Group 1: A-share Market and Securities Firms - Two major securities firms, CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, experienced significant selling pressure with a combined total of 38.6 billion yuan in sell orders, indicating they are acting as index rhythm adjusters rather than leading the current market rally [1] - The overall performance of blue-chip stocks has lagged behind, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Multiple international investment banks have updated their forecasts for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with UBS predicting four consecutive rate cuts totaling 100 basis points starting in September [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts in the following year, potentially lowering rates to 3%–3.25% [2] - Morgan Stanley and Barclays also expect rate cuts, while Deutsche Bank suggests a divided opinion among Fed officials may arise during the upcoming FOMC meeting [2] Group 3: Hong Kong Financial Support for Tech Companies - Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, announced initiatives to assist mainland tech companies in raising funds in Hong Kong, including optimizing listing regulations and promoting second listings for overseas firms [2] Group 4: Consumption and Economic Policies - The Ministry of Commerce plans to conduct pilot projects in about 50 cities to explore new consumption models and enhance service consumption, aiming to address the current supply-demand imbalance [3][4] - The government is focusing on innovative service consumption scenarios and enhancing the quality of consumption resources to support high-quality economic development [4] Group 5: Agricultural Production Adjustments - A meeting was held to discuss the control of breeding sow production capacity, with plans to reduce the national breeding sow inventory by approximately 1 million heads [7] Group 6: Fiscal Revenue Data - From January to August, China's general public budget revenue reached 148.198 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, with tax revenue showing a slight increase [6] Group 7: AI Chip Development - Alibaba's self-developed AI chip has been reported to match some key parameters of NVIDIA's H20 chip, indicating significant advancements in the company's technology capabilities [5] Group 8: Futures Market Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange is seeking public opinions on the draft for coking coal futures options contracts, indicating ongoing developments in the futures market [8]

生猪产能调控企业座谈会9月16日在北京召开，一参会企业总裁透露，会上谈起了猪企控制能繁母猪产 能的任务。据悉，有牧原股份、温氏股份等多家企业参会，会上还提到了落实生猪出栏称重等内容。 此次座谈会由农业农村部畜牧兽医局会同国家发改委价格司联合组织，共有25家龙头企业参与，除牧 原、温氏、新希望等头部企业外，还包括多家具有区域代表性的规模化猪场。会议明确提出，各企业需 在2026年1月底前将能繁母猪存栏量调减至3950万头，同时严格控制出栏体重在120公斤以下，减少二次 育肥行为，避免过度压栏和投机性补栏。 此外，会议还强调要落实出栏称重等标准化操作，推动行业走向更加规范、透明的生产管理模式。这些 措施不仅是短期调控手段，更是推动产业长期高质量发展的重要基础。 与7月会议相比的新进展 据报道，有关部门之前已召开"生猪生产调度会"，计划将全国能繁母猪存栏量在现有基础上调减100万 头左右，即降至约3950万头。 < p> 会议背景与行业现状 今年以来，生猪市场持续面临产能过剩、价格低迷的严峻挑战。根据农业农村部监测数据，当前能繁母 猪存栏量仍高于正常保有量3.7%，仔猪价格持续探底，北方地区7公斤仔猪均价仅为260 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent pig production capacity regulation meeting held on September 16 emphasizes the control of breeding sow capacity, aiming to stabilize the supply of pigs for the upcoming year [1][2][3] Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting included major pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group, indicating the importance of the discussion [2] - Participants were prohibited from bringing communication devices and were instructed not to disclose meeting content, highlighting the sensitivity of the topics discussed [2] - Key topics included controlling breeding sow capacity, limiting "secondary fattening," and ensuring reduced weight at pig slaughter [2][3] Group 2: Breeding Sow Capacity Targets - The target for breeding sow inventory is to reduce it by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million, based on the "Implementation Plan for Pig Production Capacity Regulation (2024 Revision)" [3] - The normal breeding sow inventory is expected to stabilize around 39 million heads, with projections indicating a peak of 40.8 million heads in November 2024 [3] Group 3: Company Responses - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope have committed to not increasing breeding sow capacity and are actively managing their inventory in response to national policies [4][5] - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its breeding sow inventory to 3.3 million heads by the end of the year and is focused on lowering the average weight of pigs for slaughter [4] - New Hope has maintained stable breeding sow inventory levels throughout 2023 and aims to enhance efficiency and compliance to stabilize the market [5]

【#9月上旬猪价同比降逾三成# 产能调控成为生猪养殖行业关键词】9月17日，有上市猪企人士告诉智 通财经记者，生猪产能调控企业座谈会9月16日在北京召开。据悉，牧原股份、温氏股份等多家企业参 会，会议涉及猪企控制能繁母猪产能的任务。今年以来，猪价持续低迷，近期部分低价区已接近成本 线。国家统计局9月14日发布的数据显示，9月上旬，生猪（外三元）价格为13.7元/公斤，与2024年9月 上旬的19.8元/公斤相比，下降30.8%。 4月29日，农业农村部办公厅发布的《养殖业节粮行动实施方案》中提到，持续调整优化生猪产能。实 施生猪产能调控实施方案，把住能繁母猪存栏量"总开关"，引导养殖场户优化母猪存栏结构、合理控制 产能。持续完善生猪产能监测和预警体系，及时发布市场信息，指导养殖场户适时出栏和优化养殖规 模，促进供需适配。（澎湃） 7月23日，农业农村部曾召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，部党组书记、部长韩俊在会上指出，要 严格落实产能调控举措，合理淘汰能繁母猪，适当调减能繁母猪存栏，减少二次育肥，控制肥猪出栏体 重，严控新增产能。 5月底，相关部门开会，引导生猪行业发展，提出不增母猪、育肥猪降体重到120KG ...

Group 1 - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing a downturn, with the breeding ETF (516760) down by 0.97% and showing continuous premium, having received net subscriptions for three consecutive days [1] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, held a meeting to analyze the current pig production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures with 25 participating companies, including Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope [1] - Current prices for piglets and pigs have dropped to near breakeven levels, leading to weak market willingness to increase production, which may result in a larger reduction of breeding sows in Q4 [1] Group 2 - The livestock farming sector's recent strong performance is driven by "anti-involution" policies that control new capacity and guide pig prices into a reasonable profit range [2] - The reduction in the number of breeding sows further validates the effectiveness of capacity reduction policies, indicating a shift from extensive expansion to structural optimization, benefiting leading companies with cost and scale advantages [2] - The breeding ETF's tracking index has a low price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 15, indicating a high safety margin and potential for rebound if funds shift from high to low sectors [2]

Group 1 - The core discussion at the meeting focused on the task of controlling the breeding sow capacity among pig farming enterprises [1] - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group participated in the meeting [1] - The government plans to reduce the national breeding sow inventory by approximately 1 million heads, bringing it down to about 39.5 million heads [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the livestock sector, with significant increases in stock prices for companies like Tiankang Biological, Lihua Shares, and Biological Shares, alongside a rise in the Livestock ETF [1] - A meeting on pig production capacity regulation is scheduled, involving 25 major companies to discuss current production conditions and strategies for capacity control for the latter half of the year and next year [1] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig output, leading to potential pressure on pig prices, while long-term policies aim to eliminate inefficient production capacity, which may elevate pig prices over time [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.57% of the index, with major players including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the weekly situation of the feed and breeding industry, including the markets of pigs, eggs, and corn, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions based on the supply - demand, cost, and other factors of each variety [4][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Breeding View Summary - **Pigs**: Supply growth suppresses prices, and the futures price can be short - sold on rebounds. In the short term, policy regulation and pre - holiday stocking expectations may support prices, but the large supply will limit the upside. In the long term, the supply before May next year will increase, and prices will still be under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: The game between supply and demand intensifies, and it is necessary to wait for spot guidance. In the short term, cold - storage eggs may limit price increases, and in the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [5]. - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under seasonal pressure. In the long term, the planting is stable, but the cost support has shifted down [6]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the national spot price was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13255 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was 215 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The average weekly slaughter weight increased, the fat - standard price difference widened, the daily average slaughter rate and slaughter volume decreased first and then increased, the cold - storage inventory rate increased slightly, the pig - grain ratio decreased, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased, and the number of live - pig warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance improved. The supply of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 and 01 contracts, take rolling stop - profit on short positions and add short positions on rebounds. The 05 and 03 contracts are generally weak, and the 03 contract is weaker. The 07 contract is relatively strong. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.61 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 34 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was 230 yuan/500 kg, up 306 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of eggs increased, the utilization rate of hatching eggs was stable, the number of culled chickens decreased, the egg - chick price decreased, the production and circulation inventories decreased, and the profit of egg - chicken farming improved [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - laid hens in September is relatively high, and the number of culled chickens has slowed down. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [83]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For non - holders, wait for spot guidance. For short positions, pay attention to the pressure level of 3100 - 3150. The 12 and 01 contracts are mainly in a wide - range shock [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 113 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of corn in some areas increased, the inventory of old - crop corn was limited, the new - crop corn in some areas of the Northeast was gradually listed, the import volume decreased, the demand for feed and deep - processing was weak, and the inventory decreased [90]. - **Key Data Tracking**: In the next 10 days, precipitation in some areas is expected to be higher than normal, which may have an impact on corn production. The overall growth of new - season corn is suitable, but the cost support has shifted down [100]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 - contract, wait for rebounds to short - sell, pay attention to the pressure level of 2220 - 2250, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remains loose, and pig prices are still under pressure. However, a meeting in mid - September will affect market sentiment and cause price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices fluctuated downward, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and spot prices are stable with fluctuations. But the inventory of breeding sows in September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago increased, so there is supply pressure. According to Mysteel data, the planned slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month. The meeting on September 16 will affect market sentiment. On the demand side, the demand in the north has slightly recovered due to the temperature drop, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to rise, but the growth rate has declined in the latest week [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 891 lots to 15,745 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 428, a decrease of 2 lots from last week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 195 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national pig market price this week was 13.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg from last week and a 2.1% decrease from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and a 2.51% decrease from the same period last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of August 28, the national pork market price was 24.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads month - on - month and a 0.025% decrease year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [49]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [55]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million heads, an increase of 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it was 0.4737 million heads, a decrease of 1.44% month - on - month and an increase of 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.47 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from last week [60]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 12, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets reported a loss of 161.93 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 13.53 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.12 yuan/head [65]. - **Pork Imports**: In July 2025, China's pork imports were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imports were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [70]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of September 12, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 11, the average national price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 12, the spot price of soybean meal was 3079.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; as of September 11, the corn price was 2365.49 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 912.18, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons month - on - month. According to Mysteel data, in July 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and increased by 9.15% year - on - year [80][85][89]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [93]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Demand**: The operating rate of slaughter enterprises increased, and the frozen - product storage capacity remained stable. As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, an increase of 5.32% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [94][100]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report provides trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content [101][104].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is experiencing mixed performance, with a focus on capacity regulation and price stabilization for pigs, as indicated by the upcoming meeting of major enterprises organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 12, 2025, the CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) showed mixed results among its constituent stocks, with Huaying Agriculture (002321) leading gains at 3.57%, followed by Jin Xin Nong (002548) at 3.03%, and Luo Niu Shan (000735) at 2.03% [1] - The Livestock ETF (159867) was quoted at 0.69 yuan, with a net subscription exceeding 140 million shares, marking four consecutive days of net inflow [1] Group 2: Industry Regulation and Risks - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to convene 25 leading enterprises on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity regulation for the second half of the year and next year, emphasizing "capacity control, weight reduction, and limiting breeding" [1] - Pacific Securities noted that the industry faces increased epidemic risks, particularly with recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, China, leading to a rise in risks for the breeding industry [1] - Despite ongoing profitability in fattening and breeding segments, the implementation of anti-involution policies and the need to mitigate epidemic risks are expected to lead to a reduction in industry capacity [1] Group 3: Investment Value - Most listed breeding companies are currently valued at historical lows, with significant potential for upward movement towards historical averages, indicating long-term investment value [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which include companies like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), account for 65.57% of the index [2]