Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly increased to 247,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1] - The four-week average of initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, indicating a prolonged reemployment period for unemployed individuals [1] - Employers announced 93,816 layoffs in May, a 12% decrease from April but a 47% increase compared to the same month last year, reflecting economic pressures on companies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm labor productivity in Q1 decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a larger decline than the previously reported 0.8%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 [2] - Unit labor costs rose by 6.6% year-on-year in Q1, higher than the previously reported 5.7%, indicating increased labor costs for businesses [2] - Economic uncertainty due to tariffs is causing companies in sectors like airlines, retail, and automotive to withdraw or not issue financial guidance for 2025 [2]

经济学家：关税不确定性仍存，欧洲央行可能进一步降息 金十数据6月5日讯，经济学家David Rea表示，考虑到与关税相关的不确定性仍存，现在就断言欧洲央 行货币宽松周期的结束需要极大的勇气。6月份的降息在很大程度上已被市场消化，但如果没有美国的 贸易政策，这个决定就不会那么明确了。欧元区的通胀率很低，但价格压力并没有完全从系统中消失， 这从4月份核心通胀的大幅上升中就可以看出这一点。Rea表示，在正常情况下，这很可能导致欧洲央 行管委会暂停货币宽松政策。今年晚些时候进一步降息将发出一个明确的信号，即政策制定者认为经济 将需要更多刺激措施才能维持下去。 ...

美联储于昨晚（六月四号）发布的2025年5月的褐皮书，基于其12个地区联储收集的最新经济信息，为 我们描绘了一幅当前美国经济的复杂图景。 作为美联储货币政策决策的重要参考，这份报告的定性观察往往能提供比硬数据更细致、更贴近地面的 经济感受。 本次报告的核心信息显示，美国经济活动自上次报告以来普遍呈现放缓迹象，而持续高企的经济和政策 不确定性，特别是与关税相关的因素，正成为企业和家庭决策的关键阻力。 报告指出，整体经济活动自上次报告以来略有下降。虽然有三个地区报告轻微增长，但半数地区报告了 轻微至温和的下降，另有三个地区报告无变化。 这种普遍的放缓态势，与各地区普遍报告的经济和政策不确定性升高密切相关。企业和家庭在这种环境 下变得更加犹豫和谨慎，推迟了招聘、投资和消费等重要决策。 在劳动力市场方面，褐皮书显示整体就业水平变化不大。 然而，报告中的细节描绘了一个正在降温的市场： 多数地区劳动力需求下降，表现为工时和加班减少、招聘暂停以及裁员计划的出现。尽管普遍裁员情况 并不严重，但员工流失率的降低和职位申请者数量的增加，都印证了劳动力供需关系的转变。 工资继续以温和速度增长，且普遍的工资压力有所缓解，这对于缓解服 ...

新订单指数暴跌5.9点至46.4，创近一年最大降幅；反映业务活跃度的指标骤降3.7点至50，为五年最低 美国服务业活动近一年来首次陷入萎缩区间，需求突然回落的同时，价格压力加速攀升——新一轮对等关税的冲击波正在全美经济中扩散。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三表示，美国非制造业PMI降至49.9，跌破50大关，也是自2024年6月以来的最低水平。这一数值弱于彭博调查中除两位经济学 家外的所有预测，新订单指标创下2024年6月以来最大跌幅，而支付价格指数则飙升至2022年末以来的最高水平。 数据显示，需求"急冻"与通胀"高烧"并存： 数据公布后，美国2年期至10年期国债收益率跌至5月9日以来的最低水平。标普500指数涨幅收窄。 ISM调查委员会主席史蒂夫·米勒（Steve Miller）表示："当前指数并非严重萎缩的信号，而是反映了企业对长期关税不确定性的普遍焦虑。受访者持续抱怨 难以制定计划，许多公司正推迟或减少订单，直至政策影响明朗化。" 随着企业重构供应链，供应商交货时间延长，但库存情绪指数却飙升至62.9（近11个月高点），预示未来数月制造业可能承压。就业指数微升1.7点至50.7， 显示招聘近乎停滞。" ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程月报 金融工程月报 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 04 日 新一轮不确定性上行周期或开启 ——2025 年 6 月大类资产配置月报 核心观点 关税风险+美债利率上行风险，新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启，风险资产或将面临 一定调整压力，建议逢低配置黄金以提高组合防御性。 ❑ 关税风险+美债利率上行风险，新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启。 4 月初美国对等关税政策宣布后，全球风险资产巨震，而后随着关税的部分暂停 及谈判的推进，A 股、美股、铜等主要大类资产均已基本修复对等关税以来的跌 幅，并于 5 月 15 日前后开始窄幅震荡，等待进一步的催化。短暂平静后，我们认 为新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启：一方面，90 天的关税暂停窗口期即将于 7 月初结束，而目前美国尚未与除英国外的主要经济体达成贸易协定，由于关税暂 停窗口是否会继续延长仍存不确定性，随着时间推进，市场可能将逐步开始交易 关税不确定性的新一轮走高。另一方面，美债利率的上行风险似乎更加迫在眉睫。 5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法院裁定暂停特朗普政府于 4 月 2 日宣布的对等关税政 策，虽然后续迅速反转，但美债市场的初期表现隐 ...

什么是关税不确定性下的最佳决策？20250602 摘要 2025 年一季度半钢胎开工率虽高于去年同期，但 4 月对等关税落地后， 开工率降至去年水平，5 月汽车零部件关税出台后进一步下滑，表明关 税负面影响持续显现，对轮胎行业产生直接冲击。 美国消费者受关税不确定性影响，3 月耐用品订单激增后补库趋缓，4 月同比增速降至年内最低，显示消费行为趋于谨慎，企业应关注库存管 理和需求变化，及时调整生产和销售策略。 一季度美国进口量占消费支出比例升至近 13%，工业品进口同比增长 53%，能源进口未明显增长，黄金囤积量大，消费品进口增加以规避关 税，汽车及零部件进口负增长，反映全球贸易格局变化。 国内经济 5 月提前进入淡季，沥青、水泥磨机开工率等数据回落，螺纹 钢需求下降，基建相关行业表现疲软，但国债和新增专用债发行或将推 动基建发展，需关注政策支持力度。 二季度以来，切片开工率下滑，PTA 价格低位震荡，一手房销售回升至 去年同期水平，但二手房市场表现不佳，螺纹钢期货价格跌破 3,000 元/ 吨，表明经济下行压力加大，企业应谨慎应对。 Q&A 美国近期关税政策的变化对中国出口和美国进口分别意味着什么？ 美国近期 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has been actively engaging in net liquidity injection operations to maintain a balanced and slightly loose funding environment in the market [1][13] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, reaching a high of 1.73% before retreating to 1.70%, with an overall increase of approximately 1 basis point for the week [1][5] - The upcoming week will see over 1.6 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with a significant decrease in net government bond payments expected [1][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for government bonds showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 4.96 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 0.7 basis points [2][3] - The issuance of interest rate bonds last week totaled 61 issues amounting to 394.21 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to previous weeks [6] - The upcoming week is set to see the issuance of 32 interest rate bonds totaling 434.89 billion yuan, including 2.76 billion yuan in government bonds [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a sell-off in May, with yields across various maturities rising by over 20 basis points, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with potential risks of rising unemployment and inflation [11][12] - Analysts suggest that the widening yield spread between 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries reflects concerns over the safety of long-term bonds, with expectations of limited interest in purchasing them unless credible fiscal signals are provided [12]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is currently facing uncertainty and volatility, particularly due to trade tariffs impacting the U.S. economy, yet Advance Auto Parts has managed to adapt and show resilience in this challenging environment [1][2]. Company Performance - Advance Auto Parts stock experienced a significant rally of 41.7% following the announcement of its latest quarterly earnings, despite the earnings figures not justifying such a reaction [3][4]. - All performance metrics for Advance Auto Parts, including revenue, gross profit margins, and operating income, were down over the past 12 months, yet management's performance exceeded bearish expectations during tariff uncertainties [4][6]. Management Strategy - Unlike many competitors in the retail sector, Advance Auto Parts maintained its financial guidance and forecasts, signaling confidence to investors [5][6]. - The company reported a net outflow of $156 million from operations, a significant change from the net inflow of $3 million in the same quarter last year, attributed to a $114 million investment in inventories to secure pre-tariff prices [8][9]. Competitive Advantage - This strategic investment in inventory may provide Advance Auto Parts with a pricing power advantage over competitors, allowing it to offer better prices to consumers as tariff costs rise [10]. - Analysts, including Michael Lasser from UBS Group, have responded positively to the company's management actions, raising the valuation target for Advance Auto Parts stock from $36 to $50 per share [11][12]. Market Sentiment - The short interest in Advance Auto Parts stock has declined by 3.8% over the past month, indicating that bearish sentiment may be priced in, suggesting potential for the stock to perform well in the automotive parts sector [13].

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - On May 27, LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with prices reaching a two-week high earlier in the session [1] - LME three-month copper closed down $13.50 or 0.14% at $9,596.5 per ton, after hitting a peak of $9,640 since May 14 [1] - U.S. Comex copper dropped 2% to $4.74 per pound, with a premium over LME copper reaching $855 per ton [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Ivanhoe Mines announced a suspension of its production forecast due to seismic activity at its giant mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is Africa's largest copper producer [6] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicated that if the Kakula mine remains closed for the rest of the year, it could lead to a supply reduction of approximately 150,000 tons, potentially increasing copper prices [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market surplus of 17,000 tons in March, down from an 18,000-ton surplus in February [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to April, profits of large industrial enterprises in China totaled 21,170.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6] - In April, profits of large industrial enterprises in China grew by 3.0% year-on-year [6] - ICSG noted that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons in the first three months of the year, compared to a surplus of 268,000 tons in the same period last year [8]

步入年中，黄金市场多空力量激烈博弈，尽管短期价格波动加剧，但从基本面到政策面，多重利好因素 正为黄金的长期价值提供坚实支撑。当前金价震荡格局为投资者提供了绝佳的布局窗口，皇御贵金属平 台(bibgw.top/XZMPz8)同步推出如"免费领取18美元"、"自助申请50000美元赠金"、"交易回赠$26/手点 差"等多重新客福利，助投资者轻松布局，抓取行情红利！ 1. 地缘风险与关税不确定性"双保险" 全球地缘时政局势持续紧张，中东冲突反复、俄乌和谈进展缓慢，叠加市场对"全球贸易战2.0"的担忧 不断升温。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔近期坦言"关税对经济的影响远超预期"，进一步加剧了市场对 政策不确定性的焦虑。历史经验表明，地缘冲突与贸易摩擦的叠加效应往往推动资金涌入黄金，使其成 为对冲风险的核心工具。 A：新客登录用户中心，激活交易账户，并一键参与积分活动，达标可领取1800积分福利！ Q：通过什么方式获得赠金？ 2. 降息预期与美元信用的长期角力 尽管美联储5月会议维持利率不变，但美国经济数据疲软、债务率攀升至124%，因此市场仍押注年内降 息1-2次。在降息预期下，实际利率下行将直接削弱美元吸引力，而黄金作 ...