Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Spot prices are weakly stable, and attention should be paid to the bidding situation of Indian tenders - Enterprises have recently lowered their quotes, and low - price transactions have improved. The transactions in the mainstream regions have improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes, the transactions cooled down. Low - price transactions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia continued - Some areas are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has decreased. The compound fertilizers required for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to late October. Recently, the weather in the autumn harvest areas has improved, and the shipment of compound fertilizers is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment - The operating rate of melamine has rebounded, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to long - term - The current inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in Northeast China - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still the export window periods. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to the subsequent dynamics of urea exports [1][2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - Include figures such as Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][17] Urea Production - Include figures such as urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [20][25] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures such as production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][32][35] Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Include figures such as urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][39][42] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Include figures such as compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and days of orders to be delivered [49][50][51] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include figures such as upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][57][61]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, the current valuation of urea is low, and further short - selling is not recommended. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On October 14, it was 1597.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan (-0.81%) from October 13 [1] - UR05: On October 14, it was 1671.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan (-0.42%) from October 13 [1] - UR09: On October 14, it was 1707.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 13 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule Urea) - Shandong: On October 14, it was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.31%) from October 13 [1] - Shanxi: On October 14, it was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan (0.69%) from October 13 [1] - Henan: On October 14, it was 1540.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.32%) from October 13 [1] - Hebei: On October 14, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from October 13 [1] - Northeast: On October 14, it was 1620.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan (-0.61%) from October 13 [1] - Jiangsu: On October 14, it was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.96%) from October 13 [1] Spreads - Shandong Spot - UR01: On October 14, it was - 121.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan from October 13 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On October 14, it was - 74.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from October 13 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite Coal Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Anthracite Coal Price (Shanxi): On October 14, it was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 2900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 2500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 5084.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Jiangsu): On October 14, it was 5100.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan (-1.92%) from October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1606 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1592 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1602 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 321992 lots. [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The current urea market has weak supply and demand with prominent supply pressure. Affected by continuous rainfall, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, enterprise shipments are poor, and inventory continues to accumulate. Although the daily output and operating rate have slightly declined, the daily output of 199,400 tons is still at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to be weak [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 10, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined. The closing price was 1,597 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,614 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,593 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 161,000 lots, a decrease of 83,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 339,000 lots, an increase of 72,000 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price - Urea 2510: The latest price was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 1.06%. The open interest was 2,610 lots, a decrease of 125 lots, and the trading volume was 315 lots [6] - Urea 2511: The latest price was 1,573 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.26%. The open interest was 20,231 lots, a decrease of 780 lots, and the trading volume was 6,130 lots [6] - Urea 2601 M: The latest price was 1,597 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 1.36%. The open interest was 338,864 lots, an increase of 28,175 lots, and the trading volume was 161,077 lots [6] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of urea in major domestic regions remained generally stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,580 yuan/ton (basis - 17 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,510 yuan/ton (basis - 87 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1,500 yuan/ton (basis - 97 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,610 yuan/ton (basis 13 yuan/ton) [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industrial Information - Demand: Affected by continuous rainfall in many places, the demand for urea in the industrial and agricultural fields has weakened. Most enterprises' inventories are overstocked as product shipments and flows are not as expected [8][9] - Supply: The domestic urea supply pressure is large, and the problem of weak domestic demand is still prominent. Although the daily output level and operating rate have slightly declined recently, they are still at a relatively high level, with the daily output of the urea industry at 199,400 tons. It is expected that the inventory of upstream production enterprises will continue to accumulate, and the market pressure will be large in the near future [9] 3.4 Market Outlook - The short - term urea futures market may maintain a weak operation due to the current supply - demand imbalance and supply pressure in the urea market [10]

尿素日报 | 2025-10-14 现货成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-13，尿素主力收盘1610元/吨（+13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1520 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1530元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-80 元/吨（-33）；河南基差：-90元/吨（-33）；江苏基差：-80元/吨（-43）；尿素生产利润0元/吨（-10），出口利润982 元/吨（+11）。 供应端：截至2025-10-13，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-13，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交情绪较好，部分厂家小幅上调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥 进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多，今年冬小麦用肥需 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-10 节后厂内库存高位累库 市场分析 策略 单边：中性 跨期：UR01-05逢高反套 跨品种：无 价格与基差：2025-10-09，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（-61）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1570 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1570元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-49 元/吨（+21）；河南基差：-39元/吨（+41）；江苏基差：-39元/吨（+31）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（-40），出口利润1083 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-09，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-09，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 国庆期间尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌。本周期内内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续 累积，本周较国庆 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not appear. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's reaction to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, the current urea valuation is low, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog A. Futures and Spot Prices - **Urea Futures Prices**: On October 9, UR01 closed at 1609 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 3.65% from September 30; UR05 closed at 1677 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 2.33%; UR09 closed at 1701 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.35% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: On October 9, the prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1560, 1460, 1570, 1620, 1630, and 1570 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 (-2.50%), - 30 (-2.01%), - 20 (-1.26%), - 20 (-1.22%), - 20 (-1.21%), and - 30 (-1.88%) yuan compared to September 30 [1]. B. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 117 yuan/ton on October 9, unchanged from September 30. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 68 yuan/ton on October 9, down 21 yuan from September 30 [1]. C. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 2900 and 2500 yuan/ton on October 9, down 30 (-1.02%) and 20 (-0.79%) yuan respectively compared to September 30. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. D. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 310,689 lots [1].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea market is still in a situation of significant oversupply. Although the international urea price is strong, it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the urea main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Positive Factors - International prices are strong [5] Negative Factors - High daily production at high operating rates [5] - Weak domestic demand [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Analysis of Each Indicator - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are slightly down but still high, with enterprise inventories accumulating in many provinces. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third batch of export quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-40), with a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.686 million tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong but have limited support for domestic prices. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and significant domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | - 20 | 01 Contract | 1609 | - 61 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | - 20 | Basis | 91 | 41 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1609 | - 61 | | FOB China | 3097 | | UR05 | 1677 | - 40 | | | | | UR09 | 1701 | - 41 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt | 7017 | - 152 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.686 million tons | + 161,000 tons | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.086 million tons | | | UR Port Inventory | 600,000 tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.26」 尿素市场周报 尿素期货价格走势 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收涨，周度+0.48%。 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场继续下探，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1560-1620元/ 吨，均价环比下跌35元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分停车装置恢复，国内尿素日产量增加，本周暂无企业计划停车，2-5家停车企 业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量可能小幅波动。国内农业需求较为零散，局部农 业需求或有小幅提升，对尿素市场支撑有限。工业需求较为平稳，其中复合肥秋季肥生产进入后 期，华北大部需求转淡，企业减负荷停车或进一步增多，预计复合肥产能利用率维持小幅下降态 势。国庆长假的临近，尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，主产销区主力工厂率先下调报价，以此来刺 激下游接货。近期 ...

港口库存小幅去化，关注出口动态 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-25，尿素主力收盘1674元/吨（+1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-64 元/吨（-1）；河南基差：-64元/吨（-1）；江苏基差：-54元/吨（-1）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（+0），出口利润1149元/ 吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-09-25，企业产能利用率85.58%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为49.63 万吨（-1.97）。 需求端：截至2025-09-25，复合肥产能利用率35.27%（-3.36%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.58%（+3.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-09-26 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收 单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不高 ...

| 尿素早评20250926:供给压力继续提升 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 单位 | | 9月25日 | 9月24日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 元/吨 (收盘价) | | 1674.00 | 1673.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | UR05 元/吨 民素期货价格 | | 1727.00 | 1724.00 | 3.00 | 0.17% | | UR09 元/吨 | | 1747.00 | 1745.00 | 2.00 | 0.11% | | 山东 元/吨 | | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 山西 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 1490.00 | 1490.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 河南 国内现货价格 | | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) 河北 元/吨 | | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...