stock Exchange is expected to see an increase in the quality of new listings and fundraising amounts, which may enhance the performance of newly listed stocks [5]. - The average net profit of companies accepted for listing in 2024 is projected to be around 10.4 million yuan, with an average fundraising amount close to 40 million yuan [4].