Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily driven by oversupply, with the national average price dropping to 12.26 yuan/kg, marking a new low for the year [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.38 million heads as of August 2025, is 103.5% of the normal level, contributing to the oversupply [2]. - The planned pig slaughter volume for September is expected to reach 13.32 million heads, a 1.29% increase from August and a 17.46% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing supply pressure [2]. - Seasonal factors, such as typhoons in southern regions and the upcoming holidays, are expected to further increase market supply as producers rush to sell [2][3]. Production Efficiency and Costs - Leading enterprises are improving production efficiency, with some achieving a PSY (pigs per sow per year) of 28-29 heads, which supports supply despite the current low prices [3]. - The average cost of pig farming is around 6.5 yuan/kg for large groups and can reach 7 yuan/kg for smaller farmers, indicating that current prices are nearing the cost line for many producers [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the pig price has not yet reached its bottom, with the industry likely to remain in a "bottoming phase" due to continued oversupply [4][5]. - Long-term improvements in the supply-demand balance are anticipated as production capacity control policies are implemented, potentially leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory to around 39 million heads by late 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily driven by oversupply, with the average price dropping to 12.26 yuan/kg, marking a new low for the year [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.38 million heads as of August 2025, is 103.5% of the normal holding capacity, contributing to the oversupply [3]. - The planned pig slaughter volume for September is expected to reach 13.32 million heads, a slight increase of 1.29% from August and a 17.46% increase year-on-year [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase of supply surplus, leading to downward pressure on prices [3][4]. Market Conditions and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming holidays are expected to increase market stocking intentions, potentially accelerating the outflow of previously held pigs [4]. - Consumer demand remains weak, with no significant boost to pig prices anticipated in the near term [4][5]. Financial Impact on Farmers - Farmers are facing significant losses, with self-breeding farmers losing approximately 116 yuan per head and fattening farmers losing about 263 yuan per head [6]. - The cost of raising pigs for large groups is around 6.5 yuan/kg, while for smallholders it is about 7 yuan/kg, indicating that current prices are nearing the cost line for many producers [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that pig prices have not yet reached the bottom, with the industry likely to remain in a "bottoming phase" [8]. - Long-term improvements in the supply-demand balance are anticipated due to production capacity regulation policies, with a potential decrease in breeding sow inventory to around 39 million heads [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Oscillating with a bearish bias [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in supply has made the spot market weak, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market may remain weak. The 01 contract's upside is restricted by increased production capacity until February next year. If there are winter epidemics, there will be short - term selling pressure. With piglets in continuous loss for a month, if the loss situation persists, the long - term investment value of the far - month 07 contract can be considered [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market Review - In September, the spot price hit a new low since the beginning of the year, and the overall price center has been declining. The price mainly fluctuates between 12.8 yuan/kg and 16 yuan/kg, with no obvious seasonal trend. The recent decline is due to increased supply and high slaughter weight, indicating abundant production capacity [4] - From July to August, affected by winter piglet losses, the slaughter slowed down. In June, under the background of anti - involution, production capacity regulation stimulated the spot market. The price difference between standard and fat pigs widened, and group farms reduced slaughter while secondary fattening was active, leading to a price increase in July. In September, the slaughter growth inflection point arrived, with production capacity restoration from high - profit piglets in the first quarter. The anti - involution sentiment faded, and the spot price dropped to the lowest point of the year, but the decline was gentle compared to the past five years [6] 3.1.2 Spread Market Review - Affected by anti - involution, the futures - spot structure has shifted to contango. As the spot market weakened in September, the futures market followed passively, maintaining the contango structure. The 07 contract has the highest price due to the expected impact of production capacity reduction on next year's second half - year supply [3][7] 3.2 Capacity Realization in the Cycle 3.2.1 Gradual Restoration of Reproductive Sows - In the second half of the year, the monthly change in the number of reproductive sows was small. As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, 103.6% of the normal level of 39 million. According to the meeting, the number of reproductive sows is expected to be reduced by 1 million by the end of the year, still above the normal level [3][10] 3.2.2 Obvious Improvement in Production Efficiency - In the third quarter, the monthly slaughter volume increased significantly, reflecting the restoration of piglet production capacity in spring. The high piglet profit in February and March stimulated breeding, and the number of piglets increased. The slaughter volume is expected to continue to rise until February 2026, with a significant increase from September to November [3][13] - Since 2023, production efficiency has improved significantly. The average number of healthy piglets per litter has shown an upward trend and remained stable at a high level throughout the year, which is related to increased production capacity and attention to piglet survival rate due to high profits [15] 3.2.3 Steady Increase in Slaughter Weight - The large price difference between standard and fat pigs this year led to low expectations for weight reduction. In the second half of the year, the slaughter weight reached the highest level in the past five years. Although leading enterprises have reduced the weight, the overall national weight reduction is not obvious. The current average national slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, still at a high level in the past five years. Continuous secondary fattening has hindered active weight reduction [16][18] 3.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the self - breeding and self - raising profit entered a loss, ending 16 consecutive months of positive profit. However, the cash cost of breeding is still positive. The positive profit in this cycle is mainly due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the reduction of purchased piglet prices to the cost level. Short - term losses have little impact on breeding behavior, but if losses continue for more than a quarter, there may be motivation to reduce production capacity [21][23] 3.4 Stable Demand - This year's slaughter volume is better than last year, and the overall demand is normal. During the fourth - quarter peak season, the relatively low pig price supports demand. The increase in the frozen product inventory rate reflects the expectation of production capacity reduction in the future [24] 3.5 Policy Attention - The policy focuses on the active reduction of reproductive sows, aiming to reduce the number by 1 million by the end of the year. If implemented, it may affect the pig slaughter volume in the second half of next year. The current pig - grain ratio has triggered the purchase and storage policy. Although the grain price increase is limited due to a good corn harvest, attention should still be paid to policies related to the pig - grain ratio caused by falling pig prices [27]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry in China, particularly the performance and regulatory environment affecting major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs Group [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Profitability in 2025**: The overall profitability of the pig farming industry in the first half of 2025 is reported to be strong, with Muyuan Foods achieving a net profit of 10 billion yuan, significantly outperforming its peers. In contrast, companies like Tangrenshen and Jinxinnong reported losses [1][3]. - **Impact of Pig Prices on CPI**: Pig prices have a significant impact on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Although the weight of pig prices in CPI has decreased from 2.3% in 2021 to 1.3% in 2022, it remains the highest among single commodities. In August 2025, pig prices fell by 16.1%, affecting the national CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points [1][4]. - **Regulatory Measures**: Since May 2025, the government has implemented strict measures to control pig production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows by 1 million across the top 25 pig farming companies and provinces. The overall output is expected to decrease by 10% year-on-year [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: If the regulatory measures are effectively implemented, a 1% reduction in supply could lead to a 5%-7% increase in pig prices. By 2026, the national output is projected to decrease by about 5%, potentially resulting in a price increase of 25%-35%. The average price for 2026 is expected to be between 16-17 yuan per kilogram, with an average profit of 300-500 yuan per pig [1][5]. Additional Important Content - **Market Reactions**: Pig farming enterprises are responding positively to the regulatory policies. Large companies plan to significantly reduce the number of purchased piglets, while some free-range companies intend to cut their growth plans for the next year by as much as half [1][6]. - **Current Market Conditions**: The piglet market has seen significant price drops, with some regions reporting prices below cost. For instance, in Henan, Anhui, and Shandong, weaned piglets weighing 6-7 kg are selling for around 200 yuan, while the cost is approximately 300-350 yuan, indicating that breeding companies are facing losses [2][6]. - **Cautious Outlook**: If the average price of piglets remains low at around 300 yuan, breeding companies will be near the breakeven point, leading to a cautious outlook on future pig prices [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price falling below 14 yuan/kg in August and reaching a three-year low of 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19. The government is committed to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices, which will shape the industry's future dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In August, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices dropping below 14 yuan/kg. By September 19, the average price of live pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][2]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a concentration of sales from smallholders, leading to a notable price drop. High temperatures in August also suppressed consumer demand, resulting in weak sales [2]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million in July, showing a slight decrease. Data indicates a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory, with some samples showing growth while others indicate a decline [2]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the government's commitment to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices. Clear regulatory targets were set for breeding stock and slaughter weights, with tighter funding and environmental measures [3]. - The short-term impact of these policies may increase supply pressure and lead to further price declines, but the long-term outlook suggests a potential recovery in pig prices by 2026 as inefficient production capacity is eliminated [3]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation will remain a central theme in the industry, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity. High-quality producers are likely to maintain profitability and benefit from improved margins post-regulation [4]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investments. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tian Kang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [4]. Sales Data of Listed Companies - In August, major companies reported a decline in average sales prices, with Muyuan Foods at 13.51 yuan/kg, Wens at 13.90 yuan/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 13.75 yuan/kg, and New Hope at 13.54 yuan/kg, reflecting changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23% respectively [5]. - The sales volume for August showed a recovery, with Muyuan Foods selling 700,000 pigs, Wens 325,000, New Hope 134,000, and Zhengbang 67,000, representing increases of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and a decrease of -3.67% respectively [5]. - The average weight of pigs sold also decreased, with Muyuan at 125.29 kg, Wens at 109.95 kg, and New Hope at 95.07 kg, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5].

Core Insights - The livestock sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing nearly 1 billion yuan in net inflow over the past 10 days, with approximately 60% exposure to pig farming [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has decreased to 12.79 yuan/kg, down 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a continued downward trend in pig prices due to oversupply in the market [1] - A meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on September 16 emphasized the need to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming to lower the total to approximately 39.5 million heads [1] - Recent measures to curb overproduction in the pig industry are expected to raise the price center of domestic pigs in the medium to long term, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency in the industry [1] - The livestock sector may be entering a favorable allocation phase, with attention on the marginal changes in the Livestock ETF (159865) [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) as potential investment options [2] - The "pig content" in the Livestock ETF is approximately 60%, indicating the weight of stocks related to pig farming, feed, and animal health within the index [2]

Core Insights - The live pig market has experienced fluctuations in prices, with a peak of 15.3 yuan/kg in early July, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand [1] - As of September 22, the average price of live pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, with regional variations [1] - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating no significant reduction in production capacity [2] Price Trends - Live pig prices surged in early July but have since declined due to increased supply and weak consumer demand [1] - The futures market for live pigs saw a peak in July, followed by a downward trend, with the main contract dropping to 12,770 yuan/ton by September 19 [1] Breeding Inventory - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.42 million heads as of July 2025, showing minimal change [2] - Profitability in pig sales has remained positive, preventing a significant reduction in breeding capacity [2] Production Efficiency - Improvements in breeding techniques and management have led to increased production efficiency, with the potential for further enhancements through advanced technologies [3] Supply Pressure - An increase in the supply of live pigs is expected from September to November 2025, with supply levels higher than in previous years [4] - The average weight of pigs at market is also anticipated to exceed historical levels, contributing to supply pressure [4] Policy and External Factors - Domestic policies aimed at regulating pig production and managing supply are crucial for market dynamics [5] - External factors, such as import tariffs and seasonal disease risks, may also impact the market [6] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the live pig market remains weak due to high supply and limited demand [6] - A potential seasonal rebound in prices is expected in the fourth quarter, but overall supply pressure will continue to limit price increases [6]

消息面上，生猪产能调控超预期，9月16日生猪产能调控企业座谈会召开。此前包括牧原股份、新希 望、大北农等大型猪企，均在今年8月底至9月初的投资者交流活动中强调会响应国家的母猪产能调控政 策。 数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、温 氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、新希望(000876)、梅花生物(600873)、大北农(002385)、圣农发展 (002299)、生物股份(600201)、天康生物(002100)、唐人神(002567)，前十大权重股合计占比65.57%。 国金证券指出，政策端持续发力，9月16日生猪养殖行业仍有座谈会推动产能去化落地，年前政策端主 动去产能或持续推进，利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间， 近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏 损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利 润，且非洲猪瘟之后行业的快速扩张中，仍有大量企业是低质量扩充产能，行业成本方差依旧巨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Pig Industry**: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - **Corn Industry**: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has initiated a capacity regulation meeting for the pig industry, emphasizing a reduction in production by 1 million pigs by the end of the year among major pig farming enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Regulation - The meeting highlighted a focus on "controlling breeding and nurturing" and detailed the tasks for reducing breeding capacity among major pig farming enterprises [1]. - A series of financial measures will accompany the capacity regulation to support the industry [1]. - The meeting called for leading enterprises to take the initiative in controlling production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows and lowering the volume of pigs for market [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since late July, pig prices have been on a downward trend, with the futures index hitting a yearly low in late September [1]. - The recovery of domestic pig production capacity post-African swine fever has been primarily driven by leading enterprises, with 23 listed pig companies selling 108 million pigs in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.86% [1]. - The proportion of these companies' sales to the national total rose to 29.5%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The current inventory of breeding sows remains stable, with a slight decrease of 0.02% month-on-month but an increase of 0.02% year-on-year, indicating a slow process of capacity reduction [2]. - The industry is experiencing pressure from supply, with larger weights of pigs leading to increased market supply and a generally pessimistic market sentiment [3]. - Demand is supported by seasonal factors, such as cooler weather in the north and pre-holiday stocking, but overall demand remains limited [3].