每日晨报 2025年6月 13 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 5 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.1% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:等待美国通胀温和上行,注意企业也承担了部分涨价--5 月美国 CPI 数据。全年来看,关税下的美国价格走势可能有以下几点特征:(1)从短期 的 CPI 和 PCE 价格数据来看,关税造成的涨价尚不明显,但我们认为这更多 是统计抽样和部分抢进口形成的库存所导致的涨价滞后,高频数据显示涨价已 经发生。(2)尽管通胀将在 2025下半年显现,但我们认为考虑关税的情况下 CPI 的年均同比增速将由 2.4%提升至 3.1%左右,高点可能为 3.4%, 2026 年 中开始可能回落至2.5%左右的范围,其"暂时性"并不阻碍美联储在年内考 虑降息。(3)从对企业的调查来看,企业也将负担部分关税成本,这一方面 意味着消费者价格上行压力缓和,另一方面企业利 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May fell slightly below expectations, with year-on-year CPI rising from 2.3% to 2.4%, while core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous value of 0.2%, and core CPI also rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2% [1] - Factors contributing to the CPI's lower-than-expected performance include a decline in energy prices, a continued drop in automobile prices, and a slowdown in rent and super core services price increases [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, and the probability of a first cut in September rising from 50.9% to 61.3% [2] - The effective tariff rate in the US has decreased to 7.07%, significantly lower than the estimated 13-20% by overseas institutions, potentially due to tax avoidance measures [3] - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the first sale price, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain, with the potential for upward inflation risks unless tariffs are continuously suspended or canceled [5] - Consumer inflation expectations in the US have surged, with one-year and five-year expectations at near 45-year and 25-year highs, respectively [5] - Despite a significant number of brands and retail executives anticipating negative consumer reactions to price increases, a majority still plan to raise prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].

策略师：低于预期的CPI令人宽慰 但关税通胀"定时炸弹"仍存 金十数据6月11日讯，Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，今日低于预期的通胀 数据确实令人宽慰，但仅限于一定程度。关税驱动的价格上涨可能还需数月才会完全体现在CPI数据 中，现在就断言价格冲击不会到来还为时尚早。 ...

正文 来源：招商宏观静思录 事件 当地时间2025年5月7日，美联储召开议息会议，维持联邦基金目标利率区4.25%-4.50%不变，缩表节奏保持不变。 核心观点 总体来看，本次会议表态偏鹰，符合预期。鲍威尔用剔除抢进口后的GDP和目前接近充分就业状态证明当前经济表现本身就暗示鹰派立场，对于关税通 胀，鲍威尔更倾向是一次性的，但如果关税持续大幅增加，关税对通胀的影响可能会更持久。考虑到2021年鲍威尔曾误判当时美国通胀是"暂时性的"，因 此本轮美联储调整货币政策立场可能会更加谨慎。 降息必要条件是不确定性消除，关税通胀有更准确的预估，充分条件则是就业风险增加和通胀预期稳定。鲍威尔在答记者问时指出等到6月才能对降息路 径有所预估，已经暗示6月大概率不会降息。今年尤其是3月以来鲍威尔表态持续偏鹰，鲍威尔一方面肯定了当前经济仍然稳健，另一方面指出不确定性导 致的通胀和失业率双高风险增加。在贸易谈判有进一步明确的结果之前，美联储的最优做法还是观望等待、数据依赖。 资产方面，本次议息会议略鹰派，但Q2不降息已在市场预期内，更值得关注的则是特朗普撤销了拜登任内发布且本将在5月15日生效的《AI扩散框架》以 及贝森特寻求对华 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 05 月 08 日 比议息会议更重要的两个信息 —5 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 5 月 7 日，美联储召开议息会议，维持联邦基金目标 利率区 4.25%-4.50%不变，缩表节奏保持不变。 总体来看，本次会议表态偏鹰，符合预期。鲍威尔用剔除抢进口后的 GDP 和 目前接近充分就业状态证明当前经济表现本身就暗示鹰派立场，对于关税通 胀，鲍威尔更倾向是一次性的，但如果关税持续大幅增加，关税对通胀的影响 可能会更持久。考虑到 2021 年鲍威尔曾误判当时美国通胀是"暂时性的"， 因此本轮美联储调整货币政策立场可能会更加谨慎。 降息必要条件是不确定性消除，关税通胀有更准确的预估，充分条件则是就业 风险增加和通胀预期稳定。鲍威尔在答记者问时指出等到 6 月才能对降息路径 有所预估，已经暗示 6 月大概率不会降息。今年尤其是 3 月以来鲍威尔表态持 续偏鹰，鲍威尔一方面肯定了当前经济仍然稳健，另一方面指出不确定性导致 的通胀和失业率双高风险增加。在贸易谈判有进一步明确的结果之前，美联储 的最优做法还是观望等待、数据依赖。 点评报告 相关报 ...

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 当前的关税和2018年在多个维度上不存在可比性：一是全面的关税带来了明显的金融通缩（压低盈利 预期、侵蚀估值水平、引发去杠杆化以及信贷条件紧缩），二是陡增的关税水平很难由任何一方独自承 担（出口商、进口商、消费者）。 在 美国经济的供需两端都面临"涨价约束"的情况下，美国的关税通胀可能被高估。 首先是需求端，消费者信心预期已经跌破数年来的低点。 而在消费者信心指数出现向下拐点之前， 美国耐用品的前置消费就已发生，说明当时的消费数据已经 包含了部分关税预期。 居民部门的提前囤货反映出他们对于潜在关税的敏感，这意味着消费者可能不会为高关税买单，而是会 选择直接减少消费。 在消费信心疲软且车贷利率高企的背景下，3月美国汽车消费录得了4年来的新高，反映出消费者对于 即将征收汽车关税的规避，未来需求将不可避免地快速回落。 关税是需求紧缩政策：既可以看作是财政紧缩（美国私人部门承担关税），也可以看 作是货币紧缩（非美私人部门承担关税）。 当前的消费放缓不仅包括商品消费的前置和 消费信心的下降，还包括服务消费的自然下行。 比如 美国 本土出行旅游等非必要消费的下降， 酒店入住率持续下行且同比 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a need for cautious observation of tariff-induced inflation, diminishing the positive impact of March's low inflation data on financial markets[4] - In March, the US CPI for goods (excluding food and energy) showed a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, with year-on-year growth at 0.0%[4] - Tariff-sensitive goods like household appliances and furniture saw year-on-year price adjustments of -2.5% and -1.8%, respectively[4] Market Reactions - Following the release of economic data, the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield dropping to around 3.8% and the 10-year yield fluctuating around 4.3%[5] - The stock market indices adjusted downwards, while the US dollar index weakened after a brief recovery[5] Policy Implications - Post-tariff, there is an urgent need for domestic demand expansion policies, with potential new measures expected from the upcoming political bureau meeting[6] - The highest expected tariff rates will see a 90-day delay for reciprocal tariffs on most countries, with significant exemptions for electronic products, indicating a marginal improvement in tariff impacts[6] Historical Context - An analysis of the 2018 bond market during US-China trade tensions shows a general downtrend in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield declining by 65 basis points over the year[7] - The bond market's response to tariff announcements was significant, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.5% following the announcement of tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods[8] Real Estate Outlook - The real estate market is characterized by strong demand in high-tier cities and weakening demand in lower-tier cities, with potential acceleration in existing policy implementations[16] - A decrease in mortgage rates could stimulate demand for new and second-hand homes, aiding in price stabilization[17] Banking Sector Considerations - The banking sector is expected to benefit from domestic policy adjustments aimed at countering external pressures, with a focus on the internationalization of the RMB in the long term[18] - The current economic environment presents a historical opportunity for RMB internationalization, particularly as US trade policies may undermine the dollar's global status[19]