Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market has experienced significant declines, reaching a four-year low, primarily due to foreign capital withdrawal and concerns over economic stability amid rising geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal challenges [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Indonesian Composite Index fell sharply, dropping 4.65% on March 24, 2023, and briefly falling below 6000 points for the first time since 2021, before closing down 1.5% at 6164 points [1]. - Since reaching a historical high of 7910 points on September 20, 2022, the Indonesian stock market has declined by 22% over the past six months, making it one of the worst-performing markets globally [4]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Withdrawal - There has been a collective withdrawal of foreign capital from Southeast Asia, with the MSCI ASEAN Index dropping 10% from its peak last year. Indonesia has seen nearly $1.8 billion in capital outflows this year alone [6]. - The withdrawal is attributed to specific issues within each Southeast Asian country, which have become more apparent as investors reassess their expectations [6]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The threat of increased tariffs from the U.S. under Trump's administration has heightened risk perceptions for emerging markets like Indonesia, which is part of the "Fragile Five" countries sensitive to foreign capital flows [7]. - Recent deflationary trends have raised concerns about consumer spending, with Indonesia experiencing its first deflation in 25 years as the consumer price index fell year-on-year [8]. - The government's ambitious free meal program, costing an estimated $28 billion annually, has led to significant fiscal strain, resulting in a 20% year-on-year decline in national revenue in the first two months of the year [8]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Indonesia's MSCI rating to "underweight," while Goldman Sachs has lowered its rating from "overweight" to "hold," further undermining investor confidence [9].

与此同时，印尼卢比兑美元下跌0.5%至16470。 那么，究竟发生了什么？有市场消息称，印尼财政部长将辞职，但随后印尼方面该传闻纯属骗局。Timefolio Asset Management投资组合经理Nigel Peh表示，消费 者对开斋节假期的消费公司和疲软的销售感到担忧，"许多当地人削减了可自由支配的支出。"他表示，家庭支出疲软和通货紧缩数据也影响了市场情绪。 突然崩了 今天，印尼股市突然崩跌。JCI指数大跌5%。午后复盘之后，跌幅继续扩大至6%以上。印度尼西亚证交所一度暂停股票交易。 | 5日 ▼ 5分钟 15分钟 30分钟 60分钟 日线 更多周期 = 9 | 竟价 ▼ 叠加 ▼ | 画线 | 经典 隐藏 > 2 | | | 印尼雅加达综合 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 印尼雅加达综合 分时 成交量 | | | | | | IKSE | | | | | | | 7.11% | | 6076.08 - 395.87 | | | | | | | 5.33% | | | | | | | | | | 最新 | 6076.08 ...