年内累计降息125个基点。 12月5日，印度央行——印度储备银行(RBI)宣布降息25个基点。这是该央行时隔6个月后再次降息，也 是今年的第4次降息，累计降息125个基点。此外，对于印度卢比的持续贬值，印度央行正在放缓干预力 度。 ANZ印度及东南亚首席经济学家Sanjay Mathur表示，银行贷款并未出现"重大回升"。他补充说，虽然美 印贸易协定的最终达成尚无明朗，但关税对经济的影响是显而易见的。 卢比贬值 路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度央行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值，主要缘于印度经济面临多 重风险，包括贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印度央行已允许 卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。印度卢比对美元汇率11月3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创历史新 低。 为何降息？ 根据印度央行发布的声明，由行长桑杰.马霍特拉(Sanjay Malhotra)领导的印度央行货币政策委员会6名 成员一致投票决定将回购利率下调25个基点至5.25%。政策立场维持中性。马霍特拉表示，低通胀和强 劲的经济增长意味着印度正处于一个"罕见的黄金时期"，但一 ...

【导读】印度降息25个基点 大家好，简单关注一则印度降息的消息。 12月5日，印度央行宣布降息25个基点，符合市场预期。 印度央行在通胀跌至历史新低之后，六个月来首次下调基准利率，在美国高关税的背景下为经济提供支 撑。 由行长桑杰·马洛特拉领导的印度储备银行货币政策委员会共有六名成员，他们在周五一致投票决定将 回购利率下调25个基点至5.25%。货币政策立场维持"中性"不变。 经济学家中大多数人都预计到了此次降息，但也有一些原本预计在本周卢比汇率跌破1美元兑90卢比、 创下历史新低后，印度央行会选择按兵不动。降息可能进一步加大该货币的压力——卢比今年以来对美 元已累计下跌近5%，是亚洲表现最差的货币之一。 马洛特拉表示，低通胀叠加强劲的经济增长，意味着印度正处于一个"难得的'金发女孩时期'（既不过 热也不过冷的理想状态）"。 周五的决定是印度央行近几个月以来最棘手的一次权衡，因为其需要在多重目标之间取得平衡。上季度 印度经济增长超过8%，但出口大幅下滑。与此同时，由于食品价格走低，印度10月通胀跌至0.25%，不 过随着有利基数效应的消退，明年通胀可能会回升。 尽管增长强劲，但美国总统特朗普对印度商品征收的5 ...

【导读】印度降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一则印度降息的消息。 12月5日，印度央行宣布降息25个基点，符合市场预期。 印度央行在通胀跌至历史新低之后，六个月来首次下调基准利率，在美国高关税的背景下为经济提供支 撑。 由行长桑杰·马洛特拉领导的印度储备银行货币政策委员会共有六名成员，他们在周五一致投票决定将 回购利率下调25个基点至5.25%。货币政策立场维持"中性"不变。 经济学家中大多数人都预计到了此次降息，但也有一些原本预计在本周卢比汇率跌破1美元兑90卢比、 创下历史新低后，印度央行会选择按兵不动。降息可能进一步加大该货币的压力——卢比今年以来对美 元已累计下跌近5%，是亚洲表现最差的货币之一。 编辑：晨曦 校对：纪元 马洛特拉表示，低通胀叠加强劲的经济增长，意味着印度正处于一个"难得的'金发女孩时期'（既不过 热也不过冷的理想状态）"。 周五的决定是印度央行近几个月以来最棘手的一次权衡，因为其需要在多重目标之间取得平衡。上季度 印度经济增长超过8%，但出口大幅下滑。与此同时，由于食品价格走低，印度10月通胀跌至0.25%，不 过随着有利基数效应的消退，明年通胀可能会回升。 尽 ...

消息人士说，印度央行释放容忍卢比走弱的信号表明其干预措施将主要用于抑制汇率剧烈波动或投机性 交易积聚的迹象，而非捍卫卢比的任何特定汇率水平。 其中一名不愿公开姓名的消息人士说："当基本面一切因素都对该货币不利时，消耗外汇储备没有意 义。" 另一名消息人士说，卢比兑美元汇率跌破90卢比兑换1美元这一重要心理关口引发关注，且可能助长投 机行为，但央行在必要时可以介入以打击投机行为。 新华财经北京12月4日电路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度中央银行将容忍印度货币卢比贬 值，主要缘于印度经济面临多重风险，包括贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行印度储备银行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印 度央行已允许卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创 历史新低。 路透社报道，印度是资本外流最严重市场之一，外国投资者今年以来已抛售价值170亿美元的印度股 票。与此同时，外国直接投资、贸易和离岸融资流动均放缓。 美国彭博新闻社4日发布的调查结果显示，接受调查的44名经济学家中，大部分预判，鉴于当前通胀率 远低于4%的目标，印度央行5日将降息 ...

另一名消息人士说，卢比兑美元汇率跌破90卢比兑换1美元这一重要心理关口引发关注，且可能助长投机行为，但央行在必要时可以介入以打击 投机行为。 路透社报道，印度是资本外流最严重市场之一，外国投资者今年以来已抛售价值170亿美元的印度股票。与此同时，外国直接投资、贸易和离岸 融资流动均放缓。 《印度教徒报》4日报道，外汇交易员认为，投资者在印度与美国贸易关系持续紧张期间将采取谨慎态度。 CR外汇咨询公司执行董事阿米特·帕巴里说："外汇市场如今不再根据关联经济增长的头条消息交易。它需要稳定，明确的政策指引，以及一份不 会一再推迟的（印美）贸易协议。" 新华社北京12月4日电 路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度中央银行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值，主要缘于印度经济面临多重风险，包括 贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行印度储备银行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印度央行已允许卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。 印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创历史新低。 2023年4月26日，人们聚集在印度新德里的一处市场。新华社发（贾韦德·达尔摄） 消息人士说，印度央行释放容忍 ...

路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度中央银行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值，主要缘于印度经济面 临多重风险，包括贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行印度储备银行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印 度央行已允许卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创 历史新低。 消息人士说，印度央行释放容忍卢比走弱的信号表明其干预措施将主要用于抑制汇率剧烈波动或投机性 交易积聚的迹象，而非捍卫卢比的任何特定汇率水平。 其中一名不愿公开姓名的消息人士说："当基本面一切因素都对该货币不利时，消耗外汇储备没有意 义。" 另一名消息人士说，卢比兑美元汇率跌破90卢比兑换1美元这一重要心理关口引发关注，且可能助长投 机行为，但央行在必要时可以介入以打击投机行为。 路透社报道，印度是资本外流最严重市场之一，外国投资者今年以来已抛售价值170亿美元的印度股 票。与此同时，外国直接投资、贸易和离岸融资流动均放缓。 《印度教徒报》4日报道，外汇交易员认为，投资者在印度与美国贸易关系持续紧张期间将采取谨慎态 度。 CR外汇咨询公司执行董事阿米特·帕巴里说："外汇市场如今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has faced significant depreciation, hitting a historic low against the US Dollar, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to intervene in the market to stabilize the currency [1][2][4]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The Indian Rupee fell below the psychological level of 90 against the US Dollar, reaching a low of 90.058, marking a nearly 5% depreciation for the year, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia [2][4]. - As of October 2023, foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market, exacerbating the downward pressure on the Rupee [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Key reasons for the Rupee's decline include low foreign investment inflows, record trade deficits, and uncertainties surrounding the US-India trade agreement [6][7]. - India's trade deficit surged to $32.15 billion in October, the highest in 13 months, primarily due to a 28.5% drop in exports to the US from May to October [6]. Group 3: RBI's Intervention - The RBI's intervention aims to prevent further depreciation of the Rupee, with analysts expecting the central bank to actively set a ceiling for the USD/INR exchange rate [4][6]. - Despite short-term interventions, analysts suggest that the Rupee may still face further depreciation due to underlying economic pressures, including an expanding current account deficit projected to reach 1.4% of GDP this fiscal year [4][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The RBI Governor indicated that a 3% to 3.5% annual depreciation of the Rupee is normal, focusing on curbing excessive volatility rather than maintaining a specific exchange rate [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that if the US-India trade agreement remains delayed, India's GDP growth may slow down, with exports expected to decline by 5.8% in the fiscal year 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has been depreciating against the US Dollar, reaching a historic low of 89.79 on December 2, following a 0.8% decline in November, with multiple factors contributing to this trend [1][2]. Economic Performance - India's GDP growth rate for Q3 reached 8.2%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 7.3%, marking the fastest growth in six quarters [1]. - Despite strong economic data, market sentiment remains low, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and currency stability [1]. Trade Deficit - India's trade deficit surged to $32.15 billion in October, the highest in 13 months, primarily due to a sharp decline in exports to the US [1]. - Exports to the US dropped by 28.5% from May to October, falling from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion, highlighting the negative impact of tariff policies on export momentum [1]. Foreign Investment - As of October 31, foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market, exacerbating downward pressure on the Rupee [2]. - The outlook for foreign capital inflows remains bleak due to growth risks associated with tariff impacts [2]. Central Bank Intervention - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened in the currency market to stabilize the Rupee, particularly when it approached 89.70 against the Dollar, although interventions have been described as cautious and sporadic [2]. - RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das indicated that a 3% to 3.5% annual depreciation of the Rupee is normal, with the central bank focusing on curbing excessive volatility rather than maintaining a specific exchange rate [2]. Long-term Outlook - Some institutions, such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, suggest that the underlying fundamentals indicate further potential weakness for the Rupee, which may lead the RBI to allow it to breach the 90 level over time [2]. - While short-term interventions may provide some market support, reversing the overall trend remains challenging [2].

Core Insights - Bosnia and Herzegovina's total foreign trade increased by 5.6% in the first nine months of the year, reaching 35.6 billion marks [1] - Exports amounted to 12.94 billion marks (up 5.6%), while imports were 22.6 billion marks (up 4.11%), resulting in a trade deficit of 9.65 billion marks [1] - The metal industry accounted for 44% of exports, followed by the wood industry at 21%, with energy, electronics, and automotive sectors being key growth drivers [1] - Electricity imports surged by 184% year-on-year, totaling 313 million marks, highlighting structural weaknesses in the energy sector [1] - Despite over two-thirds of exports going to the EU, reliance on low-value-added products and the EU market poses significant structural challenges, necessitating the exploration of new markets such as the US and the Middle East, along with accelerating digital transformation in industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. has severely impacted India's exports, leading to a significant increase in trade deficit, while recent trade negotiations show signs of improvement [1][2][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - India's exports to the U.S. dropped from a peak of $8.8 billion in May 2025 to $5.5 billion in September 2025, resulting in a trade deficit of $32.15 billion in September, the highest in 13 months [1]. - In October, India's exports to the U.S. rebounded to $6.3 billion, a 14.5% month-on-month increase, although this still represented an 8.6% decline compared to the same month in 2024 [1][2]. - Overall, India's merchandise exports fell by 11.8% year-on-year in October, with significant declines in exports to major markets, including a drop of over 50% to Singapore and Australia, and declines exceeding 20% to Italy, the UK, and the Netherlands [2]. Group 2: Government Response - The Indian government has introduced a $5 billion export support scheme aimed at assisting exporters affected by U.S. tariffs and global trade slowdowns, focusing on small and medium enterprises and labor-intensive sectors [3]. - Efforts to diversify trade partnerships are underway, with India accelerating free trade agreement negotiations with the UK, EU, Australia, New Zealand, and Gulf countries [3]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - Recent trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have shown positive developments, particularly in energy and defense procurement, including a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) procurement agreement and a 10-year defense cooperation framework [4]. - The IMF has revised India's economic growth forecast for FY 2025/2026 upward by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6%, indicating potential for sustained economic growth contingent on improved external trade conditions [4].