Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1 - If inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to resume easing measures in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The process of inflation returning to the 2% target is already more than halfway complete [1] Group 1: Inflation Insights - It is not possible to isolate the impact of tariffs on inflation issues [1] - Service inflation has significantly slowed down, while goods inflation is on the rise [1] - The current observed tariff inflation is just the beginning [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们现在看到的是关税通胀的非常初期阶段。 ...

美国财长贝森特：重申美联储在关税通胀问题上（的分析）错了。希望美联储能够展现"一点想象力"。 预计今天不会降息。重申市场正在消化美联储降息（预期）。 ...

预计今天不会降息。 美国财长贝森特：重申美联储在关税通胀问题上（的分析）错了。 希望美联储能够展现"一点想象力"。 重申市场正在消化美联储降息（预期）。 ...

7月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加1.8万人，6月增加1.4万人； 7月金融服务业就业人数增加2.8万人，6月减少1.4万人； 周三的数据显示，美国私人部门就业人数增加了10.4万人，增幅为3月以来最大，市场预期增加7.5万 人。6月ADP新增就业人数从-3.3万人上修为-2.3万人。 从细分项来看： 7月建筑业就业人数增加1.5万人，6月增加0.9万人； 7月制造业就业人数增加0.7万人，6月增加1.5万人； 尽管服务业复苏带动了招聘人数的增长，但教育和卫生行业除外，今年迄今为止这两个行业的就业岗位 出现了净流失。 尽管7月份的数据好于预期，但私人部门的招聘速度仍远低于去年平均水平。由于围绕特朗普总统政策 的经济不确定性增加，雇主在人员配置决策上变得更加谨慎。重复申请失业保险的数据表明，失业人员 找到新工作所需的时间越来越长，即便首次申请失业金人数仍然保持在低位。 美国劳工统计局定于本周五公布的7月就业报告，预计将显示就业增长放缓，失业率上升。该报告将包 含政府部门的就业数据。 美联储官员一直密切关注劳动力市场的持续下降，该议题很可能成为美联储为期两天的政策会议的主要 焦点，本次会议将于本周四凌晨结束。 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total amount of silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,211,076 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,009 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][3] - The main silver futures opened at 9,110 CNY per kilogram, reached a high of 9,282 CNY per kilogram, and a low of 9,095 CNY per kilogram, closing at 9,273 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.36% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Debate - A rare policy dispute is occurring within the Federal Reserve, with Governor Cook expressing a hawkish stance, warning that tariffs are pushing up consumer prices and necessitating restrictive policies to curb inflation expectations [2] - In contrast, San Francisco Fed President Daly advocates for two rate cuts by the end of the year, arguing that the actual impact of tariffs is milder than expected and cautioning against over-tightening that could harm the job market [2] - Governor Waller proposed a surprising view that a 25 basis point rate cut should occur in July, citing three compelling reasons: the temporary nature of tariff inflation, economic growth below potential, and hidden risks in the job market [2]

Group 1 - The recent U.S. economic data indicates that tariff policies are beginning to show signs of inflation in prices, marking the first time such signals have been captured in official data [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed an annual increase from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June, leading to a brief sell-off in the bond market [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June reported zero growth, stabilizing the market after the CPI report [1][2] Group 2 - Core consumer prices, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June, the largest monthly increase since 2022, with notable increases in home goods and appliances [2] - PIMCO suggests that the CPI data may support the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating room for potential rate cuts in September and beyond [2] - The PCE price index is expected to reach 2.8% in June and potentially 3% in July, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] Group 3 - Current bond market sentiment views the inflation caused by tariffs as a "temporary adjustment" that will be absorbed in a few months, with prices expected to stabilize near the Fed's target [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.45%, which is considered attractive for investors [3][4] - Despite recent tariff-related news, the U.S. Treasury market has remained stable, with the 10-year yield fluctuating within a narrow range of 15 basis points [3]

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[1] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[1] Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs was evident in June, with furniture prices rising by 1% (previously 0.3%), clothing by 0.4% (previously -0.4%), and entertainment goods by 0.8% (previously 0.4%)[3] - It is estimated that tariffs have contributed 14% to CPI if core prices remained at February levels, and 40% if they followed last year's declining trend[4] Future Tariff Effects - Assuming the overall tariff rate increases to 17.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core prices could add approximately 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to a 0.5-0.54 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] - If the remaining tariff effects manifest over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could reach 3.2% and 3.3% in Q3 and Q4, respectively[10] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from 1.93 to 1.76 for the year[1] - The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 60.1% to 55%, while year-end policy rate expectations rose from 3.846% to 3.89%[1]

Group 1: Inflation and CPI Data - In June, the US CPI increased year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] - The proportion of CPI items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rose from 40.8% to 44.1%, indicating a broadening inflationary trend[24] Group 2: Tariff Impact on CPI - The estimated impact of tariffs on CPI shows that if core goods prices remained at February levels, the tariff effect could account for 14% of CPI; if prices followed last year's downward trend, the effect could be 40%[4] - The remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core goods prices is estimated to be around 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to an overall CPI impact of 0.5-0.54 percentage points[23] - For specific high-import-dependency goods, tariffs have been reflected in CPI as follows: toys and games (52%), furniture (70%), clothing (10%) if prices remained at February levels[18] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76, and the probability of a September cut dropping from 60.1% to 55%[2] - Bloomberg's consensus forecast for year-on-year CPI in Q3 and Q4 is 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, reflecting the anticipated impact of remaining tariffs[23]