业内专家支招:三大应对策略助您从容应对 预定利率即将下调至2.0%,对普通人买保险的影响重大。中国保险行业协会近期明确普通型人身保险产 品预定利率研究值为1.99%,已连续两个季度低于现行2.5%上限,正式触发调整机制。中国人保、中国人 寿等多家险企公告,新备案保险产品预定利率上限将降至2.0%,分红型为1.75%,万能型最低保证利率为 1.0%。现行高利率产品预计于8月31日停售,各公司将在两个月内完成新旧产品切换。 预定利率是保险公司在设计产品时预设的投资回报率,直接影响消费者投保后的收益水平与保费成本。 预定利率越高,年金险未来可领取金额越多,重疾险等保障型产品保费越低。此次利率下调旨在应对潜在 利差损风险,匹配市场利率下行趋势,防范行业系统性风险,保障消费者长远利益。 利率下调带来三大影响:普通人的 "钱袋子" 将受这些冲击 储蓄型保险收益显著缩水。业内人士指出,预定利率是计算年金险未来领取金额的重要基础,一旦下调,同 样保费未来领取养老金将明显减少。增额终身寿险等储蓄型产品现金价值增长放缓,长期财富增值效应 减弱,影响养老储备、子女教育金规划家庭的收益预期。 保障型保险保费面临上涨。从过往情况来看, ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends and changes in the insurance market, particularly focusing on the new universal insurance products launched in 2024, their settlement rates, and minimum guaranteed rates, highlighting the competitive landscape among major insurance companies [1][12]. Summary by Sections Universal Insurance Products - 210 new universal insurance products have been launched in 2024, with 70% of them having a settlement rate of at least 3% [1]. - Among these, 21 products have a settlement rate of 3.3%, while 73 products have a rate of 3.0% [1]. Settlement Rates and Stability - Major insurance companies, referred to as "old six," have maintained a stable settlement rate around 3% for their universal insurance products [1]. - The minimum guaranteed rate for universal insurance is crucial as it sets the lower limit for future settlement rates [1]. Changes in Guaranteed Rates - As of September, the guaranteed rates for various insurance products are set to decrease, with the maximum guaranteed rate for universal insurance dropping to 1.0% [12]. - This change is a response to the current market conditions, where the highest pricing for ordinary insurance products has been adjusted due to regulatory triggers [12]. Market Dynamics - The article notes an increase in activity among insurance agents as they promote the last opportunities to purchase products before the rate changes take effect [12]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on floating yield products, with universal insurance settlement rates being more transparent and directly observable [13].

Core Insights - The insurance industry has shown steady growth in the first half of 2025, driven by sustained demand for insurance savings and the implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy [1][2] - Key indicators such as total assets and premium income have increased, with total assets growing by 9.2% year-on-year and total premium income rising by 5.1% [1][2] - The industry's risk resilience has strengthened, with stable solvency indicators, and an increase in stock asset allocation by insurance funds [1][4] Premium Growth - In the first half of 2025, the original insurance premium income reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with claims and benefits paid amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan, up 9% [2] - The growth in premium income is primarily driven by life insurance, with a significant increase in new policy numbers [2] - The life insurance premium growth is attributed to the integration of banking and insurance channels and a decrease in bank deposit rates, which has maintained customer demand for insurance savings [2][3] Investment Trends - Insurance funds have increased their stock investments, with stock allocation rising from 6.74% to 8.47% year-on-year, reflecting a proactive approach in capital market positioning [1][4][5] - The total stock investment balance reached 3 trillion yuan by the end of the second quarter, marking a 47.57% year-on-year increase [5] - The shift towards equities is driven by low interest rates and regulatory encouragement for long-term funds to enter the market [5] Solvency and Capital Adequacy - The solvency adequacy ratio for the insurance industry has stabilized, with the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio at 204.5% and the core solvency adequacy ratio at 147.8% by the end of the second quarter [6][8] - Despite a general decline in solvency ratios due to stricter capital recognition under the "Solvency II" phase II, recent capital raising efforts have helped improve these ratios [8][9] - The industry has seen 13 companies announce capital increase plans in the first half of the year, totaling 50 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the insurance sector [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China Ping An's acquisition of China Pacific Insurance shares is primarily a financial investment, indicating a shift in insurance stocks towards high dividend asset allocation similar to bank stocks. This move is supported by improvements in the bancassurance channel and the strong beta characteristics of the industry [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the insurance sector, with China Pacific Insurance's H shares having increased by 42.4% since 2025, and a current P/EV ratio of 0.73, suggesting that the long-term value is not fully reflected in current valuations [4]. - The report notes that the recent adjustments in preset interest rates will stimulate premium growth, particularly through "stop-selling" strategies, which are expected to enhance the liability side of the insurance companies [10][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the insurance sector is experiencing multiple catalysts, including short-term premium income growth, narrowing interest spread risks, and improved investment return expectations. The clear reduction in preset interest rates is expected to support the continuous expansion of "stop-selling" premiums [3][14]. Liability Side Analysis - The report discusses the impact of the recent adjustments in preset interest rates, which will lower rates for various insurance products, thereby activating premium growth through the bancassurance channel. The new rates are as follows: ordinary products from 2.5% to 2.0%, participating insurance from 2.0% to 1.75%, and universal insurance from 1.5% to 1.0% [7][10]. Asset Side Analysis - The report indicates that long-term bond yields have started to recover, with the 30-year government bond yield rising from 1.84% to 1.98%. This improvement in fixed-income asset returns is expected to reduce interest spread risks and enhance the valuation of life insurance stocks [11][14].

正文： 低利率持续下行环境下，各主要产品线普降预定利率，分红险降得最少！ 7月25日，中保协公布普通型人身险产品预定利率研究值为1.99%，已经连续2个季度高于研究值25个基点，触发了预定利率下调机制。 这也是自2025年1月，人身险产品预定利率动态调整机制实行以来，行业首次触发预定利率下调的条件。 从9月起，预定利率将全面下调，普通型最高2.0%，下调50个基点。分红型最高1.75%，下调25个基点。万能型最低保证利率最高1.0%，下调50个基 点。 这是因为，分红险产品具有"利益共享、风险共担"特点，这种特点是迄今为止激励性最好的"保险产品"形态之一。 保险公司会向分红保单的投保人派发非保证利益，投保人通过红利分享产品利润。分红险的本质相当于，保险公司会给投保人一个基础的保证利率（预 定利率），在此基础上的三差（利差、死差和费差）则由保险公司和投保人共享，主要分的是利差，其中投保人分得70%的大头。 根据监管规定，保险公司必须至少将70%的可分配盈余分配给保单持有人，这是为了保护投保人的利益，确保投保人能够分享到保险公司的经营成果。 其中，分红结算的投资收益率取决于寿险公司的长期投资收益率。而寿险公司的长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is undergoing significant changes due to the adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products, leading to the suspension of various existing insurance products and a shift towards dividend insurance products as the new market focus [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Adjustment - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been reduced to 1.99%, down from 2.13%, triggering the suspension of multiple insurance products including critical illness insurance and annuities [1][2]. - Major insurance companies, including Taikang Life and Pacific Insurance, have announced the suspension of over 50 products by August 31, 2023, due to the new interest rate limits [2][3]. Group 2: Shift Towards Dividend Insurance - The adjustment has made dividend insurance products more attractive, as their interest rate reduction is less severe compared to other types, positioning them as the main products for insurance companies moving forward [3][4]. - Analysts predict that the demand for dividend insurance will increase, as it offers a combination of guaranteed and floating returns, making it a competitive alternative to traditional savings accounts [3][5]. Group 3: Future Strategies of Insurance Companies - Several insurance companies are focusing on developing dividend insurance products, with strategies aimed at restructuring their product offerings to emphasize floating and guaranteed coverage [4][5]. - The shift towards dividend insurance is expected to alleviate the cost pressures faced by insurance companies, as the relative attractiveness of these products increases in the current market environment [5].

Core Insights - Non-listed life insurance companies in China reported significant growth in both insurance business revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, with net profit increasing by 242% year-on-year [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - A total of 58 non-listed life insurance companies achieved an aggregate insurance business revenue of 727.65 billion yuan and a net profit of 28.64 billion yuan in the first half of the year, both showing year-on-year increases [2][4] - Among these companies, 37 reported profits totaling 32.91 billion yuan, while 21 companies incurred losses amounting to 4.27 billion yuan [2][4] - Leading companies such as Taikang Life and China Post Life Insurance reported revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, with Taikang Life generating 130.97 billion yuan and China Post Life generating 118.07 billion yuan [2][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The significant increase in net profit is attributed to product transformation that reduced liability costs and a recovery in investment income driven by a strong stock market performance [3][5] - The market exhibits a "Matthew Effect," where larger companies like Taikang Life dominate both revenue and profit, with Taikang Life accounting for 56% of the total net profit among the 58 companies [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Smaller insurance companies are encouraged to focus on niche markets and develop specialized products and services to enhance competitiveness, such as home care services and value-added health insurance offerings [5] - Companies need to proactively adjust product structures and pricing rates in response to the ongoing decline in preset interest rates, aiming for sustainable and high-quality growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-listed life insurance companies in China experienced significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, with a total net profit of 29.34 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 236% [4][11][12]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Performance - In the first half of 2025, 59 non-listed life insurance companies reported a net profit of 29.34 billion, an increase of 20.6 billion compared to the same period last year [4][11]. - The leading company, Taikang Life, achieved a net profit of nearly 16 billion, setting a new record and reflecting a significant rise in investment returns [16][18]. - The number of loss-making companies decreased from 30 in 2024 to 21 in 2025, indicating improved overall profitability in the sector [11][12]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Taikang Life's investment return rate rose to 1.8%, up by 0.42 percentage points year-on-year, contributing significantly to its profit increase [18][19]. - Zhongyou Life's new business value rate increased to 27.08%, although its net profit fell to 5.177 billion [20][21]. - Zhongxin Baosheng reported an investment return rate of 1.97%, up by 0.33 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in investment performance [22]. Group 3: Loss-Making Companies - Several companies, including Dingcheng Life, have reported continuous losses, with Dingcheng's net assets dropping to -264 million [25][26]. - The trend of losses is particularly pronounced among smaller insurance firms, which often struggle with investment stability and cost advantages compared to larger companies [29][30]. - The execution of old accounting standards has exacerbated the financial difficulties for some companies, leading to significant net asset declines [30].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown significant market activity, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange optimizing its IPO issuance and pricing mechanisms [1][4] - The insurance sector has outperformed other sub-sectors, with a strong growth in life insurance premiums and a downward adjustment in preset interest rates [4][22] - The securities sector is benefiting from a substantial increase in trading volume and favorable market policies, while the multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase [4][31] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the recent five trading days (July 28, 2025 - August 1, 2025), only the insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the insurance sector down 0.18%, securities down 3.11%, and multi-financial down 3.23% [9] - Year-to-date performance shows the insurance sector up 11.87%, multi-financial up 6.24%, and securities up 1.79%, while the overall non-bank financial sector is up 4.94% [10] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with an average daily trading amount of 19,189 billion yuan in August, up 178% year-on-year [16] - The balance of margin trading reached 19,848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.14% [16] - The average PB valuation for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025E, with recommendations for leading firms like CITIC Securities and Dongfang Caifu [21] 2.2 Insurance - The preset interest rate for traditional insurance has been adjusted down to 1.99%, triggering a reduction in preset rates for various insurance products [22] - Life insurance premiums showed strong growth, with a 5.4% increase in original premium income year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [27] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a valuation range of 0.60-0.91 times 2025E P/EV, indicating a "Buy" rating [30] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [31] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 740 million contracts in June 2025, with a transaction value of 52.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.91% [38] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with a focus on innovation and risk management as key future directions [44] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial [47] - Key companies recommended include China Ping An, New China Life, China Life, CITIC Securities, and Dongfang Caifu, as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and economic recovery [47]

Group 1: Overall Insurance Industry Performance - The insurance industry achieved original premium income of 3.74 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The chief analyst at Minsheng Securities anticipates that dividend insurance will gradually become mainstream in the life insurance sector, driven by regulatory guidance towards differentiated and refined development [1] Group 2: Life Insurance Sector - Life insurance companies reported original premium income of 2.77 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [2] - In June alone, life insurance premium income surged by 16.3% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall growth rate for the first half [2] - The premium income for life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance reached 2.29 trillion yuan, 216 billion yuan, and 461.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 0.1%, and a decline of 6.1% [2] - The strong performance of life insurance in June, with a premium income of 414.1 billion yuan, marked a 21% year-on-year increase, reversing earlier negative growth trends [2] - The decline in bank deposit rates and market interest rates has highlighted the long-term, stable return advantages of insurance products, contributing to a "rush to stop selling" sentiment in June [2] Group 3: Health Insurance Sector - Health insurance premium income in June was 735 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [3] - The short-term fluctuations in health insurance premiums are attributed to the "Three Medical" reform's cost control, which has reduced the use of high-priced drugs and medical devices, impacting perceived value [3] - The transformation of health insurance products is ongoing, with traditional medical insurance undergoing adjustments while mid-to-high-end medical insurance is still in the cultivation phase [3] Group 4: Property Insurance Sector - Property insurance companies generated original premium income of 964.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [4] - The premium income from auto insurance was 450.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4] - In June, the growth rate of auto insurance premiums was 5%, slightly higher than in May [4] - The production and sales of automobiles in June reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 13.8% [4] - The penetration of new energy vehicles, which accounted for 45.8% of total new car sales, is expected to enhance the growth momentum of auto insurance premiums due to higher average premiums compared to traditional fuel vehicles [4] - Non-auto insurance business saw health insurance as the largest segment, with premium income of 160.9 billion yuan, growing by 9.1% year-on-year, while accident insurance experienced the highest growth rate of 12.4% [4] - Leading insurance companies are expected to maintain rapid premium growth and better business quality, with lower claims ratios in auto insurance enhancing profitability compared to smaller firms [4]