Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term urea price will fluctuate on the strong side due to the market rumor of China exporting urea to India, which helps relieve the pressure of high domestic supply in the off - season of agricultural demand [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, UR01 closed at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton or 3.59% from August 18), UR05 at 1,839 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan/ton or 2.74%), UR09 at 1,783 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton or 3.00%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Spot prices in multiple regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 changed from - 60 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a change of - 49 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread changed from - 36 yuan/ton to - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 31 yuan/ton (0.60%) to 5,225 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5,100 yuan/ton [1] 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,756 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,826 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,744 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,789 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 213,033 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR increased in position and price, closing at 1,817. The rumor of China exporting urea to India led to an increase in position and price of urea futures, with a gain of over 3%. Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market, the key variable is exports, and opening up exports in the off - season of agricultural demand helps relieve the pressure of high supply [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on August 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply of urea in China is loose, with the daily average output still at a high level. Although some devices are under maintenance, the daily output is around 190,000 tons, the highest in the same period. The demand side shows a downward trend, with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China, and few grass - roots orders. However, the new Indian tender of 2 million tons has a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. In the short term, the domestic demand is limited, but the futures market has risen due to news stimulation. It is expected that the domestic urea price will remain firm [5]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures increased in volume and price in the afternoon, closing at 1817 (+62/+3.53%) [3] - Spot Market: The ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase compared with 76.31% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was average, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas were stable, but the transaction weakened. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes rebounded slightly, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased slightly, but the raw material inventory was sufficient, the finished product inventory was high, and the new order transaction was weak. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, the ex - factory quotes were stable, and the new order transaction was weak. In the areas around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled down [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output decreased to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tender was announced, with India tendering 2 million tons again, closing on September 2 and with a shipping date at the end of October. The domestic and foreign price difference was large, which had a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. The enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, the grass - roots had no intention to stock up, and the compound fertilizer factories' operating rate increased slightly, but the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 68,900 tons to around 957,400 tons, at a high level [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on dips [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [9]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of the mid - session on August 19, the main urea futures rose rapidly by more than 3%. It was mainly affected by the news that China is preparing to supply fertilizers, rare - earth materials, and tunnel excavators to India, and a new round of Indian tenders for 1 million tons each on the east and west coasts is approaching the domestic export window period on October 15 [3]. - China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, with a cumulative export of 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons. It is expected that the export volume will be high from July to August, and the concentrated export will be from August to September [3]. - The short - term domestic supply - demand fundamentals have limited support. The new round of Indian tenders guides the spot market sentiment. The spot trading in the mainstream areas improved yesterday. The short - term price rebounds from the bottom. Be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Hold the previous long positions, and those not in the market should wait for a correction to layout long positions in distant months [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs - **Urea Futures Market Performance**: As of the mid - session on August 19, the main urea futures rose rapidly, with the increase exceeding 3% [3]. - **Reasons for Price Increase**: Market news about China's supply to India and the approaching new round of Indian tenders [3]. - **Export Situation**: China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons, with expected high export volume from July - August and concentrated export from August - September [3]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term domestic fundamentals have limited support. Be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Hold previous long positions and wait for a correction to layout long positions in distant months [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, and the spot price has stabilized due to the release of the Indian tender and export news. However, the subsequent domestic demand drive is not obvious, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. There is still a large export space for urea in July, and the subsequent implementation needs to be monitored. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the future supply - demand is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1754 yuan/ton (+17). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+30), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was - 14 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 14 yuan/ton (+13) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 52 million tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 60 million tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20, but with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 18, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+30), and the export profit was 1321 yuan/ton (-49). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Urea exports continued in August, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. India's NFL issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. The urea export in July was 57 million tons, and there is still a large export space compared with the previously recognized export quota [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48% (+1.98%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (-11.28%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is affected by the parade, with melamine and panel factories expected to reduce production. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent urea futures market has been oscillating. After the "anti-involution" sentiment subsided, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. The domestic supply of urea, including daily production and operating rates, remains at a relatively high level, and overall inventory is high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The domestic urea market still shows a significant oversupply situation. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1850 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the urea futures will continue to oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and overall inventory is high. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, showing significant oversupply. Export profit has declined but remains strong, and export policies are not liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1850 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 96, with a premium/discount ratio of 5.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies are not liberalized beyond expectations, and domestic oversupply is still significant. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: International prices are strong, which is a bullish factor. High operating rates and daily production, as well as weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1850 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1754 | 17 | Warehouse Receipts | 3573 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1860 | 0 | Basis | 96 | -17 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.457 million tons | -0.2 | | Henan Spot | 1850 | 28 | UR01 | 1754 | 17 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 0.968 million tons | -5.1 | | FOB China | 2942 | - | UR05 | 1790 | 7 | UR Port Inventory | 0.489 million tons | 4.9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1731 | 10 | - | - | - | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral; for inter - delivery spread, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when the spread is high; there is no recommendation for inter - commodity trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading atmosphere continues to weaken, and spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. Although the output of urea is at a high level and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, the supply - demand situation of urea will remain relatively loose in the future. The profit of coal - based urea production is acceptable, but the cost support is weak. Urea exports are ongoing, and port inventories are fluctuating slightly. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [7][8][12][21] 2. Urea Production - It presents the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows the production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and the national capacity utilization rate [21][24][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profits - It includes the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, and the urea export profit and the profit of export on the futures market [26][28][32][35][38] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders are presented [48][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position and trading volume of the main contract [46][49][50] Market Data - **Price and Basis**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,726 yuan/ton (unchanged); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 1,720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu, it was 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), in Henan it was 14 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 4 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of urea was 190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the export profit was 1,374 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of August 14, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (up 0.08 percentage points). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (up 6.98 million tons), and the inventory of port samples was 46.40 million tons (down 1.90 million tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of August 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48% (up 1.98 percentage points); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (down 11.28 percentage points); the number of days of pre - received orders of urea enterprises was 6.29 days (down 0.24 days) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market trading atmosphere has weakened. After a slight price increase in some areas, the trading volume is average. The downstream agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea remains loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, but the cost - side support is weak. August is the export window period, and the urea export continues with narrow fluctuations in port inventory. The Indian IPL urea import tender has a confirmed winning bid of 207.5 tons. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in export dynamics [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1726 yuan/ton (-1); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1730 yuan/ton (+10); in Jiangsu, it was 1730 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton (+11); in Henan, it was 14 yuan/ton (+11); in Jiangsu, it was 4 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.98% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 tons (+6.98) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 3.4 Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1377 yuan/ton (+12). The Indian IPL urea import tender had a confirmed winning bid of 207.5 tons, with 103.5 tons on the east coast at CFR 532 US dollars/ton and 104 tons on the west coast at CFR 530 US dollars/ton [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.50% (+2.82%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.10% (-2.40%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 48.30 tons (-1.00) [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Energy Chemical Research Report - Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1726 (+0/+0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable. Henan's factory price was reported at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong's small - particle factory price at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, Hebei's small - particle factory price at 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi's medium and small - particle factory price at 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Anhui's small - particle factory price at 1690 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's factory price at 1570 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On August 13, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.12 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.23 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 82.59%, a 5.99% increase from 76.60% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Generally average. Mainstream regional urea spot factory quotes stopped falling and stabilized, with weaker transactions. Shandong's mainstream factory quotes rebounded, but market sentiment was average. Industrial compound fertilizer operating rates increased slightly, with sufficient raw material inventories, high finished - product inventories, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. Henan's market sentiment was low, with stable factory quotes, and traders were waiting and watching. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily average production dropped to around 19 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. Urea production enterprise inventories increased by 5.38 tons to around 91.73 tons, at a high level overall [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared to the previous period. There was a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which boosted the domestic market sentiment to some extent. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the available days of urea inventory were more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, domestic demand was still limited. Agricultural demand had ended, and compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered factory prices, manufacturers still had difficulty in receiving orders. The Indian tender confirmed 2.1 million tons of supply, in line with market expectations, and the spot market sentiment weakened again [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]