Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, growing by 11.1% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit of 16.61 million CNY, up 34.6% [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the distributed power station business and effective cost control measures [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 26.9%, 20.5%, 38.0%, 48.4%, and 22.2% [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 11.1%, 61.5%, 57.7%, and 27.9% [3][12]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3][12]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates revenue from various business segments, including 310 million CNY from power prediction products (+15.6%), 124 million CNY from grid control systems (+28.1%), and 52.49 million CNY from new energy management systems (+17.8%) [8]. - The Q1 2025 revenue growth is significantly influenced by the rapid increase in income from distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and the growing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which will likely enhance its customer base and business growth in 2025 and 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, up 11.1% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant revenue growth of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit increase of 34.6% to 16.61 million CNY [1]. - The growth in distributed power station-related businesses and effective cost control have led to an upward revision of revenue growth expectations [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 27.9% [3]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from various business segments is expected to grow, with power prediction products reaching 310 million CNY (+15.6%), grid-connected control systems at 124 million CNY (+28.1%), and other products showing significant growth [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 indicates a notable acceleration in revenue, primarily driven by the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market and Policy Environment - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable policies and the increasing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with a goal of nationwide coverage by 2025. The "394" document encourages advanced provinces to transition to formal operations by the end of 2025, while non-pilot provinces like Shaanxi are expected to do so by mid-2026 [3][9][10] - New energy sources will face competitive challenges as they enter the market, creating significant development opportunities for third-party entities such as pumped storage and virtual power plants [3][10][12] - The outlook for the spot market construction indicates a comprehensive rollout from 2025 to 2026, with regulatory resources expected to benefit continuously [3][11][12] Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In April, the electricity and public utilities sector rose by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.0% [13][14] Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.80%, an increase of 3.50 percentage points compared to January-February [19][25] - The electricity consumption growth rate for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 9.90%, 3.80%, and 8.40% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 5.00% [19][25] Monthly Electricity Production Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity generation was 7780.20 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%. The breakdown by source shows a 2.30% decrease in thermal power generation, while hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar power saw increases of 9.50%, 23.00%, 8.20%, and 8.90% respectively [4][46][47] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have mandated that by the end of 2025, the electricity spot market should achieve basic nationwide coverage [4][8]

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price increases has started, but the downstream steel mills have strong resistance, and the implementation after the May Day holiday is expected to face difficulties. The coke futures price is expected to maintain a downward trend under the expectation of crude steel production control. - The main - producing area coal mines have normal production and stable supply. The coking coal spot market is weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2505 closed at 1574.0, up 5.0 from the previous day; J2509 closed at 1655T, down 9.0 from the previous day. The 2509 - contract coking profit was 250.1 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Coke Spot**: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. The Rizhao Port coke warehouse receipt price was 1469 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2505 closed at 887.5, up 7.0 from the previous day; JM2509 closed at 932.0, down 15.0 from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Spot**: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of the best - quality warehouse receipt in Shanxi was 946 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [2][3] Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.4, up 4.23 from the previous day, a 1.76% increase. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.5, up 0.07 from the previous day, a 0.15% increase. The inventory of the full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 2.23%. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: The daily average output of 110 coal - washing plants was 53.4, down 1.3 from the previous day, a 2.57% decrease. The inventory of 523 mines increased by 6.38%. [2] Important News - The State Council has issued policies related to the power market, aiming to achieve full coverage of the power spot market by the end of 2025 and relax market price limits in some areas. - Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, and the new import tariff costs will be borne by US customers. - On April 29, the main port iron ore transactions increased by 30.8% month - on - month, and the construction steel transactions of 237 mainstream traders decreased by 7.3% month - on - month. [4][5] Trading Strategies - **Coke**: The second - round price increase is facing difficulties in implementation. The steel mills' iron - making output is high, and the coke demand is strongly supported. The coke enterprises' production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The futures price is expected to decline under the crude - steel production control expectation. - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines' supply is stable, the market trading activity is low, the inventory is increasing, and the short - term coal price is expected to be weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]

【重要资讯】 1、国家主席习近平在上海考察时强调，上海承担着建设国际科技创新中心的历史使命,要抢抓机遇,以服务国家战略为牵引,不断增强 科技创新策源功能和高端产业引领功能,加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地。 2、近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续大力支持消费品 以旧换新。 3、印尼政府在上周末宣布,提高对镍、煤炭、铜、黄金等矿产的特许权使用费税率。其中,镍的税率增幅最大,从原定固定的10%上调 至14%至19%不等,具体税率取决于镍的市场价格。 4、美国总统特朗普20日签署公告，允许对进口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的补偿。补偿金额最高可达汽车 零售价格的3.75%. 这一补偿上限在第二年将降至汽车零售价格的2.5%。 宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基 ...

Group 1: Production and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 500.1 billion kWh, an increase of 27.5% year-on-year, with an average settlement price of 437.37 RMB/MWh (including tax), a decrease of 2.82% [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a generation of 129.58 billion kWh, a decrease of 7.23% year-on-year, and a sales heat volume of 4,017.89 million GJ, down 3.48% [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 235.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.09%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.3 billion RMB, up 181.59% [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Coal Supply - In 2024, the company procured 34.01 million tons of electricity coal, with an average comprehensive benchmark price of 775.12 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.07% year-on-year [1] - The company’s long-term coal supply agreements cover over 80% of its coal needs, with primary sources being Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and local Hebei [5] Group 3: Future Projects and Capacity Expansion - In 2025, the company plans to add a controlled installed capacity of 132,000 kW and an equity installed capacity of 119.5 million kW [8] - Ongoing projects include the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV (2×66,000 kW) and the Renqiu Thermal Power Plant Phase II (2×35,000 kW), both expected to be operational by 2026 [8] Group 4: Market Conditions and Trading - The company reported that approximately 80% of the electricity traded in 2025 was through bilateral negotiations [3] - The Hebei region's spot market began trial operations on March 1, 2025, with the company prepared for normal trading activities [4] Group 5: Dividend Policy and Investor Relations - The company has increased its cash dividend distribution from 30% to 50% of the distributable profits as part of its three-year shareholder return plan (2024-2026) [8]

Market Overview - On April 29, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.13%[3]. - The trading volume on April 30 was 1.04 trillion CNY, a decrease of approximately 40 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1]. Sector Performance - Industries such as beauty care, machinery, media, and light industry saw significant gains, while public utilities, oil, coal, and social services experienced notable declines[1]. - The majority of sectors showed limited upward movement, indicating a weak market structure with most sectors declining over the past five days[1]. Capital Flow - On April 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 4.695 billion CNY, while net inflows into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were 4.105 billion CNY[4]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, general equipment, and automotive parts, while the top three sectors for outflow were electricity, securities, and liquor[4]. Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 81 billion CNY in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade program[5]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is set to accelerate, with specific deadlines for various regions to transition to formal operations by 2025 and 2026[6][7]. Industry Insights - Canalys predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functionalities in the Chinese market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024[12]. - The issuance of new funds has surpassed 300 billion CNY this year, with nearly half allocated to equity funds, indicating a recovery in the active equity fund issuance market[15].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 30 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | Jm2509 合约收于 932.0，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 1.58%。J2509 合约收于 1553.0，环 | | | | | 比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.58%。昨日夜盘，Jm2509 合约收于 920.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | 1.29%，J2509 合约收于 1542.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.68%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国总统特朗普 29 日签署公告，允许对进口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生 | | | | | 产商进行一定程度的补偿。补偿金额最高可达汽车零售价格的 3.75%，这一补偿上限在 ...

插播 ：拒绝鱼龙混杂， 让优质项目脱颖而出！"2024-2025用户侧储能项目TOP10榜单"征集进行中。点击 "阅读原文" 进行申报 行家说储能最新消息， 4月29日，国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能源局综合司发布 了 《关于全面加快电力现货市场建设工作的通知 (发改办体改 〔2025〕394号)》，文件明确了20省电力现货市场运行时间表 ， 要求 2025 年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖并全面开展连续结算运行 。 | 地区 | 电力现货市场运行 时间 | | --- | --- | | 湖北 省 | 2025年6月底前转入正式运行 | | 浙江 省 | 2025年底前转入正式运行 | | 福建、四川、辽宁、重庆、湖南、宁 夏、江苏、河北南网、江西、河南、上 海、吉林、黑龙江、新疆、蒙东、青海 | 2025年底前启动现货市场连续结算试运 行 | | 安徽 省 、陕西 省 | 力争在 2026年6月底前转入正式运行 | 2 0省电力现货市场运行时间表 来源：国家发改委官网；行家说储能绘制 行家说储能认为，这一重磅文件 对储能产业影响深远，主要体现在以下几个方面： 1. 储 能参与电力现货市场的机会扩大 ，储能价 ...

国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《电力辅助服务市场基本规则》。 市场建设要充分考虑各地合理诉求，加快形成工作合力，更好促进资源大范围优化配置。 广发证券发布研报称，3月全社会用电增速回升至4.8%，火电电量降幅收窄，清洁能源贡献度提升。当 前电力板块基本面持续改善，煤价下行叠加容量电价机制优化，火电企业盈利修复确定性增强，水电及 绿电亦具备结构性机会。建议关注三大投资组合：(1)稳健防御型水电及区域能源;(2)弹性火电标的;3)政 策驱动的绿电进攻组合。 国盛证券发布研报称，电力逆周期属性凸显，风格切换与基本面支撑共振，重视布局机会。该行认为， 电力央企的集体增持行动，彰显股东信心。在短期市场波动下市场风格偏好向下，电力逆周期属性凸 显。 其中提出，国家能源局派出机构会同省级价格、能源主管部门要根据《规则》和发改价格〔2024〕196 号文件等有关规定，及时组织市场运营机构制修订辅助服务市场实施细则，维护统一的公平竞争制度， 确保与《规则》要求一致。 电力现货市场连续运行的地区，要完善现货市场规则，适当放宽市场限价，引导实现调峰功能，调峰及 顶峰、调峰容量等具有类似功能的市场不再运行。 国家发展改革委办公厅、国 ...