Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old for new" consumption policy in July, ensuring orderly implementation throughout the year [2] - A total of 200 billion yuan will be allocated to support equipment upgrades through special long-term government bonds, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already allocated to around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [2] - Consumers can receive subsidies for purchasing new digital products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, with a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price, capped at 500 yuan per item [2] Group 2 - The implementation of vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidies will be managed at the provincial level, with financial support being allocated based on performance in 2024 [3] - Subsidies for new vehicles will vary based on the price range, with fuel vehicles receiving up to 13,000 yuan and new energy vehicles up to 15,000 yuan depending on the price bracket [3] - Consumers can receive a 15% subsidy for purchasing energy-efficient home appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item [4] Group 3 - A 15% subsidy will be provided for materials used in partial renovations of old houses, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per household [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation is stable, with a focus on maintaining progress while seeking stability amid a complex external environment [2] - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the service production index grew by 6.2%, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate in 2024, while fixed asset investment showed steady growth, with manufacturing investment up by 8.5% [2] Policy Implementation - The "Two New" policies are being actively implemented, with significant funding allocated for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs [3] - A total of 200 billion yuan has been allocated for long-term special government bond support for equipment updates, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already distributed across 7,500 projects [3] - The sales of goods related to the old-for-new consumer program exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year, indicating the effectiveness of the policy [3] Employment and Investment - The government has initiated a new action plan to promote employment and income for key groups through labor-intensive projects, with 16.5 billion yuan allocated for 3,900 projects expected to create jobs for 380,000 people [4] - The proportion of labor remuneration in central project funding has been increased from over 30% to 40%, enhancing support for local employment [4][5] Energy Supply - The national power supply and demand balance is generally secure, with an expected increase of about 10 million kilowatts in peak electricity load this summer [6] - The government is taking measures to enhance energy supply capabilities and has coordinated efforts to ensure stable production and supply of coal and natural gas [6]

5月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2352.21亿元、同比增长8.5%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，今年以来呈 逐月加快态势，高于全国2.1个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长16.2%，比上月加快1.3 个百分点，高于全国8.2个百分点。1-5月，全省社会消费品零售总额11820.14亿元、增长7.5%，比上月 加快0.3个百分点，高于全国2.5个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长14.3%，比1-4月加快 0.4个百分点，高于全国8.0个百分点。超八成商品零售保持增长。5月份，在限额以上单位的23类商品 中，有19类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面达82.6%、与上月持平。两新政策效应持续释放。5月 份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位机电产品及设备类商品零售额增长 46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、可 穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%、 27.0%，对全省限额以上单位零售额增长贡献率达56.8%、同比提高23.6个百分点。基本生活消费品增长 较快。5月 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [23] Core Insights - The medical device sector is experiencing a significant recovery in bidding activities, driven by ongoing equipment updates and the active participation of county-level medical communities [3][5] - The overall scale of new equipment bidding in China has shown a month-on-month improvement since January 2025, with procurement amounts reaching 174 billion, 113 billion, 140 billion, 153 billion, and 134 billion yuan from January to May, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +41%, +77%, +113%, +85%, and +69% [3][10] - Major companies in the industry are benefiting significantly from the recovery in bidding activities, with notable increases in procurement amounts for ultrasound, CT, MRI, and other imaging devices [4][11] Summary by Sections Equipment Update and County Medical Community Efforts - Since March 2025, numerous county medical communities have initiated medical equipment update projects, leading to large-scale procurement orders worth billions of yuan [3][10] - The procurement scope includes various imaging devices such as CTs, ultrasound diagnostic equipment, and MRIs, with significant activity reported in several provinces [3][10] Procurement Scale and Growth - In May 2025, procurement amounts for various devices were as follows: ultrasound 16.63 billion yuan (yoy +103%), CT 18.54 billion yuan (yoy +108%), MRI 15.06 billion yuan (yoy +102%), DR 4.12 billion yuan (yoy +236%), DSA 6.96 billion yuan (yoy +79%), and gastrointestinal endoscopes 3.81 billion yuan (yoy +58%) [4][11][14] Domestic Company Trends - Domestic companies are showing a bidding trend that aligns with the overall industry, with notable performances in May 2025: Mindray 8.19 billion yuan (yoy +56%), United Imaging 7.83 billion yuan (yoy +11%), Kaili 1.10 billion yuan (yoy +137%), and Aohua 0.35 billion yuan (yoy +242%) [4][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies that are enhancing their high-end and intelligent medical device offerings, such as Mindray, United Imaging, Kaili, and Aohua [5][21]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core viewpoint indicates that the economy remains resilient, with signs of improvement in core CPI stability and marginal PMI recovery due to ongoing "stabilization growth" measures [2] - In May, the CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -2.7% to -3.3%. The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.0% to 49.5% [5][6] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from the previous month, while M2 growth slowed to 7.9% [2][17][20] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The May CPI showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. Core CPI remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [5] - The decline in energy prices negatively impacted non-food items, but travel service prices saw a significant rebound, supporting the core CPI [5] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 3.3% was below market expectations, with traditional industry prices mostly declining while new momentum industries saw price increases [6] - Factors affecting PPI include falling international oil prices, seasonal declines in energy and raw material prices, and the impact of consumption and equipment renewal policies [6] Group 4: PMI Developments - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment, driven by tariff delays and proactive macro policies [9] - The production index rose to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [9] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in May decreased to 3.7%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [13] - High-tech industry investments showed strong growth, particularly in information services and aerospace manufacturing [13] Group 6: Credit and M2 Analysis - In May, new credit issuance was 620 billion, reflecting a decrease in consumer loans and a recovery in corporate short-term loans [17] - M2 growth slowed to 7.9%, influenced by a decrease in deposit attractiveness and slower fiscal fund release [20]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level this year[4] - Retail sales in May reached 4.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding market expectations of 4.85%[5] Industrial Sector Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase in added value, contributing 54.3% to overall industrial growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing growth slowed to 8.6%, down by 1.4 percentage points from April, primarily due to high base effects and reduced policy stimulus[4] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by only 0.6% year-on-year, indicating weakened external demand[4] Investment Trends - Equipment and tool investment surged by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth, driven by policies like "old-for-new" and equipment upgrades[4] - Real estate investment in May fell by 10.7%, with residential investment declining by 10.0%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the property sector[5] - Infrastructure investment recorded a growth rate of 10.42%, supported by special bonds and long-term treasury bonds, despite a slight decline from April[5] Consumer Behavior - Essential consumer goods such as grain and oil saw a growth rate of 14.6%, indicating resilience in basic consumption[5] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories like home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 53.0% and 25.6% respectively[5] - Automotive retail sales grew by only 1.1%, significantly lower than the overall retail growth, primarily due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles[5] Future Outlook - Industrial growth may slow marginally in June, with high-frequency data indicating a shift towards the off-season for several upstream industries[5] - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain high, driven by policy support for equipment updates and green transformation, but may face constraints from low export demand[5] - Retail sales growth may slightly decline, with ongoing policy support being a key factor in sustaining consumer demand[5]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a slight decline in industrial production, a rebound in consumption, and a comprehensive drop in investment, with real estate continuing to decline [1][15]. Demand Side Analysis - External demand is significantly impacted by tariff fluctuations, leading to a continued decline in exports to the U.S., while transshipment trade and European recovery support exports in a mid-high range [1][2]. - Domestic investment is broadly declining, influenced by weak real estate and infrastructure investments, while consumption is showing signs of recovery due to trade-in programs and consumption festivals [1][2]. Production Side Analysis - Industrial production growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, primarily due to tariff disruptions affecting export strength [3]. - The service production index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year, benefiting from the recovery in consumption [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [5][14]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, with information services and aerospace manufacturing seeing substantial year-on-year growth [9]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth rose to 6.4% in May, indicating enhanced consumption momentum, with significant contributions from home appliance and communication sectors benefiting from trade-in programs [10]. - Service consumption also showed recovery, with tourism-related growth accelerating and restaurant income increasing [10]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate fell to -3.3% year-on-year, with new housing sales declining while prices continue to rise [14]. - The construction area growth rate rebounded significantly, although new construction area growth remains negative [14]. Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a stable employment situation despite external disruptions [15]. - There is cautious optimism regarding external demand, with potential benefits from future tariff negotiations and European recovery efforts [15].

Group 1 - The macro policies have been effective in enhancing market vitality and improving corporate profitability and expectations [2] - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - In April alone, profits grew by 3%, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2 - In May, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture saw year-on-year growth between 25.6% and 53%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1] - The production of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding, and boiler manufacturing saw significant year-on-year increases of 28.6%, 12.8%, and 11.8% respectively in May [1]

宏 观 研 究 宏观周聚焦 2025 年 06 月 16 日 地方国补，缘何"暂停"？ ——宏观专题报告 近期部分地区国补额度告急，引发市场关注。与 2024 年相比，当前"以旧换新"机制有 何变化，为何部分地区国补使用较快？"以旧换新"政策效果如何？本文分析，可供参考。 ⚫ "以旧换新"，今年有何不同？支持力度和补贴范围均提升，额度分配机制调整。 与 2024 年相比，2025 消费品"以旧换新"政策在资金支持力度和补贴范围上均有显著 提升。超长期特别国债用于消费品"以旧换新"规模增至 3000 亿元。补贴范围明显扩大。 汽车报废更新将符合条件的国四排放标准燃油乘用车纳入可申请报废更新补贴范围；家电 领域新增微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等。并新增手机等数码产品购新补贴。 "以旧换新"资金分配方面，中央对各地补贴比例不变，但额度分配有所调整。2025 年 "以旧换新"资金分配将向 2024 年消费品以旧换新工作成效较好的地区适度倾斜。且年 度执行中，一些省份会根据各市资金需求变化较大、进度不均衡问题对国补资金作适当调 整，对以旧换新资金需求大、支出进度快、使用效果好的地区，调剂增加国补资金额度。 截至 5 ...

Group 1 - Hebei has expanded its "old for new" program to include four new categories of home appliances, such as microwaves and water purifiers, along with eight new small appliances like coffee machines and floor washers, encouraging merchants to implement promotional policies [1] - In 2023, Hebei's "old for new" program has utilized over 20 billion yuan in subsidies, achieving sales exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] - Jiangxi and Hainan are promoting seasonal sales for refrigerators and air conditioners, encouraging merchants to offer linked promotions and "old for new" services to benefit consumers [1] Group 2 - Guangdong is enhancing the market for new energy vehicles and automotive products through a combination of government and enterprise subsidies [1] - Qinghai has increased the number of categories eligible for agricultural machinery scrapping subsidies from 14 to 25, focusing on improving subsidy standards for scrapping hand tractors and updating seeders and combine harvesters [1] - In 2023, Qinghai has provided subsidies for over 2,600 new agricultural machines, with a year-on-year increase of 30% in purchase quantity [1] Group 3 - Various regions are intensifying the implementation of "two new" policies to optimize processes and enhance services, stimulating market vitality and releasing consumer potential [2] - The optional consumption ETF closely tracks the CSI All-Share Consumer Index, with top five constituent stocks including Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with automotive and home appliances accounting for over 78% [2] - As the national economy continues to improve, consumer disposable income is rising, leading to a shift in spending from food and clothing to transportation, healthcare, and consumer electronics, highlighting the investment value of the optional consumption sector [2]