Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted. After the export quota was finalized, market sentiment gradually cooled, and the price showed a narrow - range oscillation. The urea futures price is likely to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, supported by export news and reserve demand expectations, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited. The UR01&05 spread strengthened slightly recently, but its rebound space is also limited. For options, the short - term reduction of positions in the previously sold main call options is recommended, with attention to risk control and stop - loss [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted this week. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1,658 yuan/ton. The current urea futures market is in a relatively strong oscillation. After the new batch of export quotas was finalized, market sentiment cooled, but the price still showed some resistance to decline. The improvement in fundamental supply and demand is relatively limited. Although the industrial inventory has declined from its high level, the absolute quantity still exerts significant pressure, weakening the price rebound momentum to some extent. The price is likely to oscillate and adjust, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited [6]. Spot Market - This week, the prices of the urea spot market in various regions increased slightly. Due to export stimulation, traders and end - users appropriately increased their replenishment, and factory quotes were relatively firm, but the sustainability was insufficient. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong was about 1,550 - 1,630 yuan/ton, the reference price for first - hand traders in Linyi was around 1,600 yuan/ton, and that in Heze was around 1,590 yuan/ton [9]. Basis and Spread - This week, the basis adjusted within a narrow range. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 58 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 18 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 73 yuan/ton, adjusting at a low level [9]. Warehouse Receipts - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has gradually increased. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 6,958. Currently, the warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings, while those in other factories and warehouses are relatively low [10]. Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 229,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the maintenance volume of coal - based sample plants was about 18,230 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period; the maintenance volume of gas - based sample plants was about 46,700 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. As of November 13, the domestic urea operating rate was about 84.08%, an increase of about 1.37% compared with the previous period. This week, the urea output was about 1.3769 million tons, an increase of about 22,400 tons compared with last week. The continuous increase in the stock load pressure may drag down the subsequent urea price, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to improve due to the expected release of new production capacity [13][16][17]. Downstream Industries - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 13, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72% compared with last week. The profit of compound fertilizer continued to be compressed. The inventory of compound fertilizer decreased to about 656,300 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 6.36%. The seasonal slowdown of the compound fertilizer load may weaken its support for urea [19]. - **Melamine**: As of November 13, the domestic melamine operating rate was about 57.48%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine output increased to about 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.15%. The load is expected to remain strong in the future [20]. Inventory and Pre - sales - As of November 12, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was about 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of about 94,500 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 5.99%. The port inventory increased to 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous period. As of now, the pre - sales days are about 7.71 days, an increase of about 0.42 days compared with the previous period. The inventory pressure of the urea industry has been moderately relieved, but the absolute quantity is still large, and further inventory digestion is needed [23][24]. Industry Profits - As of November 13, the profit of the fixed - bed process was about - 327 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the profit of the coal - water slurry process was about 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the profit of the natural gas process was about - 282 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The urea industry profit has continued to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, so the profit is likely to continue weak adjustment [27].

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Urea [1] - Report type: Daily report - Report date: November 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - On November 20, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated upwards, closing at 1665 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1674 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1648 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,000 lots, an increase of 53,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 245,000 lots, a decrease of 4,000 lots from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Price - Urea 2512: Closing price 1651, change 0.06%, trading volume 6093 lots, a decrease of 538 lots, high 1658, low 1635, open 1648, close 1643 - Urea 2601: Closing price 1665, change 0.00%, open interest 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots, trading volume 209,245 lots, high 1661, low 1661 - Urea 2602: Closing price 1670, previous close 1668 [6] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Spot Price and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices remained generally stable, with slight differences in some regions due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1640 yuan/ton (basis -25 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1500 yuan/ton (basis -165 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1600 yuan/ton (basis -65 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1620 yuan/ton (basis -45 yuan/ton) [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry Information - Demand side: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 30.2%, and the operating rate of melamine was 53.2%. The new order transactions in the urea market were slow last week, but improved after enterprises cut prices. Currently, prices have risen slightly, and the market trading atmosphere has continued to warm up. The autumn fertilizer production of agriculture and compound fertilizer has entered the final stage, winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has declined slightly due to environmental protection factors. Although the operating rate of melamine has increased, purchases are still mainly for rigid demand [7][8] - Supply side: The winter storage process has gradually started, and the urea of Xinjiang Zhongneng has been put on the market. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the urea supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term. It is expected that the maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter will start gradually from December [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The current urea market transactions have warmed up, but the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, winter storage has not started on a large scale, and the operating rates of industries such as compound fertilizer remain low due to environmental protection and other factors. On the supply side, new production capacity is gradually being released, and the products of Xinjiang Zhongneng have been put on the market. It is expected that the urea supply will be loose in the medium and long term. The maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter may start gradually in December, which may support the supply to some extent. The current market is still mainly for rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate. The progress of winter storage and the impact of environmental protection policies need to be monitored in the future [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the launch of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. New production capacities have increased supply pressure, and exports have improved, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -4, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and exports improving compared with the previous period, but the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1650 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2847 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1654 (-11), the price of the UR05 contract is 1728 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1734 (-5) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have shown different degrees of change. For example, the production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a capacity growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1690 in the short term [7]. - The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production. Next week, 2 enterprises' devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production. The change in production is expected to be limited [8]. - The procurement of Northeast reserve demand has been relatively concentrated recently, but the procurement volume may slow down. The compound fertilizer start - up has increased slightly, and enterprises are gradually producing winter - storage fertilizers. The export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1630 - 1690 range in the short term [7]. - Market review: The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - Market outlook: Production may change slightly. Northeast reserve procurement may slow down, compound fertilizer start - up may increase slightly, export demand is increasing, and enterprise inventory is expected to decline [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures has fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [11]. - Inter - period spread: As of November 21, the UR 1 - 5 spread is - 74 [14]. - Position analysis: No specific summary information provided. - Warehouse receipt trend: As of November 20, there are 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared to last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of November 20, the mainstream price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu is 1620 yuan/ton (+30) [28]. - Foreign price trend: As of November 20, the FOB price of urea in China is 400 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31]. - Basis trend: As of November 20, the urea basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared to last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [41]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of November 20, China's urea production is 142.04 tons, an increase of 4.35 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. The capacity utilization rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous period [44]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.95%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 143.72 tons, a decrease of 4.64 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [47]. - Export situation: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.30%; the average export price was 432.05 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.83% [50]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer and melamine start - up rates: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers this cycle is 34.61%, a month - on - month increase of 4.29 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine is 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points compared to last week [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are showing a pattern of low prices rising, and since the release of export quotas, both futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. The futures price is mainly in a strong oscillatory state, with the upper limit restricted by high daily production. Continued attention should be paid to the situation of Indian tenders [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong oscillatory trend. The futures rebound the previous day improved market trading sentiment, leading to increased low - price fertilizer stocking by downstream agricultural dealers. The supply side remains loose, with previously shut - down plants resuming production and expected output to continue increasing. Coal raw material prices are still rising, but the increase is narrowing. The start - up load of compound fertilizer plants decreased this week due to environmental inspections in North China, which is expected to improve after the inspections end. After the release of new export quotas last week, market purchases increased, and inventory is still being depleted [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1662 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250907 lots, a decrease of 3842 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 3069 lots and short positions decreased by 2327 lots [2] - Spot: The futures rebound the previous day improved market trading sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers increased low - price fertilizer stocking. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1540 - 1580 yuan/ton, with most increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation decreased, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 52 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [7] - Supply Data: On November 18, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,200 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 82.91% [10] Warehouse Receipts - On November 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea trading atmosphere has improved. New orders were slow to follow up last week, but sales improved after price cuts. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is also winding down. Winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. Melamine operating rate has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. Gas - fired plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The news of export quotas has improved urea export expectations at the end of the year, which is expected to support the spot market. The Indian IPL has issued a new urea import tender, and the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm need to be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][11] 2. Urea Production - The report presents data on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [20][25] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [29][30][33] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report provides data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [35][40][50] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows data on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [56][57][61] Market Data Details - **Price and Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,662 yuan/ton (+10). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,580 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton (-20), in Henan was - 62 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was - 82 yuan/ton (-20). Urea production profit was 60 yuan/ton (-10), and export profit was 1,048 yuan/ton (+116) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 148.36 million tons (-9.45), and the port sample inventory was 8.20 million tons (+0.30) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] Strategy - **Single - sided**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage - enterprise entry. The low valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but the price is supported at a low level. [1] - The trading strategy is to take profit on selling options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term. [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 rose from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 rose from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by - 0.63%, - 0.62%, - 1.23%, and - 0.63% respectively, while those in Shanxi and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 0.67%, while that in Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu increased by 0.97%. [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 20.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged. [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1667 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1641 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1662 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1656 yuan/ton, and the position was 254752 lots. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -72, and the premium - discount ratio is -4.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is moderately weak, agricultural demand is weak, and the improvement in exports compared to the previous period boosts the market sentiment. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 million tons | | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | | | 2019 | | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1590 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1662 | 10 | Warehouse Receipts | 7183 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -72 | -20 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.566 million tons | | | Henan Spot | 1600 | 0 | UR01 | 1662 | 10 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.484 million tons | | | FOB China | 2843 | | UR05 | 1737 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 82,000 tons | | | | | | UR09 | 1755 | 7 | | | | [6]