Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at controlling pig production capacity, with a focus on improving the supply-demand balance and potentially increasing pig prices in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control, with participation from 25 major pig farming companies, including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1]. - The meeting will cover the current production situation, measures taken by companies to comply with capacity control, and plans for the second half of the year and next year [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - Since late May, multiple policies have been introduced to regulate the pig farming industry, including a halt on expanding breeding sows and controlling the weight of pigs for slaughter [2]. - A target has been set to reduce the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million, bringing the total down to 39.5 million [2]. Group 3: Implementation Status - The average slaughter weight of pigs has been decreasing, with a reported decline of 3.65% as of early September [3]. - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its breeding sow inventory from 3.431 million to 3.3 million by the end of the year, a reduction of 3.82% [3]. - Many provinces have reported a significant decrease in the movement of pigs, with companies ceasing to issue feeding tickets [3]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The current breeding sow inventory stands at 40.42 million, slightly above the target of 39.5 million, indicating room for further reductions [4]. - Pig prices have been fluctuating at low levels, with August averages below 14 yuan per kilogram and recent prices in Guangxi dropping to below 12.5 yuan per kilogram [4]. - If pig prices continue to decline, it may trigger a new round of active capacity reduction, alongside passive reductions driven by policy, leading to an improved supply-demand situation [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, and companies like Lihua Agricultural Technology are recommended for investment due to their stable operations and growth potential in pig production [5]. - Lihua's pig output is expected to exceed 1 million heads in 2024 and reach 2 million in 2025, with a significant reduction in production costs anticipated [5].

相关产品：农业ETF易方达（562900）跟踪的中证现代农业指数中，生猪养殖行业占比 43%，养殖行业 占比 49%，投资者可通过该 ETF 分享生猪养殖行业 "反内卷"、向高质量发展迈进过程中的红利。 热点事件：农业农村部计划于9月16召集25家头部企业召开生猪产能调控座谈会，持续强调 "控产能、 降体重、限二育"，体现了官方对生猪产能调控、稳定猪价的决心，行业出清有望加速。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 产业趋势：生猪养殖产业正经历范式变革，传统"猪周期"波动规律逐渐演变为 "振幅收敛、长度缩短、 波动下降"。政策推动全国能繁母猪存栏量调减至正常保有量区间，行业从粗放式规模扩张转向注重成 本与效率，具备成本优势的企业将更具竞争力。 亮点：在行业变革与政策调控下，生猪养殖产业投资逻辑从博弈周期弹性转向关注企业内生价值，龙头 企业凭借成本控制等优势，有望在新一轮竞争中脱颖而出，行业发展质量将持续提升。当前中证现代农 业指数的PB-LF为2.8倍，处于近5年以来的38%。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss the current situation of pig production and measures for capacity regulation among 25 pig farming enterprises [1] - Since late May, there have been frequent policies regarding capacity regulation in the pig farming industry, including a reduction of 1 million breeding sows to a target of 39.5 million [2] - The average slaughter weight of pigs has been steadily decreasing, with a decline of 3.65% as of the first week of September [2] - The current pig prices are low, with August's average price below 14 yuan/kg and recent prices in Guangxi dropping to under 12.5 yuan/kg [3] Summary by Sections Policy and Regulation - The government has implemented strict measures to control the breeding sow population and reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter [2] - Major enterprises like Muyuan Foods have committed to reducing their breeding sow population, with a planned reduction of 3.82% by the end of the year [2] Market Dynamics - The breeding sow population is currently at 40.42 million, slightly above the normal level, indicating potential for further reductions [3] - The pig price is expected to rise in the future due to a combination of active and passive capacity reductions, improving the supply-demand balance [3] Investment Opportunities - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Lihua Stock, which is expected to benefit from rising chicken prices and a growing pig farming business [6] - The company plans to achieve a pig output of over 1 million heads in 2024, with a projected increase to 2 million heads in 2025 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

Group 1 - The A-share pork sector has seen significant gains, with Lihua Co. rising over 14%, Muyuan Foods increasing over 5%, and other companies like Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group also performing strongly [1] - The Agricultural ETF managed by E Fund, the Livestock ETF, and the Breeding ETF all rose over 2%, reflecting positive market sentiment in the agricultural sector [2] - The Agricultural 50 ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with top-weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others, indicating strong performance in the livestock and agricultural sectors [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity regulation, which is expected to influence the pork market positively [3][4] - The meeting will include 25 companies, including Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope, to analyze the current pig production situation and discuss measures for capacity regulation [4] - Huaxi Securities notes that the current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a low level, suggesting potential for price increases in the medium to long term, with Lihua Co. being a recommended stock due to its strong performance in both chicken and pig farming [4] Group 3 - Zhongyou Securities highlights that the government's focus on capacity control and quality development in the pig farming industry is expected to benefit pig prices in the coming years, with a potential price increase by the second half of 2026 [5] - The report emphasizes that while there are significant cost differences among companies, those with cost advantages are likely to remain profitable [5]

Group 1 - The China Securities Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme Index (931778) has seen an increase of 1.06%, with notable stock performances including TianKang Biological (002100) up by 9.94%, LiHua Co. (300761) up by 9.86%, and Dongfang Tower (002545) up by 4.75% [1] - A meeting is scheduled for September 16 to discuss the regulation of pig production capacity, analyzing the current production situation and measures taken by pig farming enterprises [1] - Guosen Securities indicates that the pig sector is expected to maintain a high price level due to a trend against over-competition, leading to improved cash flow for low-cost leading enterprises and potential increases in long-term dividend ratios [1][2] Group 2 - The domestic beef cycle in 2025 may reach a turning point, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise together [2] - The feed sector, particularly the aquatic feed leader HaiDa Group, is showing significant excess returns amid a steady recovery in industry conditions, with ongoing overseas expansion highlighting its long-term growth potential [2] - The China Securities Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme ETF (159616) closely tracks the Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme Index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in various agricultural sectors [2]

Industry Overview - Pork concept stocks experienced a strong rally on the 11th, with Lihua Co. rising approximately 13%, reaching a nearly one-year high; Tiankang Biological and Muyuan Foods increased over 7%, while Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group rose about 6% [1] - As of September 7, the national average price of live pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range during the week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Institutions indicate that the supply side is experiencing a temporary tightening due to reduced output from group farms at the beginning of the month; however, the goal of reducing weight at group farms has not yet been achieved, coupled with an increase in the inventory levels of standard pigs and large pigs, leading to persistent oversupply pressure [1] - Demand is not expected to improve significantly in the short term, suggesting a continued imbalance with strong supply and weak demand [1] Future Projections - An increase in pig production capacity is anticipated from May 2024, with a peak expected in the second half of 2025, alongside a rise in the number of newborn piglets in the first half of 2025 [1] - Supply pressure is expected to be significant in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter; however, under policy guidance, the decline in pork prices may be relatively moderated [1] Policy Implications - Zhongyou Securities notes that the government has repeatedly emphasized controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting secondary breeding, aiming to guide the pork market towards "high-quality development," reflecting the government's determination to regulate pork production capacity and stabilize prices [1] - The supply of pigs in the second half of 2025 will be determined by production capacity from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with the effects of policies expected to manifest around the second half of 2026, potentially raising the price center of pork [1] Company Performance - There are significant cost differences among companies, with outstanding companies still able to achieve profitability; it is recommended to prioritize companies with cost advantages [1]

Group 1 - The pig farming sector stocks experienced a collective surge, with the Livestock ETF (516760) rising by 2.13% [1] - Key stocks such as Lihua Co. (300761) increased by 12.29%, Muyuan Foods (002714) by 6.56%, and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 6.13% [1] - A meeting on September 16 will be held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss pig production capacity regulation, involving 25 companies including Muyuan and Wens [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities noted that after a period of adjustment, the valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading firms still achieving good profitability [1] - The report anticipates that if supply pressure leads to capacity reduction in the second half of the year, leading companies can leverage their cost advantages to steadily increase market share [1] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector, currently showing a low PE-TTM of 14.11, indicating a historical low valuation [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in A-share pork stocks, driven by upcoming regulatory measures aimed at controlling pig production capacity [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is set to hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control with 25 major companies [1] - The meeting will analyze the current pig production situation and share measures and results from pig farming enterprises regarding capacity control [1] Group 2 - Leading stocks such as Lihua Shares saw an increase of 11.86%, with a market capitalization of 19.7 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 24.49% [2] - Bangji Technology experienced a 9.99% rise, reaching a market cap of 4.816 billion, with a remarkable year-to-date increase of 185.72% [2] - Other notable performers include Tian Kang Biological, Mu Yuan Shares, and Wen's Shares, which rose over 6%, with market caps of 9.966 billion, 316.6 billion, and 132.3 billion respectively [2]

Group 1 - Zhongliang Jiajia Kang (01610) shares increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 1.95 with a trading volume of HKD 49.1153 million [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, plans to hold a meeting on September 16 in Beijing to discuss pig production capacity regulation, inviting 25 companies including Muyuan, Wens, and Zhongliang [1] - CICC previously indicated that the company is improving production efficiency and reducing costs in pig farming, which may enhance cost competitiveness [1] Group 2 - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's liquid biological assets amounted to RMB 2.79 billion, an increase of 16.9% compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The company is exploring a light-asset breeding model, which is expected to support an output of 5 to 6 million pigs in 2025 [1]