【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：有色承压 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 4 日 【行情分析】 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜低开高走，日内偏弱。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-140 元/吨，华南现货升贴水-115 元/吨。2026 年 3 月 3 日，LME 官方价 12864 美元/吨，现货升贴水-44 美元/吨。 沪铜今日低开高走，日内偏弱。美国总统特朗普当地时间周二宣布，白宫将为穿越 霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供海军护航和政治风险保险，而伊朗称完全控制霍尔木兹海峡。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比减少 3.69 万吨，降幅为 3.13%，同比上升 7.96%，比预期值 低 0.11 万吨。预计 3 月产量环比增长 5.28 万吨，同比上升 6.51%，由于 1 月份检修企 业多在 3 月复产，且新投产冶炼厂有增产，预计 3 月份产量可能创历史新高。由于铜精 矿方面趋于短缺，故国内对于废铜需求量预计有增多，而国内政策扰动废铜产业链，随 着需求量的增长，废铜供给缺口预计靠海外进口弥补。铜价连续上行，下游终端高价抵 触情绪严重，铜材端对需求的弱化，目前行业淡季叠加高铜价，预计下游铜材表现继续 承压为主。综合来看 ...

The price of Bitcoin jumped to a two-week high near $70,000 on Monday, pushing higher alongside riskier assets as the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran entered its third day. The leading digital asset by market cap recently changed hands around $68,938, a 4.4% increase over the past day, according to CoinGecko. Some platforms, including Coinbase and CoinMarketCap, showed Bitcoin briefly rising above the $70,000 mark late Monday morning before ticking back down. Bitcoin had fallen as low as $63,10 ...

消费税减免的话题，成为本次选举的核心争论点。 日本政坛又一次进入"选举周期"。 据新华社报道，日本第51届众议院选举公告于27日发布，投票和计票将于2月8日举行，为期12天的选战 正式拉开帷幕。此次选举将围绕465个议席展开角逐，其中包括289个小选举区议席和176个比例代表选 区议席。 据媒体统计数据显示，此次有超过1200位候选人计划参选。日本首相高市早苗27日重申，如果执政联盟 （自民党与维新会）无法获得过半数席位，自己将辞去首相职务。 25日，日本公布的一项最新民调结果显示，高市早苗领导的内阁支持率出现明显下滑，较上次调查大跌 10个百分点，不支持率同步上升。对于高市解散众议院、提前大选的决定，多家日媒进行的民调显示， 反对意见均占据上风。 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学教授陈子雷在接受第一财经采访时表示，无论对于自民党本 身，还是日本的普通选民，甚至日本国家的利益与政局稳定而言，这都是一次非常不友善的解散，将给 日本社会造成巨大混乱。 街头造势开始 与议员任期6年且没有解散条款的参议院不同，日本众议院虽然有着每届4年的议员任期规定，但实际上 议员安稳做完任期的先例只有1972年选出的第33届众 ...

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon offered support for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, reiterating the importance of an independent US central bank after the Fed chair disclosed late Sunday that the Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Powell's testimony to Congress last year. "While I don't agree with everything that the Fed has done, I do have enormous respect for Jay Powell the man," Dimon said during a call with reporters following the bank's fourth quarter ...

Core Insights - Americans expressed increased concerns about the job market in December, with the outlook for finding a job being the worst since the survey began in 2013, particularly among households earning under $100,000 per year [1][2] Job Market Concerns - Job market anxieties varied in December, with expectations of a rising unemployment rate decreasing compared to the previous month, while the probability of job loss increased [2] - There was a decline in the likelihood of voluntarily leaving a job in December compared to November [2] Inflation Expectations - Households raised their near-term inflation expectations, with the one-year projection increasing to 3.4% from 3.2% in November, while three- and five-year expectations remained steady at 3% [3] - Short-term inflation expectations are volatile, but the increase in the year-ahead inflation projection aligns with rising price pressures attributed to tariff increases from the Trump administration [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% to balance job market risks against persistent inflation above the 2% target [5] - Fed officials anticipate a modest decline in the unemployment rate from 4.6% in November, alongside moderating inflation pressures that will still exceed the central bank's target [5] Household Financial Sentiment - Households reported a more positive outlook on their current and expected financial situations in December, despite facing challenges in accessing credit [6] - Expectations of missing a debt payment rose to the highest level since April 2020, indicating growing financial concerns among households [6]

Core Viewpoint - Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expresses concerns about potential rate cuts impacting inflation expectations, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy to control inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Bostic believes that cutting rates could unanchor inflation expectations, with surveys indicating firms plan to continue raising prices into 2026 [2]. - He stresses the importance of the Fed prioritizing inflation control before making further economic moves, reflecting a hawkish stance [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Risks - Bostic acknowledges the risks associated with employment and inflation, noting that there are no riskless choices in monetary policy [4]. - He highlights the potential impact of upcoming economic stimulus, including higher refunds and Fed cuts, which could influence inflation dynamics [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The recent unemployment rate data has garnered attention, with Bostic indicating that while he expected the numbers, there is concern about future trends [3].

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached new all-time highs, surpassing $4,300/oz following the final FOMC meeting and interest rate cut of 2025 [3][8] - The FOMC announced a 25 basis point cut, totaling a reduction of -0.75% in 2025, but the tone was more hawkish with dissenting votes and projections indicating only one cut in 2026 [5][7][8] - Market reactions included a volatile rally in gold prices, despite the Fed's cautious messaging, with potential implications for future trading based on upcoming economic data [4][8] Economic Data and Market Reactions - The week saw limited economic data, with focus on the FOMC decision, which initially led to profit-taking pressures in gold and equities [4] - The Fed's decision to resume Treasury paper purchases aimed to loosen financial conditions, but was accompanied by a more cautious outlook on future rate cuts [5][7] - Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data are expected to influence market expectations for 2026 monetary policy and gold price movements [8]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts expected this year [1] - The decision was not unanimous, with dissent from newly appointed Fed Governor Steven Myron, who preferred a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's economic outlook has improved, projecting GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year, while inflation is expected to remain at 3.1% this year and decrease to 2.6% next year [3][4] Rate Projections - Nine Fed officials anticipate three rate cuts this year, while six expect only one cut, and one official, presumably Myron, predicts six cuts [2] - For next year, the median expectation is for just one additional rate cut [3] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.5% this year, with a slight decrease to 4.4% next year, reflecting concerns about labor market weakness [4] - Fed officials acknowledged a slowdown in job gains and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift from previous assessments of a solid job market [4][5] Economic Conditions - The Fed is concerned about the softening labor market and its impact on consumer spending, with mixed signals regarding economic activity [7][8] - There are conflicting signals in retail sales, with nominal growth suggesting strong consumer spending, but volume declines in certain sectors indicate underlying weaknesses [16][17] Future Considerations - The Fed's approach to rate cuts is characterized by a careful assessment of incoming data and evolving economic conditions, particularly regarding labor market risks [5][26] - The potential for tax refunds and corporate incentives next year could boost consumption and growth, despite current inflationary pressures [12][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may disappoint market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on employment and inflation metrics influencing their decisions [1][5][10]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market anticipates a total of six rate cuts by the end of next year, with the terminal Fed funds rate expected to be lower than the Fed's projections [2][10]. - Recent inflation metrics have shown a broad-based reaceleration, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [5][6][7]. - The Fed is likely to adopt a measured approach, assessing economic conditions on a meeting-by-meeting basis rather than committing to aggressive cuts [4][9]. Market Reactions - If the Fed does not align with market expectations for aggressive rate cuts, there is potential for yields to rise, particularly in the 10-year Treasury [9][11]. - Financial conditions remain easy, influenced by market expectations of a lenient policy path, which could lead to an unwind if the Fed's actions do not match these expectations [11][12]. - The current market sentiment is optimistic about potential rate cuts, but uncertainty remains regarding the impact on equities if cuts are less than anticipated [10][11]. Safe Haven Assets - Gold has emerged as a preferred safe haven asset, contrasting with the dollar's performance, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [13][14].

Economic Outlook - The upcoming week is significant with the Federal Reserve meeting and the summary of economic projections expected on Wednesday, which could influence market expectations [2][5] - Retail sales data is anticipated, with core retail sales expected to increase by 0.4% month-over-month, a relatively high target that could impact rate cut expectations if met or exceeded [3][4] Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut for the Fed meeting, with a strong likelihood of at least 75 basis points worth of cuts by December [4][6] - The summary of economic projections is expected to be a major catalyst for market volatility, potentially affecting interest rate trajectories and inflation expectations [5][9] Sector Performance - Small-cap stocks, particularly the Russell 2000, are showing strong performance, nearing all-time highs, indicating a positive trend in this sector [10] - Financials are highlighted as a sector that could benefit from lower rates and increased loan demand, with recent data showing a significant spike in lending demand [11][12] China Economic Data - China's retail sales growth is reported at 3.4% year-over-year, below expectations of 3.9%, while industrial output grew by 5.2%, also below the anticipated 5.7% [14][15] - The Chinese economy is experiencing challenges, but there are signs of stabilization in equity markets, with notable performance from companies like Alibaba [17][18] Nvidia Antitrust Probe - Nvidia is facing a preliminary antitrust investigation from China regarding its 2020 acquisition of Melanex Technologies, which may impact its operations and revenue from the Chinese market [21][22] - China accounts for approximately 17% of Nvidia's total revenue for 2024, making the outcome of this investigation significant for the company's future [23]