2026 年 01 月 11 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20260103-20260109） 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共6页 简单金融 成就梦想 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE ...

| 六、非金属建材 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 普通硅酸盐水泥(P.O 42.5袋装) | 出 | 328.2 | -3.7 | -1.1 | | 普通硅酸盐水泥(P.O 42.5散装) | 世 | 281.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | | 浮法平板玻璃(4.8/5mm) | 발 | 1132.5 | -20.6 | -1.8 | | 七、农产品(主要用于加工) | | | | | | 稻米(粳稻米) | 音 | 3951.0 | 7.8 | 0.2 | | 小麦(国标三等) | 발 | 2491.4 | -5.8 | -0.2 | | 玉米(黄玉米二等) | 발 | 2228.4 | -2.8 | -0.1 | | 棉花(皮棉,白棉三级) | 발 | 14918.1 | 190.6 | 1.3 | | 生猪(外三元) | 千克 | 11.7 | 0.2 | 1.7 | | 大豆(黄豆) | 발 | 4265.7 | -23.2 | -0.5 | | 豆粕(粗蛋白含量≥43%) | 발 | 3096.4 | -93 | -0.3 | | 花生(油 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported on December 4 that in the monitoring of prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories in the national circulation market, there were notable price changes in November 2025 [1] Price Changes Summary - 15 products experienced price increases, while 30 products saw price decreases, and 5 products remained stable [1] - Specifically, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) decreased by 2.6% compared to the previous period [1] - The price of coking coal (main coking coal) also saw a decline of 2.5% in the same timeframe [1]

【重点关注】 ·24日晚油价下调加满一箱油将少花2.5元 ·国家能源局：截至10月底全国累计发电装机容量同比增长17.3% ·市场监管总局：支持有条件的民营经济组织参与产业计量测试中心建设 【国内要闻】 ·受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽柴油价格将于11月24日24时起下调。据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监 测，本轮成品油调价周期内（11月10日—11月21日）国际油价波动下行。本次油价调整具体情况如下： 从11月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别下调70元和65元。全国平均来看：92号汽油每升下调0.05 元，95号汽油每升下调0.06元，0号柴油每升下调0.06元。据记者计算，用92号汽油加满50升油箱将少花 2.5元。 ·11月24日，国家能源局发布1—10月份全国电力工业统计数据。截至10月底，全国累计发电装机容量 37.5亿千瓦，同比增长17.3%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量11.4亿千瓦，同比增长43.8%；风电装机容量 5.9亿千瓦，同比增长21.4%。1—10月份，全国发电设备累计平均利用2619小时，比上年同期降低260小 时。 ·市场监管总局印发《计量促进民营经济发展壮大若干措施》，其中指出，加强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend in prices, with 30 products experiencing price increases, 17 decreasing, and 3 remaining stable [1] Price Changes - As of mid-November 2025, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) is 11.6 yuan per kilogram, which represents a decrease of 0.2 yuan per kilogram compared to early November, reflecting a decline of 1.7% [1]

Core Insights - The overall trend in the pig market indicates a continued decline in prices, with a significant drop in live pig prices observed in November, reflecting a supply surplus and weak demand [1][5]. Price Trends - As of mid-November 2025, 30 out of 50 monitored products saw price increases, while 17 experienced declines, with live pig prices reported at 11.6 yuan/kg, down 1.7% from the previous period [1]. - The price of live pigs (external three yuan) fell from 12.05 yuan/kg on November 1 to 11.65 yuan/kg by November 24, marking a 3.3% decrease [1]. Policy and Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has proposed measures to strengthen comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig industry, aiming for high-quality development and dynamic supply-demand adjustments [2]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming southern cured meat season may provide some support for pig prices, but the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to limit any significant price rebound [2]. Market Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, the current low prices for fat and piglets may lead to a market-driven capacity reduction, with historical patterns indicating a likelihood of industry contraction [4]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, with a reported decline of 90,000 heads in the third quarter and a total below 40 million by the end of October, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Huatai Futures anticipates that the upcoming months will see increased pressure on pig supply due to concentrated market exits and seasonal peaks in slaughtering, despite ongoing demand growth [4]. - The chief economist at Zheshang Securities notes that the current pig cycle is characterized by shorter cycles and increased volatility, with a supply surplus expected to persist in the near term [5]. - Seasonal demand for cured meats in November and December may provide temporary support for prices, but the overall market remains oversupplied, limiting potential price increases [5].

人民财讯11月24日电，国家统计局11月24日公布数据显示，据对全国流通领域9大类50种重要生产资料 市场价格的监测显示，2025年11月中旬与11月上旬相比，30种产品价格上涨，17种下降，3种持平。其 中，生猪(外三元)价格为11.6元/千克，比上期下降1.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that in early November 2025, compared to late October, 26 out of 50 monitored important production materials saw price increases, while 23 experienced declines, and 1 remained stable [1] - The price of live pigs (external three yuan) decreased by 1.7% month-on-month, reaching 11.8 yuan per kilogram [1]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]