Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with various opinions emerging regarding its future trajectory. Notably, entrepreneur Cao Dewang has pointed out that the intrinsic value of real estate is overestimated, predicting inevitable price declines if current trends continue [1][3]. Market Trends - Since 2022, the number of cities experiencing falling housing prices has been on the rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of November, 51 out of 70 major cities saw a year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices, while 64 cities reported a drop in second-hand housing prices. Even first-tier cities are witnessing a comprehensive price drop, with only a few second-tier cities like Changsha and Chengdu maintaining stable prices [3]. Causes of Decline - The decline in the real estate market can be attributed to two main factors. First, the repeated impact of the pandemic and a sluggish economy have led to widespread layoffs and salary cuts, resulting in lower income expectations and diminished purchasing intent among buyers. This shrinking market demand has directly contributed to price adjustments. Second, the overall cooling of the real estate market has prompted speculators to sell off properties, with the number of second-hand homes listed for sale in key cities exceeding 100,000 units as of October, including 250,000 in Chongqing and over 130,000 in Beijing [5]. Government Response - In response to the market downturn, local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market. These include lifting restrictions on purchases and sales, providing cash subsidies to buyers, and relaxing housing fund loan limits. Additionally, banks have reduced the interest rates on first-time home loans from 5.8% to 4.2% and lowered the down payment ratio from 30% to 20%. The central bank has also eased financing restrictions for developers, allowing them to raise funds through bonds, equity, and loans [7]. Diverging Opinions - Market participants are divided in their perspectives. Proponents of the market believe that the current favorable policies present an excellent opportunity to buy at the bottom, anticipating a rebound in housing prices. Conversely, skeptics argue that the downward trend is established, warning that purchasing now could lead to significant losses in five years, similar to the experiences of buyers in the Beijing suburban area in late 2017, where prices fell by 50% or more [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the struggles of homebuyers from 2020 to 2022, particularly those from the 80s and 90s generations, who bought homes at peak prices and are now facing significant financial losses [1][4]. Group 1: Societal Expectations and Pressures - This generation grew up with the belief that buying a home was essential for wealth accumulation, influenced by the success of previous generations [3]. - The societal consensus emphasized homeownership as a necessary step for family formation, leading many to invest all their savings into purchasing homes [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consequences - The real estate market experienced rapid growth from 2016 to 2021, coinciding with this generation's major life events such as marriage and childbirth, which further pressured them to buy homes [4]. - Following the market crash, approximately 130 million families who purchased homes after 2017 are now facing losses, with many losing their down payments and being burdened by long-term mortgages [4]. Group 3: Personal Struggles and Societal Impact - Many individuals are now in a "negative equity" situation, where their property value is less than their mortgage balance, leading to financial strain and limiting life choices [5]. - The article calls for greater societal support for this generation, suggesting measures like easing sales restrictions and providing loan subsidies to protect their rights as first-time buyers [5].

Core Insights - In September 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline rate continuing to narrow [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In first-tier cities, the new commercial residential property prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines exceeding 0.6% [1] - The second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.0% month-on-month [1] - In second and third-tier cities, both new and second-hand residential property prices experienced month-on-month declines, with the decline rates generally widening [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the struggles of 150 million mortgage holders in China, emphasizing their financial stress and fear of job loss, which could lead to losing their homes and previous savings [4][6][16] Group 1: Financial Strain of Homeowners - Homeowners are burdened by high monthly mortgage payments, with many living paycheck to paycheck and relying on family support for child-rearing expenses [2][3] - The fear of unemployment is prevalent among homeowners, as losing income would jeopardize their ability to pay mortgages and result in the loss of their investments [3][6] - The article notes that the real estate market downturn has led to significant declines in property values, with some areas experiencing price drops of over 40% in three years [9][10] Group 2: Economic Impact of Falling Property Prices - The decline in property values is not just a personal issue for homeowners but poses a risk to the broader economy, potentially affecting various industries linked to real estate [10][12] - A significant drop in real estate investment could lead to a GDP growth slowdown of 2-3 percentage points, highlighting the interconnectedness of the housing market and overall economic health [10][12] - The article draws parallels with Japan's past economic struggles, illustrating the long-term consequences of falling property values on individuals and families [10] Group 3: Challenges in Stabilizing the Housing Market - Despite government efforts to stabilize the housing market, such as lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity, consumer confidence remains low, hindering recovery [12] - The article suggests that the current situation is more about economic stability than merely buying or selling homes, as many people are hesitant to take on long-term financial commitments [12] Group 4: Strategies for Homeowners - Homeowners are encouraged to focus on cash flow management, such as negotiating with banks for extended loan terms or temporarily only paying interest [13] - The article advises homeowners to consider selling non-core properties to free up cash and reduce financial burdens [13] - It also suggests exploring side jobs to increase income, emphasizing the importance of maintaining financial stability during challenging times [13]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in housing prices across 70 major cities for three consecutive months signifies a significant shift in the lives of ordinary people, transforming their perspectives from seeing homeownership as a future investment to feeling burdened by mortgage debts [1][8]. Group 1: Impact on Homeowners - Homeowners who previously believed in the stability of property values are now facing difficulties in selling or renting their homes, leading to financial stress and a sense of being trapped by their mortgages [3][5]. - The decline in housing prices has resulted in substantial financial losses for homeowners, with examples showing losses of up to 1.8 million yuan for properties purchased at peak prices [3][5]. - The pressure of high mortgage payments has caused many individuals to hesitate in making significant life decisions, such as changing jobs or starting families [3][5]. Group 2: Opportunities for New Buyers - The drop in housing prices has created opportunities for new buyers, particularly for those who have been unable to purchase homes due to high prices, allowing them to consider homeownership for the first time [3][5]. - The reduction in down payment pressures has led to increased consumer spending, as individuals can now allocate funds towards travel, education, and entertainment rather than solely saving for a home [3][5]. Group 3: Policy and Market Changes - The decline in housing prices has facilitated the implementation of "rent and purchase" policies, allowing renters to access the same public services as homeowners, thus making renting more attractive [5][6]. - The focus of housing has shifted from being viewed as an investment to being recognized for its residential value, prompting a change in consumer preferences towards comfort and convenience rather than size and investment potential [5][6]. Group 4: Economic and Urban Development - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP, previously around 25%, is undergoing a transformation as funds and talent are redirected towards manufacturing and high-tech industries, promoting long-term economic health [6][8]. - The decline in housing prices has made urban areas more livable, encouraging young people to settle in cities, which in turn supports local economies and service industries [6][8]. Group 5: Overall Perspective on Price Decline - The ongoing decline in housing prices is viewed as a positive development rather than a disaster, as it allows for a healthier economic structure and eases the financial burdens on ordinary citizens [8]. - The narrative surrounding housing has shifted from "buying a home for a future" to "finding stability in living," indicating a broader societal change towards valuing quality of life over mere investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to continue its decline, with significant signals indicating a downturn in prices and demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Signals - Signal 1: Population decline is leading to reduced demand for housing, as fewer people require homes [1]. - Signal 2: An oversupply of properties is evident, with a significant increase in listings and unsold units, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1][2]. - Signal 3: Financial constraints are tightening, as lower interest rates do not equate to increased purchasing power for potential buyers [1][2]. - Signal 4: Buyer sentiment has shifted from fear of missing out to fear of overpaying, creating a cycle of hesitation and further price declines [1][2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a "stampede," with prices dropping significantly as sellers compete to attract buyers [2]. - There is a rising trend of mortgage defaults, particularly among those who purchased homes at high interest rates during previous market peaks [2]. - Government measures to stimulate the market, such as lowering down payments and interest rates, are ineffective due to the lack of financial capacity among average consumers [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Industry insiders suggest that stopping the price decline would be a victory, and a "V-shaped recovery" is unrealistic; a prolonged stagnation is more likely [2]. - The potential for significant price drops is acknowledged, with predictions of a gradual decline that could lead to substantial losses for homeowners [2]. - The overall sentiment is that real estate should be viewed as a necessity rather than an investment vehicle, emphasizing the importance of financial prudence [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has experienced a significant downturn since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping by 30% from their historical peak, and some cities seeing declines of over 50% [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2022, housing prices in China have entered a downward trend, starting with second and third-tier cities like Tianjin and Zhengzhou, and extending to first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2023 [3]. - Certain cities, including Hegang and Tieling, have seen housing prices fall to extremely low levels, with prices as low as tens of thousands of yuan [4]. - By 2025, the real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes, with notable trends including price differentiation across regions [5]. Group 2: Price Differentiation - Housing prices in the Beijing metropolitan area have experienced the most severe declines, with some areas dropping by 60% to 70% from historical highs [6]. - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may experience a "catch-up" decline, affecting both suburban and central areas, breaking the myth that core areas will only see price increases [8]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The number of first-time homebuyers is expected to decrease significantly due to the nearing end of urbanization in China and the aging population, leading to a long-term oversupply of housing [8]. - Many young people may not need to purchase homes as they inherit properties from their parents, further reducing demand [8]. Group 4: Developer Landscape - A major reshuffling of real estate developers is anticipated by 2025, driven by a debt repayment peak where top developers face liabilities totaling 3 trillion yuan [8]. - Many developers are struggling with high debt levels due to previous aggressive borrowing and are now unable to sell accumulated properties, leading to potential bankruptcies or mergers [8]. Group 5: Affordable Housing Initiatives - The Chinese government plans to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, with a target of 6 million units over the next five years to meet the needs of low-income urban residents [9]. - The pricing of affordable housing will be lower than that of nearby market-rate homes, which is expected to increase downward pressure on housing prices in the broader market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The myth that "housing prices only rise" is fading, with significant price declines observed in the real estate market since the second half of 2021, leading to a shift in investment sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - From 1998 to mid-2021, the national average housing price increased from 2000 yuan per square meter to 11,000 yuan per square meter, a rise of 5.5 times; in first-tier cities, prices surged from 3000 yuan per square meter to 65,000 yuan per square meter, exceeding 20 times [1]. - As of August this year, only 29 out of 100 key cities in China saw new housing prices increase, while 69 cities experienced price declines; in the second-hand housing market, only 23 cities had rising prices, with 74 cities facing declines [4]. Group 2: Developer Strategies - In response to the cooling market, developers are resorting to price cuts and promotions to quickly recover funds, while the number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with 13 cities reporting over 100,000 listings [3]. Group 3: Investment Risks - Experts warn that by 2025, certain types of properties may become "hot potatoes," leading savvy investors to exit the market. These include high-rise residential buildings, small property rights houses, homes over 20 years old, and properties located in remote urban areas [5][7][8]. - High-rise buildings face challenges such as excessive shared area costs, reliance on elevators, safety hazards, and high demolition costs, making them difficult to resell [5]. - Small property rights houses lack the potential for legalization and face quality issues, leading to diminished resale value [7]. - Homes older than 20 years may struggle due to tightening bank lending policies and a preference for newer, higher-quality homes [8]. - Properties in remote areas are less desirable due to inadequate infrastructure and are more vulnerable to price declines compared to central city properties [8].

Core Insights - Since the launch of real estate market reforms in China in 1998, average housing prices have surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan, marking a 5.5-fold increase, while living conditions have improved significantly with per capita housing area rising from 6-7 square meters to 39 square meters [1] - The continuous rise in real estate prices has outpaced residents' income levels, leading many families to struggle with homeownership, often resulting in substantial mortgage burdens [3] - An independent economist has stated that the era of real estate as the best investment in China has ended, suggesting that properties will increasingly return to their primary function as residences [5] Market Trends - As of September 2023, the trend of declining housing prices has become more pronounced, with 99 cities experiencing price drops, and over 90 cities seeing declines for four consecutive months [6] - Government policies have been implemented to cool the housing market, including the cancellation of purchase and sale restrictions, as well as reductions in mortgage rates to 4% and down payments to 20% [6] Future Outlook - The current value of a property priced at 1.5 million yuan may not only stagnate but could decline, as future property values will increasingly depend on local residents' income levels rather than speculation [7] - Several key factors contribute to the expectation of declining property values: - A significant imbalance between supply and demand, with 600 million existing homes capable of housing 3 billion people, and 96% of families already owning at least one property [9] - The prevalence of unfinished projects has eroded buyer confidence, as many real estate companies face financial difficulties due to a sluggish market [11] - The shrinking demand from first-time homebuyers due to urbanization reaching 64%, an aging population, declining marriage rates among younger generations, and a significant drop in newborn numbers [11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with prices continuing to decline for over three years, indicating a shift towards "price for volume" strategies among sellers [2][4][18]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decline of 7.38% [2]. - First-tier cities are also witnessing price drops, with an overall month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in September, which is an acceleration compared to August [4]. - Specific declines in first-tier cities include Beijing (0.6%), Shanghai (0.48%), Guangzhou (0.97%), and Shenzhen (0.5%) [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The number of properties listed for sale has surged, indicating a sense of urgency among sellers. For instance, in August, Beijing saw nearly 18,000 new listings, a 33% increase year-on-year, while Shanghai had 15,500 new listings, up 51% year-on-year [9][11]. - The high volume of listings is intensifying competition among sellers, leading to further price reductions in the second-hand housing market [11]. Group 3: Regional Analysis - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price decline of 0.87% in September, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a smaller decline of 0.68% [13]. - The larger price drops in first and second-tier cities are attributed to previous price bubbles, while third and fourth-tier cities are facing challenges related to low transaction volumes rather than significant price drops [15][16]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Current policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market are designed to prevent a hard landing rather than to drive prices back up to previous highs [18][19]. - The shift in market dynamics indicates that the long-term drivers of housing prices have changed from policy stimulus to sustainable economic development and income expectations [22].