Group 1 - The US is facing significant economic turmoil due to its tariff policies, leading to a drop in consumer confidence and a historic decline in stock, bond, and currency markets [1] - The IMF warns that US policies could trigger a global economic recession, with the chief economist stating that the unpredictability of US policies is creating systemic risks not seen since the Great Depression of 1929 [1] - Asian countries, deeply integrated into the global supply chain, are particularly affected, with China being the primary focus of US tariffs, and ASEAN countries facing tariffs as high as 49% [1] Group 2 - China is maintaining stability as the world's second-largest economy, focusing on development and cooperation amidst global uncertainties [2] - The recent visit of China's top leader to Southeast Asia resulted in the signing of 108 cooperation agreements, enhancing regional stability and collaboration [2] - China's influence is seen as a stabilizing force in the region, with various countries expressing a desire to strengthen ties and resist US pressure [2][3]

当特朗普宣誓就任美国第47任总统时，他宣称一个新的"黄金时代"已经来临。 在特朗普执政百日之际，那些从字面意义上相信他的话并买入贵金属的投资者获得了丰厚的回报。而那些认真对 待他的承诺并大量购入美国股票和美元的投资者却被辜负了。美国国债的买家也是如此，他们甚至看到美国国债 的避险地位都受到了质疑。 特朗普上任头100天各资产的回报 以下是对特朗普执政头100天各资产表现的具体分析： 股市 尽管近期有所企稳，但标普500指数自特朗普就职以来已下跌约8%，并有望创下半个世纪以来最差的总统任期开 局。 在连续两年实现超过20%的涨幅以及原本预期特朗普会推行促进增长的议程之后，华尔街几乎没有人预见到这种 情况的发生。相反，由于特朗普基本上对与美国公司开展业务的每个国家都加征了关税，随后又反复无常地调整 政策后，市场大幅波动。 新政府并没有通过一系列的减税措施和放松监管来激发美国经济和市场的主导地位，反而是大量的关税举措和地 缘政治的不确定性，引发了近年来历史上最为极端的一些市场波动。 美国股市在特朗普第二任期开始时接近历史高点，如今正朝着自1974年杰拉尔德・福特（Gerald Ford）以来总统 任期的最差百日表现 ...

香港财库局：香港证监会没有发现任何可能引发系统性风险或严重影响金融稳定的行为 智通财经4月29日电，对于美国滥施关税对环球市场带来的波动，香港财经事务及库务局发言人称，香 港证监会直至目前没有发现任何可能引发系统性风险或严重影响金融稳定的行为，未有过度杠杆或头寸 集中的情况。股票市场和股票衍生品市场，没有出现显著增加持仓，亦未有出现淡仓集中或累积的情 况。目前，香港特区政府和监管机构已建构一个"全天候、联动式、跨市场"的实时监控机制，密切监察 市场变化，包括防范尤其在市场信心脆弱时可能突现涌现的风险。倘若市场出现异常情况，亦有足够且 多元化的工具应付，以防范可能出现的系统性风险。香港将保持高度警惕、做好准备，加强对形势发展 的监控、预测及应对部署。 (证券时报) ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing airstrikes by the US military against Houthi forces are escalating the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with significant implications for global asset pricing [1] - The Houthis, supported by Iran, are disrupting maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which is in direct conflict with the US's efforts to maintain "freedom of navigation" [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Impact - The Red Sea crisis is leading to a restructuring of global shipping routes, with 75% of Eurasian container ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a 40% increase in costs for the China-Europe route [3] - The daily oil transport volume through the Suez Canal, which is 1.2 million barrels, faces interruption risks, contributing to an 8% weekly increase in international oil prices [3] - The blockade of the Ras Isa port by Houthi forces has caused a 90% disruption in Yemen's fuel imports, creating a local supply crisis that contrasts with global oil surplus expectations [3] Group 3: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market is exhibiting typical risk-hedging characteristics, maintaining high volatility after surpassing $3,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The US dollar index rebounded strongly after signals from the Federal Reserve regarding prolonged high interest rates, casting a shadow over gold's upward momentum [4] - The scale of US national debt, at $36.6 trillion, and the ongoing unconventional monetary policy are undermining the credibility of the dollar [4] Group 4: Systemic Risks - Three systemic risks threaten market stability: prolonged Red Sea conflict leading to rising oil transport costs, potential liquidity crisis in the US Treasury market prompting policy shifts, and the risk of direct conflict between Saudi forces and Houthis affecting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [5] Group 5: Strategic Insights for Investors - The military actions by the US Navy, while appearing assertive, reveal deeper strategic dilemmas in the Middle East [6] - Investors may need to adjust to a new normal where "geopolitical premiums" on gold and oil become standard, while the dollar's safe-haven status is challenged by policy inconsistencies and debt issues [6] - Future market directions will depend on the recovery of Red Sea shipping routes, signals from the Federal Reserve's May meeting, and Iran's support for Houthi forces [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market sentiment was volatile, and both rebar and hot-rolled coil showed weak oscillations. The supply side saw a continued increase in blast furnace capacity utilization, but the output of each variety stopped rising and declined, with the decline in hot-rolled coil output being more significant. The demand side showed a slight improvement in terminal transactions, and the sharp price drop stimulated a partial recovery in speculative demand. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decrease, although the decline slowed down. Overall, due to the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions during the holiday period, which led to a significant decline in the external market and the spread of market pessimism, rebar and hot-rolled coil may continue their weak pattern [6][27][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Market Trends - **Futures Market**: The main rebar 2510 contract oscillated downward, closing at 3,131 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 3.0734 million lots and an open interest of 1.6654 million lots, an increase of 340,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also oscillated downward, closing at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1.1052 million lots and an open interest of 1.1975 million lots, an increase of 252,300 lots [2][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major domestic regions generally declined. For example, the rebar price in Beijing (theoretical weight) dropped 80 yuan/ton to 3,160 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil price in Tianjin dropped 70 yuan/ton to 3,230 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures-Spot Spread**: The basis of the main rebar 2510 contract against Shanghai's rebar spot was 29.0 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract against Shanghai's hot-rolled coil spot was 8.0 yuan/ton, a change of +12 yuan/ton from the previous week [14][15]. - **Inter-Month Spread**: The spread between rebar 2505 - 2510 was -81 yuan/ton, a change of -14 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between hot-rolled coil 2505 - 2510 was -23 yuan/ton, a change of 0 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. - **Rebar-Hot Rolled Coil Spread**: The spread between Shanghai's spot hot-rolled coil and rebar was 90 yuan/ton, a change of -30.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between hot-rolled coil 2505 and rebar 2505 was 169 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between hot-rolled coil 2510 and rebar 2510 was 111 yuan/ton, a change of -18 yuan/ton from the previous week [17]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 90.19%, a week-on-week increase of 0.56%. In late March 2025, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises in China was 2.125 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous period. The weekly output of various steel products totaled 8.7106 million tons, a decrease of 14,600 tons from the previous week. The output of the five major steel products stopped rising and declined, with the decline in hot-rolled coil output being more significant [27]. 3.2.2 Demand - The trading volume of construction steel products among major domestic traders was 558,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 67,800 tons. Terminal transactions increased slightly week-on-week, and the sharp price drop stimulated a partial recovery in speculative demand [4][33]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major domestic cities was 11.7673 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 387,500 tons. The total inventory of all steel products in domestic steel mills was 4.8388 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 92,700 tons. The combined social and mill inventory was 16.6061 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 294,800 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, and the inventory of each variety decreased [5][35]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the on-screen and spot profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil generally declined. As of this week, the on-screen profit of the rebar 2505 contract was -18.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The on-screen profit of the hot-rolled coil 2505 contract was 100.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot profit of rebar was 7.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.96 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spot profit of hot-rolled coil was 47.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 111.96 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - The prices of major raw materials showed mixed trends this week. Tangshan steel billet dropped 70 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton, the Platts 62% index dropped 3.45 US dollars to 98.35 US dollars per dry ton, and the arrival price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan remained at 1,310 yuan/ton [40]. 3.2.6 Technical Analysis - This week, the main rebar 2510 contract broke through the support level and moved downward, with a bearish moving average arrangement. The upper resistance level was around 3,350 yuan/ton, and the lower support level was around 3,050 yuan/ton. The main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also broke through the support level and moved downward, with a bearish moving average arrangement. The upper resistance level was around 3,450 yuan/ton, and the lower support level was around 3,150 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Recommendations - This week, concerns about systemic risks intensified, and rebar and hot-rolled coil oscillated downward. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, but the output of each variety stopped rising and declined, with the decline in hot-rolled coil output being more significant. Due to recent profit contractions and increased external uncertainties, steel mills were cautious about increasing production. On the demand side, as prices dropped significantly, trading volume improved, and some speculative demand recovered. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but the decline slowed down. Overall, recent market concerns about systemic risks caused by Sino-US trade frictions have been increasing, and the weak oscillation pattern is expected to continue [47].

2025 年 04 月 07 日 螺纹钢：系统性风险担忧加重，弱势震荡 热轧卷板：系统性风险担忧加重，弱势震荡 马亮 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 maliang015104@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅（%） | | | RB2505 | 3,164 | -6 | -0.19 | | 期 货 | HC2505 | 3,337 | -21 | -0.63 | | | | 昨日成交（手） | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动（手） | | | RB2505 | 975,196 | 1,118,015 | -92,850 | | | HC2505 | 346,947 | 551,394 | -93,242 | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3240 | 3250 | ...