燃料油市场分析

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大越期货燃料油早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains near the current level. The spot premium of marine fuel oil has risen due to increased buying interest in the spot market. The commercial fuel oil inventory in Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, has dropped to a seven - week low, and imports have declined for the second consecutive week. Crude oil price increases and the easing of Sino - US trade relations are short - term positives for crude - related prices, but there are still significant obstacles in the future, and preparations should be made for the short - term profit - taking. The expected operating ranges are 3010 - 3050 for FU2507 and 3520 - 3560 for LU2506 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, spot premium of marine fuel oil rises, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory drops to a seven - week low with declining imports [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 80 yuan/ton at 412.9 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 185 yuan/ton at 499.5 dollars/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 7 was 2412.9 million barrels, an increase of 40 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: Prices are near the 20 - day line, which is flat [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are long and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are short and increasing [3]. - **Expectations**: Crude oil price increases and Sino - US trade relation easing are short - term positives, but long - term negotiation expectations remain. FU2507 is expected to operate in the 3010 - 3050 range, and LU2506 in the 3520 - 3560 range [3]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: OPEC+ additional production cuts continue (execution to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4]. - **Short Factors**: The optimism of demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The resonance between the uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 2923 to 2961, a rise of 38 (1.30%); the price of the LU main contract futures increased from 3464 to 3479, a rise of 15 (0.43%). The FU basis increased from 53 to 80, a rise of 27 (51.63%); the LU basis decreased from 190 to 185, a decline of 4 (- 2.28%) [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 402.43 to 412.90, a rise of 10.47 (2.60%); low - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 493.50 to 499.50, a rise of 6.00 (1.22%); Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 380.39 to 390.86, a rise of 10.47 (2.75%); Singapore diesel price increased from 559.34 to 572.32, a rise of 12.98 (2.32%) [6]. 3.4 Spread Data - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 7 was 2412.9 million barrels, an increase of 40 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory data from February 26 to May 7 shows fluctuations [8].
大越期货燃料油早报-20250512
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 02:25
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油: 1、基本面:亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近,由于现货市场买兴升温,船用燃料油现货 溢价上涨,同时,全球最大加油枢纽新加坡的商业燃料油库存降至七周低点,进口量连续第二周下降; 中性 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油为402.43美元/吨,基差为53元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为493.5美元/吨,基 差为190元/吨,现货升水期货;偏多 3、库存:新加坡燃料油5月7日当周库存为2412.9万桶,增加40万桶;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线附近运行,20日线偏平;中性 5、主力持仓:高硫主力持仓多单,多增,偏多; ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250508
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the fuel oil market, indicating that due to increased supply of arbitrage goods and inflow of blending components, the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore may face greater pressure in the coming weeks. With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply of arbitrage goods and blending components may pressure the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore. In April, the total open interest of the near - month contract for high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 11.32% month - on - month to 9.37 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $51/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is $165/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of April 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Market Trend**: Prices are below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions have shifted from short to long, and low - sulfur main positions have shifted from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Market Driver**: The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2865, up 35 (1.24%) from the previous value; the current price of the LU main contract is 3371, up 62 (1.87%) from the previous value [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is $488/ton, up $7 (1.46%) from the previous value; the current price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is $495/ton, up $5 (1.02%) from the previous value. The current price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $395.71/ton, up $9.32 (2.41%) from the previous value; the current price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is $482.5/ton, up $10 (2.12%) from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of April 23, the inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged from the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [3][7].
大越期货燃料油早报-20250430
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:17
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-30燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油: 1、基本面:亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱,不过,贸易人士预计由于未来几周进入新加坡的套利船货 减少,市场将获得短期支撑;作为全球最大船加油枢纽,新加坡近期高硫燃料油库存持续攀升,因中东 地区多批船货到港;中性 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油为423.47美元/吨,基差为146元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为497.5美元/吨,基 差为183元/吨,现货升水期货;偏多 3、库存:新加坡燃料油4月23日当周库存为2598.9万桶,不变;中性 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方运行,20日线偏下;偏空 利空: 行情驱动:供应端减产有 ...
低硫油市场结构走强,但潜在压力仍存
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:48
燃料油日报 | 2025-04-29 低硫油市场结构走强,但潜在压力仍存 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.46%,报3026元/吨;INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.94%,报3529 元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡走势,短期不确定性因素较多,趋势尚不明朗,对下游FU、LU价格指引有限。 就燃料油自身基本面来看,虽然前期现货端紧张的矛盾已缓解,炼厂与船燃端需求面临利空。但随着夏季临近, 中东、埃及等地电厂终端需求将迎来季节性提升,由于天然气短缺的问题,埃及、伊朗与伊拉克预计会使用更多 高硫燃料油来替代天然气,为燃料油带来额外的消费增量。4月份埃及、沙特高硫燃料油进口已经有显著增加的信 号,未来几个月有望贡献更多的消费增量。 低硫燃料油方面,市场结构有边际好转的迹象,现货贴水、月差与裂解价差回升,西区套利船货供应边际收紧。 但剩余产能仍较为充裕,科威特、尼日利亚炼厂产量近期有所回升。此外,低硫燃料油需求份额被替代的趋势并 未逆转,5月地中海ECA生效后或面临进一步的压力。此外,如果关税冲突延续,全球贸易需求面临下行风险,进 而对燃料油需求形成利空,低硫燃料油反应会更加敏感。 策略 高硫方面:震荡 ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250425
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 04:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to continue a mild upward trend in the short term, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is partly supported by the improved demand expectation for Middle - East summer power generation, but downstream bunker fuel demand and raw material procurement demand will continue to pressure the high - sulfur market. The fuel oil market will oscillate, with FU2507 operating in the 2990 - 3030 range and LU2506 in the 3430 - 3480 range [3]. - The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For fuel oil, the fundamentals show a neutral situation, the basis indicates a bullish trend, the inventory is neutral, the price on the disk is bearish, the high - sulfur main position is bearish, the low - sulfur main position is bullish, and the overall expectation is for the fuel oil to oscillate [3]. - The prices of FU and LU futures decreased by - 1.15% and - 1.52% respectively, while the basis increased by 132.62% and 65.68% [5]. - Among the spot prices, the prices of some fuel oils decreased (e.g., - 1.42% for Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil), while others increased (e.g., 3.18% for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil) [6]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors are not clearly stated, while bearish factors are also not clearly presented. The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - A Singapore trader believes the low - sulfur fuel oil market is favorable for all parties, and the short - term upward trend will continue. Although the overall inventory in Singapore is high, the supply of qualified spot goods is limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is partly supported by the improved demand expectation for Middle - East summer power generation, but downstream bunker fuel demand and raw material procurement demand will continue to pressure the high - sulfur market [3]. 4. Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the historical data graph of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on April 23 was 2598.9 million barrels, unchanged from the previous period. The historical inventory data shows fluctuations from February to April [7].
燃料油日报:市场短期矛盾有限,等待新的催化-2025-04-03
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-03 05:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term contradiction in the fuel oil market is limited, and it is waiting for new catalysts. Recently, the crude oil price has been strong, with Brent rising to around $75 per barrel, enhancing the cost - side support for fuel oil, and both FU and LU have fluctuated upwards [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is still in the adjustment stage, with the marginal weakening of the spot premium, but there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil contradiction will suppress the growth of high - sulfur fuel oil supply. In addition, with the approaching of summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other places will have a seasonal increase, and due to the natural gas shortage, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high - sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1]. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable in the short term and may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil. In the medium term, its market share will continue to be squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: It will fluctuate, with short - term adjustment and support at the bottom [2]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It will fluctuate, and a medium - term bearish view is taken [2]. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy is provided [2]. - **Cross - period**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy is provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy is provided [2]. 4. Chart Information The report provides multiple charts related to fuel oil, including Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, and the closing prices, trading volumes and open interests of fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3][4][6]. The data sources for these charts are mainly Flush, Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][8][9].