周五（8月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡走跌，目前交投于3410美元附近，随着市场继续评估美联储 独立性面临的威胁，并等待关键的通胀数据出炉，昨日黄金价格连续第三个交易日走高，尾盘金价一度 站上3420美元关口，最终收涨0.60%，收报3417.07美元/盎司，创五周新高。 美国彭博社周四报道称，美联储理事库克起诉美国总统特朗普，因为特朗普试图以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为 由解雇她，从而开启了一场关于美联储独立性的历史性斗争。 RJO Futures资深市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis说："我认为这在短期内有利于黄金。我预测到今年年底前 可能涨到约3700美元/盎司。" 【技术分析】 黄金目前在日线走势上继续维持在宽幅的区间震荡中，K线开始沿着短周期均线维持较好的震荡上行走 势，短期关注下3340一带的压力带。日线黄金价格在突破前期的压力带之后日内关注下有没有回踩修复 之后的二次拉升走势。 小时级别走势上目前K线走出小幅的寸头下行K线承压短周期均线维持震荡偏弱一些走势，倾向于在短 线金价走势上可能会有一定程度的调整。 4小时级别走势上目前黄金行情暂时维持在高位震荡修复，短周期均线继续维持勾头向上仍处于偏强一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices is bullish, supported by fundamental factors and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 28, international gold prices rebounded after reaching key support levels, with a closing price of $3,416.65 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of $18.48, or 0.54% [4]. - The gold price is expected to test resistance around $3,348 in the short term, with strong support from various moving averages [2]. - Despite some weakening in bullish momentum, the overall trend remains upward, with potential for new highs [4][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The dollar index has declined, which typically supports gold prices, as the market anticipates further weakness in the dollar [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. core PCE price index and consumer confidence index, are expected to influence market sentiment, although the overall expectation leans towards a bearish impact on gold [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price has maintained stability above the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating a strong bullish trend [11]. - Key support levels to watch include $3,397 and $3,380, while resistance is noted at $3,431 and $3,449 [12]. - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of adjustment, gold prices are likely to rise again, with significant support at $3,270 and $3,220 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil may shift to a volatile trend before geopolitical risks further intensify, and short - selling opportunities after the peak season should be watched [2]. - Precious metals are in a volatile trend, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - For various metals and industrial products, their prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and seasonal factors, and different trading strategies are suggested accordingly [4][5][6]. - For agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors like weather, trade policies, and supply - demand expectations, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided [34][35][36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks, and a style of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained; the yield curve of treasury bonds is expected to steepen [46][47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 0.82%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Before geopolitical risks further intensify, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp decline in oil prices, fuel - related futures also fell. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low. The overall fundamentals are relatively more positive [21]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content. Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices declined. The market is still cautious about the economic performance. High - level short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the overall decline of non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [5]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply increases while demand is weak. Although the short - term downside space is limited, one should wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and it fell back. The overall inventory is still high, and one should look for short - selling positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and international tin prices broke through the integer - level resistance and expanded their gains. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and the market trading volume shrank. It is expected to be strongly volatile in general [11]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The short - term market sentiment led to the weakening of the futures price. One should pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are approaching the lower limit of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices were weakly volatile. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is relatively low. The short - term price is still under pressure [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures were volatile overnight. The overall supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices decreased during the day. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term volatility is high [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal continued to fall. The market is cautiously bullish on Dalian soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They showed a volatile adjustment. One can consider buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term attention should be paid to soybean policy guidance [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term volatile consolidation pattern [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures rebounded last night. Given the good growth of US corn and the expected domestic harvest, the futures may continue to be weakly traded at the bottom [38]. - **Hogs**: The spot and futures prices of hogs are both weak. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to set new lows with increased positions. One can consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market lacks strong positive factors and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton should be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar has insufficient positive factors. Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price increased with increased positions. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of positive factors on the supply side in the medium - to - long - term [43]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks. The strategy of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and oil prices, highlighting the factors influencing these markets, particularly the weakening US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of August 29, the spot gold price slightly retreated to around $3410.37 per ounce after reaching a five-week high of $3423.02 on August 28, driven by a weakening dollar [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 97.85, marking its third consecutive day of decline, which made gold cheaper for international buyers and stimulated demand [1][2]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the influx of safe-haven funds have contributed to the rise in gold prices, with the market anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - The technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the significant resistance level of $3400, suggesting potential for further upward movement, although a correction may be expected soon [2][4]. - Short-term trading strategies recommend buying on dips around $3405-3408 and selling on rebounds near $3438-3440, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic data, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [2][4].

Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 4.215%, while the real yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.785% [1] - The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to President Trump's actions to influence monetary policy, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Cook, who has filed a lawsuit against Trump [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a market expectation of over 87% for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen above $3,400 per ounce, reaching a five-week high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the Fed independence dispute [2] - If gold surpasses $3,438 per ounce, the next target will be the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,422 and support at $3,300 [4] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also indicates a bullish direction with resistance at 1.1673 and support at 1.1637 [5] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include Canada's June GDP, U.S. July core PCE price index, U.S. July personal spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan consumer sentiment index [5]

Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, has increased due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and easing inflation data, leading to a rise in gold prices [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.82% to $3,476.9 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.29% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) surged by 4.51% [1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized revision showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3% [1] Group 2 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the second quarter was revised to an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but below the expected 2.6% [1] - A lawsuit was filed by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook against President Donald Trump, challenging his attempt to dismiss her based on allegations of lying in a mortgage application, marking a significant dispute regarding the independence of the U.S. central bank [1] - Analysts from Baocun Futures noted that Nvidia's third-quarter guidance was not optimistic, which may contribute to a risk premium for gold [1]

Report on Investment Analysis of Multiple Commodities 1. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market for various commodities shows a mixed picture with different factors influencing each commodity's price movement. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data releases [1][2][4]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most commodities are expected to experience short - term price fluctuations, with some showing a tendency to trade within a range, while others may have a slightly bullish or bearish bias depending on their specific fundamentals [1][4][5]. 2. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **Gold**: A lawsuit by Fed理事Lisa Cook regarding the Fed's independence could impact the market. If the Fed loses, concerns about US stagflation may increase, which is positive for gold. Fed rate - cut expectations have led to a short - term gold rebound, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [2]. - **Silver**: US Q2 GDP growth was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. After the data release, risk appetite increased, and combined with Fed rate - cut expectations, silver is expected to trade with a slightly bullish bias [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With increased end - of - month production restrictions at Tangshan steel mills, iron ore demand has decreased. Overseas shipments and arrivals have declined slightly, and port inventories are expected to increase. The price is expected to trade in a range, supported by post - parade restocking expectations [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Rebar production has increased, inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, and apparent demand has slightly recovered. The supply is high, and demand is weak. However, with compressed steel mill profits and improved export orders, the rebar futures may trade in a narrow range [5]. - **Copper (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in metals category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price movements are uncertain due to the Russia - Ukraine situation. In the long - term, the oil market faces significant supply pressure. Currently, the production increase expectation is pitted against stable inventories, and the price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11][12]. - **Natural Gas (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in energy category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: Due to expected increases in new soybean production and a weakening futures market, the spot price of soybeans is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. Policy regulation and terminal restocking demand need to be closely monitored [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil prices have dragged down the entire oil market. Despite high - volume low - price replenishment in the market, the price of palm oil is expected to experience a short - term correction and trade with a bearish bias [8]. - **Corn (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Wheat (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Rice (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Others** - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Supply is restricted by over - production checks and heavy rainfall in Shanxi, while demand is under pressure due to pre - parade environmental production restrictions at coking plants and steel mills. The price is expected to trade in a range [1]. - **Long - and Medium - term Treasury Bonds**: Multiple small and medium - sized banks have cut RMB deposit rates, which is beneficial for liquidity. In the context of increased risk appetite and a strong stock market, long - term bonds are expected to trade with a bearish bias [5]. - **Rubber**: Supply is in an increasing phase but is affected by weather, resulting in slower - than - expected growth. Demand is weak, with a decline in tire production and high inventory pressure. The price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **PTA**: PTA production and social inventories have decreased, and downstream polyester demand has shown a slight recovery. However, the sustainability of the demand increase is uncertain. Given the weakening PX supply - demand and crude oil prices, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has increased, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The inland market is weak, while the port market has stable basis and acceptable trading volume. The price is expected to trade in a range, and short - positions should be held with caution [10]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The price of LLDPE has been weak, production has decreased, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Cost support has strengthened. The price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The production of soda ash has decreased, and inventories have also declined slightly. The float glass market is stable, and downstream demand is mainly for low - price replenishment. The price of soda ash is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Live Hogs**: The shrinkage of farms has led to a slight improvement in low - price transactions. With the current low price, there is a growing sentiment of expecting a price increase. The price may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to take short - long positions. Farmers can choose the right time for hedging [6].

一场前所未有的政经风暴：特朗普解雇美联储理事，撼动百年独立根基 一、清晨推特引爆"金融风暴" 想象一下，如果有一天，美国总统突然解雇一位美联储理事，那会是怎样一番景象？这并非天方夜谭，而是真真切切地发生了。一声令下，现任美联储理事 丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）即刻走人！这绝非演习，而是美国政经领域的一场"地震"级事件。 然而，这真的是真相吗？早在2022年库克进入美联储时，国会就已对这一事件进行过详尽调查，当时并未发现任何问题。如今旧事重提，难免让人觉得这是 在"找借口"，背后另有隐情。 二、为何说这是一步"险棋"？ 美联储的特殊地位不容忽视。自1913年成立以来，它一直强调其独立性，不受政府直接干预，自主决定货币政策，自主管理理事任期。尽管美国总统有权提 名理事，但要想中途将其解雇，却难如登天。 2025年8月25日清晨，当许多美国人还沉浸在睡梦中时，特朗普在他的社交媒体上投下了一枚重磅炸弹：宣布立即解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，没有任何预 兆，没有任何流程，只有一句冰冷的"她必须走人"。给出的理由是，库克多年前在房贷申请中涉嫌"提交不实信息"，重复申报"主要居所"以获取优惠。 法律条文明确规定，除非理事存 ...

库克在起诉书中称，特朗普政府解雇她的行为"史无前例且非法"。"独立的美联储对于经济稳定至关重 要，因为总统的短期政治利益往往与健全的货币政策相冲突。" 特朗普政府指称，库克在2021年的两笔房贷申请中作出虚假陈述。美司法部表示已展开调查，但尚未公 开提出任何指控。 中新社华盛顿8月28日电(记者陈孟统)美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)28日在华盛顿地区法院提起诉 讼，称特朗普政府无权解雇自己，并向法庭申请限制令阻止解职。 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解雇库克。库克回应称，特朗普无权解雇她， 将继续履职。 库克是首位担任美联储理事的非裔女性，她于2022年5月就任现职，任期至2038年。在特朗普持续施压 美联储降息的背景下，库克提起的诉讼被美国舆论视为美联储能否维持独立性的关键事件。 库克在诉讼中辩称，白宫的指控与她在任职期间的行为无关，也未被证实，且她未获机会回应。即便相 关指控属实，也不构成解职理由。 法院29日上午将就该案举行首次听证。美联储拒绝对此发表评论，仅表示将遵守法院裁决。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...