Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc is experiencing slight appreciation against the US dollar, influenced by recent economic data and trade tariffs imposed by the US on Swiss goods [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a 0.1% increase in June, indicating a slight upward trend but still close to negative territory [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider lowering interest rates below zero later this year due to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8042 and is currently trading at 0.8055, reflecting a 0.15% increase [1] - The exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 0.7871, currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.7976 [1] - The upper Bollinger Band is at 0.8065, while the lower band is at 0.7887, indicating reduced volatility and a market in a consolidation phase [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariffs - The US has imposed a surprising 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, which is higher than previous signals from the Trump administration, potentially impacting Swiss exports [1] - The appreciation of the Swiss franc is reducing demand for Swiss export products, including pharmaceuticals and luxury watches [1]

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact the Swiss economy, particularly affecting its export-driven sectors [1] Economic Impact - The Swiss government is currently analyzing the situation following the announcement of the tariffs [1] - The estimated reduction in the Swiss economy due to these tariffs is approximately 0.6% [1] - If pharmaceutical products, currently exempt, are included in the tariff, the downward pressure on the economy will increase substantially [1] Growth Projections - Despite the tariffs, the Swiss economy is projected to continue growing, although at a significantly slower rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's inflation rate has increased in June but remains close to deflation levels, indicating a potential for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates below zero later this year [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The annual inflation rate in Switzerland for June rose by 0.1% compared to the same month last year, while the inflation rate for May was -0.1% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects this slight increase, suggesting a modest recovery in price levels [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to zero last month to curb demand for the Swiss franc [1] - The rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc has negatively impacted demand for Swiss exports, including luxury watches and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 3: Currency Impact - Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss franc has appreciated nearly 15% against the US dollar, leading to lower prices for imported goods and services [1] - This currency strength has contributed to a downward spiral in inflation rates within Switzerland [1]

奢侈品行业正面临着严峻的挑战。关税威胁只是冰山一角，美元贬值和金价飙升正在对欧洲奢侈品行业构成多重打击。 自4月2日以来，美元兑欧元已下滑约5%。这对欧洲奢侈品公司构成了严峻问题，因为这些公司的业务通常在美元强势、欧元走弱时表现最佳。 欧洲奢侈品行业遭遇多重危机 面对这种复杂局面，不同奢侈品牌的表现将出现明显分化。 像Chanel或Christian Dior这样迎合最富有消费者的品牌，或许可以通过提高价格而不会损害需求。上周，Hermès表示将于5月1日在美国提高价 格，将关税的全部负担转移给美国消费者。 但对于像Gucci这样实力较弱的品牌来说，提价可能会让顾客望而却步。 美元走弱还会影响美国消费者的海外购物意愿。根据Bernstein奢侈品分析师Luca Solca的数据，美国奢侈品消费者约有20%的购买发生在海外。由 于区域价格差异和退税政策，同一款Louis Vuitton手袋在巴黎购买比在纽约便宜近三分之一。 在疫情期间，奢侈品牌通过过快提价消费者损害了其业务。根据咨询公司Bain & Co.的估计，2022年至2024年期间，奢侈品销量下降超过五分之 一。 这些奢侈品牌在意大利和法国生产产品，因 ...