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锰硅周报:关注中美双边贸易磋商及两国元首会晤,注意短期黑色板块风险-20251025
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-25 13:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a non - pessimistic view on the future of the black sector. Instead of short - selling, it suggests that finding a retracement point to go long may be more cost - effective. However, in the short term, attention should be paid to the potential "negative feedback" risk caused by high supply, low demand, and the decline in steel mill profitability [15][97]. - The outcomes of the Sino - US bilateral trade consultations and the meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC summit could impact the sentiment in the commodity market. Positive signals may improve market sentiment [15][97]. - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trends of the black sector, with their fundamentals lacking significant contradictions and drivers [15][97]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM601) was 5772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 2.35%, at a relatively neutral historical level [14][20]. - Manganese silicon production profits remained low, with losses in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. The production cost increased slightly in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and remained stable in Guangxi [14][25][30]. - Manganese silicon weekly output decreased slightly, while the weekly output of rebar increased. The daily average hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The visible inventory of manganese silicon increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory decreased slightly [14]. - The market is advised to focus on the Sino - US bilateral trade consultations and the meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC summit. There is a short - term "negative feedback" risk in the black sector due to high supply and low demand [15]. 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM601) was 5772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 2.35%, at a relatively neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit (excluding depreciation) remained low. Inner Mongolia had a profit of - 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia had a profit of - 415 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week; and Guangxi had a profit of - 700 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [25]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 5995 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Guangxi, it was 6350 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [30]. - In August, the manganese ore import volume was 308.49 tons, down 40.11 tons month - on - month and up 35.71 tons year - on - year. As of October 17, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 436.4 tons, down 9.3 tons week - on - week [33][36]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.74 tons, down 0.14 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.32%. In September 2025, the monthly output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month [44]. - HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in October 2025 was 16,500 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 4500 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - The weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.27 tons, up 0.16 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.07 tons, up 5.91 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75% [60][63]. 3.1.5. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.31 tons, up 2.44 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month [71][77]. - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 29.3 tons, up 3.05 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated slightly upward, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98%. On the daily chart, it was still within the trading range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton and approached the downward trend line since July. Attention should be paid to the support near 5600 yuan/ton and the direction at the trend line [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.80% [95]. - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 31.1 tons, down 1.66 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 5.07% [95]. - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 13.04 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month [95]. - The basis of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 108 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 1.91%, at a neutral historical level [96]. - Ferrosilicon production profits remained in the red. The estimated production cost in the main producing areas was relatively stable [96]. - HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in October 2025 was 2956 tons, down 195 tons month - on - month and up 920 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton month - on - month [97]. - The ferrosilicon market is likely to follow the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [97]. 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF601) was 5542 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 1.91%, at a neutral historical level [102]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - As of October 24, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 586 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 413 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Qinghai, it was - 400 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week [107]. - The price of silica in the northwest region remained stable, while the price of semi - coke small pieces increased by 50 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in the main producing areas was relatively stable [110][113]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.4 tons, up 0.13 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.47%. In September 2025, the monthly output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month [118]. - HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in October 2025 was 2956 tons, down 195 tons month - on - month and up 920 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75%. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7350 tons, down 390 tons month - on - month and 360 tons year - on - year [127]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.80%. China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 31.1 tons, down 1.66 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 5.07% [95]. 3.2.5. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 13.04 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month [142][145]. 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rise slightly, with a weekly increase of 112 yuan/ton or 2.06%. On the daily chart, it was still within the trading range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton and faced short - term pressure after touching the downward trend line since July. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction at the trend line [150].
市委理论学习中心组召开学习会 压实责任扎实抓好安全生产工作 筑牢防线全面提升本质安全水平 马明龙主持并讲话
Zhen Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-10-25 00:22
Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of safety production as a critical aspect of development and public welfare, urging a comprehensive approach to enhance safety levels and responsibilities [1][2]. Group 1: Safety Production Responsibilities - The city must enhance the sense of responsibility regarding safety production, aligning with Xi Jinping's important directives, and prioritize the safety of people's lives and property [1][2]. - A proactive approach is necessary to prevent risks and hazards, focusing on early detection and resolution of potential issues [2]. Group 2: Action Plans and Mechanisms - The city will deepen the inspection and rectification of hidden dangers, advancing a three-year action plan for safety production, and conduct a "100-day offensive" to identify and eliminate safety risks [2]. - There is a need to improve emergency response mechanisms to ensure swift and effective handling of unexpected situations [2]. Group 3: Enhancing Safety Awareness and Governance - The city aims to strengthen grassroots safety governance and enhance the professionalism of regulatory forces through information technology [2]. - Increasing public awareness of safety production is essential to build a robust safety defense line [2]. Group 4: Accountability and Responsibility - All levels of government and industry leaders are urged to take responsibility for safety production, ensuring that duties are clearly defined and executed [2]. - Business entities must implement safety production responsibilities, conducting self-inspections and rectifying identified hazards [2].
山东省地矿局第八地质大队召开2025年第四季度安委会例会
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-10-24 11:02
Core Points - The meeting focused on summarizing safety production achievements in the first three quarters and analyzing winter safety risks, with a strong emphasis on achieving zero accidents by the end of the year [1][3][4] Group 1: Safety Production Goals - The organization aims to achieve a "zero accident" target for the year, emphasizing the importance of safety during the fourth quarter, which is a critical period for project completion and has a higher risk of accidents [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for a comprehensive approach to safety, integrating the "Three-Year Action Plan for Safety Production" and the "Six-Five Special Rectification" initiatives [3] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Key strategies include monitoring extreme weather risks with a daily consultation mechanism, implementing preventive measures against freezing, slipping, and collapses [3] - Emphasis on traffic safety management, including strict vehicle management and driver qualification checks, as well as a "pre-departure confirmation" mechanism for project leaders [3] - Special attention is given to high-risk operations, with mandatory inspections of equipment before winter and enhanced monitoring of hazardous work sites [3] Group 3: Responsibility and Accountability - The meeting stressed the importance of a clear responsibility chain, ensuring that both party and government officials are accountable for safety, and promoting on-site inspections by leadership [4] - The organization plans to enhance safety through technology by accelerating the application of safety production supervision platforms to improve risk warning and emergency response capabilities [4] Group 4: Overall Commitment - A call to action was made for all team members to adopt a cautious and proactive approach to ensure safety, thereby supporting the high-quality development of the geological mining sector [4]
山东能源唐口煤业:打好提质增效攻坚战
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-10-24 07:47
Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on safety production, lean management, and performance incentives to enhance quality and efficiency, driving sustainable development [1] Group 1: Safety Production - Safety is prioritized as the foundation of production and efficiency, with ongoing improvements in safety risk management and hazard identification [2] - The company conducts weekly safety inspections and implements a "five determinations" principle for problem rectification, ensuring a safe working environment [2] - Emphasis is placed on identifying hazards during pre-shift meetings and managing safety across critical operations, providing robust support for safe production [2] Group 2: Cost Control - The company transitions from financial budgeting to project budgeting, quantifying material inputs and utility consumption to control costs from the source [3] - An internal market management system is utilized for online material planning and approval, enhancing the efficiency and safety of material fund usage [3] - The company recycles old materials and optimizes labor processes, achieving over a 20% increase in production efficiency and significant cost savings [3] Group 3: Performance Incentives - The company implements a comprehensive performance analysis mechanism, linking budget fulfillment directly to wage distribution to enforce budget management [4] - Inventory management practices are improved, resulting in a 7.2% year-on-year reduction in inventory levels [4] - Future plans include optimizing management measures to address weaknesses and enhance operational efficiency for high-quality development [4]
锦州石化打响年底安全生产攻坚战
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-10-24 04:31
Core Viewpoint - Jinzhou Petrochemical prioritizes safety and environmental protection as it enters the fourth quarter, focusing on risk prevention and control measures to ensure stable operations during winter [1][2] Group 1: Safety Management - The company integrates "Thunder Action" requirements with winter safety production, ensuring safety management penetrates to the grassroots level [1] - A closed-loop rectification mechanism is strictly implemented to address issues identified in the QHSE system audit [1] - The company has completed the preparation of anti-freezing and anti-congealing plans in advance, aiming for "no freezing in any pipeline, no damage to any equipment" [1] Group 2: Risk Control Measures - Jinzhou Petrochemical emphasizes the principle of "time obeys quality, progress obeys safety" during maintenance operations, enhancing risk identification and mitigation measures [1] - The company conducts dynamic risk assessments during maintenance, refines construction plans, and increases on-site supervision [1] - Special attention is given to new production units and equipment undergoing their first winter, with dedicated personnel assigned for inspections [1] Group 3: Post-Holiday Recovery - To ensure a smooth recovery after the holiday, the company conducts thorough on-site inspections focusing on construction environments and equipment conditions [2] - Potential hazards such as pit collapses after rain are addressed through comprehensive inspections by specialized personnel [2] - A responsibility ledger is established for identified hazards, with clear accountability and deadlines for rectification [2]
回采率93.3%,多抠1.8万吨煤 这里跑出生产“加速度”
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-10-23 04:02
Core Viewpoint - Shandong Energy Group's Baodian Coal Mine is intensifying efforts to meet annual production targets in the fourth quarter, focusing on safety management, production organization, and cost reduction to achieve a successful year-end performance [1][8]. Safety Management - The mine emphasizes a "stable" approach to safety production, with ongoing training and updates on safety regulations for employees [3][4]. - A total of 243 accident case studies have been organized for staff, along with 32 warning education sessions to enhance safety awareness [4]. - The "Smart Safety Monitoring Center" has identified 174 safety hazards, and a safety assessment system has been implemented to encourage compliance and recognize outstanding performance [4][5]. Production Efficiency - The mine has achieved a coal recovery rate of 93.3%, extracting an additional 18,000 tons of coal through effective management and expert consultations [5][6]. - A focus on "busy but not chaotic" production practices has been adopted, with tailored management plans for different working faces to ensure safety and efficiency [5][6]. - Equipment maintenance and upgrades are prioritized to minimize downtime and enhance operational efficiency [6]. Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The mine has implemented eight key measures for cost reduction and ten actions for expense savings, aiming for a reduction of controllable costs by over 10%, with a target of 20% [7][8]. - A transparent performance evaluation system has been established to foster a competitive atmosphere among workers, encouraging efficiency and productivity [7]. - Energy consumption management strategies are in place, including the elimination of high-energy-consuming equipment and maximizing resource recovery rates [8]. Overall Commitment - The Baodian Coal Mine is committed to achieving its annual goals by reinforcing safety measures while simultaneously increasing production and managing costs effectively, with all employees focused on a successful fourth-quarter performance [8].
三钢闽光因生产安全事故责任类违法被罚103万元
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-10-23 02:04
Core Viewpoint - Fujian Sansteel Minmetals Co., Ltd. was fined 1.03 million RMB due to safety violations related to production accidents, including inadequate management of safety facilities and violations in on-site operations [1][2]. Company Overview - Fujian Sansteel Minmetals Co., Ltd. was established on December 26, 2001, and is primarily engaged in the steel industry, with additional operations in related sectors [3]. - The company was founded by Fujian Sansteel (Group) Co., Ltd. along with several other partners, including Xiamen International Trade Group Co., Ltd. and Xiamen International Port Co., Ltd. [3]. Regulatory Actions - The fine of 1.03 million RMB was imposed by the Emergency Management Bureau of Sanming City for violations of the Production Safety Law of the People's Republic of China [1][2]. - The specific violations included failure to manage safety facilities properly and instances of illegal command and operations on-site, which contributed to the occurrence of accidents [1][2].
省领导赴无锡研究推进四季度经济运行工作
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-10-22 22:35
Group 1 - The Wuxi Paixin Aerospace Special Alloy Structural Parts Intelligent Production Line Project is a significant provincial project, emphasizing the importance of innovation-driven development and climbing the value chain [1] - Wuxi Yicott Textile Group Co., Ltd. is encouraged to enhance its brand advantages and increase the intensity of intelligent transformation to promote industrial renewal [1] - Huajin Semiconductor Packaging Pilot Technology R&D Center is recognized as a leading innovation center in the semiconductor packaging industry, with a focus on integrating innovation, industry, and talent [1] Group 2 - Local authorities are urged to enhance policy support and service guarantees for enterprises, addressing land and factory needs to create a favorable innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystem [2] - There is a strong emphasis on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to achieve annual goals and ensure a successful conclusion to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Safety production responsibilities are to be implemented at all levels, with a focus on high-level safety guarantees for high-quality development [2]
额敏县杰勒阿尕什镇市场监督管理所开展农机修理市场专项检查
Zhong Guo Shi Pin Wang· 2025-10-22 13:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a special inspection conducted by the market supervision administration in Jiele'agesi Town to regulate the agricultural machinery repair market, ensuring repair quality and protecting farmers' rights [1][2]. Group 1: Inspection Objectives - The inspection aims to standardize the agricultural machinery repair market order and safeguard the quality of repairs [1]. - It covers multiple repair shops within the jurisdiction to identify existing issues in the repair process and combat illegal activities [1]. Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - The inspection focuses on the qualifications of operating entities, verifying business licenses to prevent unlicensed operations [1]. - Quality checks on commonly used repair parts are conducted to ensure they have proper certifications and are free from counterfeit or substandard products [1]. - The inspection evaluates the standardization of repair services and the safety measures in place at repair locations, including fire safety and electrical safety compliance [1]. Group 3: Outcomes and Future Actions - So far, six agricultural machinery repair shops have been inspected, with no issues found [2]. - The market supervision administration plans to enhance regulatory efforts on agricultural machinery repair activities to provide quality assurance and safety support for agricultural production [2]. - There will be increased collaboration with agricultural machinery departments to strengthen regulatory cooperation and maintain market integrity [2].
“十四五”期间,德州整治消除问题隐患91.7万项
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-10-22 09:22
Core Viewpoint - The city of Dezhou has made significant advancements in emergency management during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and safety, thereby providing a solid safety guarantee for the city's economic and social development [3]. Group 1: Safety Production - The safety production situation has shown continuous improvement, with 917,000 hidden dangers addressed through various actions in key sectors such as transportation, construction, hazardous chemicals, and fire safety [4]. - The city has implemented a series of institutional documents to ensure accountability in safety production, resulting in a 74.2% decrease in the number of accidents and a 76.8% decrease in fatalities compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 2: Natural Disaster Response - The city has enhanced its natural disaster response capabilities through nine key projects, improving monitoring, early warning, and foundational engineering for various disaster types [5]. - Significant investments have been made annually to bolster disaster monitoring and early warning capabilities, including the establishment of three seismic monitoring stations [5]. - Dezhou has been approved as a national pilot city for comprehensive urban safety risk monitoring and early warning, becoming one of 15 pilot cities nationwide [5]. Group 3: Emergency Management Infrastructure - The emergency command system has been upgraded to ensure 24-hour audio and video connectivity across various levels of command and departments [7]. - A total of 6,441 emergency response plans have been developed across city, county, township, and village levels, with approximately 70 drills conducted annually [7]. - The city has established a comprehensive rescue team system covering all 134 towns and 6,073 villages, enhancing emergency response capabilities [7].