Core Viewpoint - The import volume of diluted asphalt in China reached a new low in April 2025, primarily due to trade tensions and reduced profitability in processing diluted asphalt, indicating that "low imports" may become the norm for the remainder of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Import Data - In April 2025, China's diluted asphalt import volume was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 97.58% month-on-month and 97.65% year-on-year, marking the lowest monthly import level since February 2019 [1]. - The total import volume from January to April 2025 was 1.29 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 37.18%, also the lowest for the same period since 2021 [1]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - U.S. sanctions have significantly contributed to the record low import levels of diluted asphalt, with President Trump announcing the termination of oil trading agreements with Venezuela on February 26, 2025, and requiring Chevron to exit Venezuelan oil operations by April 3, 2025 [3]. - The sanctions have led to a reduction in U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil and have limited the import enthusiasm of other countries [3]. - Contrary to market expectations, the anticipated increase in China's diluted asphalt imports following the sanctions has not materialized, as evidenced by the low import figures in April [3]. Group 3: Processing Profitability - The current tax policy on processing diluted asphalt, which allows deductions based only on the proportion of taxable products, has significantly reduced the profitability of processing diluted asphalt, leading to a decline in domestic refineries' willingness to process it [5]. - The production of asphalt using crude oil quotas is becoming the primary method in 2025, as the profitability of processing diluted asphalt has not improved compared to processing crude oil [5]. - To achieve profitability in processing diluted asphalt, the price spread would need to decrease by approximately $10 per barrel, which is unlikely to happen without affecting the high cracking margins of diluted asphalt [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the combined internal and external factors, it is expected that the import volume of diluted asphalt will remain low and may become a norm for the remainder of 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have remained unchanged due to insufficient adjustment margins, with the latest price change occurring on April 30, 2025, resulting in a minor increase of 25 yuan/ton, which did not meet the adjustment threshold [1][3] Oil Price Adjustment Overview - The last oil price adjustment saw a significant drop in prices, with gasoline and diesel decreasing by 480 yuan and 465 yuan/ton respectively, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.38 to 0.42 yuan/liter [3] - From February to April 2025, oil prices experienced a cumulative decline of 835 yuan/ton, equating to a decrease of about 0.67 to 0.71 yuan/liter across various regions [3] International Oil Market Trends - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil has fallen to 58.29 USD/barrel, while Brent crude is at 61.29 USD/barrel, reflecting a significant downward trend in the oil market [3] - This week, WTI crude oil has seen a cumulative drop of 7.5%, and Brent crude has decreased by 6.85%, marking a decline of over 10% from the mid-April peak [3] Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The oil market is currently characterized by mixed signals, with OPEC+ expected to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in June, while concerns about energy demand persist due to tariffs impacting manufacturing [5] - The upcoming oil price adjustment on May 19, 2025, is anticipated to reflect a negative change rate, with potential decreases in gasoline and diesel prices estimated between 150 to 200 yuan/ton [5][7] Regional Price Information - Current gasoline and diesel prices across various regions in China are provided, with Beijing's 92 gasoline priced at 7.10 yuan/liter and 0 diesel at 6.78 yuan/liter [8]

伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐：美国制裁在核谈判期间传递了负面信息。 ...