今年银行股代替了长期国债。 去年长期国债涨疯，今年它们休息了，长期国债从今年2月开始调整，到目前基本是一个持平的水平， 等于今年入市的投资者，在国债市场打了个平手。 但是银行股却相反，2025年至今没有一家银行企业出现下跌，全部都是在上涨。今年有18家银行先后创 出历史新高。有16家银行涨幅超过20%，有32家银行涨幅超过10%。国有大行工农中建全部创历史新 高。申万银行指数近一年涨幅为35.49%，位列行业第11位；近两年涨幅为52.11%，位列行业首位。 由此看，今年银行股上涨的逻辑和去年长期国债上涨的逻辑是一致的，由于经济下行压力大，好的资产 难觅，人们更倾向于高分红的行业，长期债券的利息更高，相对风险较低，所以资金进入长期债券。 去年以来降准降息预期浓厚，央行停止了国债买卖，形成预期差，导致今年长期债券在前半年市场处于 调整和波动中。投资者只能寻找具有相同资质的替代性资产，银行股的高分红能够替代长期债券的高利 率，而稳定的股价更类似于长期债券。 投资长期债券的资金和购买银行股的资金是一样的。保险资金是购买长期债券的主力。前几年主要配置 地方城投债、房地产债券后来转移到长期债券，今年以来长期债券调整，他 ...

Group 1 - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank successfully issued the 2025 Financial Bonds (First Phase) with a total scale of RMB 30 billion and a fixed interest rate of 1.70% [1] - The funds raised from the financial bonds will be used to meet asset-liability allocation needs, enhance funding sources, and support credit investment to promote the development of the real economy [1] - The bonds were recorded on July 8, 2025, and completed issuance on July 10, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank successfully issued the 2025 Green Financial Bonds (First Phase) with a total scale of RMB 40 billion and a fixed interest rate of 1.67% [3] - The funds raised from the green bonds will be entirely allocated to green industry projects, focusing on increasing credit investment in energy-saving and environmental protection industries, clean production industries, clean energy industries, and green upgrades of infrastructure [3] - The bonds were recorded on July 8, 2025, and completed issuance on July 10, 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global wealth has been declining, with a 2.4% drop in total private net wealth and a 3.6% decrease in per capita wealth, equating to a loss of approximately $3,200 per person [1][2] Group 1: Global Economic Context - The debt-driven development model established post-World War II is no longer sustainable, leading to a universal wealth shrinkage across nations [1][2] - Global public debt is projected to exceed $102 trillion in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for one-third of this total [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Debt Policy - The recent passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan" will increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion, indicating a refusal by U.S. elites to address the debt issue responsibly [2][3] - The U.S. is currently in a deleveraging phase, while other countries are opting for different paths, such as reducing debt levels [4][5] Group 3: Debt Cycle Analysis - The debt cycle consists of five stages, with the U.S. currently in the fourth stage of deleveraging, while continuing to expand its debt [3][6] - Historical debt crises have shown that high debt levels can lead to significant economic repercussions, particularly for the U.S., which is the largest debtor nation [6][7] Group 4: Dollar Depreciation - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 10% this year, with potential further declines of up to 50% anticipated due to both active and passive factors [7][8] - Historical instances of dollar depreciation have often preceded significant economic crises, suggesting that the current situation may lead to substantial market impacts [8][9] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to dollar-denominated assets and consider reallocating funds into safe-haven assets such as commodities and high-dividend stocks [9][10] - The current market trend indicates a strong preference for high-dividend bank stocks, reflecting a shift towards risk mitigation strategies [10]

作为一名固收投资经理，置身近几年的债券市场，可谓是有喜有忧。喜的是债券市场依然还是处于偏强的 走势中，债券的配置依然可以博取一定的资本利得收益；忧的是随着低利率环境的到来，债券产品未来配 置的收益显然无法达到投资者预期，投资难度越来越大了。 实际上，回顾2025年上半年乃至近几年债券市场的行情，都可以发现 中长期低利率环境的拐点还未到来 ，即使是今年2至3月因为资金收紧导致的市场回调，4月关税风云带来的利率快速重回下行轨道。因此， 这几年业内经常有"每逢回调都是买入机会"的说法，意思是债市长期牛市的格局不变，但个别时点波动率 会大幅上升。不过，值得关注的是，截至今年6月，市场并没有突破之前的利率低点，其实已经反应了短 期内利率进一步下行空间有限的这一市场共识。 低利率环境下，所有的固收投资经理都需要面对一个重要难题——如何获取超额收益？债券投资的三板 斧，无非就是信用债的挖掘、拉升久期、增加杠杆。回顾这几年的市场行情，2023年主要是"化债"背景下 的信用债、城投债行情，投资策略可以挖掘信用债，增加杠杆；2024年则是 "适度宽松货币政策"背景下 的长久期利率债行情，投资策略可以大幅增加久期，买入30年国债； ...

行为金融学基础： 当市场情绪到达极端值（过度乐观 / 悲观），价格与内在价值出现断裂性偏离，形成 "认知套利空间"。 ▶ 反转本质：利用投资者心理崩溃 / 狂热导致的短期错误定价，押注均值回归。 ▶ 差异点：区别于趋势跟踪，反转交易捕捉的是反共识回归力（如 2020 年原油期货跌至负值后的暴力 反弹）。 二、极端情绪识别体系（反转交易触发条件） 针对 "利用极端情绪进行反转交易" 的策略框架，结合行为金融学与量化工具，构建从信号识别到实战 落地的完整解决方案： 1. 量化指标三维验证 一、反转交易的核心逻辑：情绪极点即价值拐点 · 流动性：港元汇率脱离弱兑换保证 → 无危机 · 政策：中国防疫优化 + 美股加息放缓预期 → 确认反转买点→ 3 个月内恒指反弹 40% 从估值层面来看，过度悲观的买入信号包括 PB <历史 10% 分位、股息率> 无风险利率 150%；过度乐 观的卖出信号包括 PE > 历史 90% 分位、PEG > 2.5。 资金层面上，过度悲观时，融资余额较峰值缩水 60%+、VIX > 40 是买入信号；过度乐观时，单日换手 率 > 10%、新股首日涨幅 > 300% 是卖出信号。 群体层 ...

免责声明 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 近年来 申万宏源证券与上海银行 建立了良好的合作关系 ，本次 债券的 成功发行彰显了我司强大 的资本市场销售实力，各部门积极协调配合，助力发行人票面利率创历史新低，得到了发行人的高 度评价和充分认可，也是申万宏源深耕上海区域的又一丰硕成果，对于我司持续深耕长三角地区债 券市场、加强重点区域覆盖力度具有重要意义。展望未来，申万宏源证券 将继续充分发挥在金融市 场的专业优势，持续完善科创债券综合服务体系，积极探索债券市场 "科技板"各项实践，共同助 力构建科创金融新生态，为建设科技强国贡献更多的金融力量 。 近期， 由申万宏源证券 作为联席主承销商 的 "上海银行股份有限公司2025年第一期 科技创新债券"成功发行，本期债券发行规模 50 亿元，发行期限 3 年，票面利率 1.67 % 。本期债券的募集资金将投向《金融 "五篇大文章"总体统计制度（试行）》 中规定的科创领域 。 上海银行是国内 20家系统重要性银行之一，整体实力位居城商行前列 。 近年来，上海银行综合实 力不断增强、发展品质稳步提升。目前总资产已超 3万亿元，年营收超500亿元、盈利超200 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution, risk-return profile, and market role of floating-rate financial bonds in China, highlighting their significance in optimizing the market interest rate transmission mechanism and promoting green finance initiatives [2][8]. Group 1: Development and Market Analysis of Floating-Rate Financial Bonds - The floating-rate bond market in China began in 1995 and has undergone three significant expansion phases, with a notable decline in issuance scale since 2022 due to falling interest rates. As of June 27, 2025, the total outstanding floating-rate bonds amounted to 514.7 billion yuan, with financial floating-rate bonds constituting the majority at 395 billion yuan [7][12]. - The current floating-rate financial bonds are primarily linked to the DR007 (51%) and the 1-year LPR (39%), reflecting a dual characteristic of short-term monetary market rates and medium to long-term financing costs [13][14]. - The secondary market for floating-rate bonds has been sluggish, with monthly trading volumes dropping to around 50 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.12% of the total bond market transactions [14][18]. Group 2: Pricing Analysis and Risk Attributes - The pricing of floating-rate bonds follows the principle that the current coupon equals the benchmark interest rate plus a fixed spread. This structure provides significant resistance to interest rate risk, as the coupon can adjust in line with market rates, resulting in lower net price volatility compared to fixed-rate bonds [22][23]. - Empirical analysis shows that during periods of rising benchmark rates, floating-rate bonds exhibit a smaller decline in net price compared to similar fixed-rate bonds, indicating their superior performance in such conditions [27][28]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Roles of Floating-Rate Bonds - For investors, floating-rate bonds offer a natural yield enhancement effect during rising interest rate phases, serving as a robust risk-hedging tool. They are less sensitive to interest rate changes, making them suitable for managing valuation volatility [30]. - For issuers and the bond market, the dual issuance of fixed and floating-rate bonds enhances funding options and attracts diverse capital sources. This approach maximizes fundraising efficiency and meets varying investor demands, thereby improving overall market liquidity [31]. - The "floating-rate green bond" model aligns with green finance policies, enhancing environmental benefit disclosures and attracting ESG investments, supported by recent regulatory initiatives promoting green bond development [31].

Wind数据显示，从1月1日至6月25日，申万银行指数累计涨幅达到15.77%。从个股来看，工商银行、农 业银行、建设银行等30多只银行股在6月26日创下今年以来新高，占比超八成。 截至6月26日，在A股总市值排名前十名的上市公司中，出现了五家上市银行的身影。其中，工商银行 位居A股总市值第一名，市值高达2.70万亿元人民币。自2022年以来，工商银行股价从4元/股涨至7.76 元/股，涨幅超80%。 曾经不被市场看好的银行股，为何在这两年突然走牛了？业内分析认为，一方面源自银行板块盈利平 稳，但此前估值较低，所以板块存在价值回归的动能。数据显示，截至2025年5月底，中证银行指数市 净率（PB）仅为0.67倍，低于过去十年67%的时间。 出品 | 华博商业评论 邮箱 | hbsypl2023@163.com 2025年以来，在低迷的A股市场，银行股一骑绝尘，让不少投资者只能望洋兴叹。 另一方面，随着银行存款利率和银行理财产品预期收益率持续走低，部分投资者秉持着"存钱不如买银 行股"的理念加大了对银行股的资产配置。当前中证银行指数近12个月股息率达6.4%，显著高于1.7%左 右的十年期国债收益率。以工行为例 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the balance between idealism and realism in investment management, highlighting that achieving ideal outcomes requires addressing real-world challenges [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is rooted in value investing, aiming to help more people achieve financial success through this approach [7]. - The gap between ideal and reality is acknowledged, with the understanding that while ideals may be distant, practical solutions must be found to bridge this gap [5][6]. - The focus is on making ideals a reality rather than allowing them to remain unattainable [6]. Group 2: Performance Evaluation - Performance evaluation is not solely based on quantitative metrics like net asset value growth but also includes client experience and satisfaction [7][10]. - The goal is to increase the proportion of clients who earn money, with ongoing exploration of what constitutes "doing well" in investment management [7][10]. - The anxiety regarding future performance and client trust is acknowledged, emphasizing the need for consistent results to build and maintain trust [9][10]. Group 3: Market Perspective - The discussion includes insights on the banking sector, particularly regarding interest margins, which have been narrowing but may experience short-term recovery due to recent changes in deposit interest rates [31][32]. - The investment strategy for banking stocks is based on a long-term perspective rather than short-term trends, with a focus on acceptable pricing despite ongoing challenges [32][33]. Group 4: Decision-Making Process - The decision-making process for investments is described as an intersection of price and understanding, where both elements must align for a purchase to be justified [26][28]. - The importance of thorough research and understanding of market conditions is emphasized, particularly in relation to emerging sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [26][28]. Group 5: Strategy and Individuality - Investment strategies are not ranked as better or worse; rather, their effectiveness depends on the individual investor's characteristics and goals [17][18]. - The alignment between a fund manager's strategy and their personal attributes is crucial for achieving successful outcomes [19][20].

免责 声 明 2025年6月11日，由申万宏源证券担任主承销商的"华夏银行股份有限公司2025年 科技创新债券(第一期)"成功发行，本期债券发行规模100亿元，期限5年，票面利率 1.78%，创下华夏银行金融债最低票面利率，是目前市场发行规模最大的5年期商业 银行科技创新债券！ 近年以来，华夏银行强化顶层设计与战略协同，明确提出打造科技金融特色，不断加 大对科技型中小企业、高新技术企业、专精特新企业、国家技术创新示范企业、制造 业单项冠军企业等的信贷支持。本期债券的成功发行，有助于增强发行人在科技创新 领域的金融服务能力，赋能实体经济高质量发展，展现发行人在服务科技自立自强的 新征程中的国有金融机构担当。 本期债券系我司首次与发行人建立债券业务合作关系，发行结果获得了发行人高度认 可，进一步夯实了申万宏源证券与发行人的合作基础，提升了公司在科技创新债券领 域的影响力。未来，公司将持续加大对国家重大发展战略的贯彻落实，扎实做好"五篇 大文章"，践行金融央企使命担当。 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 ...