货币政策正常化

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日本公务员将迎来34年来最大幅度加薪
财联社· 2025-08-07 11:03
Group 1 - The Japanese government is set to implement the largest salary increase for civil servants in 34 years, with an average monthly basic salary increase of 3.62%, leading to a total salary increase of 5.1% for this year [1][2] - This salary adjustment will affect approximately 280,000 civil servants, which is seen as a positive development for the Bank of Japan as it seeks to establish a sustainable wage growth to support inflation [2][5] - The salary increase is influenced by the recent wage negotiations in the private sector, where companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25%, marking the largest increase in 34 years [5][6] Group 2 - The Japanese government has been under pressure to provide competitive salaries in the public sector to attract and retain talent, especially in light of a declining population and difficulties in recruiting young professionals [5][6] - A report indicated that the number of recent graduates applying for public sector jobs has reached a historical low, prompting the government to propose an increase in starting salaries by over 5% [6][7] - The estimated cost of implementing the proposed salary increase for civil servants is approximately 334 billion yen (about 2.3 billion USD) [7]
紧随普通“打工人”,日本公务员将迎来34年来最大幅度加薪
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-07 07:20
Group 1 - The Japanese government is set to implement the largest salary increase for civil servants in 34 years, with an average monthly basic salary increase of 3.62%, leading to a total salary increase of 5.1% for this year [1][2] - This adjustment will impact approximately 280,000 civil servants, which is seen as a positive development for the Bank of Japan as it seeks to achieve broader and more sustainable wage growth to stabilize inflation [2][5] - The salary adjustments for public sector employees are typically based on trends in the private sector, and this significant increase is attributed to the recent wage negotiations during the "Shuntō" (spring labor negotiations) [5][6] Group 2 - The Japanese Trade Union Confederation reported that companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25%, marking the largest increase in 34 years [6] - The Japanese government has been under pressure to provide competitive salaries in the public sector to attract and retain talent, especially as the population declines and recruiting young professionals becomes more challenging [6] - The estimated cost of implementing the proposed salary increase for civil servants is approximately 334 billion yen (about 2.3 billion USD) [6] Group 3 - A recent survey indicates that just over half of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in early 2026, with strengthening wage data providing support for the normalization of monetary policy [7]
日本央行压力山大,重量级政坛高官警告:不要贸然加息
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-06 11:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's central bank must exercise caution regarding interest rate hikes due to the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the fragile economy [1][2] - Saito Ken emphasizes that the Bank of Japan should act carefully to avoid cooling the economy, which is currently trying to recover from decades of low growth and inflation [2][3] - The Bank of Japan ended a decade-long stimulus program last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January, but concerns about inflation remain [3] Group 2 - Political uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs is overshadowing Japan's economic outlook [4] - Saito Ken calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida after the ruling coalition's poor performance in the recent Senate elections, which has weakened their control over the legislature [5][6] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) needs to seek a stable coalition government under new leadership to maintain consistent policies [6]
日企并购潮捧出最大赢家!摩根大通(JPM.US)在日利润创7年新高
智通财经网· 2025-08-06 03:09
智通财经APP注意到,摩根大通(JPM.US)去年在日本市场超越全球竞争对手,得益于该国推动企业治理改革引发的交易热潮。 监管文件显示,截至3月31日的财年,这家美国投行在当地证券子公司的净利润增长逾一倍至456亿日元(3.09亿美元),创至少七年来新高,扭转了上年下滑 态势,主要因并购咨询和承销业务激增。 近年来日本企业加速收购及剥离非核心资产,为投行创造更多机会。这一趋势也加剧了从花旗集团到德意志银行等国际机构的抢人大战。 摩根大通的利润因交易热潮而飙升 摩根士丹利当地证券子公司同期营收创下1532亿日元纪录,部分得益于债券股票承销及销售收入的增长,但因配合交易量增加计提负债准备金,净利润下降 2.3%至319亿日元。 法国巴黎银行经纪业务部门利润则因佣金下滑减少2.9%至206亿日元。 这些数据与其他国际大行截至12月31日的年报形成反差。去年8月日本央行加息后,该国市场出现数十年来最剧烈波动,股市创1987年10月股灾以来最大跌 幅,债券价格震荡令部分交易商受损(尽管股市已回升)。 | Net Profit (billion | | Net Revenue (billion | Headcount ( ...
加息预期低迷拖累日元 关键经济数据成转机
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-04 04:03
美元兑日元卖盘推动汇价向147.69的20日简单移动平均线迈进,随后又跌破了147.50关口。随着交易日 接近尾声,该货币对在147.50下方企稳。 目前投资者对日本央行年底前加息的预期概率仅为70%,反映出市场对货币政策正常化进程的疑虑。日 本央行在7月政策会议上未释放明确的紧缩信号,进一步加剧了日元的疲软走势。市场焦点现已转向本 周即将公布的薪资增长和家庭支出数据,这些关键指标将成为判断日本经济复苏力度的重要依据。分析 人士指出,若6月薪资增速和消费支出数据表现强劲,可能重燃市场对日本央行政策转向的预期,从而 为持续承压的日元提供支撑。在当前环境下,日本国内经济数据表现将成为影响日元短期走势的决定性 因素,投资者需密切关注相关数据发布及日本央行的政策表态。 周一(8月4日)亚盘早盘,美元兑日元上涨,目前交投于147附近,截止北京时间11:08分,美元兑日元 报价147.67,上涨0.21%,上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。近期日元兑美元汇率持续走弱,市场 对美日贸易协议能否有效提振日本经济持谨慎态度。 ...
植田和男乐观表态助日元企
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-04 04:03
周一(8月4日)亚盘早盘,美元兑日元上涨,目前交投于147附近,截止北京时间11:14分,美元兑日元 报价147.60,上涨0.16%,上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。日本央行行长植田和男在最新政策会 议后的记者会上释放积极信号,指出日本经济正处于"温和复苏"轨道。 美元兑日元动能已略微转向看空。若美元兑日元跌破147.00,下一个支撑位将是7月24日的波动低点 145.85,紧接着是100日与50日简单移动平均线的交汇点145.71。若跌破该位置,将面临144.00关口的考 验。 植田特别强调,新达成的美日贸易协定有效降低了宏观经济不确定性,为日本经济前景注入稳定性。最 新公布的6月经济数据印证了这一判断:工业产出环比增长1.7%,超出市场预期;零售销售同比增长 2.0%,显示国内消费保持韧性。这些积极数据强化了市场对日本经济持续复苏的信心,也进一步巩固 了投资者对央行后续加息的预期。受此影响,日元汇率获得有力支撑,兑美元汇率从近期低点显著反 弹。分析人士认为,若经济复苏态势延续,日本央行可能在年底前启动货币政策正常化进程,这将为日 元提供持续上行动力。 ...
经济超预期+协议落地 日本央行10月加息预期升温
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-04 04:03
周一(8月4日)亚盘早盘,美元兑日元上涨,目前交投于147附近,截止北京时间11:43分,美元兑日元 报价147.67,上涨0.21%,上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。汇丰银行经济学家在最新研究报告中 指出,美日贸易协定的及时达成有望为日本央行货币政策正常化进程扫除障碍。 报告分析认为,该协议有效缓解了日本经济面临的外部不确定性,为经济增长提供了更稳定的环境。基 于这一积极变化,汇丰预计日本央行将在10月政策会议上加息25个基点,将政策利率上调至0.75%。经 济学家强调,2023年日本经济表现略好于预期,这为央行推进加息提供了更充分的经济基本面支撑。报 告同时指出,随着贸易环境改善和国内需求保持韧性,日本央行在论证进一步加息必要性时将处于更有 利的位置。不过,汇丰也提醒,全球经济增长放缓和金融市场波动仍是影响日本央行决策的重要变量, 投资者需密切关注未来几个月的关键经济数据表现。 美元兑日元必须持续突破148.80–149.40阻力区间,才能为涨向151.00整数关口和61.8%斐波那契回撤位 (151.60)铺路。突破该水平后,该货币对可能进一步上探153.15。 ...
功过分明的鲍威尔能否精彩退场
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-01 06:45
Group 1 - The article discusses the complex tenure of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting his balancing act between traditional monetary policy and innovative approaches during unprecedented economic challenges [1][3][4] - Powell's leadership is characterized by significant policy shifts, including the introduction of unlimited quantitative easing and emergency interest rate cuts in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which helped restore market confidence [4][5] - The restructuring of the monetary policy framework under Powell's leadership emphasizes inclusive employment and an average inflation target, marking a departure from previous static inflation goals [5][6] Group 2 - The article notes that Powell faced intense political pressure, particularly from former President Trump, which tested the independence of the Federal Reserve [13][14] - Powell's decisions during the pandemic, while initially effective, led to significant misjudgments regarding inflation, resulting in a rapid increase in interest rates that had widespread economic repercussions [9][10] - The article highlights the structural issues exacerbated by Powell's policies, including wealth inequality and the disproportionate impact of inflation on lower-income groups [10][11] Group 3 - The article concludes with a reflection on Powell's legacy, suggesting that his tenure will be remembered for both its bold innovations and the costly errors made in responding to inflationary pressures [8][12][18] - The potential for a new Federal Reserve chair to be appointed before Powell's term ends indicates a shift in leadership dynamics that could influence future monetary policy [18]
【UNFX课堂】全球货币政策步入“大分化”时代:五大央行路径殊途,重塑市场格局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 05:24
全球经济的同步叙事已然落幕。随着各国从疫情后的通胀冲击中走出,世界主要中央银行正 踏上截然不同的政策路径,昔日一致对外的紧缩阵线已不复存在。这种由各国国内经济状况 主导的"大分化",正深刻重塑全球资本流动、汇率及资产配置的未来图景。 高位观望的"暂停者":美欧央行的如履薄冰 在当前全球货币政策的棋局中,美联储(Fed)和欧洲中央银行(ECB)占据了相似的战略位置:它们 都已将利率提升至被认为是"限制性"的水平,并暂时按下了"暂停"键。 它们的目标一致:在不引发严重经济衰退的前提下,确保通胀被彻底驯服。然而,相似的立场之下,两 者面临的挑战和内部的博弈却各有侧重,使得它们的"暂停"显得如履薄冰。 美联储:鹰派立场下的内部分歧 美联储在7月的会议上将联邦基金利率维持在了 4.25%至4.50% 的区间,这标志着其紧缩周期的平台 期。主席鲍威尔的公开表态延续了"更高更久"(Higher for Longer)的鹰派基调,强调抗击通胀的斗争 尚未结束。 他指出,尽管整体通胀已从峰值回落,但服务业通胀(特别是剔除住房的核心服务通胀)依然顽固,劳 动力市场的紧张状况也未完全缓解。这构成了美联储维持高利率的核心理由。 然而 ...
日本央行加息在即 10月或终结负利率政策
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-01 04:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan is likely to initiate interest rate hikes by the end of 2023 due to persistent inflation exceeding expectations [1] - Recent inflation performance has led the Bank of Japan to significantly raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.5% during the July policy meeting [1] - The removal of the downward risk language in inflation forecasts indicates a significant increase in confidence among decision-makers regarding sustained price increases [1] Group 2 - A virtuous cycle of wage growth and inflation is forming, with structural changes in corporate pricing behavior reinforcing the basis for monetary policy normalization [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy rate from the current -0.1% at the October policy meeting, marking the first rate hike since 2007 [1] - The central bank is anticipated to adopt a gradual tightening path while closely monitoring the potential impact of economic slowdowns in the US and Europe on Japan's external demand [1] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has reached a high near previous peaks, with short-term upward momentum approaching overbought territory [2] - The MACD indicator is consistently above the zero line, with the fast line (DIFF) at 0.908, higher than the slow line (DEA) at 0.784 [2]