假设伊以冲突进一步升级，面对可能出现的高油价，各方寄希望于石油输出国组织欧佩克可以临时填补供给缺口，以避免全球经济再受拖累。但如果伊朗封 锁霍尔木兹海峡，欧佩克可能也无法完全弥补短期缺口。 市场分析认为，虽然以色列和伊朗的冲突（下称"伊以冲突"）尚未结束，但伊朗主要的石油生产和出口设施尚未受到影响，且暂未作出对霍尔木兹海峡进行 封锁的任何尝试，使得交易员减少了对伊以冲突将演变为更广泛地区战争的押注。 不过，包括摩根大通和荷兰国际集团（ING）在内的多家机构依然警告，伊朗一旦封锁霍尔木兹海峡，国际油价最高将突破每桶120美元。 目前多国已开展撤侨行动，假设伊以冲突进一步升级，面对可能出现的高油价，各方寄希望于石油输出国组织欧佩克可以临时填补供给缺口，以避免全球经 济再受拖累。但如果伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，欧佩克可能也无法完全弥补短期缺口。 1/5石油绕不开霍尔木兹海峡 受以色列突袭伊朗影响，国际原油期货在上周五开始的两个交易日内，一度上涨超15%，随后涨幅有所收窄，截至17日发稿，WTI原油主连价格在每桶70美 元附近震荡。 （6月16日，在以色列布内布拉克，应急和救援人员在一处导弹袭击现场开展工作。图片来源：新 ...

凯投宏观：日本央行维持利率不变，计划逐步减少国债购买 三菱日联银行：日本央行或于年底前加息以支撑日元 【机构分析】 凯投宏观分析师认为，日本央行在6月议息会议上决定维持政策利率在0.5%不变，同时宣布从2026年4 月开始减少购买日本国债；预计到2027年3月，日本央行持有的未偿日本国债份额将从当前的50%下降 至42%。日本央行对经济状况的评估和展望措辞与前一个月（即4月份）相比几乎没有变化；市场需要 等待日本央行行长植田和男举行的新闻发布会以获取更多关于利率前景的信息。 野村证券预计，新西兰联储计划于7月9日下调利率25个基点。若7月的降息举措得以实施，预计新西兰 联储将采取较为鹰派的政策沟通策略；此举旨在传递一个明确的信号，即在降息之后，新西兰联储将采 取观望态度，不会急于进一步放宽货币政策。 德国中央合作银行分析师认为，美联储将在本周的会议上维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不 变；美联储将继续采取数据依赖性策略，密切关注经济指标以指导未来的货币政策走向。 牛津经济研究院：油价持续上涨或促使美联储采取更鸽派立场 三菱日联银行分析师表示，日本央行有可能在年底前加息，这一举动将有助于支撑日元 ...

布油、美油双双转涨。 ...

Group 1 - The expectation of rising oil prices is leading to a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers regarding further interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased by 2 to 6 basis points across various maturities, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 3.97% as traders reduce bets on Fed easing [1] - The bond market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with most expecting rates to remain unchanged, but the market is focused on the quarterly economic and interest rate forecast report [1] Group 2 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with historical data suggesting that such sell-off pressures may have lasting effects [2] - Initial spikes in oil prices due to the conflict have receded, with WTI crude oil prices dropping by as much as 4.9% before settling at a 2.3% decline [2] - Concerns over market volatility are rising, with implications for both risk assets and interest rate assets as implied volatility increases [2] Group 3 - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury auction showed stronger-than-expected demand, while the 20-year auction was relatively lackluster, with a yield of 4.942% aligning with expectations [3] - The pressure on the U.S. Treasury yield curve may increase due to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to consider higher military spending [3] - The recent auction alleviated some risks associated with holding long-term assets, but it remains uncertain whether this will lead to significant market movements ahead of the Fed's policy announcement [3]

荷兰国际：美元上行潜力有限 金十数据6月16日讯，荷兰国际分析师Francesco Pesole表示，美联储可能在周三会议上对降息持谨慎态 度，但这可能不会对美元提供太多支撑。他在一份报告中表示，美联储可能会利用以色列-伊朗冲突导 致的油价上涨作为抵制特朗普降息呼吁的理由。然而，在以色列和伊朗的袭击开始后，美元未能维持最 初的上涨势头，这是市场不信任美元的一个症状。他说，即使是油价上涨等利好美元的事件，加上地缘 政治紧张局势，也无法阻止卖空者在美元试图复苏时做空美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel continues to support upward pressure on oil prices, despite a relatively calm market reaction at the beginning of the week [1] Oil Market Analysis - Analysts from Swissquote Bank indicate that both WTI and Brent crude oil opened higher but quickly retraced some gains [1] - Natural gas prices initially surged at the opening but also experienced a decline, similar to gold prices which retraced some of their earlier gains [1] - Some analysts believe that the conflict may ultimately suppress global economic growth, thereby limiting the potential for oil price increases [1] - Conversely, others argue that high oil prices could incentivize shale oil producers to increase output [1] Supply Risk Factors - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for one-third of global oil flow, faces risks of supply disruptions, suggesting that the balance of risks still leans towards rising oil prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of conflicts related to nuclear issues between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent oil futures increasing by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2025 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, have contributed to market volatility and concerns over oil supply [6]. - The report highlights that while there are short-term price increases due to geopolitical risks, there are long-term concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report notes that the geopolitical situation has led to a rise in oil prices, with specific data indicating a 13.81% increase in WTI and a 12.80% increase in Brent prices during the specified period [6]. - The U.S. has seen a notable increase in gasoline and jet fuel demand as the summer travel season approaches, despite a current oversupply in gasoline and distillate inventories [6]. - OPEC's production increase in May was below expectations, alleviating some concerns about oversupply in the short term [6]. Fluorochemical - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to boost demand for air conditioning, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 29.3% and 22.8% year-on-year in June and July 2025, respectively [6]. - Prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R134a remain high due to strong demand and supply constraints [6]. - The report suggests that the supply of second-generation refrigerants will continue to decrease, while the production of third-generation refrigerants is limited, supporting price stability [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting a potential rebound in the industry index [7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in semiconductor materials as the market shows signs of recovery [7].

能源情报集团记者Amena Bakr：如果（能不能成还是个大问号）伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡的这种情况真 的发生，油价将飙升至三位数。 ...

Group 1 - The Israeli airstrikes on Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, leading to a significant increase in international oil prices [2][3] - On June 13, Brent crude oil surged over 13% to $78.5, while WTI crude rose by 14% to $77.62, indicating a volatile market response to geopolitical tensions [2] - Iran's oil production is projected to reach 200 million tons in 2024, accounting for 4% of global oil output, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical route for approximately 30% of global seaborne oil trade [2][3] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that a strong blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could significantly impact global oil supply, with Morgan Stanley estimating a potential reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day in Iranian oil exports [3] - Current oil prices are around $70, which is approximately $4 higher than the estimated fair value of $66, indicating that the market has priced in a 7% probability of worst-case scenarios [3] - The geopolitical situation has created a favorable environment for oil and gas exploration and production companies, as well as oilfield service providers, potentially leading to structural investment opportunities [3]

截至06月13日13:25，油气ETF(159697.SZ)上涨2.70%，其关联指数国证油气(399439.SZ)上涨2.47%；主 要成分股中，中国海油上涨2.76%，招商轮船上7.10%，中国石油上涨1.24%，中远海能上涨7.55%，洲 际油气上涨9.95%。 消息面上，当地时间6月13日以色列空军对伊朗境内数十个与核计划及其他军事设施相关的目标发动空 袭，引发地缘政治紧张局势升级，市场避险情绪显著升温，国际油价应声大涨，布伦特原油盘中一度涨 超13%，WTI原油期货同步攀升逾13%至逾4个月新高，带动油气产业链相关资产走强。 券商研究方面，信达指出看好三季度油价，抓住做多机会： 三、油服公司存在错杀：一方面油公司的资本开支并未出现因二季度油价回落而大幅下调情况；另一方 面油服相关费率并未出现明显回调；三是油服公司绝大部分钻井船、海工装备等已有中长期合同，合同 期内费率不变。中海油服、海油工程业绩增长确定性极高。 关联产品： 油气ETF（159697），联接基金（A类 019827，C类 019828，I类 022861） 关联个股： 中国石油（601857）、中国石化（600028）、中国海油（60 ...