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生猪:供应后置,中枢继续下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is postponed, and the price center continues to move down [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11,280 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 10,800 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong is 11,460 yuan/ton, with year - on - year increases of 150 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,165 yuan/ton, 11,905 yuan/ton, and 11,540 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 235 yuan/ton, 290 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig futures contract 2511 is 33,489 lots, a decrease of 9,492 lots from the previous day, with an open interest of 41,232 lots, a decrease of 3,573 lots. The trading volume of contract 2601 is 80,026 lots, an increase of 28,549 lots, with an open interest of 105,012 lots, an increase of 14,112 lots. The trading volume of contract 2603 is 16,872 lots, an increase of 951 lots, with an open interest of 77,419 lots, an increase of 1,948 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Shennong's Yunnan and Guangxi warehouses registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view [3]. 3.4 Futures Research - **Basis**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 55 yuan/ton, 365 yuan/ton, and - 165 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 115 yuan/ton, 385 yuan/ton, and - 625 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of live pig futures contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are 440 yuan/ton and - 260 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 275 yuan/ton and - 740 yuan/ton [4].
棕榈油:提税支持B50,关注棕油下方支撑:区间运行,关注中美经贸关系
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:17
Report Title - Palm Oil: Tax Increase Supports B50, Focus on Downward Support for Palm Oil; Soybean Oil: Range-Bound, Monitor China-US Economic and Trade Relations [1] Report Date - October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil is supported by tax increase for B50, and attention should be paid to its downward support; soybean oil is expected to trade within a range, and the China-US economic and trade relations should be monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented, along with trading volume and open interest changes [1] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and Malaysian palm oil are provided, as well as spot basis data [1] - **Spread Data**: Futures spreads between different oil varieties and spreads within the same variety are given, including changes compared to previous trading days [1] Macro and Industry News - From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month-on-month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month-on-month, and production increased by 6.86% month-on-month, according to SPPOMA data [2] - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.5% due to strong domestic demand offsetting trade concerns [3] - China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [4] - Speculative funds net bought 3500 lots of soybeans on Thursday, compared to 4000 lots on Wednesday [4] - The NOPA's September soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, a 4.24% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase year-on-year, setting the fourth-highest monthly record and the highest for the same period in history [4] - The US urged South Korea to increase soybean imports [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20251016
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:27
Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated October 16, 2025, provided by Guangqi Research [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily monitoring data on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads, along with relevant policy adjustments to the iron ore futures contract delivery rules [3][5][10] Summary by Directory Futures Contracts and Spreads - **Contract Prices**: I05 closed at 754.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan; I01 closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The I05 - I09 spread was 21.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was -43.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3] Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of BRBF increased by 2 yuan to 60 yuan/ton, and the basis of super special powder increased by 3 yuan to 148 yuan/ton [5] - **Basis Policy Adjustments**: Starting from December 2nd, the main iron ore contract is I2205. The delivery rules have been adjusted, including adding 4 deliverable varieties, adjusting brand premiums and discounts, and modifying substitute quality differences and quality premiums and discounts [10] Variety Spreads - **Spread Data**: The PB block - PB powder spread was 131.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; the PB powder - super special powder spread was 72.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan [12] - **Spread Charts**: The report provides multiple spread charts to visually display the changes in spreads over time [13][17]
《金融》日报-20251013
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 03:24
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1-year percentiles, and all-time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads on October 13, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **IF Spreads**: The IF spot-futures spread was -4.35, up 30.70% from the previous day, with a 1-year percentile of 18.00%. Different inter - delivery spreads also showed various changes and percentiles [1]. - **IH Spreads**: Information on IH spreads including spot - futures and inter - delivery spreads was provided, such as the spot - futures spread being 0.95, down 4.46 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 59.40% [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC spot - futures spread was 0.90, down 132.22 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.30%. Inter - delivery spreads had their own values, changes, and percentiles [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM spot - futures spread was -193.42, up 5.03 from the previous day. Its inter - delivery spreads also had corresponding data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., were presented with their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on October 13, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis was 1.3657, up 0.0017 from the previous day, with a percentile of 15.10%. TF, T, and TL bases also had their respective values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL futures contracts were reported, such as the TS current - quarter to next - quarter spread being 0.0180, down 0.0240 from the previous day, with a percentile of 23.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., were presented with their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report provides the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on October 13, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 901.56, down 12.76 (-1.40%) from the previous day. The AG2512 contract closed at 11082, down 87 (-0.78%) [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 4035.50, up 44.40 (1.11%) from the previous day. The COMEX silver main contract closed at 47.52, down 0.14 (-0.29%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 4017.85, up 41.90 (1.05%) from the previous day. London silver was at 50.13, up 0.92 (1.87%) [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - SHFE gold main contract basis was -3.82, down 0.88 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 21.20%. The silver TD - SHFE silver main contract basis was -23, down 30 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 44.50% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 84.93, up 1.18 (1.41%) from the previous day. The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 81.35, down 0.51 (-0.62%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05, down 0.09 (-2.2%) from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.82, down 0.58 (-0.59%) [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The SHFE gold inventory was 70728, unchanged from the previous day. The SHFE silver inventory was 1169061 kg, down 17785 kg (-1.50%) [4]. Group 4: Shanghai Export Container Freight Index Report Core View The report presents spot freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the Shanghai export container shipping industry on October 13, 2025 [8]. Summary by Category - **Spot Freight Rates**: SCFI (Europe) was 1068 dollars/TEU, up 97.0 (9.99%) from the previous day. SCFI (US West) was 1468 dollars/FEU, up 8.0 (0.55%) [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract was 1338.0, down 68.0 (-4.84%) from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was -202.1, down 45.1 (28.72%) [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply was 3319.85 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai was 42.77%, up 24.46 percentage points (133.59%) from the previous month [8]. Group 5: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report gives the spot quotes and the change of the SCFI composite index in the container shipping industry on October 13, 2025 [11]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: The SCFI composite index was 1114.52 points, up 45.9 (4.12%) from the previous day [11].
生猪:现货底部未现,近月升水偏大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:42
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Report's Core View - The spot bottom of live pigs has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [1] - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live pig spot price is 11,330 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; and Guangdong's is 12,060 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,595 yuan/ton (down 700 yuan), 12,165 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan), and 11,970 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 50,927 lots (down 7,793 lots) and the open interest is 58,336 lots (down 17,117 lots); for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 40,716 lots (up 3,662 lots) and the open interest is 84,790 lots (up 8,369 lots); for the 2603 contract, the trading volume is 16,259 lots (up 1,932 lots) and the open interest is 57,549 lots (up 4,944 lots) [2] - **Price Differences**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 265 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan), - 835 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan), and - 640 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan) respectively; the 11 - 1 spread is - 570 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread is 195 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan) [2]
广发期货全品种价差日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:18
Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for various futures contracts on September 30, 2025, covering black, non - ferrous, agricultural, energy chemical, and financial futures [1][2][3] Summary by Category Black Series - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, and historical quantile is 90% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, and historical quantile is 49.30% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is - 61, basis rate is - 1.85%, and historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, and historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is - 34, basis rate is - 2.04%, and historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2511)**: Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is - 160, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is - 40, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.70%, and historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is - 25, basis rate is - 1.0%, and historical quantile is 21.80% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is - 1010, basis rate is - 0.37%, and historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is 100, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, and historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is - 370, basis rate is - 0.90%, and historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.76%, and historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Agricultural Series - **Soybean Meal (MSe01)**: Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is - 43, basis rate is - 1.47%, and historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, and historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9150, basis is - 84, basis rate is - 0.92%, and historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, and historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ole01)**: Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, and historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, and historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, and historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: Futures price is 12295, spot price is 12550, basis is 255, basis rate is 2.07%, and historical quantile is 48.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD251)**: Futures price is 3016, spot price is 3400, basis is 384, basis rate is 12.73%, and historical quantile is 60.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, and historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.39%, and historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, and historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is - 1415, basis rate is - 14.86%, and historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is - 16.1, basis rate is - 0.24%, and historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, and historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is - 71, basis rate is - 1.68%, and historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is - 99, basis rate is - 1.56%, and historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB251)**: Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is - 17, basis rate is - 0.25%, and historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2260.9, basis is - 10.9, basis rate is - 0.48%, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7184.9, basis is - 9.9, basis rate is - 0.14%, and historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is 118, basis rate is 1.71%, and historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is - 166, basis rate is - 3.39%, and historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is - 15, basis rate is - 0.60%, and historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Futures price is 4293, spot price is 4548, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, and historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, and historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Futures price is 11340, spot price is 11500, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, and historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is 100, basis rate is 8.86%, and historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is 90, basis rate is 7.53%, and historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is - 770, basis rate is - 5.04%, and historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Series - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2512.CFF**: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is - 15.5, basis rate is - 0.34%, and historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - **IH2512.CHE**: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is - 118.4, basis rate is - 1.61%, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is - 160.4, basis rate is - 2.14%, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is - 0.01, basis rate is - 0.01%, and historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is - 0.01, basis rate is - 0.01%, and historical quantile is 25.40% [5] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, and historical quantile is 42.40% [5] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, and historical quantile is 51.20% [5]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports Summary by Related Categories 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IM Spread Data**: IM's current - spot spread is -160.43, up 47.96 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 35.00% and an all - time quantile of 7.00%. Various IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1] - **Other Index Spreads**: Spreads of IF, IH, IC, etc., including current - spot spreads and inter - period spreads, have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, IC's far - month to quarterly - month spread is -173.40, up 0.60 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 2.00% [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, the CSI 500/SSE 50 ratio is 1.5910, down 0.0004 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 96.70% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis Data**: TS basis is 1.4369, down 0.0131 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 18.30%. TF basis is 1.4331, down 0.0116 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 35.70%. T basis is 1.5973, up 0.2089 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 55.00% [5] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, TS's current - quarter to next - quarter spread is 0.0860, with no change from the previous day, and an all - time quantile of 43.30% [5] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, TS - TF is -3.1590, up 0.0390 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 14.40% [5] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 866.52 on September 29, up 10.46 from September 26, a 1.22% increase. AG2512 contract closed at 10939, up 307 from September 26, a 2.89% increase. Foreign COMEX gold and silver also showed price increases [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, and domestic gold and silver spot prices all increased. For example, London gold rose from 3758.78 on September 26 to 3832.94 on September 29, a 1.97% increase [7] - **Basis and Other Data**: Basis data such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., have their values, changes, and quantiles. Inventory and position data of precious metals also showed certain changes [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates of MAERSK, CMA CGM, etc., showed different changes. For example, MAERSK's freight rate increased from 1613 on September 29 to 1645 on September 30, a 1.98% increase [8] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US - West route), and other indexes showed declines. For example, SCFIS (European route) decreased from 1254.92 on September 22 to 1120.49 on September 29, a 10.71% decrease [8] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., all decreased. The basis of the main contract decreased from -228.6 to -332.2, a 45.34% change [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. Shanghai's port on - time rate decreased by 43.80%, while port calls increased by 10.97%. Overseas economic indicators such as the Eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI showed slight increases [8]
《金融》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:05
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads on September 29, 2025, including price spreads between different contract months and across different varieties [1]. - **Summary by Category**: - **IF Spreads**: The current - spot spread is 6.24, with a 30.30% historical 1 - year quantile and 2.60% all - time quantile. Different inter - period spreads also show specific values and quantiles, such as the next month - current month spread being - 10.80 [1]. - **IH Spreads**: The current - spot spread is - 160.91, and various inter - period spreads have their own values and quantiles, e.g., the next month - current month spread is - 66.80 [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The current - spot spread is - 208.39, and inter - period spreads like the next month - current month are presented with corresponding values and quantiles [1]. - **IM Spreads**: Similar to the above, it shows current - spot and inter - period spreads with specific values and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of different types of spreads for treasury bond futures on September 29, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [2]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.4131, TF basis is 1.3377, T basis is 1.2219, and TL basis is 1.2939, each with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For different contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL, spreads between the current quarter, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts are given with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Core View**: Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, and other related indicators on September 29, 2025, including changes and historical quantiles [4]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 yuan/gram on September 25, with a 0.16% increase from August 26. The AG2512 contract closed at 10411 yuan/kilogram, up 2.12% [4]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold and silver futures show increases, with COMEX gold closing at 3789.80 and COMEX silver at 46.37 dollars/ounce on September 26 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold and silver also increased, with London gold at 3758.78 and London silver at 46.03 dollars/ounce on September 26 [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Differences like gold TD - Shanghai gold and ratios such as COMEX gold/silver are presented, along with changes in yields, exchange rates, inventories, and ETF holdings [4]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Core View**: Analyzes the spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on September 29, 2025 [5]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Spot Quotes**: Shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe for different companies like MAERSK, CMA, etc., show different changes, with CMA having a 3.14% increase [5]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Indexes such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFI composite index decreased, with SCFIS (European route) down 12.87% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 and EC2510 (main contract) show price changes, and the basis of the main contract increased by 443.46% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, while port - related indicators and overseas economic indicators showed various changes, such as the Shanghai port on - time rate decreasing by 43.80% [5].
全品种价差日报-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest price and basis data of various futures and spot commodities, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, as well as stock index futures and bond futures, to provide a reference for market participants [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The spot price is 5758, the futures price is 5786, the basis is - 28, and the basis rate is 0.54%. The historical quantile is 55.30% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 5970, the futures price is 2038, the basis is 3932, and the basis rate is 31.20% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3167, the futures price is 3290, the basis is - 123, and the basis rate is 3.88%. The historical quantile is 56.60% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3358, the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 42, and the basis rate is 1.25%. The historical quantile is 36.50% [1]. - **Iron Ore (12601)**: The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port is 806, the futures price is 853, the basis is - 47, and the basis rate is - 5.51%. The historical quantile is 40.40% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1646, the futures price is 1760, the basis is - 114, and the basis rate is - 6.49%. The historical quantile is 8.35% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1235, the futures price is 1185, the basis is 50, and the basis rate is 4.22%. The historical quantile is 15.00% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: The SMM electrolytic copper average price is 82505, the futures price is 82710, the basis is - 205, and the basis rate is - 0.25%. The historical quantile is 25.41% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20770, the futures price is 20765, the basis is 5, and the basis rate is 0.02%. The historical quantile is 59.16% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM heavy - alumina modulus average price is 3001, the futures price is 2942, the basis is 59, and the basis rate is 2.00%. The historical quantile is 42.95% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 21800, the futures price is 22045, the basis is - 245, and the basis rate is - 1.11%. The historical quantile is 7.08% [1]. - **Tin (SN2511)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 273700, the futures price is 273710, the basis is - 10, and the basis rate is 0.00%. The historical quantile is 47.70% [1]. - **Nickel (NISEJI)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 123225, the futures price is 122990, the basis is 235, and the basis rate is 0.19%. The historical quantile is 70.20% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: The price of 304/2B:2*1240*C at Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13370, the futures price is 12930, the basis is 440, and the basis rate is 3.40%. The historical quantile is 84.54% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73750, the futures price is 74040, the basis is - 290, and the basis rate is - 0.39%. The historical quantile is 51.10% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The SMM industrial silicon average price is 9500, the futures price is 9055, the basis is 445, and the basis rate is 4.91%. The historical quantile is 32.79% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) price is 854.7, the futures price is 852.0, the basis is 2.7, and the basis rate is 0.32%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) price is 10411.0, the futures price is 10353.0, the basis is 58.0, and the basis rate is 0.56%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The ex - factory price of ordinary soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2900, the futures price is 2967.0, the basis is - 67.0, and the basis rate is - 2.26%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8350, the futures price is 8192.0, the basis is 158.0, and the basis rate is 1.93%. The historical quantile is 31.50% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9222.0, the futures price is 9150, the basis is 72.0, and the basis rate is 0.79%. The historical quantile is 6.40% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2444.0, the futures price is 2530, the basis is - 86.0, and the basis rate is - 3.40%. The historical quantile is 62.30% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 10142.0, the futures price is 10330, the basis is - 188.0, and the basis rate is - 1.82%. The historical quantile is 67.70% [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310, the futures price is 2165.0, the basis is 145.0, and the basis rate is 6.70%. The historical quantile is 96.00% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2600, the futures price is 2474.0, the basis is 126.0, and the basis rate is 5.09%. The historical quantile is 63.40% [1]. - **Live Hogs (H251)**: The ex - factory price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan is 12550, the futures price is 12685.0, the basis is - 135.0, and the basis rate is - 1.06%. The historical quantile is 38.50% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2511)**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 414.0, the futures price is 3490, the basis is 65.0, and the basis rate is 1.86%. The historical quantile is 13.46% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang is 15030, the futures price is 13530.0, the basis is 1500.0, and the basis rate is 11.09%. The historical quantile is 94.00% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5890, the futures price is 5485.0, the basis is 405.0, and the basis rate is 7.38%. The historical quantile is 73.30% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The theoretical delivery price of apples is 8600, the futures price is 8446.0, the basis is 154.0, and the basis rate is 1.82%. The historical quantile is 27.40% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 10970.0, the futures price is 9500, the basis is 1470.0, and the basis rate is 15.42%. The historical quantile is 32.50% [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: The spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at the main port in China, converted to RMB, is 6594.0, the futures price is 6686.8, the basis is - 92.8, and the basis rate is - 1.41%. The historical quantile is 50.90% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China is 4530.0, the futures price is 4604.0, the basis is - 74.0, and the basis rate is - 1.61%. The historical quantile is 24.80% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol in East China is 4345.0, the futures price is 4257.0, the basis is 88.0, and the basis rate is 2.07%. The historical quantile is 88.60% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market is 6284.0, the futures price is 6425.0, the basis is - 141.0, and the basis rate is - 2.24%. The historical quantile is 76.70% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2511)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 7030.0, the futures price is 6992.0, the basis is 38.0, and the basis rate is 0.54%. The historical quantile is 35.10% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2361.0, the futures price is 2250.0, the basis is 111.0, and the basis rate is 4.70%. The historical quantile is 10.80% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong is 1640.0, the futures price is 1661.0, the basis is - 21.0, and the basis rate is - 1.28%. The historical quantile is 8.20% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong is 7190.0, the futures price is 7169.0, the basis is 21.0, and the basis rate is 0.29%. The historical quantile is 28.30% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6860.0, the futures price is 6914.0, the basis is - 54.0, and the basis rate is - 0.79%. The historical quantile is 11.90% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4780.0, the futures price is 4950.0, the basis is - 170.0, and the basis rate is - 3.43%. The historical quantile is 34.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong, converted to 100%, is 2641.0, the futures price is 2500.0, the basis is 141.0, and the basis rate is 5.64%. The historical quantile is 29.40% [1]. - **LPG (PG2511)**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4548.0, the futures price is 4360.0, the basis is 188.0, and the basis rate is 4.31%. The historical quantile is 42.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong is 3520.0, the futures price is 3421.0, the basis is 99.0, and the basis rate is 2.81%. The historical quantile is 71.80% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: The Chinese distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in North China is 11445.0, the futures price is 11700.0, the basis is - 255.0, and the basis rate is - 2.23%. The historical quantile is 56.80% [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The market price of 5mm large - plate float glass in Shahe is 1128.0, the futures price is 1270.0, the basis is - 142.0, and the basis rate is - 11.18%. The historical quantile is 16.94% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The market price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe is 1225.0, the futures price is 1315.0, the basis is - 90.0, and the basis rate is - 6.86%. The historical quantile is 10.04% [1
《金融》日报-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data and changes in various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, container shipping, etc., which can help investors understand the market trends and price movements of these products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF**: The current - spot spread is 4.78, with a 23.30% change from the previous day and a 12.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Various inter - term spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - **IH**: The current - spot spread is 0.86, with a 0.57 change from the previous day and a 59.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Different inter - term spreads have their own values and quantiles [1]. - **IC**: The current - spot spread is 1.60%, with a 0.10% change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads vary [1]. - **IM**: The current - spot spread is - 224.71, with a 6.31 change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads are also provided [1]. - **Cross - variety ratios**: Such as CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., show different values and changes [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **TS**: The basis is 0.0177, with a 0.0235 change from the previous day and a 12.80% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are also presented [2]. - **TF**: The basis is 1.1992, with a 0.1310 change from the previous day and a 41.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are given [2]. - **T**: The basis is - 0.1123, with a 0.5994 change from the previous day and a 2.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are provided [2]. - **TL**: The basis is 0.0860, with a 0.0140 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are included [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 on September 25, down 0.61% from the previous day; the AG2512 contract closed at 10411, up 0.13% [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 3780.50 on September 25, up 0.32% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 45.47, up 3.07% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3748.41 on September 25, up 0.34% from the previous day; London silver was at 45.13, up 2.83% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - SHFE gold主力 was - 2.73, with a 1.00 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical 1 - year quantile; silver TD - SHFE silver主力 was - 58, with a - 10 change from the previous day and a 2.40% historical 1 - year quantile [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 83.14, down 2.67% from the previous day; SHFE gold/silver was 82.10, down 0.75% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, up 0.5% from the previous day; the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.61% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 65634 kg on September 25, up 8.41% from the previous day; SHFE silver inventory was 1156855 kg, down 0.43% [3]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: On September 26, MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate was 1622 USD/FEU, down 2.47% from the previous day; CMA CGM's was 1904, up 4.96% [4]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 22 was 1254.92, down 12.87% from September 15; the SCFI comprehensive index on September 19 was 1198.21, down 14.30% from September 12 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract on September 25 was 1696.2, up 6.81% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 227.4, with a 4393.68% change from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on September 26 was 3310.22 TEU, with no change from the previous day; the Shanghai port on - time rate in August was 18.31%, down 43.80% from July [4].