25 basis point rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowering their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent and signaling two more rate cuts this year. The decision was not unanimous.Newly minted Fed Governor Steven Myron dissented preferring to cut by 50 basis points instead of 25. As for the breakdown for rate projections this year, nine officials seeing three rate cuts in total this year. Six officials seeing one cut, one saw no cuts, and one saw ...

Next guest warns the Fed may disappoint Wall Street when that meeting happens in about 20 hours or so. Subadra Rajapa is ahead of US race for associate general. Subra, great to have you with us.Um there does seem to be a lot of expectation built into at least 75 basis points through the end of the year. So is that where the disappointment may lie. >> Yeah, it's not just the 75 basis points up to the end of the year.You're also looking at a total of six cuts by the end of next year and the terminal Fed funds ...

Okay, I'm very pleased to say Kevin Green joins me now to take a look at what is going to be a very busy week ahead. It's already been a pretty busy old morning, particularly if you're paying attention to Truth Social today, Kevin. Uh, but let's stick with the domestics and the economic perspective here.What are you watching this week. Good morning to you. Good morning, Sam.Well, obviously we do have a lot that's going to be on the calendar this week. not only the Fed meeting and the announcement that we're ...

Core Insights - U.S. consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in September, with the Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 55.4 from 58.2 in August, marking the lowest level since May [1] - Economists had anticipated a reading of 58.0, indicating a more pessimistic outlook than expected [1] Economic Vulnerabilities - Consumers are increasingly aware of vulnerabilities in the economy, particularly regarding business conditions, labor markets, and inflation [2] - Current and expected personal finances have decreased by approximately 8% this month, reflecting concerns about economic stability [3] Inflation Expectations - The survey indicated that consumer expectations for inflation over the next year remained steady at 4.8%, while expectations for inflation over the next five years increased from 3.5% to 3.9% [3] - Trade policy, especially tariffs, continues to be a significant concern for consumers, with around 60% mentioning tariffs during interviews [3] Overall Economic Sentiment - Households have expressed a generally negative outlook on the economy for 2025, primarily due to fears that aggressive tariff measures by the government will lead to higher goods prices and reduced purchasing power [4]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 61.8 in July, the highest level in nearly five months, reflecting a 1.8% increase from June's 60.7, but a 6.9% decrease year-over-year [1][2] - The index for current conditions increased to 66.8, up 3.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, while the future expectations index rose to 58.6%, a 0.9% increase month-over-month but a 14.8% decrease year-over-year [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased to 4.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from June, and for the next five years, it fell to 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points, marking the lowest expectations since February [1] Group 2 - Despite the increase in consumer confidence, it remains 16% lower than the December figures and significantly below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability [2] - The report suggests that consumer confidence is contingent on stable future inflation conditions, with external factors like trade policies playing a crucial role [2] - Recent government policies, such as the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, have had minimal impact on consumer confidence, highlighting the complexity of consumer sentiment in relation to policy changes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by an individual regarding whether to sell gold holdings for immediate profit or to hold on for potential future gains, highlighting the volatility of gold prices and the influence of global economic factors on investment decisions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Over the past decade, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase from around 260 yuan per gram to peaks of over 830 yuan, followed by a decline to approximately 732 yuan [3][5]. - The volatility of gold prices has been around 20% over the past five years, indicating substantial risk and potential profit in gold investments [5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation expectations, and trade dynamics, heavily impact gold prices [5]. - Increased inflation pressures have made gold an attractive safe-haven asset for investors, contributing to recent price increases [5]. Group 3: Investment Dilemma - The individual is torn between selling gold for a guaranteed profit of over 150,000 yuan or holding out for potential further appreciation, reflecting a common struggle among investors [6][11]. - The advice from family members represents contrasting investment philosophies: one advocating for immediate cashing out and the other suggesting patience for long-term gains [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term vs Short-term Investment - The article raises questions about whether gold should be viewed as a long-term asset or a short-term trading tool, emphasizing the need for investors to understand their risk tolerance [8]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that future gold market performance will be influenced by ongoing political and economic uncertainties, complicating investment decisions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of various asset classes in financial markets, highlighting the recent unusual behavior of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's status as a safe haven, alongside the rise of Bitcoin as an alternative investment [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields are inversely related to bond prices, which explains the recent rise in yields as investors sell off U.S. debt [3]. - The yields serve as a benchmark for global asset pricing, influencing the valuation of various risk assets based on their credit and liquidity risks [6][7]. - Changes in U.S. Treasury yields reflect market expectations regarding the U.S. and global economic outlook, with rising yields indicating anticipated economic growth and inflation [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - U.S. Treasury yields are closely tied to Federal Reserve monetary policy, with changes in the federal funds rate directly impacting short-term yields [9][10]. - Market expectations of future Fed actions, such as rate hikes or cuts, are quickly reflected in Treasury yield movements, affecting the entire yield curve [11]. Group 3: Impact on Currency and Capital Flows - The relative level of U.S. Treasury yields significantly influences the value of the dollar, as higher yields attract international investors seeking better returns [12][13]. - Conversely, lower yields may lead to capital outflows, putting downward pressure on the dollar [14]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Investment Decisions - Rising U.S. Treasury yields enhance the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially leading to a shift of funds from equities and real estate to the bond market [14]. - In stock valuation models, Treasury yields are used as a discount rate, where increasing yields can lower the present value of future earnings, potentially leading to declining stock valuations [14]. Group 5: Importance of Monitoring Treasury Yields - For participants in global financial markets, understanding and tracking U.S. Treasury yield dynamics is essential for effective trading and investment strategies [15].

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.8 in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022, and has declined for five consecutive months [1] - The index decreased by 2.7% month-over-month and 26.5% year-over-year, falling 30% since January [1] - The current conditions confidence index fell by 3.7% month-over-month and 17.2% year-over-year, while the future conditions confidence index decreased by 1.7% month-over-month and 32.4% year-over-year [1] Group 2 - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April, while the five-year inflation expectation increased to 4.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [1] - Nearly three-quarters of consumers surveyed mentioned the impact of tariffs on the economy, indicating that uncertainty in trade policies complicates future planning [1] Group 3 - Several publicly traded companies, including Walmart, Ford, and United Airlines, have announced the cancellation or postponement of their earnings forecasts for the remainder of the year due to frequent changes in U.S. government tariff policies [2]