谁能想到啊，当年拽得二五八万的银行，如今竟开始怕老百姓断供房贷了！搁以前，这场景简直像太阳 打西边出来——毕竟老话说银行是"晴天送伞，雨天收伞"，尤其在房贷这事上，前几年燕郊房价腰斩 时，多少人资不抵债想断供，结果被银行追着起诉，法拍完还倒欠钱，征信直接黑成碳。那时候业主断 供跟踩雷似的，不到饿死都不敢走这步。 现在，如果你房贷还不上了，很多地方的银行已经不愿意收你的房子去拍卖了，会主动来跟你商量，让 你每个月象征性地还一点钱，能够应付过去就行，银行比你还担心你会断供。 那么 ，银行为什么突然变得这么慈善了呢？ 最近，我们发现一个很奇怪的数据，就是全国断供的房子比法拍的房子要多很多。按道理说，断供的房 子跟法拍的房子应该是差不多的，但是最近银行自己的财报里，近三年新增的房贷不良贷款是一年比一 年多，但与此同时，法拍房上拍的数量却一年比一年少。 要知道，支断供一两个月银行一般不算坏账的，断了3个月还是不想收你的房子。 这是为什么呢？ 根据中指研究院的数据，2024年，挂牌的法拍房数量就已经比2023年的时候少了2万多套了，今年比去 年更少，上半年就少了1万多套，现在银行压根就不想处理这些法拍房了。以前可不是这样 ...

Core Insights - The mortgage default rate in China has risen to 4.7% in July 2025, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from June and continuing a four-month upward trend, particularly affecting third and fourth-tier cities where the rate has reached 6.8% [1][2] - Economic pressures, including a GDP growth rate of only 4.8% in the first half of 2025, have contributed to declining household income growth, which has fallen to 3.2% compared to 5.8% in the same period of 2022, impacting repayment capabilities [1][2] - The continuous decline in housing prices, with new home prices down 5.7% and second-hand home prices down 6.9% year-on-year, has exacerbated the situation for homebuyers, leading to increased default intentions [2][4] - The financial stability of the banking sector is under threat, with the non-performing loan rate for real estate-related loans rising to 3.7%, and potential new non-performing loans exceeding 400 billion yuan if defaults continue [4][6] - Government and financial institutions are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and adjusting mortgage interest rates [4][6] Economic Factors - The economic downturn is a significant factor, with the National Development and Reform Commission reporting a GDP growth target of 5.2% for 2025, which has not been met [1][7] - The decline in household income growth has directly affected repayment abilities, particularly for high-debt families where mortgage payments exceed 50% of their income [1][2] Housing Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in housing prices has led to a significant number of homebuyers facing negative equity, with some cities experiencing price drops exceeding 15% [2][4] - The number of unfinished housing projects has surpassed 380, affecting nearly 390,000 homeowners, contributing to the rising default rates [2][4] Financial Sector Response - Major banks have increased provisions for potential bad loans, with state-owned banks setting aside over 280 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 22.6% increase from the previous year [6][9] - Banks are offering various relief measures, including loan repayment extensions and interest rate adjustments, to assist struggling homeowners [6][9] Future Outlook - The future of the mortgage default rate will depend on macroeconomic recovery and stabilization of the real estate market, with expectations that policy effects will lead to a peak and subsequent decline in default rates by the end of the year [7][9] - The transition from the previous housing market model to a more sustainable development framework is essential for addressing the underlying issues of mortgage defaults [9]