Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: Recently, the US soybean market declined, dragging down domestic meal prices. However, heavy rain in Argentina may damage soybean harvests and boost US soybean prices. In China, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans this month, oil - mill operations have gradually resumed. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The USDA report predicts an increase in global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season, which will ease supply and suppress meal prices. After the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal, direct import pressure will decrease, but new imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory will affect prices. Today, rapeseed meal futures prices rose, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The US biofuel blending regulations await approval, and there are concerns about US soybean oil demand. Palm oil prices will be under pressure as the palm oil - producing areas enter the seasonal production - increasing season. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports eases supply pressure, and the increased tariff raises the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil, limiting future imports. However, high inventory continues to affect prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply surplus and long - term uncertainty. Today, rapeseed oil futures prices rose and remained range - bound, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9440 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; ICE rapeseed was 719.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 15.2 Canadian dollars; domestic rapeseed was 5211 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 199 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; for rapeseed meal, it was 219 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 47537 lots, up 6167 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 26609 lots, up 14338 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1103, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it was 30947, down 37 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9561.25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 5223.93 yuan/ton, up 108.1 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.79, up 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 195 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; for rapeseed meal, it was - 82 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1340 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; for rapeseed meal, it was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 27 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 200,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 17.32%, down 25.19 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 155,500 tons, down 5,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 29,000 tons, down 7,000 tons. The East China rapeseed oil inventory was 637,000 tons, down 12,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 435,400 tons, down 18,800 tons. The Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 80,000 tons, unchanged; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 248,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 27,800 tons, up 20,600 tons; for rapeseed meal, it was 35,800 tons, down 14,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 2.7772 million tons, down 66,400 tons; for edible vegetable oil, it was 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 423.5 billion yuan, down 131.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.22%, down 0.26 percentage points; for put options, it was 22.22%, down 0.26 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.29%, up 0.96 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 27.02%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.01%, down 0.08 percentage points; for put options, it was 16.01%, down 0.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.16%, down 1.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 16.17%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Tuesday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed higher due to strong demand. The price increase ranged from 3.7 to 15.6 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **US Soybeans**: As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%. The US soybean market declined recently, but heavy rain in Argentina may damage soybean harvests [2]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

免责声明 继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油走强提振，菜油震荡收涨，总体仍维持 区间震荡，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9395 | 34 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2510 | 1 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 195 | -18 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 208 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 316509 | 23580 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 623440 | 9329 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 41370 | 6808 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -40947 | 39 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to increased imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory, but the supply is likely to tighten in the long run. The rapeseed meal futures price is oscillating downward, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. The price is in a range - bound oscillation, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) closed at 9374 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) closed at 2487 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) closed at 707.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) closed at 5328 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 206 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 192 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 305,440 lots, up 12,513 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 637,424 lots, up 60,942 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was 34,744 lots, up 8,830 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 50,162 lots, down 12,921 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 0, down 1,707; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 0, down 31,218 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9377.5 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5145.76 yuan/ton, down 49.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 67 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8670 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1140 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total rapeseed import quantity in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed was 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 32 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory was 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal was 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Social consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 22.17%, up 0.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 27.56%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was down 0.07 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.47%, down 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 16.77%, down 0.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed mixed on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 0.21% due to heavy technical resistance. The 7 - month contract fell 1.5 Canadian dollars to 710.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 6.2 Canadian dollars to 676.80 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 6 Canadian dollars to 684.00 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - South American rapeseed production is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season to be 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, which is bullish for the market [2]. Key Points to Watch - The EPA administrator said that the RVO will be announced within two weeks, and attention should be paid to the demand for US soybean oil for biodiesel [2]. - In China, the import volume of rapeseed in the first quarter decreased, reducing the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side. After the tariff increase, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased significantly, limiting future import volumes [2]. - Monitor the rapeseed开机率 and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions on Monday of MyAgriNet, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed futures market shows a trend where near - term contracts are weakening and far - term contracts are slightly firmer. The overall market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed meal has increased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing the market price. The decline in soybean meal prices also drags down rapeseed meal futures prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the cost increase due to the tariff hike on Canadian rapeseed oil restricts future imports, and the supply - side pressure has weakened. But high inventory continues to restrain prices. The weakening of palm oil also affects rapeseed oil, leading to a decline in its price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9216 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2548 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 701 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 149 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Position volumes: The position volume of the rapeseed oil main contract is 280976 lots, up 4397 lots; the position volume of the rapeseed meal main contract is 565683 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 18650 lots, down 3859 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 46891 lots, up 2077 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 1357 sheets, unchanged; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 15700 sheets, up 1700 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9387.5 yuan/ton, down 18.75 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5143.56 yuan/ton, up 128.78 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.67, up 0.09; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 93 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 48 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 640 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 13.5 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 1.45 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 28.52%, up 9.86 percentage points; the monthly import rapeseed crushing profit is 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal area rapeseed oil inventory is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the coastal area rapeseed meal inventory is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.04 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 44.67 million tons, down 0.79 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 6.6 million tons, up 1 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 23 million tons, up 7.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons; the monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.08%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 23.16%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.12%, down 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.13%, down 0.41 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.19%, down 0.31 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.63%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.98%, down 0.56 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.02%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the Canadian rapeseed futures market on Monday, most contracts declined, with the benchmark contract down 0.9%. The near - term contracts weakened, and the far - term contracts were slightly firmer. The prices of rapeseed futures ranged from a decline of 6.3 Canadian dollars to an increase of 3.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - South American rapeseed has a bumper harvest, which pressures international soybean prices. The expected reduction in the planting area of new - season US soybeans may increase the expectation of weather premiums. In the domestic market, before the festival, the soybean clearance time affected the operation of some oil mills, leading to a shortage of soybean meal supply. However, high prices have led to downstream resistance, and the spot price of soybean meal has dropped significantly. After the festival, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose [2].

剧，短线参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 菜籽系产业日报 2025-04-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9333 | -173 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2641 | -43 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 187 321336 | 32 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -29808 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 242 557196 | -10 -8955 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 17062 | -14629 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -22485 | -18944 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1357 | -277 ...