2025 年 12 月 24 日 尿素：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 标 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 收盘价 | 项目名称 （元/吨） | 昨日数据 1,721 | 前日数据 1,698 | 变动幅度 2 3 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,713 | 1,700 | 1 3 | | 尿素主力 | | | 成交量 （手） | 178,146 | 95,294 | 82852 | | 期货市场 | （05合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 179,049 | 169,174 | 9875 | | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 10,532 | 10,881 | -349 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 610,495 | 323,993 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; UR05 - 09 for positive spread trading at low levels; No recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core Viewpoints - As environmental protection restrictions are gradually lifted, it is expected that both urea enterprises and downstream industries will see a slight increase in their operating rates. Recently, the spot trading of urea has slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The pending orders of mainstream producers still provide support, so the price is expected to remain stable for the time being. On the supply side, gas - based production units will start maintenance in December in the fourth quarter, and the enterprises that previously reduced production due to environmental protection issues are gradually resuming. On the demand side, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The demand from industries affected by environmental protection is gradually recovering. The introduction of raw material supply policies for compound fertilizers has cooled down the market sentiment, leading some enterprises to reduce production and causing the overall operating rate to decline slightly. The operating rate of melamine plants has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Procurement in major producing areas has slowed down, and inventory in factories has decreased due to reserve demand in the Northeast and Northwest, while port inventory has slightly increased. With the alleviation of environmental protection issues this week, industrial demand is expected to increase slightly. Continuous attention should be paid to the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Urea Basis Structure - The section may involve the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, the price of the main continuous contract of urea, and the price spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads) [7][8][10] 2. Urea Production - It may cover the weekly production of urea and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - This part includes the production cost, spot production profit, on - paper production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [27][28][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The section contains the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the price difference between the Baltic Sea FOB and China FOB, the price difference between the Southeast Asian CFR and China FOB, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit [34][40][42] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It involves the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - This part includes the upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the trading volume, and the open interest of the main contract [55][58][65] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 22, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,698 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,720 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 32 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan it was - 8 yuan/ton (-1), and in Jiangsu it was 22 yuan/ton (+19). The production profit of urea was 151 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 846 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Supply Side - As of December 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 80.69% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.97 million tons (-5.45 million tons), and the inventory of port samples was 13.80 million tons (+1.50 million tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.37% (-1.25%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.55% (-3.31%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.24 days (-0.70 days) [1]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1698 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1690 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 868 手至 16.35 万手，空头持仓增加 1915 手至 17.88 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 少 70 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 117.97 万吨，较上周减少 5.45 万吨，环比减 4.42%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.8 万吨，环比+1.5 万吨。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 39.3%，环比-1.25%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.3%。 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 供应 • 本周(20251211-1217)，中国尿素生产企业产量：136.59万吨，较上期跌1.95万吨，环比跌1.41%。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，暂无停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计137万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，2-4家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量可能略增。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及复 合肥厂连续补库，带动内蒙地区工厂订单数量增加，库存下降。但伴随工厂价格上涨以及货物的顺利外发，中游补 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-19 环保问题部分上游减产 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-18，尿素主力收盘1708元/吨（+62）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1700元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：2 元/吨（-42）；河南基差：-28元/吨（-52）；江苏基差：-8元/吨（-42）；尿素生产利润180元/吨（+20），出口利润849 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-12-18，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.97 万吨（-5.45），港口样本 库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-18，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购150万吨（西海岸80万吨东海岸70万吨）。2026年1月2日截标，有效 期至1月16日，最晚船期2月20日。尿素现货低价成交好转，市场交投氛围转强。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐 开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期 出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1680 （+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-28，升贴水比例-1.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135.7万吨（-3.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，工业需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait-and-see - Inter-variety: None [3] 2. Report's Core View - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tenders, with an intended purchase of 1.5 million tons. The urea spot price has loosened, and low-price trading has improved, leading to a stronger market trading atmosphere. The daily urea output has slightly decreased, and the current off-season storage procurement has slowed down. The industrial rigid demand has slightly declined, while the melamine plant has resumed production and the rigid demand procurement has increased. With market activities such as off-season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement, the factory inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China, the raw material procurement rhythm, the national off-season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][14][16] 3.2 Urea Production - Includes charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume [19] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start-up Rate - Includes charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal-based capacity utilization rate, and gas-based capacity utilization rate [24][25][27][29] 3.4 Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Includes charts of urea small particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small particle FOB in China, urea large particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [31][38][40][45] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start-up and Orders - Includes charts of compound fertilizer start-up rate, melamine start-up rate, and pending order days [50][47] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [51][53][58]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期 出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1670（- 0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135.7万吨（-3.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，工业需求按 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market rebounded today due to a sudden Indian tender, with the futures price rising and the spot market seeing improved transactions. However, there is significant upward pressure, and the key to a breakout lies in the increase in downstream demand. The supply remains high, and the demand shows mixed trends with potential for winter storage demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures market of urea opened higher and rebounded, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1646 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The spot market had active transactions, with some factories stopping sales. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton [1][2][4]. - The daily urea production was 19.56 tons, remaining stable, and the operating rate was 80.6%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons from last week, and the pre - order days were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [10][11]. - The basis of the January contract in Henan weakened, standing at 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Futures Market - The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, closed at 1646 yuan/ton, with a trading volume increase of 1.29%. The open interest was 164,528 lots, an increase of 10,535 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,139 lots and short positions by 7,107 lots [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,202, a decrease of 12 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the transaction was hot. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having relatively lower prices [1][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The daily production remained above 190,000 tons, and the gas - based production reduction was weaker than in previous years due to looser natural gas resources [1]. - Demand: Agricultural demand was in the off - season, and traders replenished stocks in a timely manner. The policy of compound fertilizers was unclear, and the start - up speed of compound fertilizers was expected to slow down. Other industrial demand was gradually resuming, and winter storage demand was expected to continue to be released [1]. - Inventory: The overall inventory continued to decline, mainly concentrated in the Northeast and Northwest regions, while the inventory in the main delivery areas increased slightly [1].

【重要资讯】 【尿素】12 月 17 日，尿素行业日产 19.50 万吨，较上一工日持平（修正：上一工作 日日产为 19.50 万吨）；较去年同期增加 1.59 万吨；今日开工率 80.62%，较去年同期 79.24% 下降 1.38%。 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货主力完成切换，最终报收 1683（+11/+0.66%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，成交改善，河南出厂报 1600-1620 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1670-1680 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1570-1590 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1520-1570 元/吨。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价平稳，受印标刺激，市场情绪升温，成交改善，大部分厂家全面停 售。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现尚可，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料库 存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商低价采 购，新单成交火爆，省内尿素厂全面停售，预计出厂报价稳中 ...