Core Insights - In October, global financial markets experienced increased volatility due to multiple uncertainties, while China's interbank foreign exchange market maintained stable trading volumes with a daily average trading volume of $205.18 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.30% but a month-on-month increase of 6.72% [1][2] Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The RMB exchange rate rose to a yearly high in October before experiencing fluctuations, with the exchange rate against the USD reaching a low of 7.1433 and later stabilizing around 7.11 to 7.12 [2] - By the end of October, the onshore RMB exchange rate closed at 7.1135, appreciating 0.07% compared to September, while the CFETS RMB index against a basket of currencies reported a 0.87% appreciation [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $205.18 billion in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.30% but a month-on-month increase of 6.72%, marking two consecutive months of growth [2] - The average daily trading volume for RMB in the foreign exchange market was $152.54 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.72% but a month-on-month increase of 6.30% [2] Group 3: Options and Volatility - RMB foreign exchange options trading remained stable in October, with an average daily transaction of $5.23 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.07% [3] - The implied volatility for RMB/USD options remained low, indicating stable market expectations for short-term RMB exchange rate movements [3] Group 4: Domestic and Offshore Exchange Rate Differences - The domestic foreign exchange differential gradually converged and turned positive by the end of October, with the average daily differential being -29 basis points, an increase of 25 basis points from September [4] - As of October 28, the offshore RMB (CNH) appreciated by 0.15% to 7.1164, with market participants shifting from net buying to net selling of foreign exchange by the end of the month [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The market's herd effect index in October was 61.89, a decrease of 1.01 points from September, indicating a weaker herd effect compared to the historical average [5] Group 6: Swap Points and Interest Rate Dynamics - Long-term swap points reached a three-year high in October, driven by strong market buying pressure, with the one-year swap point closing at -1287 basis points, an increase of 35 basis points from September [6][7] - The one-year swap point's increase was primarily influenced by market supply and demand factors, despite a slight decrease in interest rate factors [7]

每经编辑｜陈柯名 11月26日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率延续升值势头，盘中双双升破7.08。 同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报7.0796，较上个交易日调高30个基点。 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 美元/人民币(离) ▶ √ ◀ USDCNH 7.07370 7.07409 高 7.07421 开 7.06868 买 版 0.00509 0.07% 低 7.06539 振幅 0.12% 7.07447 分时 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 五日 更多▼ (0) 时间09:39 最新:7.07409 0.00509 +0.07200% 7.07421 +0.07% 0.00% 7.06379 -0.07% 18:00 05:59 06:00 0.00099 MACDFS(12,26,9) = 2 MACDFS:+0.000 DIFF:+0.001 DEA:+0.001 对于人民币对美元汇率的走升，中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，近期中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）稳汇率政策保持 一定力度，叠加年末、季末临近，结汇需求或阶段性 ...

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 11月27日人民币对美元中间价报7.0779元 上调17个基点 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新网11月27日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年11月27日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.0779元，上调17个基点。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 图源：中国外汇交易中心网站截图 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年11月27日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美 元对人民币7.0779元，1欧元对人民币8.2056元，100日元对人民币4.5267元，1港元对人民币0.90998元， 1英镑对人民币9.3671元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6134元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0339元，1新加坡元对 人民币5.4565元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8005元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0378元，人民币1元对1.1327澳门 元，人民币1元对0.58449马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1002俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4229南非兰 特，人民币1元对207.70韩元，人民币1元对0.51930阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53028沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.5595匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51584波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9102丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3418瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4419挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.00101土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.5931墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5538泰铢。 11月27日，人民币兑美元中间价上调17个基点， ...

（责任编辑：田云绯） 中国经济网北京11月27日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.0779，较前一交易日调升17个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年11月27日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0779元，1欧元对人民币8.2056元，100日元对人民币4.5267元，1港元对人民币0.90998 元，1英镑对人民币9.3671元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6134元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0339元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4565元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8005元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0378元，人民币1元对1.1327 澳门元，人民币1元对0.58449马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1002俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4229南 非兰特，人民币1元对207.70韩元，人民币1元对0.51930阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53028沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.5595匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51584波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9102丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3418瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4419挪威克朗 ...

在2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中，人民银行强调，要坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货 币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币对美元汇率中间价持续向偏强方向调整，这与中国经济 稳健发展，而同期美元汇率下跌有关。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，今年，在国际经济形势不确定性增加的背景下，人民币不跌反 涨，反映了中国经济回升向好、美元指数走弱等多重因素的综合影响，预计上述因素仍将对未来人民币 汇率走势形成支撑。 管涛认为，2026年人民币汇率走势或面临多重利好因素：一是国内经济回升向好，科技创新步伐进一步 加快；二是中美经贸关系趋于稳定，提振市场情绪；三是美元信用裂痕或将进一步扩大；四是美联储恢 复降息或将驱动美元走弱。 在王青看来，市场普遍预期美联储未来可能继续降息，短期内美元指数上行空间有限。而我国经济基本 面将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑，预计一段时间内人民币仍将处于稳健偏强状态。 近期，全球汇市波动加剧，而人民币对美元走势稳中偏强。11月25日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects a dual strength in both currencies, with the RMB reaching a high point not seen in over a year, supported by various economic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted upwards on November 26, reaching around 7.08, with both onshore and offshore RMB showing gains [1]. - The USD index has risen from approximately 96 in mid-September to around 100, while the RMB has shown an upward trend against the dollar, indicating a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has demonstrated resilience this year, with enhanced export strength and a favorable international balance of payments, totaling $11.6 trillion in foreign exchange receipts for the first three quarters, a historical high for the period [1]. - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border capital, surpassing the previous year's figures, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to further support the RMB's strength, alongside the traditional seasonal peak for currency settlement at year-end [2]. - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable amid complex international conditions, with a general expectation for the RMB to maintain stability or even appreciate in the near term [2]. - Companies are increasingly adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, improving their risk management capabilities, which is expected to solidify the foundation for a stable RMB exchange rate [2].

9月以来，人民币对美元汇率曾数次升破7.10。尽管此次能否打破这一关键阻力点位尚需观察，但支撑人民币走强的因素不断积累。 11月26日，人民币对美元中间价再度上调，创逾一年高点；在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双走高至7.08附近。近一段时间以来，人民币与美元呈现"双 强"格局，美元指数从9月中旬的96左右走强至100附近；同期人民币对美元汇率震荡上行，反映人民币对一篮子汇率的CFETS人民币汇率指数同样走强，与众多非美 货币相比走出独立行情。 从基本面看，今年以来，我国经济顶住压力，出口韧性进一步增强，国际收支状况良好。前三季度涉外收支总规模为11.6万亿美元，创历史同期新高；跨境资金净 流入1197亿美元，高于上年同期水平。从外汇市场预期和供需情况看，中美元首釜山会晤以来，两国关系总体稳定向好，这为人民币汇率保持坚挺提供了有力的外 部支撑，外汇市场预期保持基本稳定。企业等主体在汇率波动过程中呈现"逢高结汇"特征。前10月，银行结售汇顺差809亿美元，而去年同期逆差超1000亿美元，结 汇规模大于售汇规模，有助于人民币维持偏强水平。 美联储12月降息预期再度升温，这一因素也会支撑人民币汇率走强。而年末是传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and a basket of currencies highlights a unique trend in the global foreign exchange market, with the RMB reaching new highs not seen in over a year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Performance - The RMB has shown resilience against the US dollar, breaking through significant levels, with onshore and offshore RMB both surpassing 7.08, reaching 7.0786 and 7.07559 respectively [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, marking an annual increase of over 1000 basis points [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - Analysts attribute the RMB's strong performance to both domestic and external factors, including robust economic indicators and increased capital inflows, as well as a weaker US dollar due to declining economic data [3][4]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a favorable trade balance and increased demand for currency conversion, driven by strong export performance and a recovering domestic capital market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that the RMB will maintain a strong position, with potential fluctuations influenced by the US dollar's performance and domestic economic policies [5][6]. - Seasonal factors, such as the traditional peak for currency conversion in the fourth quarter, are expected to provide additional support for the RMB's value [6][7].

从国内环境来看，一方面，经济基本面对于人民币汇率以托底作用为主。今年前三季度，国内经济整体 呈现生产端表现较好、内需有待进一步提振的特征。展望2026年，以出口为例，根据WTO最新发布的 《全球贸易展望（十月版）》，高关税环境下其预测2026年全球贸易量或仅同比增长0.5%。其中，北 美洲和南美洲的贸易量预计仍是同比下跌，亚洲和非洲的贸易量则与2025年持平，欧洲的贸易量有望维 持增长。基于此，笔者认为全球贸易政策仍面临一定的不确定性，相关挑战不容忽视。不过，贸易伙伴 结构的多元化发展和以AI相关商品为代表的出口也将带来结构性亮点。一系列稳增长政策也将对人民 币汇率产生积极影响。 明明 周昀锋（中信证券FICC组） 11月26日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中升破7.08关口，最高至7.0788，创下2024年10月中旬以来的盘中 新高。 从外部形势来看，人民币汇率面对的外部环境整体相对友好。2025年前十个月，在美国政府关税政策扰 动、美国经济基本面和美联储货币政策预期波动，以及全球"去美元化"趋势等因素的相互交织下，美元 指数偏弱运行，整体呈现"先下、后震荡"的趋势。截至2025年11月25日，美元指数年内下跌 ...