英国外交大臣拉米表示，以方对加沙的行动"不可容忍"，英国政府将宣布暂停与以色列的贸易协议谈 判。拉米还并补充说，英国政府还就以色列扩大加沙军事行动召见了以色列大使。(央视新闻) ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/5/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 725.00 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 734,150 | -3527↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 36.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16926 | -3052↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） ...

包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的两位美联储官员暗示，鉴于尚不明朗的经济前景，政策制定者可能在 9月前不准备降低利率。 威廉姆斯周一在抵押贷款银行家协会组织的一次会议上表示："我们不可能在6月或7月就弄清楚发生了 什么。这将是一个收集数据、更清晰地了解情况并观察事态发展的过程。" 美联储最近的三次会议将分别在6月、7月和9月举行。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一在接受采访时也表达了类似的观点，暗示在近期内不愿调整利率。 博斯蒂克则对通胀以及公众对未来物价上涨的预期表示特别担忧。他说："考虑到我们的两项使命，我 非常担心通胀方面，主要是因为我们看到预期出现了令人担忧的变化。" 博斯蒂克表示，如果特朗普政府正在进行的贸易谈判拖延下去，"那将把（明确形势的时间）进一步推 迟到夏季，在这种情况下，我们在之后的几个月内实际上都无法知道真正的影响会是什么。" 周一早些时候，博斯蒂克指出，政策制定者需要等待"三到六个月"才能看到事情如何解决。他说，贸易 谈判仍有可能更快地取得进展，关税降幅可能超过预期。 他说："在那种情况下，我们或许能够提前采取一些行动，因为在控制物价水平方面，我们可能不需要 做那么多工作。" 威廉姆斯也继续强 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正周二表示，东京在双边贸易谈判中要求美国取消关税的立场没有改变。 他说，如果达成协议会损害国家利益，日本不会急于达成贸易协议。 由于最初的快速达成协议的希望破灭，《日本经济新闻》上周报道称，日本可能会放宽要求，改为要求 美国削减而非取消关税。 一位知情谈判的知情人士告诉表示，日本正在考虑一揽子提案以获得美国的让步，这可能包括增加美国 玉米和大豆的进口、造船领域的技术合作，以及修订进口汽车的检验标准。 赤泽亮正周二在一次例行记者会上说："包括对等关税以及针对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝等产品在 内的美国一系列关税令人遗憾。我们寻求审查并取消这些关税的立场没有改变。" 赤泽亮正表示，两国已于周一在华盛顿举行了工作层面的贸易谈判。他补充说，第三轮部长级谈判的日 程尚未确定。 日本共同社周二报道称，赤泽亮正将于本周前往华盛顿，参加可能于周五开始的第三轮谈判。 共同社援引未具名消息人士的话说，美国贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）预计将出席会谈，而财政 部长贝森特将缺席。 4月2日，美国总统特朗普对几乎所有国家征收了10%的关税，并对包括日本在内的许多主要贸易伙伴征 收了更高的关税。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. With the Fed likely not to cut rates before September, China's April economic data showing mixed signals, and inventory changes, the market's risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger. There are also concerns about a potential squeeze on short positions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain strong in the near - term due to news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness expected. Attention should be paid to Yunnan's power policies, inventory trends, and international trade frictions [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Although nickel ore prices are firm, the cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. The US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, and the Fed may not cut rates before September. China's April consumption slightly exceeded expectations, but fixed - asset investment growth was low, and the real estate market showed signs of a decline. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, Comex warehouse receipts increased by 650 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.72 tons. As copper prices rise, downstream demand may slow. The market is also concerned about a potential squeeze on short positions, so copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and positions increased. Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.62%, and positions decreased. Spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the premium on aluminum ingots widened. The news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts may drive alumina prices higher in the near - term. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with low inventory currently but potential weakening demand and cost reduction in the future. The price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,500/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.31% to 123,520 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: From May 16 to May 19, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 720 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 999 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 570 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 5,968 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased slightly. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 13,585 tons. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,175 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The price of nickel sulfate decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.15 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%. LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 302 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46].

市场消息：越南称已在华盛顿与美国展开第二轮贸易谈判。 跟踪越南市场动态 +订阅 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：工作人员本周在美国进行了贸易谈判；仍在确认下次 部长级贸易谈判的时间表。 ...

【环球时报记者 李迅典 环球时报特约记者 文简】美国政府为全球多数贸易伙伴设置的"对等关税"90天 宽限期已快过半。18日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）"会见媒体"节目采访时 表示，对于缺乏谈判诚意的贸易伙伴，美国对其征收的关税税率将恢复至最高水平。这番强硬表态引发 外媒解读，英国《金融时报》称："这表明关税谈判已变得多么紧张，与美国总统最近宣称各国正急于 与美国谈判形成了鲜明对比。" 在特朗普17日抨击沃尔玛大幅提价以应对关税的举动后，贝森特18日对NBC表示，他已与沃尔玛首席 执行官道格·麦克米伦进行交谈，"沃尔玛实际上会承担部分关税"。他同时承认，部分关税可能会转嫁 给消费者。 "中国在与美国进行关税休战会谈中表现出的强硬立场，使一些国家相信，在与美国政府的贸易谈判中 自己也需要采取更强硬的立场。"彭博社18日报道称，一周前中美发表的联合声明显示，尽管中国仍将 面临较高的关税税率，但相比此前的145%关税税率已大幅下降，"从首尔到布鲁塞尔，各国政府都感到 意外"。在中国的强硬谈判策略赢得对其暂时有利的结果后，一些国家开始质疑目前采取的外交等手段 是否有效。 彭博社称，尽管官员们不愿 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：预计今年将降息一次。如果贸易谈判进展顺利，我们可能会提前采取行动。 ...

Group 1 - Japan aims for "zero tariffs" in trade negotiations with the US, but has limited bargaining power due to structural contradictions [1] - The outlook for Japan-US trade talks is uncertain, with economic indicators in Japan showing weakness due to tariff impacts [1] - India's response to US tariffs has been to pursue bilateral trade agreements rather than retaliatory actions, indicating a shift in its trade strategy [3] Group 2 - The US has initiated a tariff war with Japan, linking defense cost-sharing to trade negotiations, which puts pressure on Japan's government [4] - The recent US-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, which has influenced Japan's stance to adopt a firmer position [6] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's strong demand for the elimination of all tariffs reflects a notable shift in Japan's diplomatic approach, garnering domestic support [9]